No Bets


T o d a y 's M e s s a g e

Normally I would do a Sunday Message and then
take a break on Monday but this week I am going
to change the midweek schedule. I was tempted
to break and leave the message today and ignore
one after a gruelling and disappointing Saturday
message. Despite the Options showing a healthy
profit in the last few days a poor Saturday is still
one of my pet hates and do take some forgetting.

Sunday

No Bets today just half a message. See it as half
a day off and a quick summarises look at 5 races.


Monday

Message tomorrow. It looks like Monday will be
badly affected by the weather but that can give
us opportunity as well as risk so I intend to do a
Normal Message and have a crack at tomorrow.


Tuesday

Probably be a split message. I am planning a
research day. I intend to do some statistics or
systems for National Hunt racing in November.
I will try to find some solid Generic Statistics
and I want to do some Ante Post work too not
least on the Paddy Power Gold Cup. Depends
on how that goes. I will send a Message with
any findings and if I see a race I like perhaps
at Exeter I might combine a research-preview
message on Tuesday. I'm Leaving plans open.
Most likely scenario is a combined message.

Wednesday onwards will be as normal for
the rest of the week. In terms of today I am
just having a bet free summarised message.



S a t u r d a y 's S u m m a r y

Rough Saturday yesterday and a disappointing one.
It started frustratingly with some bad luck but then it
started to find some winners and form but it petered
out badly towards the end and that included both of
my options which lost. MOHAWK RIDGE decided that
he would set a strong pace and he went head to toe
with his main danger. They both finished miles clear
of the 3rd but we were badly outstayed. The winner
is from a very clever trainer. I drive past his stables
almost every day but it's hidden and your not aware
of it and if I owned horses I would place them there.
I went with fitness angles in both bets but these did
not work out. LINE DRUMMER and the saver did not
deliver either and later results turned it into a flop.
Giving a bad Saturday message is one of the worst
parts of the job and I feel I have to call it a bad one.

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P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W



B a t h 1.30

Don't know enough about the runners in this race.
Forced to choose BLACK RODDED appealed more.



B a t h 2.00

This is 2yo maiden of 5f. This is about whether the
favourite CHARLES MOLSON can handle a drop in
trip and soft ground. His numbers are dominant so
I would not want to oppose him myself.



B a t h 2.30

Not enough statistical edge here in a 2m 1f race
for 3 year olds. Hardly any similar races but all
of them were won by horses with 7-13 runs with
at least 4 runs that year and LUCKSTER doesn't
have that. Lots of hard to read stamina problems.
I thought CANDOLUMINESCENCE was the one if
he stays. I don't know if he will but like him best.




K e m p t o n 2.45

4/6 Dodging Bullets, 7/2 Turn Over Sivola
13/2 Earls Quarter, 10/1 Be All Man
11/1 Grab The Glory.

* This is a 2m Beginners Chase
* DODGING BULLETS has the best hurdles form
* No reason why he shouldn't win if he jumps
* I ran his profile carefully as a 5 year old
* There were 4 horses with identical profiles
* They finished 2 5 W 2 so no problems there
* Two of the 4 losers did come in this race
* There is a better profile though
* TURN OVER SIVOLA is the 2nd best hurdler
* He actually has the best profile in the race
* I looked at all 2m Novice and Beginners Chase
* Male horses aged 6
* Coming from Handicap Hurdles in Class 3 +
* First Time out
* Starting under 66/1
* Between 6 and 8 previous hurdle starts
* Chasing debutants
* There were 14 horses with this profile
* They finished W W 5 W 2 W 3 W W 6 W W 4 W
* TURN OVER SIVOLA may well not have the class
* He bumps into a better horse
* That said he is a much better price
* He also has a stronger profile and is a year older
* There is a fair case for the following bet

TURN OVER SIVOLA 4/1

Each Way




B a t h 3.00

11/2 Royal Dutch, 6/1 Gerrards Cross,
7/1 Kashgar, 8/1 Abundantly, 9/1 Laser Blazer
Candyman Can, 14/1 Paloma´s Prince
16/1 Sunny Future 16/1 Whipcrackawa
18/1 Cottesmore20/1 One Pursuit.

Not many 13f races are run so my angles might
be blunted. Since 2006 Bath have had 19 races
over 1m 5f when 10 or more horses run. In these
19 races horses drawn 1-2-3 have a 0-50 record.
I think there is a case for avoiding the low stalls
so KASHGAR and ROYAL DUTCH both fancied in
the betting will be tested. PALOMA´S PRINCE is
also badly drawn. GERRARDS CROSS only has
3 career starts. Complicated profile. I can't make
him a negative but my angles say his type have
a good record when absent about half as long
as him but none won absent as long and I don't
like him as my choice. WHIPCRACKAWAY looks
underraced recently. COTTESMORE is not right.
ONE PURSUIT is underraced. There are a few
that can't be ruled out but don't appeal much.
I can't rule out SUNNY FUTURE but he's unsafe.
LASER BLAZER is quite shortlistable
but the strongest profile was ABUNDANTLY and
I don't mind 4yo fillies in this race. Competitive
race but ABUNDANTLY each way is my choice.

Selection

ABUNDANTLY 9/2

Each Way



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