No Full Bet today
1 Top of the Message Bet
11 Previews


Today's Bet

Windsor 2.30 - ILLUSTRIOUS PRINCE 8/1

Bath 5.15 - FOR SHIA AND LULA 6/1

Win Bet on Both Horses

Each Way Double


* If Staking £10 on this bet
* £4 on Each Horse
* £1 Each Way Double





I n s i d e T o d a y 's M e s s a g e

Bank Holiday message and there is always the
potential for things to turn nasty on these days.
I have made sure I haven't overcooked things
and done too much. There are 11 previews so
it's managable and hopefully just the right size.

Plenty of races are out of bounds today and it
is never a good idea to be too ambitious with
so many hard races. I think I have four options.


Today's Options

Warwick 2.05 - KYLE OF BUTE 14/1 Win Bet
Warwick 2.05 - MUFTARRES 6/4 Place Bet


Bath 2.40 - DING DING 4/1 Each Way


Windsor 2.30 - ILLUSTRIOUS PRINCE 8/1


Bath 5.15 - FOR SHIA AND LULA 7/1




Warwick 2.05

KYLE OF BUTE 14/1 Win Bet
MUFTARRES 6/4 Place Bet

I cant really advise this bet with a place saver
and its fair to say KYLE OF BUTE may want to
go a bit further but his price and profile looks
well worth a bet. Better keep this as a mention
but I am going to throw a few quid at the race.


Bath 2.40

DING DING 4/1 Each Way

I dont think this is a bad option but its only a
2yo seller and there is a lot we dont know in
the race so whilst I may have gone with this
on another quieter day I dont feel a big urge.


Windsor 2.30

ILLUSTRIOUS PRINCE 8/1

I dont know about this one. I have him as the
class profile and he could easily outclass his
field. This horse is running in the lowest class
he has ever ran in before. There are a couple
of issues. Not sure if this is the ideal distance
and more importantly I dont know what sort
of form he is in or whether I can rely on him.
I like the profile and the class aspect and the
price so I am going to have to bet him today.


Bath 5.15

FOR SHIA AND LULA 6/1

My starting point having done the race was
that this horse was a potential Maximum bet
but in the spirit of self doubt I found a couple
of concerns here that will gradually force me
to reduce the stake. I love this horses chance.
He is 5/1 yet he should be favourite. There is
always a price to pay. You can argue he may
be better on Sand and over a slightly shorter
distance. You can argue there may be a little
worry about the ground and the 52 day break
he has also has to be considered. I cant now
make him the sort of bet he may deserve to
be but he is most definately a good bet and
a horse I have to bet. The stakings annoying
me. I'm unsure whether to bet him each way
or save on Titan Diamond or The Noble Ord.


In the end I decided to combine 2 horses in
win bets and each way doubles. It might be
the right bet on the right day. I hope this is.



* There is No Message Tomorrow
* I need to break now
* Next Message Wednesday and Chester's Meeting



S u n d a y 's R e v i e w

The obvious conclusion from yesterdays 4 previews
was that I simply cocked up the top of the message.
We had two losers yet HAMZA won at 5/1 and then
TALENT won at 11/1 having drifted out. I suppose it
was very good analysis all in all. I messed up here
as I made WHAT A NAME the main bet and she did
not run well. It was a good day to bury a loser after
a good winner on Saturday. I didn't say it yesterday
but I was tired after Saturdays message and wasn't
mentally fresh. What annoyed me most of all was I
had NO HERETIC the 12/1 winner of the first race as
a horse with one of the best profiles if not the best.

I turned him down as the trainer said he needed a
run. I let myself get put away there. I know that is
hindsight talking but I went with the lazy selection
in the race that I didn't really believe in and there
was something I should have done with the winner
even it it was just a saver. I know that was down to
fatigue and laziness. HAMZA won and whilst not a
significant bet for us it was nice to see him win so
well. I dont know why WHAT A NAME flopped but
they can't all win. I'm glad I got the favourite right
but I didn't fancy the winner on a breeding and It
may have been the slow early pace that helped.

Then a drifting TALENT won which was a surprise
as she was 100/1 + in running but she did it well.
I honestly didn't know how good or bad a bet she
was. I have always loved my angles in that race
and often get the winner but I wasnt in the right
frame of mind to make sensible decisions. Goes
down as a very good message that I cocked up.

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P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S



W a r w i c k 2.05

4/1 Bang Tidy, 9/2 Zenafire, 6/1 Duke Of Destiny
7/1 Muftarres, 10/1 Balmoral Castle, 12/1 Kyle Of Bute
12/1 Lord Franklin, 12/1 Shared Moment
14/1 Beaumont Cooper, 14/1 Tyrur Ted
20/1 Evergreen Forest, 20/1 Master Of Song
33/1 Jay Kay.

This is a Mile Apprentice Handicap and I like these
races. This race has been dominated by mares but
we have only one this year and its hard to see her
winning. One statistic that does stand in these races.

* May has 54 Apprentice Races over a Mile
* Horses with one run this season struggle
* All horses with 1 run this year are 4-198
* Those coming from 7f handicaps or shorter are 0-35
* I'd be wary of betting horses with 1 run this year
* Warwick have had 19 of these Apprentice races
* Horses with 1 run this year are 1-78 in these races
* I would avoid these if at all possible
* DUKE OF DESTINY fails this statistic
* BANG TIDY also fails this statistic
* I dont want a 7f winner at a mile with 1 run this year
* BANG TIDY may not stay a Mile
* His Sire (Moss Vale) has a weak 8f record
* His runners so far at 8f and more are just 1-50
* MASTER OF SONG is out with 1 run this year
* Especially with a 119 day absence
* ZENAFIRE only has 1 run this season
* He comes out as unsafe with so few career starts
* LORD FRANKLIN wouldnt be my first choice
* Not with just one run this season
* EVERGREEN FOREST doesnt come out well
* Not dropping from 12f to 8f
* JAY KAY is unlikely to win this first time out
* SHARED MOMENT is unsafe as a 7yo mare from 7f
* BEAUMONT COOPER doesnt appeal first time out
* Not from a 3yo handicap and just 4 runs
* He has also downgraded stables this year
* TYRUR TED is 8 and lacks a recent run
* I couldnt make a strong case for him
* BALMORAL CASTLE has a difficult 53 day absence
* I cant rule him out but his profiles not strong
* He offers nothing in the way of backclass
* MUFTARRES is very fit and running well
* He gets great credit for that
* His profile has flaws elsewhere though
* He won a 7f handicap last time
* Asking a lot for an 8yo to win again at a Mile
* That said he looks the ideal place bet saver
* KYLE OF BUTE is fit and running well
* He's well treated and has runs this season
* There are several worse profiles than that
* This trip is a bit on the short side for him
* I dont see a better option given the price

Selection

KYLE OF BUTE 14/1 Win Bet
MUFTARRES 6/4 Place Bet




F f o s L a s 2.20

7/2 Houndscourt, 5/1 Nodividendsagain, 6/1 Garryleigh
15/2 Azure Aware, 17/2 Taradrewe, 10/1 Macarthur
11/1 Twin Barrels, 12/1 Third Of The Third
16/1 Henri Parry Morgan, 20/1 Mighty Clarets
25/1 Annelko, 25/1 Kalani King, 40/1 Vicator
50/1 On The Case, 100/1 Road Show, 150/1 Gwili Spar.

* This is a 2m 4f Maiden Hurdle
* I ran the following profile
* Horses aged 6 or more
* Running over 2m 6f or further last time
* No Graded Form
* Just one career run
* I ran this profile and found a 1-46 record
* AZURE AWARE has this profile
* I wanted more and oppose him
* GARRYLEIGH has a small chance
* He isnt genuine though
* NODIVIDENDSAGAIN - Not keen from a Bumper
* TARADREWE - Fell at the first on hurdling debut
* I'd see him as neutral on the side of negative
* THIRD OF THE THIRD - Long absence 6yo
* Statistically I'd make him a neutral profile
* HOUNDSCOURT has a much safer profile
* He looks the one to be with

Selection

HOUNDSCOURT

* Each Way bet if 7/2
* Win Bet if 3/1 or shorter
* Third Of The Third an optional saver




B e v e r l e y 2.25

9/4 Spiceupyourlife, 5/2 Lily Rules, 11/2 Scoreline
6/1 Zalzilah, 12/1 Different Scenario, 14/1 Augusta Ada
14/1 Kraka Gym, 16/1 Barleycorn, 20/1 Bon Chance
25/1 San Remo Rose.

* This is a 5f maiden for 2 year olds
* We have 5 hard to fancy outsiders
* LILY RULES has 2 runs and has been made favourite
* I have 2 problems with him
* All past winners had 1 run or were unraced
* His Racing Post Ratings of 67 and 67 may not be enough
* It would win just 1 of the last 9 renewals of this
* I'd try and pick and each way alternative
* You can only guess in a race like this
* DIFFERENT SCENARIO - Not sure he did enough last time
* Not from an Auction Maiden
* ZALZILAH has had a run at Nottingham
* He needed that run and had the worst draw
* He was also carried wide which damaged his chance
* He will improve and could go close
* My gut feeling was he wanted another run
* I think an unraced horse could nick this
* Unraced horses have won 7 of the last 8 renewals
* SCORELINE and SPICEUPYOURLIFE may be the ones
* I will take a chance on the bigger priced horse
* SCORELINE Each Way Bet 7/1





W i n d s o r 2.30

9/2 Ficelle, 5/1 Dancing Welcome
11/2 Christopher Chua, 11/2 First Rebellion
10/1 Maria Montez, 10/1 Reginald Claude
12/1 Courageous, 12/1 Illustrious Prince
12/1 Imjin River, 14/1 Cocohatchee
16/1 Madame Kintyre, 16/1 Methaaly
20/1 Laugh Or Cry.

* This is a 6f Apprentice Handicap
* Worth a look at the 6f Draw here
* I looked at races here with 12 + runners
* In 2012-13 there were 12 of these races
* Winners were drawn 7 14 5 6 8 11 12 11 9 6 16 5
* Horses drawn 1-2-3-4 were 0-45 in these races
* I looked at races here with 11 + runners
* Horses drawn 1-2-3 had a 1-42 record
* I have to see very low draws as the weakest
* CHRISTOPHER CHUA - Not keen he is drawn 1
* Not keen he is 4 and absent 51 days either
* Throw in no backclass and he isnt ideal
* METHAALY isnt ideally drawn in stall 2
* He's fit and running ok but isnt safe
* METHAALY is after all a 10 year old now
* He hasnt won on grass since June 2010
* MARIA MONTEZ - Not for me as a filly absent 241 days
* Not from John Hills so she is rejected
* MADAME KINTYRE is another female seasonal debutant
* I cant find one winning like her
* FICELLE doesnt have a safe profile
* Not as a 4yo filly coming from a 5f race
* FICELLE has no backclass to try and overcome that
* LAUGH OR CRY wont be fit enough
* COCOHATCHEE is an exposed seasonal debutant
* I think he brings too much risk here

* DANCING WELCOME has to be respected
* She was 2nd in this race last year
* That was 3rd run in 17 days when she did that
* This year she has had 1 run in 107 days
* As an exposed 7yo mare thats a bit short
* No negative but it puts me off her
* IMJIN RIVER was well beaten over 7f last time
* I dont see a good profile but no negative
* REGINALD CLAUDE also had an unimpressive profile
* With a very inexperienced rider she isnt for me

Shortlist

* COURAGEOUS certainly has the class to win
* He is exposed and comes here with 2 poor runs
* I wanted more recent encouragement
* The 2011 winner of this (Memphis Man) was similar
* He won as an older horse after a bad run
* He had a longer break though
* COURAGEOUS could win but he isnt safe

* FIRST REBELLION drops from a 7f race
* No exposed 4yo won doing that
* Thats not a stat that would worry me too much
* FIRST REBELLION doesnt have any backclass though
* He also has an inexperienced pilot
* I am far from convinced but he is fit and running well

* ILLUSTRIOUS PRINCE has been running over further
* He definately has the class to win this race
* He has slipped to a career low mark
* This is the lowest grade he has ever raced in
* Two of his 4 career wins came over this trip
* Not sure he is in the right frame of mind to strike
* He could also get a bit outpaced early
* He does have the class profile though

Selection

ILLUSTRIOUS PRINCE 8/1 Win Bet
FIRST REBELLION 5/1 Saver Bet




B a t h 2.40

5/2 Diamond Lady, 11/4 Ding Ding, 4/1 Gin Time
4/1 Scargill, 14/1 Love´s Last Adieu, 14/1 Posh Bounty
20/1 Marti´s Girl, 25/1 Chilly In Rio, 33/1 Under Your Thumb
33/1 Will To Survive.

This is a 2yo seller. Margins are so tight here. The market
has decided that the Redcar form when SCARGILL won a
seller beating GIN TIME is best. I'm not so sure here. What
I don't like about SCARGILL is that he has a penalty and I
see GIN TIME's profile as only modest. If we take the past
winners and their Racing Post Ratings the only horses in
this race that have achieved a similar standard would be
DIAMOND LADY and DING DING. Whether thats the safest
way into the race or not I don't know but these two have
the numbers and are bigger prices. I like DING DING best
and She does get 10lbs in weight from the favourite which
sounds like a lot to me for a 2yo. Wide open and no plans
to bet in the race but my selection is DING DING each way.

Selection

DING DING 4/1

Each Way



W a r w i c k 3.05

11/4 Shirley´s Pride, 9/2 Balatina, 9/2 Batchworth Lady
11/2 Fidget, 7/1 Symboline, 9/1 Tregereth, 12/1 Little Eli
20/1 Millie N Aire, 20/1 Sand And Deliver.

* This is a 3yo handicap over 5f
* There are only 23 of these races in May
* These tell me to avoid the following
* Onoy 2 winners were seasonal debutants
* None had under 3 career starts
* FIDGET a filly with 3 runs first time out isnt safe
* There were 5 winners that won last time out
* They had absences of 4 1 9 6 8 days
* BATCHWORTH LADY won last time and is off 50 days
* I dont see that as a safe profile
* LITTLE ELI didnt do enough last time
* MILLIE N AIRE is too exposed to win first time
* SAND AND DELIVER - Not keen on his absence
* TREGERETH - Not keen on his absence
* I think one of 2 horses may take this
* SYMBOLINE - BALATINA
* This is NOT a race I can offer a strong view on

Selection

BALATINA 7/2 + Win Bet
SYMBOLINE 8/1 Saver Bet



B a t h 3.10

6/4 Red Orator, 7/2 Capellanus, 4/1 Callisto Moon
6/1 Petaluma, 12/1 Sommersturm,

This is a 17f handicap for 0-85 rated horses. I might
have been more interested had it been a few more
runners. I looked at every handicap in May that was
run over 2m 1f or further. Its clear that horses aged 4
do not have a very good record in these staying races.

* Horses aged 4 were 2-68
* None of these were female
* None of these came up in distance either

* Because of this I am avoiding the 4yo's
* RED ORATOR is a 4yo up in distance
* PETALUMA is a 4yo filly

* SOMMERSTURM - Respected with recent runs
* It is offputting all his wins are in Class 6 races
* CAPELLANUS - Shortlistable but comes via hurdles
* CALLISTO MOON also comes via hurdles
* That makes these two quite hard to read
* I loked at every May handicap over 2m 1f or more
* Horses aged 8 or more had a poor 1-67 record
* SOMMERSTURM is now a 9 year old
* CALLISTO MOON is also a 9 year old
* That pushes me towards CAPELLANUS
* Could only be a speculative choice though

Selection

CAPELLANUS 5/1 +





W a r w i c k 3.40

3/1 Whatever You Do, 4/1 Maggie Pink, 5/1 Amosite
11/2 Dutch Mistress, 7/1 Sixties Queen, 8/1 Burnt Fingers
10/1 Jacobella, 16/1 Uncomplicated, 25/1 Remix.

This fillies handicap is messy. I dont see a case
for REMIX or AMOSITE and UNCOMPLICATED's
also unsafe as a 3yo coming from a 6f race. No
3yo has won a similar race doing that yet so It
may be best to avoid both SIXTIES QUEEN and
BURNT FINGERS who also do the same. I can't
find a 4yo winning that had under 4 career runs
so I am also ignoring DUTCH MISTRESS as well.
JACOBELLA is 3 and comes from a Mile maiden
and as all 3yo's doing that had more runs I feel
I should probably leave her out of conclusions.

Shortlist

* MAGGIE PINK - Solid type limited but effective
* WHATEVER YOU DO - Slightly unorthadox profile
* She comes from a Conditions race and few do that
* She's had good excuses so far
* She surely has the scope to improve past these

Selection

WHATEVER YOU DO 5/2

Win Bet




W a r w i c k 4.10

7/2 Breccbennach, 9/2 Pleasure Bent
7/1 Mazaaher, 7/1 Paris Rose, 8/1 London Bridge
10/1 Peninsula, 12/1 Tenor, 12/1 Velox, 14/1 Dalliefour
14/1 Eleanor Roosevelt, 25/1 Jimmy Sewell
33/1 Memorize, 50/1 Just Isla, 100/1 Shameless Man.

* This is an all aged maiden over a Mile
* Not too much to go on
* Unraced horses score badly
* The odd ones to do win but they are not safe
* VELOX - MEMORIZE are unraced and not for me
* JIMMY SEWELL - I'd rather have a 3yo
* PENINSULA is rejected for the same reason
* PARIS ROSE has a tough draw in stall 15
* The last winner drawn that high was back in 2007
* This is an amazing statistic - but I dont trust it
* Horses beaten 10 + lengths last time in 3yo maidens
* These horses have a 3-340 record
* Male horses in this record were just 1-239
* I dont trust it as there are winners at 7f and 9f
* Either way I dont want to bet one of these
* The following horses fail this
* LONDON BRIDGE - TENOR
* I'm opposing fillies well beaten as well last time
* DALLIEFOUR - ELEANOR ROOSEVELT are out

Shortlist

* MAZAAHER - Profile ok but awful stable to rely on
* PLEASURE BENT - Statistically good but will he be fit ?
* JUST ISLA - I can't rule her out
* BRECCBENNACH - Rating may flatter but fair chance

Selection

PLEASURE BENT 3/1 Win Bet
BRECCBENNACH 4/1 Saver Bet




W i n d s o r 5.05

9/4 Mean It, 4/1 Sheila´s Buddy, 9/2 Open Water
5/1 Poetic Lord, 7/1 Highland Duke, 14/1 Thecornishcowboy
16/1 Brocklebank, Come On Blue Chip, 25/1 Top Diktat.

* This is a 10f handicap
* I dont think I can sort this out
* Too many unreadable profiles and open issues
* I just think the 7/4 favourite had a few problems
* I looked at all handicaps in May over 9f-10f in Class 3-4-5
* Horses aged 4
* Coming from Handicaps over 8f of shorter
* One run that season
* I found a 6-150 record with these horses
* All 6 winners had at least 6 career starts
* Those with under 5 career starts were 0-31
* MEAN IT only has 3 career runs
* I would oppose MEAN IT with something each way
* No Selection but I dont fancy the favourite




B a t h 5.15

2/1 Tooley Woods, 3/1 Qeethaara, 4/1 For Shia And Lula
5/1 Titan Diamond, 10/1 The Noble Ord, 14/1 Lady Tycoon
20/1 Fushicho, 25/1 Mad For Fun, 33/1 Perfect Outlook.

* This is a very poor handicap over 8f
* TOOLEY WOODS - Her profile didnt feel safe
* She is a 4yo filly who won over 7f last time
* I cant find any 4yo filly that then won at 8f
* She's got no backclass either
* She may win but I dont like her profile enough
* I have fitness issues with these
* PERFECT OUTLOOK - FUSHICHO -LADY TYCOON

* THE NOBLE ORD - Not ruled out but profile average
* Not my favourite stable either
* The horse hasnt won for some time now
* QEETHAARA - I cant rule her out but she's unsafe
* Not sure I'd want a 9yo mare in this sort of race
* MAD FOR FUN doesnt really offer enough
* Not as a filly well beaten in a recent seller
* TITAN DIAMOND - Nothing special about his profile
* He does have a fit profile though counting for a lot

* FOR SHIA AND LULA interests me
* This is a 55 rated horse facing a 0-54 field
* FOR SHIA AND LULA is rated far higher on Sand
* He has only had 6 turf runs
* There are genuine reasons why he didnt win them
* You only have to look at his backclass to like him
* The company he has been running in looks decent
* It is a far better standard than he faces today
* FOR SHIA AND LULA probably didnt stay 9f last time
* His sire hasnt had a winner over that far yet
* I think he should win this
* I dont understand why he is available at such big odds
* You can argue he is better on sand
* I think thats debatable and it doesnt worry me
* You can argue he doesnt truly stay a mile
* Thats a fair argument but he has runs questioning that
* You can argue he may not want faster ground
* That's unproven but it wouldnt put me off
* FOR SHIA AND LULA is absent 52 days
* Thats not helpful and I'd rather not have that
* It is not enough to put me off this horse
* The most convincing argument against him is this
* He is ridden by Shane Kelly and is drifting
* FOR SHIA AND LULA - Part of me thinks he must win
* I can build some arguments against him
* None of these arguments put me off
* Not given the price he is today
* FOR SHIA AND LULA should be winning this

Selection

FOR SHIA AND LULA 5/1


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