No Full Bet today

No Top of the Message Bet

8 Previews



I n s i d e T o d a y 's M e s s a g e

There was no message yesterday which will
help us next week. Preparations going very
well. I spent much of yesterday on races we
dont normally focus on trying to plan things.

It's so important to strike early at the festival
but I feel I have good chances on all 4 days
this year. We can be confident and prepared
but you can never tell what will happen and
with 5 days to go we dont know enough yet
about the likely ground or who runs in what
race just yet. The most important thing to do
is make sure we dont waste money betting
bad horses before the meeting starts. That
would be criminal so I dont intend to arrive
at the meeting having rushed into rash bets.


Eight previews. A Workmanlike message so
nothing that will get the spine tingling. This
feels just a straight forward midweek effort.



Todays Best Options

Before you think a rush of blood has gone
to my head I've no intention of going with
any each way double today never mind a
more stressfull three each way doubles so
this is not a bet. I do like these 3 horses.

Carlisle 3.15 - WITNESS IN COURT Evens

Southwell 3.55 - ON WITH THE DANCE 11/4

Wincanton 4.05 - KARINGA DANCER 6/4

I think any combination of these work well
for each way doubles. If you like this style
of bet and you want one then I would not
put you off. Its the wrong bet at the wrong
time for me though so its not an official bet.



Southwell 5.00

DORBACK 4/1 Win Bet

ROYAL BAJAN 4/1 Saver Bet


I may be wrong but I wasnt convinced this
race had the right favourite. I am opposing
her and I prefer both of these. Its not a well
framed race but at 4/1 and 4/1 its not too bad.


All I am doing today is just top of the message
Window Shopping rather than staking bets. It
should be a message that has a few winners
but it's workmanlike and nothing draws me in.




T u e s d a y 's R e v i e w

With no message on Wednesday that leaves
just Tuesday to review. Overall it was quite a
dissapointing effort. There were six previews
and the selections finished 4 4 5 4 2 2. Rather
too many just failed to place. I went with two
horses in each way singles and doubles. The
horses finished 4th and 2nd. We managed a
place with Victor Hewgo. He probably should
have won the race given that he allowed the
winner first run. That managed to return 40%
of our stake so we just lost over half a stake
on the bet. That was probably more than we
deserved on the day. It just didn't impress as
a message and one or two dissapointments
so I am pleased just to get something back.

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P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S


S o u t h w e l l 2.20

6/4 Jack Dawkins, 5/2 Goldmadchen
5/2 Xpres Maite, 20/1 Houdini Bright
20/1 Isola Bella, 25/1 General Tufto
25/1 There´s No Rules.

This is a 12f selling race. 48 hours ago over a
trip of 11f JACK DAWKINS managed to beat an
odds on GOLDMADCHEN and both run again
and I would imagine one of these should win
this race. I wasnt keen on XPRES MAITE as a
10 year old thats raced once in 121 days and
I think the other horses are likely to strip fitter.
GOLDMADCHEN was expected to win just two
days ago but he was beaten 6 lengths easily.
Whilst he has a weight pull today I think the
safer bet is JACK DAWKINS who also has far
more backclass. I thought he'd win again.

Selection

JACK DAWKINS 11/8





S o u t h w e l l 2.50

3/1 Very First Blade, 7/1 Illustrious Lad
7/1 Upper Lambourn 8/1 Onceaponatime
8/1 Pull The Pin 12/1 Ryedale Dancer
16/1 Bachelor Knight 16/1 Ishi, 16/1 Sofias Number One
33/1 Captain Cavallo, 50/1 Ring Of Fire.

* This is a 6f handicap for 0-52 rated horses
* You dont want the very highest draws in this race
* SOFIAS NUMBER ONE has a bad draw
* Thats alonsgide a Weak profile
* BACHELOR KNIGHT isnt to bad statistically
* My only real concern is Stall 1
* I looked at recent 6f handicaps here with 10 + runners
* Winners were drawn in these positions
* 10 10 12 7 9 1 11 9 10 9 4 5 3 11 2 4 3 6 2 3 2 2 9 2 10 6 13
* The last 3 were high draws as were 9 of the last 10
* One horse won from Stall 1 but higher draws did best
* I have fitness issues with the following
* CAPTAIN CAVALLO - RING OF FIRE
* PULL THE PIN wouldnt be my first choice
* Not coming from a 5f maiden
* UPPER LAMBOURN could have been better drawn
* I would have liked a more recent race too
* His profile and draw leave him unsafe
* ISHI is wrong as a filly hammered last time

Possibles

* RYEDALE DANCER is an exposed 5yo mare
* I found 1 similar winner with less weight
* I cant rule her out but she isnt proven here

* ILLUSTRIOUS LAD has a decent profile
* I could easily fancy him with this profile
* His only real flaw is no Southwell form
* His Sires bred 34 Southwell winners
* His runners do score better at other tracks

* VERY FIRST BLADE is 4
* He won a 6f handicap last time out
* I looked at similar 4 year olds
* There were 7 winners doing this
* 4 of these had under 13 runs
* 3 of these had more than 21 runs
* None like VERY FIRST BLADE had 13-19 runs
* VERY FIRST BLADE with 17 runs isnt a perfect match
* I still see him as an overall positive
* ONCEAPONATIME has a strong chance
* He may be 8 but he's well treated and proven here
* There are winners like him and his draws fine


Selection

ONCEAPONATIME 4/1

Win Bet



W i n c a n t o n 3.00

7/4 If In Doubt, 3/1 Suerte Al Salto
5/1 Chesil Beach Boy, 11/2 Jumps Road, 8/1 The Pier
11/1 Mighty Monty, Dragon´s Den, 25/1 Tiger O´toole.

This is a 2m Handicap Hurdle. Given the frame
of the race and his inexperience and given the
ammount of decent handicap form many have
I would be inclined to oppose IF IN DOUBT. He
is not a negative as I did find a winner that was
reasonably similar but I wasnt blown away with
him. There is too much Class 2 and Class 3 form
against him. THE PIER could go well and has a
good profile but he finds it hard to win with and
is a dissapointing sort and I'm not sure I'd want
a very inexperienecd jockey on that kind of bet.
CHESIL BEACH BOY is an option but may want
a step up in trip. I just prefer SUERTE AL SALTO
each way as an improving Novice Handicapper.

Selection

SUERTE AL SALTO 4/1 +

Each Way



C a r l i s l e 3.15

7/4 Witness In Court, 5/2 Big Water
11/1 Rocknrollrambo, 12/1 Scarlet Fire, 14/1 Sorcier
14/1 Standintheband, 16/1 Ueueteotl, 25/1 Damascus
Steel, 33/1 Northern Oscar, 33/1 Old Devereux
33/1 Tiny Dancer, 33/1 Two Oscars.

This is a Novice Hurdle just short of 2m 4f and it
is shaping up like a match. No statistical issues
with either of the two main runners but I prefer
to be with WITNESS IN COURT. He looks more
substantial to me. Donald McCain should know
where he strands with BIG WATER as he had a
horse that was just behind him last time out so
has a good line to the form. BIG WATER is quite
a nice prospect but WITNESS IN COURT has to
be the choice. He has much more proven form.

Selection

WITNESS IN COURT 10/11 +



S o u t h w e l l 3.55

7/4 Aryal, 9/4 On With The Dance, 3/1 Derby To Dubai
20/1 Santorini Sunset, 25/1 Woodley Wonder
33/1 Aura Bora, 33/1 Solarmaite, 50/1 Munaawib
66/1 Running On Faith, 100/1 Supastarqueen.

This is a maiden race over a Mile. I looked at all
similar races between January and Match and no
3 year old like ARYAL dropped from 12f to win so
I dont see him as safe. You can also argue he has
been beaten 4 times at 2/5 6/4 2/9 3/1 and has no
Southwell form. Given the uncompetetive frame
of the race I'd oppose him each way. Statistically
I can find just 1 winner like DERBY TO DUBAI and
he is popular in the market. I dont like that when
he raced on his debut he finished behind a horse
that was 100/1 and rated only 30 which draws me
more towards ON WITH THE DANCE. I would see
him as a good each way bet around 5/2 but there
is a doubt he will be that price so otherwise a win.

Selection

ON WITH THE DANCE 9/4

* Each Way if 5/2
* Otherwise Win Only
* Alternately this option does appeal


Southwell 3.55 - ON WITH THE DANCE 9/4
Wincanton 4.05 - KARINGA DANCER 6/4

Each Way Double




W i n c a n t o n 4.05

5/4 Karinga Dancer, 9/4 Even If, 3/1 The Stout Italian
10/1 Kentford Legend, 20/1 Calusa Comet
20/1 Rule Of Thumb, 25/1 Classical Twist
25/1 Just Spot, 33/1 Cloudy Start, Runaway Green
66/1 Carheney River, 66/1 Lanarkshire
100/1 Bedibyes, 150/1 Corton Ridge
150/1 Over The Rubicon, 150/1 Percy Lewis
200/1 Bovs Castle, 200/1 Rode Runner.

There look to be 3 runners in this maiden hurdle
and whilst none have problem free profiles I am
drawn more to KARINGA DANCER who could just
be the better horse. He may be a sensiblle horse
to have in an each way double but it doesnt feel
one of those must bets. KARINGA DANCER looks
the most likely winner to me given the opposition.

Selection

KARINGA DANCER 6/4



S o u t h w e l l 5.00

2/1 Aubrietia, 4/1, 5/1 Dorback, 5/1 Royal Bajan
8/1 Gorgeous Goblin 10/1 Six Wives
14/1 Crown Choice, Rylee Mooch.

This is a 5f handicap for 0-84 rated horses. Shame
there is only 7 runners now as thats spoilt an each
way bet. I wasn't keen on AUBRIETIA. She won on
her last run but that was 30 days ago and it was a
6f race as well and as an exposed 4yo filly I can't
match her to any winners. AUBRIETIA has moved
now to a career high mark and she hasnt shown
enough beforehand to think she can win this race
with Topweight. CROWN CHOICE looks too old to
win this as an 8yo. RYLEE MOOCH doesnt offer a
great deal. GORGEOUS GOBLIN is also not well
treated and has an unorthadox profile. I wanted
more from SIX WIVES as an exposed mare with
a months absence. DORBACK and ROYAL BAJAN
standout to me. I want ROYAL BAJAN as a saver
as he clearly went off too fast last time out and
is capable of more. DORBACK has a solid profile.

Selection

DORBACK 4/1 Win Bet
ROYAL BAJAN 5/1 Saver Bet




W i n c a n t o n 5.10

9/4 Sulpius, 3/1 For The Staff, 3/1 Special Robon
6/1 Venetian Lad, 14/1 Whispering Jack
16/1 Arctic Watch, 16/1 Minella Ranger

This is a 2m 5f Novice Handicap Chase. I looked
at all horses that ran over 3m 1f or more last time
out like SULPIUS. None of these won and it was
younger horses that tended to overcome this half
a mile drop in trip. I wouldnt make him a serious
negative but I wanted more given his short odds
and given the frame of the race. I am presuming
that WHISPERING JACK will need another race
or two before he reaches fitness. I think the best
options are FOR THE STAFF and VENETIAN LAD.
I see FOR THE STAFF as safer but I also like the
fact VENETIAN LAD ran yesterday and well. He's
impossible to judge statistically so Include both.

Selection

VENETIAN LAD 7/1 + Win Bet
FOR THE STAFF 4/1 Win Bet

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