No Full Bet Today

2 Top of the message bets


I n s i d e T o d a y 's M e s s a g e

2 Top of the message bets

Wolverhampton 2.45

PARTY PALACE 12/1

Each Way



Wolverhampton 3.50

AZRAEL 7/2 Win Bet

CLASSIC COLORI 4/1 Saver


Doncaster offers some rare quality racing for
a Monday. The first half of the card is decent
and very interesting. The second half beyond
us and really out of reach and not worth any
analysis. Wolverhampton has an fair card as
well. Nine previews today with 5 at Doncaster
and 4 at Wolverhampton so a decent Monday.


Today's Bets

Doncaster is interesting but doesnt offer me
a bet. I am very interested to see if the 1.50
will confirm my statistics which tell me that
Aaim To Prosper is beatable. I've gone with
hurdling debutant Zuider Zee instead. There
is a high class hurdle at 3pm. My statistics
point to Darlan being Rock On Ruby but as
betting races I'm ignoring Doncasters card.


Wolverhampton 2.45

PARTY PALACE 12/1

Each Way

Initially I was tempted to go with SCRIBE
as the favourite might not stay. I was not
sure how reliable that was as a bet. One
option was to match SCRIBE with my bet
in the 3.50pm AZRAEL. I was planning to
have an each way double with two small
win savers on each horse. Then I decided
to bet PARTY PALACE each way. I think
she's better value having form with Scribe
but also having another very recent race
where she was badly drawn. Shes risky
but I think she is worth the bet each way.


Wolverhampton 3.50

AZRAEL 7/2 Win Bet

CLASSIC COLORI 4/1 Saver

This 7f selling race throws up a horse with
a W W W profile so AZRAEL has to be a
big runner. I do like him each way but he's
mainly 7/2 and there is undue pressure on
the price. I have saved on Classic Colori at
4/1 but its not as safe as an each way bet.
I would have prefered that but these prices
are a bit tight so I have gone with a saver.



S u n d a y 's R e v i e w

Quiet Sunday without much to go with. There
was a Novelty bet. Those that followed that to
the end would have lost. Those that decided
to cash in half way would have won. Nothing
came close to a bet though and it was more
of a wind down message to end the week.

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P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S


D o n c a s t e r 1.20

Mares novice hurdle iand the race is hijacked by the
odds on UTOPIE DES BORDES from France. I think
she probably should win but is the right price. I cant
bet her at the price given there is an unraced Group
horse on the flat in CRACKING LASS and others in
the race with quality. The only way I could see a bet
would be CRACKING LASS place only but I'd want
at least 7/4 about that. I think she could get placed
but I doubt she can beat UTOPIE DES BORDES.




D o n c a s t e r 1.50

2/1 Aaim To Prosper, 5/2 Zuider Zee, 7/2 Life And Soul
11/2 Minella Forfitness, 8/1 Theatre Evening, 20/1 Alpancho
20/1 Neltara, 25/1 Custer Of The West, 25/1 Feast Of Fire
33/1 Pryde Rock, 33/1 Sorcier, 50/1 Chemistry Master
50/1 River Exit, 66/1 Brief Mark, 66/1 Fromthetop
66/1 Rockchasebullett, 66/1 Yippee Kiyay
150/1 Big Sound, 150/1 Consigliori, 150/1 Greatown
150/1 Jawbreaker, 150/1 Teeiygee.

* This is a fascinating maiden hurdle
* The race has some seriously good prospects
* I wasnt prepared to shortlist THEATRE EVENING
* NELTARA also fell short with 1 run this season
* There are 4 serious runners here
* AAIM TO PROSPER - I have to make him a negative
* I think he is the wrong favourite as a 9 year old
* Yes he was very smart on the flat so needs respect
* 9 year olds have awful records when having under 2 runs
* None won any maiden hurdle at this time of year
* Years ago one won a novice hurdle (Hillview Lizzie)
* That horse was a mare and it was a small field
* The absence wont help and I have to oppose him
* From 4 possible winners I rank him only 4th best
* Thats where we get into difficulties
* The others are hard to read as evidence is thin
* LIFE AND SOUL - I can resist him and he is 3rd best
* He comes up in trip with just one race
* MINELLA FORFITNESS - Only one issue
* I'd have loved his profile with a recent run
* He has 73 days off and that just damages his profile
* ZUIDER ZEE - Unraced over hurdles but Classy on flat
* Statistically despite no hurdle runs he's like more winners
* ZUIDER ZEE - MINELLA FORFITNESS come out best
* The Henderson factor swings it to MINELLA FORFITNESS

Selection

MINELLA FORFITNESS 5/1 Win Bet
ZUIDER ZEE 7/2 Saver Bet



D o n c a s t e r 2.25

6/4 Vintage Star, 9/4 Ruben Cotter, 5/1 Netminder
11/2 Alpha Victor, 16/1 Humphrey Bee, 20/1 Ballymurry.

This is a 3m 2f Novice Chase with two different types
of horse. VINTAGE STAR comes here as a winner of
a Novice Chase. RUBEN COTTER comes here after
an absence and has just handicap hurdle form. Not a
lot in the profiles. VINTAGE STAR is getting exposed
for a 7yo that has no graded form and his profile was
only acceptable. RUBEN COTTER's profile is harder
to do. It is almost brilliant and would have been with
a couple more runs. If you want to get pedantic then
I would argue VINTAGE STAR is marginally safer but
with RUBEN COTTER you have a better stable and
a less exposed type. I'm drawn to RUBEN COTTER
a little bit more but not enough to make a selection.
Two possible angles I did consider. VINTAGE STAR
is 50/1 for the Cheltenham 4m National Hunt Chase
and being a Trevor Hemmings horse may well race
there and if he was looking like winning easily may
be worth a fiver for that race. He wont go there with
a very strong profile though. The other thought was
that NETMINDER had a competent profile as well
and probably shouldnt be as big as 5/1. There is a
case for betting NETMINDER at 5/1 and laying him
back in running around 2/1 given he could front run.
That would be a boredom bet. No selection here.



W o l v e r h a m p t o n 2.45

9/4 Easydoesit, 7/2 Scribe, 6/1 Richo
10/1 Table Forty Six, 12/1 Perfect Shot
12/1 Shaker Style, 14/1 Party Palace
14/1 Royal Defence, 20/1 Watch The Birdie
33/1 Artful Dodger, 66/1 Bet Noir
100/1 Royal Gig.

* This is an Apprentice riders race over 14f
* Hardly any similar races are run so no clear stats
* EASYDOESIT has just won 0-50 and 0-52 handicaps
* This is slightly harder but he's on a hat trick
* Against him are a couple of minor issues
* One is the big weight another no recent run
* It may be that Stamina is his biggest problem
* He raced over 13f once and was well beaten
* His sire had had a 13f winner but none over this far
* EASYDOESIT has to prove he can stay this far

* WATCH THE BIRDIE was beaten too far last time
* PERFECT SHOT didnt do enough last time either
* BET NOIR didnt do enough last time either
* TABLE FORTY SIX is a mare absent 127 days
* Exposed and aged 7 its asking too much
* ROYAL GIG - absent far too long as a filly
* ROYAL DEFENCE's current form looks shaky
* RICHO is unsafe and doesnt offer enough
* ARTFUL DODGER is too inexperienced

Shortlist

* EASYDOESIT - He has to prove he stays
* PARTY PALACE - certainly worth shortlisting
* She isnt safe though as a 9yo mare
* I do like her recent run and drop in trip though
* Her price compensates for these risks
* SHAKER STYLE - There are positives in his profile
* Not overkeen he comes from 9f to a 14f race
* SCRIBE - Must be one of the safer choices

Selection

PARTY PALACE 12/1

£5 Each Way



D o n c a s t e r 3.00

4/5 Darlan, 7/4 Rock On Ruby
5/1 Countrywide Flame, 50/1 Clerk´s Choice.

This is a Listed Hurdle and a Champion Hurdle trial
in which DARLAN and ROCK ON RUBY have their
prep races for that race. COUNTRYWIDE FLAME
is also involved and could nick it if the others dont
preform but as a 5yo and held on his last race I'd
prefer the bit 2 runners. DARLAN is much shorter
in the Champion Hurdle betting. Both horses have
had just one run this season. Statistically I'm with
DARLAN as the safer choice. He is younger with
a more recent race. He is less exposed as well.
He has a better record in small fields. DARLAN's
only two defeats came in big fields and he hasn't
lost when running in fields of 13 or less. You can
argue ROCK ON RUBY is the Champion Hurdler
and rated higher and should not be as big as 2/1
but given both have just one run this year I have
to prefer DARLAN's less exposed younger profile.


Selection - DARLAN 4/5




W o l v e r h a m p t o n 3.20

9/2 No Mean Trick, 5/1 Russian Bullet
6/1 Methaaly, 6/1 Steel City Boy, 7/1 Jolly Ranch
8/1 Yungaburra, 10/1 Imjin River, 12/1 Bailadeira
12/1 Whiskey Junction, 16/1 Fantasy Fighter
20/1 Ches Jicaro.

* This is a 5f handicap for 0-60 rated horses
* The Draw doesnt show a lot at the minute
* Recent results show the higher stalls are poor
* If I liked a horse the draw wouldnt put me off
* JOLLY RANCH - Not keen on 87 days absence
* Not when he is 7 and has 1 run since last June
* BAILADEIRA - Not keen as a mare absent 52 days
* CHES JICARO is too inexperienced
* STEEL CITY BOY won over 6f last time
* There were 5 winners doing that
* None of these were aged 8 or more
* STEEL CITY BOY is 10 and this trip is sharp enough
* WHISKEY JUNCTION is 9 and drops from 6f
* Statistically he was beaten too far last time
* That said he did do too much from a bad draw
* There were excuses but he isnt like any winners
* You would wonder if he wanted 6f
* IMJIN RIVER - Exposed 5yo down in trip
* Almost all similar winners ran within 2 weeks
* IMJIN RIVER doesnt which just makes him unsafe
* METHAALY was beaten over 6f last time
* I looked at 10 year olds doing that
* I found 1 similar winner with a bit less weight
* METHAALY isnt completely out of this
* He doesnt offer me enough though
* FANTASY FIGHTER is 8 and down in trip
* I found one winner aged 8 like him
* I wouldnt rule him out but all his wins are at 6f
* He is 0-9 over 5f never finishing 1st or 2nd
* NO MEAN TRICK is an exposed 7yo
* Never ran beyond a Class 5 race in 23 starts
* That just takes the shine off his profile

Shortlist

* RUSSIAN BULLET - Positive profile
* I would have liked more backclass though
* YUNGABURRA is 9 beaten over 6f last time
* He did enough last time to shortlist him
* YUNGABURRA - I like his chances here

Selection

YUNGABURRA 9/1 Each Way Bet

RUSSIAN BULLET 5/1 Saver




D o n c a s t e r 3.30

* This 3m handicap hurdle is too hard
* I very much doubt I can sort this
* Maybe a boredom bet is the best plan
* I have chosen 4 horses with profiles I dont like
* You could lay all 4 in a combination bet
* CHOSEN DREAM - plenty to prove
* GIVEITACHANCE - absence hurts from Novice Hcap
* MR ROBINSON - Unsafe up so far in trip
* EVERYLASTING - Unsafe up so far in trip
* I will predict these 4 horse will lose
* Not a confident bet though



W o l v e r h a m p t o n 3.50

11/4 Saharia, 7/2 Classic Colori, 9/2 Zing Wing
11/2 Azrael, 13/2 Hillbilly Boy, 11/1 Khajaaly
12/1 Vitznau, 50/1 The Kernigal 66/1 Amber Moon.

* This is a selling race over 7f
* My negatives are below
* AMBER MOON - THE KERNIGAL cant win at weights
* HILLBILLY BOY - You dont want a 3yo
* ZING WING - Mare with just 1 run in 109 days
* Shes up in trip - there must be fitter safer options
* KHAJAALY is also too short of runs
* SAHARIA - Not a negative but unimpressive
* I wanted a more recent run or more backclass

Shortlist

* VITZNAU - Hard to read but respected
* Had a bad draw and bad profile last time
* With two good excuses he could bounce back

* CLASSIC COLORI certainly has the class
* His absence is a bit longer than ideal
* There is also a doubt about whether 7f suits
* His last run makes him a saver

* AZRAEL- No holes in his profile
* Exposed horses aged 5
* Coming from a 7f claimer
* Running within 2 weeks
* Beaten under 10 lengths last time
* Similar horses had a W W W record

Selection

AZRAEL 7/2 Win Bet
CLASSIC COLORI 5/1 Saver




W o l v e r h a m p t o n 4.25

7/4 Frontier Fighter, 2/1 Haftohaf, 6/1 Showboating
8/1 Lord Of The Dance, 10/1 Smalljohn
12/1 The Guru Of Gloom, 20/1 Beauty Pageant.

* This is a 0-75 handicap over 7f
* I looked at all similar races January-March
* FRONTIER FIGHTER comes from a maiden with 2 runs
* Looked at horses from maidens within 7 weeks
* There were 14 winners that did that
* Those with 1-2-3-4 career starts were 0-46
* FRONTIER FIGHTER only has 2 career starts
* Statistically- He has to be opposed
* This isnt a big field which will increase his chance
* With that 0-46 record I am against him
* BEAUTY PAGEANT has to go as a mare from 5f
* SHOWBOATING doesnt interest me as a 5yo
* Not with just 1 run in 77 days
* SMALLJOHN - I wanted a better last run

Shortlist

* HAFTOHAF is 4 and drops from 8f
* He only has 5 career starts
* Most winners lightly raced like him had absences
* HAFTOHAF has a recent run though
* I Looked at similar 4 year olds with recent runs
* I found 1 similar winner but he won last time
* HAFTOHAF didnt so I see him as unsafe
* Big chance nevertheless but he is a bit short now

* THE GURU OF GLOOM - Average profile
* I wanted a better last run for a decent profile
* He was entitled to need that race though

* LORD OF THE DANCE is an exposed 7yo
* He won a 7f handicap last time
* Most that won again his age had more backclass
* I did find one winner his age managing to win again
* That horse did have a longer absence though
* LORD OF THE DANCE is a neutral positive


Selection

LORD OF THE DANCE 7/1 Win Bet
THE GURU OF GLOOM 14/1 Win Bet

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