No Bets Today




T o d a y 's M e s s a g e

Heavy Rain yesterday and the ground has gone
on the soft side at Leicester and Worcester and
it would be no surprise if other tracks had softer
ground than advertised. The weather will make
the racing later in the week interesting. We had
some bad weather here last night and for some
reason we had some mini - power cuts and that
was frustrating as I had to reboot the computer
several times and my study was a bit stop start.

That set todays message on a certain trajectory
and results will tell if I lost control. I didn't have
enough time to fit everything in so it is what it
is today and the tail has wagged the dog a bit
too much for my liking so go careful today. It's
a message where I have nothing strong to bet.

Not a good message but as good as I could do.




Today's Options


I'm certainly not going to put a win double up
on the account but I think both these will win.

Catterick 2.00 - AUGUSTA ADA 8/11
Leicester 7.45 - PORT ALFRED 2/5

Win Double around 11/8



Lingfield 2.40

FLOATING BALLERINO 6/4

I think this should just about win but common
sense does tempt me to consider placing him
in an each way double for that extra safety.


Leicester 6.40

MANDY THE NAG 6/4 Win Bet

This had the potential to be the best bet today.
I say potential because his sire Proud Citizen's
not the sort you would want if the ground turns
soft. I can't suggest him as a bet this early in a
day. You may have to watch a few races to see
how the ground rides at Leicester and if it looks
like the rain has got in then reduce or cancel a
bet. If it's still on the quick side then bet him.

That is unsatisfactory I know. I don't have any
bet that I think is safe enough for an account
bet at a reasonable price so today I'm leaving
the account alone. The Top of the message is
not as clear as I'd like today so I'm suggesting
the following bet as the best option from todays
message. I never really got a chance to do the
message I wanted with the weather disrupting.


Today's Best Bet from the message


Lingfield 2.40 - FLOATING BALLERINO 6/4

Leicester 6.40 - MANDY THE NAG 6/4

Leicester 7.45 - PORT ALFRED 2/5

3 x Win Doubles





M o n d a y s R e v i e w

There was no message yesterday so just Monday
to review. A bet free day but Fitz Flyer the horse
I highlighted as the main bet in the message won
well. Just a mini message but also a winning one.

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P r o f i l e s @ P r e v i e w s



C a t t e r i c k 2.00

4/6 Augusta Ada, 11/4 Pure Amber, 9/2 Song Of Rowland
8/1 Romantic Bliss, 12/1 Sukari Gold, 14/1 Goadby
20/1 Breakable, 20/1 Meconopsis.

It's a shame that AUGUSTA ADA is odds on when he
was forecast to be odds against. He has done enough
to be expected to win this race. I like the fact he has
improved his Racing Post Ratings on 3 times in a row.
He sets more than a good enough standard to win this
sort of race especially with an unraced 2nd favourite.

We can't control the market. There is a similar issue
in the Leicester 7.45pm with PORT ALFRED who is a
far shorter price than I wanted. There are worse bets
than to double this pair up. Win Doubles are amongst
the least attractive of bets but at 8/11 and 2/5 should we
get both winners it comes out as an 11/8 winner which
isn't too bad. I would much rather bet it than lay it.

Catterick 2.00 - AUGUSTA ADA
Leicester 7.45 - PORT ALFRED
Win Double around 11/8




L i n g f i e l d 2.10

4/5 Limegrove, 2/1 Instant Attraction, 14/1 M´lady Ermyn
16/1 Hannah Louise, 25/1 Bright Society.

This is a 2yo claimer and not a nicely framed race
with 7 runners. Looks a 2 horse race and the thing
that bothers me about LIMEGROVE is that she has
now put in two weak performances which included
a moody display in the stalls and her numbers are
regressive. I'd prefer INSTANT ATTRACTION of the
two. Go back far enough and LIMEGROVE has the
best form and looks the class horse. However if we
stay with recent form INSTANT ATTRACTION could
well have overtaken her and she does look safer.

Selection - INSTANT ATTRACTION 4/5




C a t t e r i c k 2.30

3/1 Currently Inlondon, 7/2 Mr Childrey, 7/2 Smart Payer
9/2 Astral Pursuits, 9/2 Frost In May, 12/1 Artistic Acclaim.

This 7f 2yo seller is too complicated. Ran the profiles
and nothing stood out. I was surprised FROST IN MAY
came out a fraction ahead of ASTRAL PURSUITS but
not enough for any significance. It feels a bit silly that
CURRENTLY INLONDON was favourite in the paper as
she has finished last on both starts at huge prices and
it's clearly a case of being priced up on the stable and
she is a negative. SMART PAYER has been the gamble
after badly missing the break 6 days ago. Statistically I
do find some problems with his profile. All horses like
him that overcame heavy defeats had a much longer
break and this seems quite soon after that defeat. Not
for me at the price now without a winner found with a
similar profile. ARTISTIC ACCLAIM doesn't appeal and
is another horse to avoid. MR CHILDREY is shortlistable
on his profile without easily seeing why. I think the bet
may be a split stake bet on two horses. If we get some
3/1 on FROST IN MAY and ASTRAL PURSUITS it means
we have evens or better about either winning and that
would be my choice of bet in this desperate contest.



L i n g f i e l d 2.40

13/8 Floating Ballerino, 7/4 Yellow Emperor, 12/1 My Anchor
14/1 Moonspring, 14/1 Mount Cheiron, 14/1 Rural Affair
16/1 Trip To Paris, 20/1 Hostile Takeover, 20/1 Lupara,
Sheila´s Footsteps, 33/1 Charleys Angel, 33/1 Walta
66/1 Commanding Force, 66/1 Storm Of Choice.

This is a 7f maiden. Not too many can win this. I do not
like TRIP TO PARIS who didn't achieve enough last time
and will want more runs. MOUNT CHEIRON hasn't done
nearly enough yet and SHEILA´S FOOTSTEPS also has
too much improvement to make. This should be a match
between unraced YELLOW EMPEROR and twice raced
FLOATING BALLERINO. Jeremy Noseda has won this in
2008 with a debutant but he was the only one that so far
won this race first time out. FLOATING BALLERINO looks
safer. Has a better draw and more experience. He could
well be the type to have in an each way double but short
of that he has improved enough from his first run to his
second run to set a reasonable standard. Both races did
come on Grade 1 tracks and I prefer him to the others.

Selection

FLOATING BALLERINO 7/4



C a t t e r i c k 3.00

5/2 Crowdmania, 5/1 Milly´s Secret, 6/1 Senorita Guest
6/1 Street Boss, 7/1 Kraka Gym, 8/1 Flora Medici
8/1 Sakhalin Star, 16/1 It´s All A Game, 25/1 Baltic Fire.

This is a 7f Nursery. There are worse bets than Topweight
MILLY´S SECRET each way. I suppose CROWDMANIA has
every chance of beating her getting weight but Catterick
is a tricky track and that extra run MILLY´S SECRET has is
valuable and could make the difference and given she's
twice the price I think that's a better bet. I wouldnt want
to be with KRAKA GYM or STREET BOSS. I don't see too
much wrong with SENORITA GUEST much as the record
of similar types is better when they have won before and
she has not. She could well be worth considering in any
split stake bet. In the end MILLY´S SECRET each way did
appeal as the best option in the race as she is genuine
and has also shown that she cam act on this course.




L i n g f i e l d 4.10

7/2 Slip Of The Tongue, 7/2 Sultanah Heyam
5/1 Duchess Of Gazeley, 5/1 Sunbula, 6/1 Astrum
6/1 Miss Mitigate, 20/1 Money Talks, 20/1 Paddy´s Saltantes.

* This is a 12f handicap for 0-75 rated horses
* SULTANAH HEYAM is a filly from a 12f maiden
* Fillies beaten last time in 12f maidens with 3 runs are 0-17
* SULTANAH HEYAM doesn't appeal
* MONEY TALKS started 66/1 in a Bath maiden
* That suggests limitations and he isn't safe enough
* MISS MITIGATE hasn't done enough yet
* PADDY´S SALTANTES looks unsafe
* SLIP OF THE TONGUE has a chance
* Bothers me he has just 1 run this season
* Every other runner has more than he has
* There are winners with 1 run that season
* Most were fillies though and he isn't
* Wasn't a profile that impressed me much
* DUCHESS OF GAZELEY is a filly who won last time
* Her profile suggests she may want another run this year
* Especially when trying to follow up a win over 3 weeks ago
* Stall 1 is not certain to help her either
* SUNBULA looks shortlistable and is an option
* ASTRUM could also be a threat here
* Slightly up in class he has a bit to prove
* There is evidence he is slowly improving though
* He has a lot more runs this year on his side as well
* ASTRUM may just be worth the risk each way
* Not the sort I'd want at the top of the message
* Not from a small yard against 4 powerful stables

Selection

ASTRUM 5/1 Each Way




Catterick 4.30

No preview. No Selection. May be worth closely
watching LAYLA´S HERO here and putting him
in any horses to follow list. He is shooting down
the handicap fast and is now thrown in off his
current rating. All his wins come between July
and October so we are entering his ideal time
of the year. Two runs ago he had an impossible
draw at Thirsk. He is running himself fit. Not sure
if this is his ideal track. He has never won yet on
a left handed track with a bend. Statistically he's
not far away but needs more runs this year. He's
not safe statistically and my angles say avoid him
today but I wont be surprised if he wins because
of his handicap mark. Best plan today is only to
watch him and get ready to bet him quite soon
and hope he doesn't win today.




L e i c e s t e r 5.40

7/1 Stormbound 8/1 Adiator, 8/1 Boy The Bell
10/1 Benandonner 10/1 Rio Cobolo, 10/1 Sairaam
12/1 Hail Promenader 12/1 Ishiamiracle, 12/1 Lil Sophella
16/1 Arachnophobia 16/1 King Of Wing, 25/1 Harting Hill
25/1 Medecis Mountain, 33/1 Lordship, 33/1 Wing N Prayer.

* This is a 7f Amateur Riders Handicap
* Some of the problems here are few similar races
* No Draw advantage you can trust
* I predict the winner will match the following
* They will be aged 4-5-6-7-8-9 and come from a handicap
* They will have had at least 4 runs this season
* They will have ran at least once in the last 7 weeks
* They will have at least 10 career starts
* They will come from 6f-9f last time out
* If coming from 6f they will be aged 4-5 with Class 2 form
* There are 5 horses that pass these angles
* Stormbound - Rio Cobolo- Ishiamiracle
* Boy The Bell - Hail Promenader
* ADIATOR the favourite only has 5 career starts
* Very rare for one of these races to go to her type
* Trying to narrow this shortlist down now
* Almost all winners had at least 2 runs in the last 7 weeks
* STORMBOUND - HAIL PROMENADER may be short of runs
* STORMBOUND has raced just once in 63 days
* HAIL PROMENADER has raced once in 61 days
* Most winners had 2 + runs in the last 47 days
* ISHIAMIRACLE - Would have preferred a more recent run

Shortlist

* RIO COBOLO - Unsafe profile but is respected with recent run
* He has had some excuses for some of his weaker runs
* BOY THE BELL - Chances if the highest draw is a help

Selection

RIO COBOLO 10/1 Win Bet
BOY THE BELL 6/1 Win Bet



L e i c e s t e r 6.10

No strong views. I would be reluctant to oppose the
recent winner SEDENOO who could easily win again,



L e i c e s t e r 6.40

15/8 Mandy The Nag, 3/1 Reconsider Baby
9/2 Scala Romana, 13/2 Nordikhab, 9/1 Suspension
12/1 Tornado Battle, 14/1 Moorway, 20/1 One In A Thousand.

* This is a 3yo seller over a Mile
* There are 32 similar races at this time of year
* Lightly raced horses don't score well
* I looked at horses with 1-2-3-4 career starts
* These horses have a disappointing 2-97 record
* Both were fillies one of these was flattered
* The other won this race last year
* I certainly don't want an inexperienced male
* TORNADO BATTLE fails that
* ONE IN A THOUSAND is far too inexperienced
* MOORWAY isn't showing enough
* NORDIKHAB doesn't look like he has trained on
* His profile isn't too bad to be fair and is down in class
* He just isn't inspiring confidence at the moment
* SCALA ROMANA may want another run or two
* SUSPENSION is short of a recent run and backclass
* RECONSIDER BABY has an unsafe/neutral profile
* She was hammered in a claimer last time
* I could have matched her had that been a handicap
* Drawn 1 on Fibresand debut last time is a fair excuse
* She still got beaten a very long way though
* MANDY THE NAG - Pound for Pound best profile
* Biggest danger could be softer ground
* On Soft I'd avoid him on Fast I'd back him hard
* The ground should be between the two
* Has to be a common sense approach
* If it looks like it's cutting up then reduce stakes
* There are no sensible options elsewhere

Selection

MANDY THE NAG 6/4 Win Bet



L e i c e s t e r 7.45

PORT ALFRED should win this easily. Interesting he is
dropped to 5f. Old-timers like me should remember his
grand dam Clantime a sprinter. Shock if he gets beat.



S a n d o w n 8.40

3/1 Bridgehampton, 7/2 Porcini, 5/1 Spice Fair
6/1 English Summer, 7/1 Into The Wind, 8/1 Admirable Duque
8/1 Cosimo De Medici, 25/1 Good Boy Jackson.

This is a 14f handicap and a classy little race. My angles
tell me I can't trust BRIDGEHAMPTON first time out much
as he looks well handicapped and progressive. I wasn't
sold on last time out winner PORCINI. It was a good run
but she is a 4yo filly and is up in class and in weight and
throw in a months absence after a win its asking quite a
lot of her. ADMIRABLE DUQUE doesn't come out that well.
I don't like INTO THE WIND's lack of backclass for a mare
who is quite short of runs this season anyway.

* COSIMO DE MEDICI - Keep on side but more likely winners
* SPICE FAIR - Won in 2011 and profile says not out of it
* ENGLISH SUMMER - Good chance and shortlisted

Selection

ENGLISH SUMMER

Each Way if 8 run
Otherwise win only and save on Spice Fair

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