7 Previews

No Account Bet

1 Option Today



T o d a y 's M e s s a g e

I have looked at 7 races today and it's been a
slightly easier message to do. I had wondered
why I had been unfocused and a bit lethargic
lately but last night I came down with the Flu
so this was obviously why. At least I know and
it won't affect anything. I will just be working
a bit slower and won't be doing big messages
for a few days especially with the bad weather.



T o d a y' s O p t i o n s

One Bet Today

Beverley 4.10

MAJESTIC MANANNAN 5/1 Win Bet

BEAU MISTRAL 6/1 Saver Bet



There are 7 previews all interesting in some
way or another. Not all of these are suitable
for bets though as I will attempt to explain.



Beverley 2.00 - Far too open and speculative


Sandown 2.20

ITALIAN TOM 7/1 Win Bet
THE STRIG 6/1 Saver

I like to have a go at this 5f handicap. It's always
open and luck is needed in this race but there is
a few decent angles. Last Saturday ITALIAN TOM
was one of my options at Bath at 14/1. He failed
then and I'm prepared to give him a 2nd chance
with the Saver on THE STRIG. Probably too open
and luck reliant for an account bet but I did think
it was worth a small bet to at least recover stakes.


Beverley 3.00 - SALFORD SECRET 6/4 Win Bet

I think he should win but he is a short price on
an unforgiving track and he could have quirks
and I'd want a better price if I am risking that.



Yarmouth 3.10 - AGENT ALLISON 14/1 Win Bet
Yarmouth 3.10 - ROCK CHOIR 8/1 Win Bet
Yarmouth 3.10 - HIPPY HIPPY SHAKE 4/1 Saver

Three horses staked which is too many given
I'm not confident I even have the winner here.


Sandown 3.55 - PENITENT 7/4 Win Bet

No more than a percentage bet and I wouldn't
advise him without a negative I don't have for
the favourite so he's bottom message business.



Beverley 4.10 - MAJESTIC MANANNAN 5/1 Win Bet
Beverley 4.10 - BEAU MISTRAL 6/1 Saver Bet

I do fancy MAJESTIC MANANNAN and think he's
my best bet. I have saved on BEAU MISTRAL at
6/1 but to be honest I'd rather bet each way on
MAJESTIC MANANNAN. The one thing stopping
me is thinking he will blast out in front and the
issue if he's headed is fading out of the frame.
I will take the chance. I do not think he's been
handicapped very generously but he may well
have too much speed for these and I fancy him
to win from the front. You could have a decent
bet around 5/1 and lay in running about 2/1 as
his running style suits that bet. There is a big
chance MAJESTIC MANANNAN will be a couple
of lengths clear and what I liked about the race
was the horses behind him in the market seem
to lack recent runs or enough runs and have a
bit to prove in terms of their fitness. That tells
me there's a good chance he holds on to win.
He is Borderline Account Bet. I just do not like
the tactical issues. It would be ironic if it was
our Saver another front runner that killed this
bet but both horses cutting each others throats.
I've talked myself out of an account bet but it
is my best bet today and my only advised bet.



Yarmouth 4.55 - FREE ZONE 12/1 Each Way
Yarmouth 4.55 - NORMAL EQUILIBRIUM 12/1 Each Way

Intriguing little Class 2 handicap and all I have
done is follow my angles and they have come
up with two unlikely candidates. Not a race to
stake heavy on. More an interesting exercise
to see if the angles work. Small Stakes only.



T u e s d a y 's S u m m a r y

I wasn't confident yesterday as I knew I was not
quite right. The message went L L W L P L W P
and didn't do too badly. It finished well in front
but could have been lucky as we were gifted a
winner at Stratford. I'd have taken those results
yesterday if you have offered me them so for a
non descript quiet day it wasn't too unpleasant.

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P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W


Beverley 2.00

This Selling Nursery is far too hard and we have
no business getting involved especially without
a clear draw bias. In this race the following has
been reasonably successful over the past years.

* You want 3-9 runs and a run within 31 days
* Not beaten more than 10 + lengths last time
* You want a horse with at least 8st 11lbs
* I think these 4 have the safest profile
* NARBOROUGH - TRICKSOME - KOPKAP -TINSILL
* Drawn most to the topweight e/w
* NARBOROUGH each way my token choice


S a n d o w n 2.20

5/1 Desert Command, 5/1 Senator Bong
7/1 Celestial Bay, 7/1 The Strig, 10/1 Italian Tom
10/1 Storm Lightning 12/1 Solemn, 16/1 Harrogate Fair
16/1 Irish Boy 16/1 Royal Award, 25/1 Risky Rizkova
25/1 Torres Del Paine, 33/1 Time Medicean.

* This is a 5f handicap
* There were 14 big field handicaps here since 2011
* All 14 winners were drawn 1-10
* Horses drawn 10 or higher were 0-45
* I'd be wary about the high drawn HARROGATE FAIR
* DESERT COMMAND is a 3yo drawn 12
* He looks progressive but he has no 5f form
* This is his first run over 5f and from a poor draw
* He has no form on ground this soft either
* I have fitness problems with the following
* SENATOR BONG - RISKY RIZKOVA - SOLEMN
* TORRES DEL PAINE looks short of runs
* ROYAL AWARD is too as a 4yo filly
* I couldn't bet her with just 4 runs and an absence
* TIME MEDICEAN is impossible to fancy
* IRISH BOY - No negative but career high mark
* I think he may struggle to win this with a 7lbs claimer

Shortlist

* STORM LIGHTNING - Enough to shortlist
* Perhaps a bit too much weight

* CELESTIAL BAY - Neutral profile
* She's quite inexperienced for a race like this
* Not a stable I'd trust as well

* THE STRIG- Winning 2 days ago makes him positive

* ITALIAN TOM - Recent run and good draw helps

Selection

ITALIAN TOM 7/1 Win Bet

THE STRIG 6/1 Saver






Beverley 3.00

9/4 Salford Secret, 9/2 Hulcolt, 6/1 Tears And Rain
7/1 Al Wuseil, 8/1 Gold Class, 12/1 Bold Captain
16/1 Company Secretary, 16/1 Galaxy, 16/1 Little Bruv
20/1 Irene Hull, 20/1 Mayfield Boy, 20/1 Tinchy Ryder
50/1 Notts So Blue, 100/1 Jacbequick.

This is a 2yo Auction Maiden over an extended 7f.
One of the annoying things here is the draw. The
last five races here with similar winners included
two horses drawn one and two in the highest stall.
Nobody knows. I like SALFORD SECRET's chance.
My reading is he is probably different class but a
complicated type that may need a race to be run
to suit. That opens up split stake options. I would
see HULCOLT. GOLD CASE and TEARS AND RAIN
all options as the place bet in any split stake with
the SALFORD SECRET the main selection. Equally
I wouldn't mind putting SALFORD SECRET in any
each way double. He's quirky but has substance.
I would make sure I don't lose if he wins at least.

Selection

SALFORD SECRET 6/4




Y a r m o u t h 3.10

5/2 Ribbons, 7/2 Hippy Hippy Shake, 9/2 Rock Choir
5/1 Shuruq, 14/1 Miss You Too, 16/1 Agent Allison
16/1 Close At Hand, 16/1 Jabhaat, 25/1 Semayyel
25/1 Spicy Dal, 33/1 Audacia.

* This is a Listed race for fillies over 10f
* Unusual race but it has a 20 year history
* The argument against RIBBONS is simple
* All 20 past winners had form in Listed-Group race
* RIBBONS does not have that
* He has to bridge that gap with the 2nd longest absence
* With just Class 2 form he isn't like any winners
* RIBBONS may win but at 2/1 I am looking elsewhere
* CLOSE AT HAND also lacks the required backclass
* JABHAAT also fails as well
* SPICY DAL doesn't come out well as a 3yo from 12f
* AUDACIA is too short of runs this year
* SEMAYYEL won this last year at 125/1
* I don't see lightning striking twice
* MISS YOU TOO isn't offering enough at the moment

Possibles

* ROCK CHOIR must have an each way chance

* HIPPY HIPPY SHAKE also has every right to win

* SHURUQ has a fine chance on form but 2 problems
* Will he handle the ground ?
* Will he stay 10f on soft ground ?
* I looked at all horses sired by Elusive Quality
* Those that ran over 10f + on G-Soft or worse were 1-38
* That stamina doubt pushes me elsewhere

* AGENT ALLISON - I don't like that she comes from 7f
* Last years winner also came from 7f though
* That relaxes me and she has some smart form
* Excuses most of the year in better Grade
* AGENT ALLISON could be a player here

Selection

AGENT ALLISON 14/1 Win Bet

ROCK CHOIR 8/1 Win Bet

HIPPY HIPPY SHAKE 4/1 Saver



S a n d o w n 3.55

6/4 Wentworth, 11/4 Penitent, 13/2 Aesop´s Fables
13/2 Bana Wu, 10/1 Validus, 12/1 Westwiththenight
14/1 Boomshackerlacker.

This is a Listed race over a mile. Connections have
said that WENTWORTH wants soft ground but he's a
3yo and absent 47 days. The 3yo winners of this had
more recent runs. WENTWORTH is not a negative at
all statistically but he has never been in pattern class
before. PENITENT likes the mud and although he's a
7 year old he has Group 1 form and a recent race so
I'd be slightly favouring PENITENT to win this race.

Selection

PENITENT 7/4

Win Bet




B e v e r l e y 4.10

5/1 Beau Mistral, Modern Lady, 6/1 Majestic Manannan
8/1 Choc´a´moca, 8/1 Master Bond, 10/1 Dark Opal
10/1 Medici Time, 10/1 Scentpastparadise, 12/1 Fathsta
12/1 Willbeme, 20/1 Chunky Diamond, M J Woodward
20/1 Mitchum.

* This is a 5f handicap
* The Draw isn't clear but one thing stood out
* From similar races horses drawn 1-9 seem best
* There's been 18 races since a horse drawn 10 + has won
* Just running a few profiles in this race
* One of the interesting angles is last time performance
* In 16 similar Beverley handicaps
* Horses beaten 5 + lengths last time out were just 1-73
* I'd want a fit and in form horse
* The last 15 winners of this race all ran within 19 days
* MODERN LADY is a 3yo filly with 22 runs
* Look at 3yo fillies with 15 or more career starts
* Those that did not run within the last 3 weeks
* Horses with this profile were 0-62
* MODERN LADY fails this and looks wrong
* MEDICI TIME didn't offer me enough
* WILLBEME is a mare absent 92 days and underraced
* DARK OPAL - No negative but not first choice
* CHOC´A´MOCA doesn't appeal either
* His record in August-November is 0-22
* He is 0-20 when racing in this class and higher
* MASTER BOND is 4 and has an absence
* I looked at all similar 4 year olds
* They all had far more runs that season than him
* MASTER BOND with 2 runs this year is underraced
* CHUNKY DIAMOND - Too risky and not drawn well

Shortlist

* BEAU MISTRAL is an exposed 4yo filly from 6f
* With a recent run there were 2 similar winners
* BEAU MISTRAL is shortlisted but has no track form

* MAJESTIC MANANNAN - Profile find 2 similar winners
* He also has no track form
* Expect him to burst out fast and lead

Selection

MAJESTIC MANANNAN 6/1 Win Bet
BEAU MISTRAL 6/1 Saver Bet



* LISTOWEL 4.35 is a Novice Hurdle
* I was looking at Bally Longford e/w
* No preview or selection down to time issues



Y a r m o u t h 4.55

11/4 Jamaican Bolt, 9/2 Exceptionelle
11/2 Goldream, 6/1 Judge ´n Jury, 7/1 Storm Moon
8/1 Peace Seeker, 16/1 First In Command
16/1 Normal Equilibrium, 16/1 Prohibit
20/1 Free Zone, 20/1 Jiroft, 20/1 Top Boy.

* This is a Class 2 Handicap over 5f
* There are 35 of these races in September
* Some interesting issues in this race
* JAMAICAN BOLT is a nice prospect but not for me
* He has 1 run this year and none of 25 winners did that
* JAMAICAN BOLT also has 172 days absence
* All 35 winners ran within the past 37 days
* JAMAICAN BOLT as a 5yo could be underraced
* Horses aged 4 haven't done that well
* In 35 of these races they are just 3-88
* All 3 winners had form in Group Class before
* Horses aged 4 with no Group Class form were 0-33
* GOLDREAM fails that statistic
* PROHIBIT just doesn't look ready to win yet
* I looked at 3 year old winners in these races
* Horses aged 3 that won tended to have under 13 runs
* Horses aged 3 with 14 or more runs were just 1-35
* STORM MOON is a bit too exposed for a 3yo
* I'd avoid him coming from a Class 4 race
* TOP BOY has the same problems and is also rejected
* JIROFT doesn't seem to be running well enough
* FIRST IN COMMAND was beaten yesterday
* As he is 8 and up two grades I am ignoring him
* EXCEPTIONELLE is a 3yo filly
* I looked at all races won by 3yo fillies
* None had as few as 5 runs like her
* None were absent anywhere near as her
* With 63 days off and 2 runs this year I don't want her

Shortlist

* JUDGE ´N JURY is 9 and has a recent run
* I looked at all winners aged 8 or more
* They all had recent runs as he does
* They all came from 6f races though and he doesn't
* JUDGE ´N JURY - Not like any winners but respected

* NORMAL EQUILIBRIUM is a bit exposed for a 3yo
* Unlikely winner but I can't rule him out

* FREE ZONE is 4 but the right type of 4yo
* Thats because he has Group Class form

Selection

FREE ZONE 12/1 Each Way
NORMAL EQUILIBRIUM 12/1 Each Way



* LISTOWEL 5.10 is the Kerry National
* I ran some very weak angles for this shortlist
* Quantitativeeasing - Jacksonslady
* Terminal - Sweet My Lord
* Don't feel confident about this race



* Kempton 6.15 is a 10f Nursery
* I didn't want a horse with 2 runs but they dominate
* JELLY FISH - STAGEMANSHIP are 2/1 joint favourites
* They may have nothing to beat so I'm wary
* I just don't think 2 runs is ideal at this trip. No Selection.

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