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Today's Bet

Kempton 6.50

MUSICORA 2/1

Win Bet



T o d a y 's M e s s a g e

Three very powerful days coming up with some
quality racing to look forward to. Today is better
than we have seen so far this week and offers a
lot of interesting races that should set us up very
well for when the quality takes over tomorrow.

Message is a bit late sorry. I have options but no
time to try and find something at a bigger price.
I had many late difficult decisions to make about
staking today. Fighting off temptations to go with
each way doubles and other things. In the end I
decided that I should trust Richard Hughes to get
MUSICORA home from a difficult draw. I want to
try and get away from short priced options which
have been pulling me in like a magnet this week
but the cards change completely tomorrow and
I may have more chance of a better priced bet.



Today's Options



Lingfield - 3.00

KITTENS 3/1 -Win Bet
KINGSTON EUCALYPT 7/1 Saver

I think the favourite in the race has work to do
and although KITTENS doesn't set a very high
standard she won with a lot in hand last time
and will be far better conditioned today. I feel
KINGSTON EUCALYPT is a necessary saver as
she gets so much weight. Makes the staking a
bit messier but I think I'm on the right track.


Kempton 6.50 - MUSICORA 2/1 Win Bet

I flagged her up recently as a horse about to
win after having two promising runs from the
worst draws. Today she has been ridiculously
unlucky again having the worst draw. I think
she will overcome the draw but that's hearsay
and you can never really predict what sort of
disadvantage it is. I think she might win this.



Worcester 7.40

SCOTER FONTAINE Evens

Win Bet

This Novice Hurdle interests me and I prefer
a safer and experienced SCOTER FONTAINE
over a Bumper horse. My main worry is that
he is a short price and there are some dark
horses I can't know about at big prices and
it only takes one to spoil things. Should win.



I could include Money Team Catterick 2.20pm.
Not a bet I'd want as a single but he could be a
starting point for some each way doubles given
a big form chance and this well framed race.


T u e s d a y s R e v i e w

I went with a bet on the Cricket yesterday which
will take a few weeks to finish. I think I read the
message correctly yesterday. I was never keen
on my Wolverhampton and Pontefract business
and struggled there. I felt Southwell could be a
lot better and we had good winners there. I did
say follow me at Uttoxeter and ended up with a
winner loser and non runner from three bets. It
wasn't a great message but I understood it well
and hopefully it might have steered you into the
more successful parts of it which was important.

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P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S



L i n g f i e l d 2.00

2/1 Loraine, 4/1 Kensington Gardens
5/1 Double Star, 6/1 Khelac, 9/1 Pink Mischief
14/1 Planchette, 16/1 East Texas Red
16/1 Lambert Pen, 20/1 Dawn Rock, 20/1 Delphica
50/1 Lilly May.

There is not enough evidence to do much in this
race. Modest standard here. LORAINE might just
be improving from low starting point. Not sure I
can trust that assumption. There is evidence the
Topweight KHELAC is entitled to win this on 2yo
form. He ran well enough 5 days ago to threaten
the favourite. I think that's a better bet then taking
a short price about the favourite. Low stakes here.

Selection

KHELAC 6/1 + Each Way





C a t t e r i c k 2.20

5/4 Money Team, 6/1 Patisserie, 7/1 Kindanyce
7/1 Porsh Herrik, 12/1 Black Treacle 12/1 Lady Alaska
14/1 Madame Giry, 16/1 Marsden Cuckoo 20/1 Barleycorn.

* This is a 2yo claimer over 5f.
* Two past winners of this race both had 3 runs
* That's no surprise at this track
* MONEY TEAM has 4 runs
* PATISSERIE has 3 runs
* PORSH HERRIK has 3 runs
* I'd given these the edge over lighter raced horses
* PORSH HERRIK is from a Claimer
* Two winners did that and had 6 and 7 previous runs
* PORSH HERRIK only has 3 runs and isn't a good match
* PATISSERIE is a filly from a 6f maiden
* Thats a decent enough profile and she is well drawn
* MONEY TEAM sets a clear standard on form
* I like his profile and he should win
* He could have been better drawn than Stall 10
* I think that's a draw you can win from

Selection

MONEY TEAM

I'd argue he'd be even safer in an each way double



C a t t e r i c k 2.50

7/4 Northern Meeting, 7/2 Copybook, 7/2 Harbinger Lass
5/1 Society Pearl, 8/1 Saffron Town, 25/1 Magic Skyline
33/1 Wynyard Boy, 50/1 Snow Train.

This is a maiden just short of 12f. Comfortably the
most experienced horse is HARBINGER LASS. I'm
not that worried about her profile with 5 runs but
I do have other issues. I don't think she is certain
to stay this far. Her sire hasn't bred a winner over
10f yet which is a weak argument given how few
have tried but stamina is still an issue. My bigger
problem is that HARBINGER LASS failed to finish
in front of a 65 rated 4 year old last time and that
was when she was receiving 20lb weight for age.
She has to be better than that but she doesn't do
anything for me. SOCIETY PEARL has plenty of
positives and I liked her profile. My only issue's
whether she stays 12f. I expect she will but that
is not proven and the Catterick 12f takes as much
as 8 seconds more to run than the Bath distance.
She ran into a smart horse last time so I wouldnt
criticise her for that but stamina is not certain as
she has a mixed pedigree. NORTHERN MEETING
has to be respected from a powerful stable. She
had no chance on her debut from a higher draw
at Windsor and she ran well in light of that. The
best profile here is SOCIETY PEARL so I'd rather
be with her each way than the favourite.

I thought about this horse as a bet but there's a
risk of a non runner spoiling the bet and I liked
the favourite as well so it's probably not worth
the risk with an unraced horse also backed.

Selection

SOCIETY PEARL 7/2

Each Way




L i n g f i e l d 3.00

13/8 Candoluminescence, 7/2 Kittens
7/2 Langham Lily, 11/2 Kingston Eucalypt
10/1 Dazzling Valentine, 16/1 Flashy Star.

This fillies handicap is interesting despite a really
unpleasantly framed 6 runner race. I looked at all
11f-12f fillies handicaps in July. I'm not convinced
about favourite CANDOLUMINESCENCE. She looks
scopey and progressive and I have no problem in
her being a 3 year old. I hate the combination she
has of having just one run this season when going
up in distance from a maiden. The vast majority
of 3yo winners had more runs that year and those
that didn't came from longer. Win lose or draw I
can't find a 3yo winning like her and I'd rather be
on something with more runs this year so she is
out. I don't want a hurdler like FLASHY STAR in
a race like this. LANGHAM LILY could go well in
this race but she does not have much backclass.
DAZZLING VALENTINE doesn't have improvement
and is exposed well beaten last time and doesn't
offer much. I like the top and bottom weights.

Shortlist

KITTENS - KINGSTON EUCALYPT

KITTENS won well last time and had a bit in hand
at the end. It wasn't a brilliant race by any means
but she is fit and running well and we can not rule
out further improvement. She is a very interesting
option in this race. CANDOLUMINESCENCE might
improve past KITTENS but I feel that's not an easy
task for a 3 year old with 1 run this season. I fancy
the older KITTENS to have too much for her. What
worries me more is KINGSTON EUCALYPT because
she is bottomweight getting 13lbs weight and may
improve back in distance. That was after all a run
on a Grade 1 track and she could be a threat here.

My Complicated trends that KITTENS has a much
safer profile and I think she is a good bet to win
this at 3/1 with KINGSTON EUCALYPT as saver.



Selection

KITTENS 3/1 -Win Bet

KINGSTON EUCALYPT 7/1 Saver




C a t t e r i c k 3.20

11/8 Just Paul, 7/2 Rich Forever, 4/1 Silkelly
6/1 Absolute Diamond, 10/1 Scala Romana.

* This is a 3yo handicap over 7f
* This is a track that rewards experience
* Look at how many runs past winners of this race had
* 13 7 15 4 9 13 7 12 10 6 6 16 7 7
* 14 of the 15 past winners had at least 6 runs
* ABSOLUTE DIAMOND doesn't appeal with just 3 runs
* SCALA ROMANA has 4 runs and I'd avoid her
* Fillies up in distance and weak with just 4 runs
* RICH FOREVER has just 2 runs this season
* Not entirely happy about that given a recent run
* I looked at horses from recent handicaps
* When having 5 or more runs they wanted more that year
* Complicated profile but I cant match him to any winners
* I could have him wrong but I feel he is unsafe

Shortlist

* JUST PAUL won a recent 7f handicap
* I looked at male horses doing that and found 5 winners
* They had 6 6 7 4 4 career starts
* JUST PAUL has 10 runs a bit more experience than these
* That just takes a bit of shine off his profile
* He has won his last 3 but this is a better race
* Ideally I'd have preferred him a bit lighter raced

* SILKELLY has ran just twice this season
* I wouldnt have turned down another run
* I can find a winner at Epsom like her though
* That horse had a bit less weight but she's respected
* She's temperamental but she could win a 0-70 easily

Selection

SILKELLY - Half your stake 3/1
SILKELLY - JUST PAUL - Half your stake on Exacta



C a t t e r i c k 4.20

7/2 Rasselas, 5/1 Birdy Boy, 6/1 Just The Tonic
8/1 Dialogue, 10/1 Jupiter Fidius, 10/1 Logans Legend
10/1 Thrust Control, 12/1 Needy Mccredie
14/1 Lees Anthem, 16/1 Pippy, 20/1 Cymeriad
25/1 Durham Express, 33/1 Forever Janey.

One problem with this 7f handicap is the Draw. Look
at similar races here and the last 3 winners of similar
races were all drawn high but the 3 before that were
all drawn low. I can see a case for BIRDY BOY as a
3 year old with a recent run but this age group don't
score well and given the choice I'd rather have older
horses. I'm rejecting the 3yo's PIPPY and CYMERIAD.
I see DURHAM EXPRESS and FOREVER JANEY unfit.
There are not enough positives for LOGANS LEGEND
or LEES ANTHEM. I cant match NEEDY MCCREDIE to
any winner. JUPITER FIDIUS and THRUST CONTROL
have heavy defeats to overcome and I couldn't find
a similar horse overcoming that. JUST THE TONIC
does have an underraced look to her profile with 3
runs this year for an exposed older mare. I wanted
a better last run for DIALOGUE and although he's a
well handicapped horse his Sand form is far better.
RASSELAS is hardly solid but has at least got some
recent form even if it is in a seller. With so many of
these hammered last time out the horses that have
good recent races like RASSELAS and BIRDY BOY
do look harder to oppose. I'm split staking this race.

Selection

BIRDY BOY 3/1 Win Bet

RASSELAS 5/4 Place Bet



K e m p t o n 6.50

7/2 Musicora, 4/1 Got To Dance, 9/2 More Aspen
9/2 Thatchit, 5/1 Threetimesalady, 10/1 Maysville
12/1 Mimbleberry, 16/1 Jalebi, 33/1 Johara
33/1 Starlit Cantata, 50/1 Silver Starlet
50/1 Tidal Beauty.

This is a fillies maiden over 6f. A few days ago in
a message I highlighted MUSICORA as a horse to
follow as she ran two really good races from the
worst draw in each race. MUSICORA should win
a maiden like this easily enough. Her bad luck's
continuing as she has Stall 12 of 12 here. That is
not the best place to be. If we look at races here
with 10 or more runners then Stall 12 has won 6
of the last 140 races but none have won now for
31 consequetive races. I wouldnt rule her out of
winning this. GOT TO DANCE has a poor last run
and a months absence to overcome. Horses with
that profile were 3-78. Two of those winners had
just one run and the other three runs so none of
them were twice raced like her. MORE ASPEN is
unraced. She could be a threat but she's hardly
well drawn anyway. No winners came from any
condtions race over 5f with 1 run like THATCHIT.
I can not see past MUSICORA here. In terms of
the draw it's a case of trusting Richard Hughes
and I do as I think he's on the best horse here.

Selection

MUSICORA 7/4

Win Bet



K e m p t o n 7.20

9/2 Desert Strike 13/2 Tagula Night
13/2 The Tichborne, 7/1 Arctic Lynx, 9/1 Ashpan Sam
10/1 Elna Bright, 10/1 Jocasta Dawn, 12/1 Living Leader
16/1 Decision By One, 16/1 Ocean Legend, 25/1 Heartsong.

* This is a 6f handicap
* I looked at horses aged 7 or more from 5f races
* They are fine if running within 2 weeks
* Those that did it absent more than 2 weeks are 1-58
* DESERT STRIKE fails that and isn't for me
* Not winning over 5f last time out
* TAGULA NIGHT also fails that statistic
* ELNA BRIGHT - I wanted a better last run
* JOCASTA DAWN - HEARTSONG don't look ready to win
* DECISION BY ONE doesn't come out well enough
* OCEAN LEGEND wouldn't be first choice
* ASHPAN SAM - Short of runs this year for 4yo from 5f

Shortlist

* LIVING LEADER - Acceptable profile
* THE TICHBORNE has no problems statistically
* ARCTIC LYNX has a safe and solid profile

Selection

ARCTIC LYNX 11/2 Win Bet
THE TICHBORNE 6/1 Saver Bet




W o r c e s t e r 7.40

11/10 Scoter Fontaine, 13/8 Bob Tucker, 9/1 Mist The Boat
10/1 Keel Haul, 25/1 Hope Royal, 25/1 Terntheothercheek
33/1 Lightning Bill, 33/1 River Rat, 66/1 Desert Sting.

This is a 2m 4f Novice Hurdle. We have essentially two
dominant horses. Rebecca Curtis runs the exposed 118
rated SCOTER FONTAINE. His danger is BOB TUCKER a
horse from a Bumper. Statistically neither are brilliant.
Not many win when as exposed as SCOTER FONTAINE.
Horses from bumpers like BOB TUCKER have miserable
records. To be fair to BOB TUCKER what few winners in
these races from Bumpers were reasonably similar to
him. If I run both profiles strictly than neither are like a
winner and BOB TUCKER comes out no worse anyway.
However I am going with SCOTER FONTAINE and think
he should win this easily. He has some solid form in a
few decent handicaps. I'll take that all day long over
a Bumper horse. It's interesting that BOB TUCKER was
3rd on his last start and the second horse that beat him
was Trained by Rebecca Curtis who also trains today's
favourite SCOTER FONTAINE. The Curtis horse finishing
ahead of him was Solo Jugadores who was thrashed
next time out and then ended up in claiming hurdles
after just 3 runs. That horse is probably not considered
in the same league as SCOTER FONTAINE. I looked at
Brendan Powell's record with horses from Bumpers.

* Brendan Powell in Maiden and Novice Hurdles
* Any distance any time of year
* Horses from Bumpers that had no Graded or Listed form
* He has a 2-114 record and one only won a mares maiden
* Neither were absent as long as BOB TUCKER

I don't underestimate the potential BOB TUCKER has
but for me SCOTER FONTAINE is far more solid and
all roads lead to him winning this Novice Hurdle.

Selection

SCOTER FONTAINE 10/11

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