1 Bet Today
6 Previews
3 Mini Previews
5 Options


Today's Bet


Perth 6.00

BILLFROMTHEBAR 11/4 Win Bet

BE MY DEPUTY 4/1 -Saver Bet


* For every £10 you stake
* £8 win on BILLFROMTHEBAR 11/4
* £2 win on BE MY DEPUTY 4/1
* There are only 3 horses in this race
* We are betting 2 of the 3
* The other is the odds on favourite
* He could easily win and beat us
* I just think we can get him beaten
* If for any reason the favourite doesn't run
* Then obviously if you can cancel the bet do so



T o d a y 's M e s s a g e

The opening day of Goodwood and it has been
raining there this morning so I am expecting it
to be quite soft. Three main previews here and
some mini previews. I have left Galway alone
and I don't have any National Hunt work apart
from a very interesting Novice Hurdle at Perth.

My problem at Goodwood is I like some races
but it's hard to know what level of confidence
to have at the meeting with big fields and so
much heavy rain today. I could easily have a
bet here and miss a gem elsewhere so this is
both an exciting & dangerous meeting today.
I'm not keen on Yarmouth as ever and it looks
to me like a day with 5 potential oppurtunities.




Today's 5 Options


Goodwood 1.55

NABUCCO 8/1 Win Bet
CLON BRULEE 8/1 Saver
WHISPERING WARRIOR 8/1 Saver

This is probably too hard and the staking a little too
complicated to make todays bet. For the record I am
having 80% of my stake on Nabucco and having both
Clon Brulee and Whispering Warrior to 10% stakes.


Goodwood 2.30

ANTICIPATED 7/2 Win Bet
AMBIANCE 6/1 Saver Bet

My Molecomb Stats are completely clear and they
rule out every horse bar these two. Now these two
are very much unclear profiles as they both ran in
France recently. No idea if this will be advantageous
or a problem. Covering both options I can just hope.


Goodwood 3.05

PRODUCER 9/2 Win Bet
GARSWOOD 5/1 Saver Bet

I felt this pair had the leading chance. Had Garswood
won the Jersey then he'd be a statistical maximum so
as he only managed 4th he is an important saver. The
favourite may not run and that could mess prices up.


Beverley 3.25 - JOMARI 11/2 Win Bet

This race has a horrible frame to it but it's also one of
my favourite races of the week with a very interesting
angle in the race. Very much a race I should consider
doing business in. I like JOMARI a lot but he is one of
those horses that will have to get his fractions right to
win. I think he will make all but my biggest worry has
to be that we have a 7lbs claimer on


Perth 6.00

BILLFROMTHEBAR 11/4 Win Bet

BE MY DEPUTY 4/1 Saver Bet

My statistics in 3m Novice hurdles clearly show
that the odds on favourite is vulnerable and they
leave me in no doubt about what horse to bet in
the race. The only doubts are these statistics are
based on a small sample size of races which is
making the decision in this race quite a difficult
one. It is very also annoying I can't rule out this
3rd favourite Be My Deputy despite being a 8yo
chaser. I could beat the favourite only to find he
comes and beats us. Messy framed race but the
stats are quite persuasive about this selection.


In the end the decision is made and I've gone
with BILLFROMTHEBAR and a saver as there
is only one horse to beat. I will be sick if the
Beverley horse wins so I intend to bet him as
equal stakes to ease the pain if he does win.



M o n d a y s R e v i e w

Glad I did the message yesterday as the main bet
I suggested backing won. It was based on a good
negative but I wasn't certain that SAVE THE BEES
was the right alternative. Fortunately I chose right
on this occasion but I could easily have gone with
another horse. Worked out in the end. Pleased to
have avoided Wolverhampton as well looking at
the results. The only Windsor bet won albeit very
short. Galway wasn't a disaster but that's about it.
Overall the message worked so worth sending it.

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P r o f i l e s & P r e v i e w s


G o o d w o o d 1.55

6/1 Fast Or Free, 8/1 Blue Surf, 8/1 Nabucco
8/1 Whispering Warrior, 10/1 Clon Brulee, 12/1 Labarinto
14/1 Fennell Bay, 16/1 Expert Fighter 16/1 Reset City
16/1 Spirit Of The Law, 16/1 Tepmokea
16/1 Viewpoint, 20/1 Calaf, 20/1 Strictly Silver
25/1 Hi There, 33/1 Heddwyn.

* This is a 10f handicap for horses rated 0-99
* Lets start with the DRAW
* Since 2011 there were 14 races here with 13 + runners
* Winners were drawn 16 5 16 13 17 16 6 6 10 16 6 7 9 10
* Horses drawn 1-2-3-4 are 0-51 in these 14 races
* These 3 horses could have troublesome draws
* CALAF -EXPERT FIGHTER -HEDDWYN
* FENNELL BAY is now in one of the lowest 4 stall positions
* FENNELL BAY is an exposed 4yo with 32 runs
* No exposed 4yo has won this race
* There are a couple that have won similar races elsewhere
* The most exposed was 27 runs (Dunaskin)
* With many runs this year and a recent run I respect him
* He has never won at 9f or 10f before though
* He has also never won from this current rating before
* He could pop up but I do prefer other horses
* Happy to oppose those 4 badly drawn horses

* Lets get a sense of what's been winning this race
* Past winners were aged as follows
* 4 4 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 4 4 4 4
* The last 20 winners ran within 59 days
* The last 20 winners were Male
* The last 15 winners had at least 8 career starts
* There are 143 similar races in July and August
* Horses aged 7 or more are 3-156

* Two of the 3 winners aged 7 + came from 12f
* TEPMOKEA and RESET CITY do the same thing
* RESET CITY doesn't look good enough to win
* Not when exposed and only Class 4 backclass
* After 25 races she hasn't ran within 2 grades of this race
* FAST OR FREE is a 4yo seasonal debutant
* 4 year olds racing first time out were 3-31
* All 3 winners had between 7 and 12 career starts
* FAST OR FREE only has 4 career starts
* Two of the 3 had much less weight than him
* Coming from a 3yo handicap he isn't safe
* Not many in this race come up in distance
* HI THERE does and he's a bit exposed to do that
* Has to prove he stays and cope with this class of race
* LABARINTO has just 1 run this season
* That's a tough ask for a horse with 9st 10lbs
* Not a negative but his profile does worry me
* SPIRIT OF THE LAW comes from a Class 4 race
* I felt he was a bit exposed to be doing that
* VIEWPOINT is 4 and has a very recent run
* Not many ran within the last week as he does
* The few that did all had more runs that year
* They all ran far better than he did last time
* BLUE SURF looks laid out for the race
* He is 4 and down from a 12f handicap
* Worries me has just 2 runs this year and 38 days off
* 3 of the last 23 winners of this race came from 12f
* They all had at least 3 runs this season
* Only one of them was a 4yo and he had Group form
* I wanted another run this season for safety
* He might pop up but his profile is a bit lacking
* STRICTLY SILVER is also a 4yo down from 12f
* I wasn't sold on his profile with 16 runs
* STRICTLY SILVER - I don't see him defying that mark

Possibles

* TEPMOKEA - Not keen on his age but he's in
* Down in trip he is like one past older winner
* May want it faster but has won on softer ground
* Don't think he will win but his profiles acceptable


* WHISPERING WARRIOR is an improving 4yo
* He won last time but in a much lower grade
* Last years winner had a similar profile though
* He is the right sort to be going up in class
* No track form but his profile is fine
* WHISPERING WARRIOR is shortlisted

* CLON BRULEE has a nice safe profile
* With 10 runs as a 4yo he fits in very nicely
* CLON BRULEE is very similar to 3 winners
* One of those won this race in 2004 (Coat Of Honour)
* Main problem could be traffic problems

* NABUCCO is 4 and won last time out
* All 4yo last time winners in this race had 9 + runs
* NABUCCO has just 7 runs
* I looked at all similar handicaps at every track
* Looked at 4 year olds who won handicaps last time
* Winners had 9 10 9 8 7 11 10 16 27 16 14 20 runs
* The horse with 7 runs (Ask The Butler) had Group form
* The horse with 8 runs (Sirvino) had more runs that year
* NABUCCO isn't perfect but is close enough to consider
* He'd have been stronger with a couple more runs though
* I think his trainer makes up for these worries

Selection

NABUCCO 8/1 Win Bet to 80% of Stake

CLON BRULEE 8/1 Saver to 10% of stake

WHISPERING WARRIOR 8/1 Saver to 10% of stake




G o o d w o o d 2.30

3/1 Supplicant, 7/2 Anticipated, 4/1 Reroute
5/1 Ambiance, 12/1 Brown Sugar, 12/1 Sleeper King
14/1 Justice Day, 14/1 Majestic Alexander, 25/1 Meritocracy.

The Molecomb's a Group 3 over 5f for 2 year olds.
It is quite incredible that between 1988 and 2012
this race never went to a horse that came directly
from Royal Ascot. For 25 years in a row no horses
won this coming from Ascot and that included 29
that tried many of whom were favourite. Reasons
for this could be that there isn't enough time for a
horse to Peak at Ascot and then Peak again here
six weeks later. This year this stat will be tested.

* SUPPLICANT comes from Ascot
* REROUTE comes from Ascot
* SLEEPER KING comes from Ascot
* JUSTICE DAY comes from Ascot

* This is a Speed Test and every winner came from 5f
* Horses in this race that come from a 6f race are awful
* Since 1991 all 49 horses from 6f races have lost
* BROWN SUGAR has this to overcome
* No horse has won beaten 10 + lengths last time
* MERITOCRACY has this to overcome
* MERITOCRACY does come from the best trial race
* He didn't run well enough in that race though
* Pre 2003 females did best in this race
* However in 2003 the weight conditions changed
* Fillies were only allowed 3lbs rather than 5lbs
* Since then Males have had the better record
* Since 2003 the sex of winners was M M M F F M M M M M
* One of the 2 female winners was a Top class Group 1 winner
* MAJESTIC ALEXANDER is a filly when colts are stronger
* REROUTE is also a filly when males did better recently
* Coming from Ascot there is enough evidence to oppose her
* By Acclamation she may not like the ground
* MAJESTIC ALEXANDER doesn't quite look good enough
* SUPPLICANT is respected but he comes from Ascot
* That means none of the last 25 winners were like him

Shortlist

* ANTICIPATED passes all my main angles
* That said I am ignoring the fact he comes from 5.5f
* It's not 6f so I am assuming this isn't a big problem
* He ran in France 9 days ago
* We don't know how he will come out of that race

* AMBIANCE has a virtually similar profile
* He comes from the same French race last time
* How that affects both these horses is unknown

Selection


ANTICIPATED 7/2 Win Bet

AMBIANCE 6/1 Saver Bet







Yarmouth 2.40

* I would have selected RED DAKOTA
* Not a confident bet just the best profile that's all





G o o d w o o d 3.05

9/4 Aljamaaheer, 5/1 Producer, 6/1 Fencing, 6/1 Garswood
8/1 Professor, 10/1 Caspar Netscher, 12/1 Krypton Factor
16/1 Pastoral Player, 20/1 Libranno, 25/1 Red Jazz
33/1 Boom And Bust, 66/1 Monsieur Chevalier.

* The Lennox Stakes is a Group 2 race over 7f
* Horses aged 6 or more had a 0-24 record in this race
* BOOM AND BUST fails that and looks wrong
* MONSIEUR CHEVALIER fails that and is outclassed
* PASTORAL PLAYER fails that and is too exposed
* CASPAR NETSCHER is a seasonal debutant
* No horse has won this first time out
* Thats clearly a big worry and his profile is unsafe
* He has upgraded stables since last year a big help
* He has had 16 runs already though
* That seems a lot for a seasonal debutant
* Not the biggest of horses I wouldnt risk him on soft

* Horses that came from 6f or shorter are 2-30
* In 13 past renewals only 2 winners came up in distance
* Both horses were 5 year olds
* Horses aged 3 and 4 coming from 6f or shorter were 0-18
* PROFESSOR fails this as a 3yo from 6f
* He has more runs than all past 3yo winners
* KRYPTON FACTOR is 5 and comes from 6f
* Both winners doing that were 5 year olds
* They both had 11 runs though and he has 31
* Thats far more than any winner in the past had
* Only 3 past winners had more than 14 previous runs
* LIBRANNO is too exposed for me with 309 runs
* FENCING is a 4yo absent 73 days
* No horse aged 4 or more won this with more than 45 days off
* FENCING has fewer runs this season as well
* He could find this 7f a bit sharp but should be fine
* Could win but absence weakens his profile

Possibles

* ALJAMAAHEER is an unexposed 4 year old
* No huge stumbling blocks statistically
* Only 1 winner aged 4 dropped from a mile though
* That horse (Nayyir 1992) was less exposed
* ALJAMAAHEER has to prove 7f suits as well as 8f
* He could also be vulnerable if the ground's soft

Shortlist

* PRODUCER is a 4yo with 18 starts
* The 2011 winner was a 4yo with 17 runs
* Thats a good match and he has track form
* PRODUCER has a good solid profile
* Should go well if he can handle the ground

* GARSWOOD is a 3 year old with 7 runs
* There were 5 winning 3 year olds in this race
* All 5 of these were absent over 40 days
* GARSWOOD matches that profile
* The 5 winners aged 3 had 7 6 6 6 6 5 runs
* GARSWOOD with 7 runs looks ideal
* They all had under 4 runs that year like him
* Three of these came from the Jersey Stakes like him
* Observatory (2000) Tariq (2007) Strong Suit (2007)
* Those 3 winners did win the Jersey though
* GARSWOOD was only 4th in that race
* That does worry me and he isn't perfect
* He is closer to perfection than most others though
* He also has form on the ground and the track
* PRODUCER and GARSWOOD stand out to me.

Selection

PRODUCER 9/2 Win Bet

GARSWOOD 5/1 Saver Bet





B e v e r l e y 3.25

6/4 Jebulani, 2/1 Halfwaytocootehill, 6/1 Jomari
8/1 Santa Fe Stinger, 14/1 Duchess Of Dreams
25/1 Ground Ginger, 33/1 Threepence.

* This is a selling handicap for 3 year olds over 12f.
* THREEPENCE looks outclassed and comes from 8f
* Not overkeen on horses from 8f races here
* GROUND GINGER also comes up in distance from 8f
* He doesn't offer enough
* DUCHESS OF DREAMS was well beaten over 11f last time
* Not the strongest of profiles for a filly
* HALFWAYTOCOOTEHILL was beaten 25 lengths last time
* It's not a disastrous profile but there are better
* I'm not sure he fully stays 12f and have mentioned this before
* I wont be surprised if he wins but there's a better angle
* There is a Beverley Handicap over 2m 8days ago
* Horses that ran in this race have a 4-14 record
* That race provided the 1999, 2004 ,2005, 2007 winners
* That race also provided the runner up in 1999 and 2010
* That race also provided the 3rd in 2002 2009 2012

* JEBULANI - JOMARI - SANTA FE STINGER do this
* 3 of the 4 winners doing this were well beaten last time
* JEBULANI did the best of these 3 coming 2nd last time
* That's not necessarily the best profile
* With 6 runs and 3 this year I wouldnt have minded more runs
* The 4 winners from this 2m race had more
* They had 9 8 7 11 runs and 5 4 3 4 runs that season

* SANTA FE STINGER was 6th in that race
* She badly missed the break as well
* I made her a negative 8 days ago
* She gets great respect coming from this race
* However she has had just 5 runs and 2 this season

* JOMARI was 5th in that same race last time
* He set a fast pace and probably didn't get home
* His Sire hasn't had a winner over 15f or more yet
* With 11 runs and 6 this year he pleases me greatly

Selection

JOMARI 9/2

Win Bet





G o o d w o o d 3.40

* This is a 14f Class 2 Handicap for all aged horses
* Not a race I want to focus on as it's too open
* Just a few little angles which may narrow it down a bit
* Every winner ran within 45 days
* Horses aged 6 and over are 1-47 in this race
* Past winners had the following career starts
* 11 18 19 11 11 8 10 17 10 8 15 10 18 13 13 3 5
* The last 15 winners all had between 8 and 19 runs
* No 4 year old came down from a 2m 4f race




G o o d w o o d 4.15

2/1 Sacha Park, 4/1 Brazos, 8/1 Lyn Valley
8/1 Mystique Rider, 14/1 Muir Lodge, 14/1 Munfallet
16/1 Fiftyshadesofgrey, 16/1 Retrofit, 16/1 Under The Moon
16/1 Upholland, 20/1 Blurred Vision, 20/1 Fyrecracker
20/1 Morally Bankrupt.

* This is a 2yo maiden over 6f for Male horses
* Ignore all unraced horses as none have won since 1998
* This field is too strong to expect an unraced winner
* Ignore horses from Auction Maidens
* Ignore horses from 5f races with 2 + runs
* MUNFALLET didn't do enough for me last time
* I felt the same about RETROFIT
* This is probably a 4 horse race

Shortlist

* MYSTIQUE RIDER isn't unlike the 2010 winner
* LYN VALLEY - Stable won with similar type in 2009
* BRAZOS - His numbers tell you he should go very close
* SACHA PARK sets the standard but has had 4 runs
* Only 1 past winner had 4 runs a 50/1 outsider
* He has had excuses and must go close
* He could fight off improvers but his price is short
* If I went with SACHA PARK it'd only be in a split stake bet
* BRAZOS - I'm going to look elsewhere drawn widest
* Final selection has to be a guess really

Selection

LYN VALLEY 7/1 Win Bet

SACHA PARK 2/1 Saver Bet





G o o d w o o d 4.50

7/1 Desert Revolution, 8/1 Captain Cat
10/1 Bancnuanaheireann, 10/1 Copperwood
10/1 Democretes, 12/1 Ascription, 12/1 Country Western
12/1 Jack´s Revenge, 14/1 Head Of Steam
14/1 Juvenal, 14/1 Silverheels, 14/1 Snooky
14/1 Uppercut, 16/1 Albaqaa, 16/1 Aussie Reigns
16/1 Kyllachy Star, 25/1 Bronze Prince
33/1 Capaill Liath, 33/1 Dellbuoy, 50/1 Cocozza.

* This is a Mile Handicap
* Too difficult to commit to the race
* Just a few quick points
* DESERT REVOLUTION has just 2 runs
* If I look at Statistics for this race then he fails
* No winner has won this when so inexperienced
* However look at these races at other tracks
* Then there is a very smart 5-11 record from these types
* DESERT REVOLUTION has to be shortlisted
* Since the stalls were renumbered I looked at 8f races here
* So far horses drawn 14 or higher are 0-39 since 2011
* I would avoid the higher drawn horses
* I would want at least 3 runs this season
* Avoid horses beaten 10 + lengths last time
* I'd rather not have horses aged 8 or more
* I'd rather not have an absence of more than 7 weeks
* I picked 4 out that looked reasonably solid

Shortlist

* SILVERHEELS - BANCNUANAHEIREANN
* HEAD OF STEAM - DESERT REVOLUTION



P e r t h 6.00

8/11 Otto The Great, 3/1 Be My Deputy, 100/30 Billfromthebar

* This is a 3m Novice Hurdle
* There are 46 similar races at this time of year

* BE MY DEPUTY is 8 and comes from a Chase
* I don't mind that profile but have just 1 problem
* All older winners from Chases had more runs this year
* BE MY DEPUTY is a bit short of runs
* I would see him as a neutral and he could win
* May be tough to beat two last time out hurdle winners


* BILLFROMTHEBAR is 6 and just won a maiden hurdle

* OTTO THE GREAT is 5 and just won a Novice Hurdle

* Interesting running these profiles through the 46 races
* Lets look at 5 year olds winning Novice Hurdles
* There were 4 horses with this profile finishing PU 2 5 7
* All 4 lost and started 6/4 10/11 12/1 15/8

* Not lets look at 6 year olds winning maiden hurdles
* 6 horses had this profile finishing W W 4 2 W 3
* BILLFROMTHEBAR has this profile
* It's based on a small sample size admittedly
* It's clear BILLFROMTHEBAR has the best profile

* Look at these 46 Novice Hurdles over 3m

* Horses aged 6 are 16-100 a percentage of 16%

* Horses aged 5 are 6-73 a percentage of 8.21%

* Horses aged 6 are twice as likely to win as 5yo's

* Horses from Novice Hurdles are 6-71 which is 8.45%

* Horses from Maiden Hurdles are 18-126 which is 14.28%

* Horses from Maiden Hurdles score far better

* This is why BILLFROMTHEBAR comes out best
* He's a better age and comes from a better type of race

Throw in the fact OTTO THE GREAT may like it faster
and has had a wind problem and rain is due all afternoon.


Selection

It is never easy to oppose a Nicky Henderson hotpot
especially when you have a small sample size and
I won't be surprised if he wins the race but there is
absolutely no doubt BILLFROMTHEBAR's profile is
better. He probably does have to improve on form
to win the race but he is odds against and I've just
shown the choice is made for me on their profiles.

BILLFROMTHEBAR 11/4

Win Bet

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