T o d a y' s B e t


No Bet Today





Message Content


This is a much bigger message than I thought it
would be. I have two horses in Sires & Systems.
I have reviewed yesterday and October as well.

There are a surprising 13 previews. My attitude
with the All Weather is simple. I will dip in and
out as I see fit. Today I have two races. Lingfield
has a lot of impossible maidens and handicaps.
They will offer bets when they offer them. Its all
familiar ground and I will take this day by day.

The National Hunt is slightly different. Obviously
we have many horses in many races that haven't
run this year. Everyone is still feeling their way a
bit with the Jumps. I'm in a strange position this
year. I have more capabilities statistically than I
have ever had over the jumps. I am now in the
position to look much more forensically at these
races than I was used to in the past. I find myself
with more weapons and armoury at my disposal
but the price I pay is that these races take much
longer to do and it slows me down a great deal.

I'm just adapting to this at the moment. I have a
considerable more National Hunt work done on
this day that I could ever dream about doing in
past years. It has meant I haven't had a chance
to even look at the Kempton meeting tonight.

Having restructured recently I am looking for a
bet about 3-5 times a week. Some days though
like today are quite complicated to do and this
feels an interesting educational message which
will tell me plenty about how safe certain races
are at this time of year. A hard day for staking.





Potential Bets from the Message

This is very much a suck it and see message.
I don't see a bet I want to advise on the day.
May have overcooked the message a bit as
it may be longer than ideal. Best described
as a Cherry Picking message today. I'd like
to see SENDIYM 6/1 win the 3.30 as he gets
a mention in Sires and Systems. Hard race.
Everything about the message suggests no
strong bets and no more than interest bets.



Y e s t e r d a y s R e v i e w

The message started off well but the important bet
was the last and SWALEDALE LAD failed to run his
race. He just didn't cope with the race and despite
going well for a long way he folded quickly. It was
annoying but at 3/1 only one in four should win so
it should be no surprise. I didn't want to risk a bet
on MY BOY PADDY who finished a close 2nd after
looking the winner. He may just have needed that
run. I think he is 20lbs better than his rating but he
ran too well really to get a big price next time out.



O c t o b e r R e v i e w



It's the end of the month so just a quick look back.
I have made a couple of changes recently and it's
possible there could be more. I think I lost my way
a bit in October. The cards were savage as usual
but when I went though my messages I could not
thinking they had lost some shape and become a
lot less clear. Too many were messy. Part of this
is down to workload and taking breaks. The Flat
is about 35 weeks long and my longest break has
been two days in a row. Most people would have
four weeks off during that time. That and what is
traditionally savage meetings just made me stale
in October. The bets we had weren't that bad but
it wasn't impressive and neither were messages.

October Bets (Options)

Number of Bets 21
Winners 3
Stake Returns 4
Losers 14

Not enough winners there but the 3 we did have
won at 14/1 4/1 and 11/4 so there was no loss on
the month. I haven't totted it up yet but it might
even be a winning month. It's Just a poor strike
rate and unimpressive messages. I need to get
some structure back to messages and a routine
of regular bets now and I have just started that.




S I R E S AND S Y S T E M S

Yesterday I gave a system out but the horse
did not run. I said I'd let you know when we
got another from the system and that's today.

Sedgefield 3.30 - SENDIYM

* October and November
* Novice Handicap Chases over 2m
* Male horses aged 6
* Winning a Novice Handicap Chase last time
* Running within 6 weeks
* There were 3 horses that had this profile
* They finished W W W
* SENDIYM has this profile and is a Positive


Sedgefield 1.30 - HONOURABLE GENT

* Horses sired by GENTLEMAN'S DEAL
* This sire has a poor record on all codes
* His National Hunt runners are 1-52 so far
* The only winner was HONOURABLE GENT
* I felt he was lucky when he won that race
* He runs today in a better race
* HONOURABLE GENT - I couldn't bet him from this sire







P R O F I L E S AND P R E V I E W S



S t r a t f o r d 1.10

2/5 Easy Beesy, 11/2 Brass Monkey, 8/1 Hector´s House
14/1 Caught By Witness, 20/1 Trakeur, Laughing Game
33/1 Best Bette, 33/1 Guns Of Love.

* EASY BEESY is very short but should win
* BRASS MONKEY should managed a place
* You could bet him place only at better odds
* Not a race for big stakes and I wont bother



S e d g e f i e l d 1.30

This Handicap Hurdle is really not my sort of race as
we can't have know enough about most of these. I'm
opposing HONOURABLE GENT in Sires and Systems
because of his sire. There are no past renewals and
whilst I could take a guess it would only be that. I'd
avoid the 4 year olds. I can't drum up any enthusiasm
for IKTIVIEW hammered in a flat Claimer just 12 days
ago on his first run in months. I don't like OPERATEUR
much. Maybe following the market is the best idea of
fluking the winner. DYNAMIC DRIVE is a positive just
because he has recent runs but I don't know just how
important a recent race would be so I'm leaving this.

No Selection




S t r a t f o r d 1.40

3/1 Advisor, 3/1 Isola Bella, 3/1 Persian Herald
7/1 Cash For Steel, 12/1 Mister Fantastic
14/1 Edlomond, 14/1 Ponte Di Rosa, 20/1 Haling Park
20/1 Little Bit Lively, 20/1 Stadium Of Light
33/1 Lara Dora.

* This is a selling hurdle over 2m 3f
* There are only 20 similar races at this time of year
* Horses aged 4 have a 1-32 record
* Fillies aged 4 have a 1-9 record
* ISOLA BELLA is a 4yo filly
* The one winning 4yo filly had a 17 day absence
* ISOLA BELLA has a 54 day absence
* Thats the dilemma. I don't want her myself
* Lots of unknown factors here
* MISTER FANTASTIC has to prove fitness
* ADVISOR is just modest and hard to read
* He is capable of winning this on a good day
* Quite how you predict that I don't know
* PERSIAN HERALD is my choice e/w
* Not keen he comes from 2m to be honest
* Recent winning runs count for a lot though




S e d g e f i e l d 2.00

11/4 Night In Milan, 9/2 Jeu De Roseau
9/2 One In A Milan, 11/2 Abnaki, 11/2 Howizee
15/2 Bourne.

* This is a 3m 3f handicap hurdle
* Only 11 of these races at this time of year
* They are quite rare so not much I can say
* It's a badly framed race we have to guess in
* None of the winners were aged 10 or more
* 10 of the 11 winners had recent runs
* Horses absent more than 6 weeks were 1-35
* I'd prefer a horse with a recent race myself
* NIGHT IN MILAN lacks a recent run
* ONE IN A MILAN lacks a recent run
* BOURNE - I don't see enough positives with topweight
* ABNAKI - Not for me after his last run over fences
* HOWIZEE and JEU DE ROSEAU end up shortlisted
* At least they have recent runs
* It's not a race I can work with statistically
* HOWIZEE just preferred in a tight race





L i n g f i e l d 2.20

5/2 Horsted Keynes, 4/1 Favourite Treat, 8/1 Capo Rosso
8/1 Indian Jack, 8/1 Noble Citizen, 12/1 Mia´s Boy
12/1 Naabegha, 14/1 Democretes, 16/1 Al´s Memory
20/1 Docofthebay, 25/1 Loyalty.

* This is a 7f handicap for 0-94 rated horses
* October and November have 220 similar races
* Lots of horses here lack a recent race
* I looked at horses absent 50 + days in 220 races
* Horses aged 5 or more absent 50 + days are 1-75
* Horses aged 6 or more absent 50 + days are 0-37
* This shows older horses rarely defy absences
* MIA´S BOY and DOCOFTHEBAY are 9 year olds
* Both absent several months I am against them
* NOBLE CITIZEN is out as an 8yo absent 63 days
* LOYALTY is absent too long age 6 and has no 7f form
* INDIAN JACK is 5 and absent 418 days
* FAVOURITE TREAT is 3 and has just 2 runs
* He comes from a maiden race
* I looked in 220 races for similar types
* Horses that won maidens last time out are 0-27
* FAVOURITE TREAT looks unsafe to me
* He is very inexperienced and my angles say no
* AL´S MEMORY doesn't have a great profile
* There are exposed 4yo winners from 6f races
* They all came from higher in the weights
* I don't like his draw either in Stall one
* There is a case he should be shortlisted
* I have decided it may not be his time of year
* CAPO ROSSO comes from a 3yo handicap with 17 runs
* I looked at 3yo's doing this with 13 + runs
* There were 7 winners but all ran within 18 days
* CAPO ROSSO faces a 32 day absence
* Those that ran more than 18 days ago were 0-46
* CAPO ROSSO desperately needed a recent run

Possibles

* NAABEGHA has positives and negatives
* The positive is he's the only horse with a recent run
* The negative is he comes from a 5f race
* There was one 6yo winning doing that
* He (Treasure Touch) ran better last time just 5 days before
* NAABEGHA isn't safe but he is the fittest horse

* HORSTED KEYNES is a 3 year old
* He has raced just once this season
* I looked at 3 year olds with 1 run this season
* There was a weak 1-40 record
* The 1 winner was Quick Wit winning this race in 2010
* He had 4 career starts and came from an 8f handicap
* HORSTED KEYNES has 3 runs from a 7f handicap
* HORSTED KEYNES is not a negative but neither a positive

* DEMOCRETES is 4 absent 54 days with 20 runs
* I looked at similar 4yo's and found a 2-60 record
* Neither were beaten as far as he was last time
* Not a strong profile but I wont rule him out
* He had a horrible draw last time at Ascot
* He'd win this on his 3rd last run at Newmarket
* With many negatives I'd keep him in mind


Selection

I think we need to buy this favourite out of the race
with a saver. This leads me to a split stake bet.

HORSTED KEYNES 11/10 - Half your stake to win

DEMOCRETES 14/1 - Half your stake to win






S e d g e f i e l d 2.30

4/1 Deise Dynamo, 4/1 Knight Pass
11/2 Timesawastin 13/2 Herdsman, 7/1 King Of The Wolds
15/2 See What Happens, 8/1 Balding Banker, 11/1 Porgy

This is a Novice Handicap Chase over 2m 4f.

I don't want DEISE DYNAMO. Horses coming from
Novice Hurdles last year as KING OF THE WOLDS
does are 0-17 so I'm going to ignore him as well.

This time last year KNIGHT PASS was favourite
for a Graded Hurdle. It's interesting David Pipe
sends him Novice Handicap Chasing. I looked
at all similar races. There are not that many as
it is a Class 3 race. I found 4 winners that came
from handicap hurdles last season. All 4 of them
had a lower official rating and therefore carried
less weight. They were all lighter raced hurdlers
as well. KNIGHT PASS is not a negative but has
a bit to prove. Maybe he should be a saver bet.

* KNIGHT PASS - I'd see him no better than a saver
* HERDSMAN - is shortlistable
* I'd have preferred fewer hurdle starts though
* HERDSMAN isn't quite right but not far away

* SEE WHAT HAPPENS - Neutral profile
* TIMESAWASTIN - Shortlisted. Potential selection
* BALDING BANKER - Shortlisted. Potential selection


Selection

BALDING BANKER Win Bet 6/1
TIMESAWASTIN Saver Bet 5/1




S t r a t f o r d 2.40

1/2 Snake Eyes, 5/1 Irish Cavalier, 10/1 Mission To Mars
12/1 West End, 14/1 Fergal Mael Duin, 14/1 Strollawaynow
25/1 Saudi Pearl, 50/1 No Routine, 50/1 Over My Head.

* This is a 2m Novice Hurdle.
* SNAKE EYES - Highly rated Henderson novice
* Profile fine. He should outclass these
* He did have breathing problems last year
* He has disappointed more than once
* I don't see much point in risking him at 1/2
* IRISH CAVALIER will appeal to many each way
* All I can say here is this
* His profile is find and no worse than the favourites
* I think you have a fair chance each way
* You will need SNAKE EYES to be a bit below form
* MISSION TO MARS's profile surprised me
* He is 4 comes from a recent maiden bumper
* He was beaten in that and has just 1 bumper start
* I was expecting a disastrous profile here
* I found 4 horses with this profile
* Two lost at 100/1
* Two won at 4/1 and 14/1
* They did win over 2m 1f and not 2m
* I still have to see him as a positive
* MISSION TO MARS could easily place
* IRISH CAVALIER could easily place
* I couldn't rule either out of even winning
* That puts me off taking odds on about SNAKE EYES
* The favourite should still win
* I think the value is probably in the place market
* IRISH CAVALIER or MISSION TO MARS
* Whichever is the biggest price to place is the bet




S e d g e f i e l d 3.00

9/4 Ballyglasheen, 9/4 Carlton Jack
11/2 Mr Bolt, 10/1 Herostatus, 12/1 Mr Utah
14/1 Monbeg, 14/1 Red Eyes,16/1 Granaruid.

* This is a Novice Handicap Hurdle over 2m 4f
* There are 164 similar races at this time of year
* BALLYGLASHEEN is a 3 year old
* I looked at 3 year olds in these 164 races
* I found a 0-25 record over 2m3f 2m 4f and 2m5f
* There were 3 that won over shorter
* There were 3 that won over further
* I looked at these 6 winners aged 3 over different trips
* They all had 3 3 1 2 3 3 previous hurdle runs
* BALLYGLASHEEN has 5 runs and isn't a good match
* None like him came from claiming races
* BALLYGLASHEEN- Doesn't offer me enough
* CARLTON JACK won a maiden hurdle last time
* If that had been a Novice Hurdle he'd be strong
* None won having just a maiden hurdle
* I can't justify making him the selection
* Rightly or wrongly my angles suggest we oppose these
* MR BOLT has a chance each way
* I wasn't completely convinced about him
* MONBEG will need to improve
* HEROSTATUS - I'd give him a chance
* MR UTAH comes from a recent maiden hurdle
* He was beaten in that race
* With 4 hurdle runs that's one of the safer profiles

Selection

I can only guess here. Not convinced I am on safe
ground opposing the market leaders but the profile
I liked best is probably just MR UTAH 7/1 each way.






S t r a t f o r d 3.10

3/1 Listen Boy, 4/1 Desperate Dex, 5/1 Milo Milan
11/2 Danandy, 13/2 Circus Of Dreams, 10/1 Very Stylish
12/1 Cornish Ice, 12/1 Thats Ben, 20/1 Lough Coi.

This is a 2m 7f Handicap Chase. Too much strength
in depth here. Not enough negatives. I can not even
rule out a 13yo debutant like DESPERATE DEX as we
have a similar winner (Victory Gunner) showing this
can be done. No real interest as a race. LISTEN BOY
is a favourite with a good profile as this explains.

* Horses aged 7
* Male horses
* Won a Novice Chase last time
* Seasonal debut today
* Under 4 previous Chase runs
* There were 6 horses with this profile
* They finished W 2 W 2 6 W 4
* LISTEN BOY has that and is a positive



L i n g f i e l d 3.20

4/1 Phiz, 6/1 Phaenomena, 8/1 Bantam
8/1 Speckled, 9/1 Banoffee 10/1 Bite Of The Cherry
10/1 Kikonga, 10/1 Tempest Fugit
12/1 Lalandia, 14/1 Prospera, 20/1 Lemon Pearl
33/1 Alwilda, 50/1 Livia´s Dream.

* This is a Listed race for Fillies over 1m 5f.
* The Draw doesn't help a lot as all stalls win
* Horses drawn 3-11 have the best record though
* Don't worry about long absences in this race
* Several past winners won after long breaks
* There are 3 factors I would demand here
* Every Past winner had between 4-9 career starts
* Every Past winner had form in Listed or Group Class
* I would avoid horses with 1 run this season
* There are 4 horses that pass these angles
* BANOFFEE - LALANDIA - KIKONGA - PHIZ
* No past winners finished 1st 2nd or 3rd last time
* They were all unplaced on their latest starts
* LAVANDIA was 2nd but that was in Germany
* I'd ignore that and am happy with that shortlist
* LAVANDIA each way 8/1 is my best guess



S e d g e f i e l d 3.30

9/2 Think Its All Over, 11/2 Sendiym, 11/2 Turf Trivia
13/2 Talkin Thomas, 7/1 Brady, 8/1 Alderbrook Lad
9/1 Muwalla, 14/1 Accordion To Paddy, 14/1 Cavite Eta
16/1 Bocamix, 20/1 Toledo Gold, 25/1 Reef Dancer.

This is a Novice Handicap Chases over 2m. Just too
much strength in depth and difficult to read profiles.
The favourite THINK ITS ALL OVER is one of those
harder to read types. I would want an easier race
for any bet but my "Sires and Systems" has thrown
up a profile that is interesting in SENDIYM at 7/1

* October and November
* Novice Handicap Chases over 2m
* Male horses aged 6
* Winning a Novice Handicap Chase last time
* Running within 6 weeks
* There were 3 horses that had this profile
* They finished W W W
* SENDIYM has this profile and is my choice



S t r a t f or d 3.40

4/1 Amigo, 9/2 Harry Hunt, 9/2 The Druids Nephew
11/2 Simply Wings, 13/2 Mart Lane, 8/1 Arctic Ben
8/1 Bennys Mist, 10/1 Rouge Et Blanc, 20/1 Overclear.

* This is a Handicap Chases over 2m 4f
* Looked at all similar races between 2m 3f and 2m 5f
* AMIGO comes from a handicap hurdle last year
* There were 9 winners that did that
* They won off the following official ratings
* 117 98 97 103 95 123 117 110 129
* AMIGO is rated 137 quite a bit higher
* That takes the shine off his profile. Its average.
* HARRY HUNT has to prove he stays
* If he does he has a chance
* SIMPLY WINGS - No reason why he can't win
* ARCTIC BEN - Could also win but trainer worries me

* THE DRUIDS NEPHEW was like two winners
* He comes from a Novice Handicap Chase first time out
* His profile is fine as it was a Class 2 race last time

If you remember recently at Cheltenham a horse
called Johns Spirit won the big handicap and he
is now 10/1 for the Paddy Power Gold Cup. That
win was reasonably similar to this race. He won
the Cheltenham race with the same sort of profile
as THE DRUIDS NEPHEW. Ironically Johns Spirit
was 3rd at Ayr on his previous start last season
and that's the race THE DRUIDS NEPHEW was in
6th place. There is symmetry between this pair.

I will go with THE DRUIDS NEPHEW but I don't
really feel I have enough negatives to get too
involved in this handicap. I do prefer his profile.



S t r a t f o r d 3.40

3/1 Andy Kelly, 5/1 Bob Keown, 5/1 Many Stars
6/1 Billy Biscuit, 6/1 Drumgooland, 13/2 Georgie Lad
10/1 Degenerate, 20/1 Area Access, 20/1 Fond Memory
25/1 Badger Wood, 25/1 Shinooki, 33/1 Flintham
33/1 Redoubtablefighter, 66/1 Lost Arca.

* This is a Maiden Hurdle around 2m 6f
* I looked at all similar races between 2m 5f and 3m
* ANDY KELLY is a 4yo
* He was just beaten a recent hurdle race
* He has just 1 previous run before
* I ran this profile and found a 0-9 record
* There was a winner who had 2 runs
* He had 1 Bumper and 1 Hurdle run
* None like ANDY KELLY with just 1 hurdle run
* Given he is favourite I would oppose him
* My problem is I run out of road to proceed
* Take unraced 5 year olds. They win many races
* The following fancied horses are all unraced 5yo's
* BOB KEOWN - MANY STARS
* GEORGIE LAD - BILLY BISCUIT
* Impossible to split them so I don't feel I can proceed
* I just think the favourite does not offer enough
* I would oppose him with something each way


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