No Bet Today


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No All weather today and two miserable cards
that are not far from being laughable. It would
take a magician to pull a strong bet out of the
hat today. I'm doing just one preview. Its really
a pathetic days racing. One race the only plan
is to get a winner and set us up for a big week.


This Week's Plans

The highlight has to be Friday-Saturday-Sunday
when we have a fascinating 3 day Cheltenham
Paddy Power Gold Cup meeting to look forward
to. Planning to review lots of Cheltenham races.

There will be a message board competition run
over these three days with some prize money to
win. Before Friday there will be a few standard
messages but I will have some time off as well.

I will take at least one day off and might reduce
the workload on another day. I want some time
to get certain races right with the Paddy Power
and Greatwood Hurdle priorities. I am also likely
to do target a 3m Amateur Riders handicap that
opens the meeting on Friday unless that's spoilt
by Standing Ovation running and starting short.





M e s s a g e H i g h l i g h t s


Only the one preview. The 2.30pm at Ffos Las


I have decided that in the "Draw No Bet" market
on Betfair I should bet ARSENAL at 2.42 to beat
Manchester United today. The draw would mean
full stakes are refunded. I just fancy that bet on
a day where the Racing offers just mediocrity.


F f o s L a s 2.30

Split Stake Bet

ABNAKI 4/1 - Half your stake to win

FIREBIRD FLYER 3/1 - Half your stake to win

The positives here is we have 6 runners and 4 of
them are negatives. My angles say only two have
a good enough profile and betting both will give
us at least an even money winner if either wins.

The downside is simply the small field and when
you get that it's much harder for negatives to get
beaten. It gives them a far better chance to win.

The small tactical field puts me off having a bet
on the account. Another reflective Sunday with
a mention. I think it is worth a bet to small stakes.



S a t u r d a y R e f l e c t i o n s

There were two bets yesterday and one of them won
and I think we won the day and that was so important
as we had lost the last three Saturdays after two good
ones in a row. Whilst this one went our way there will
always be damage in a Saturday message. These are
never clean knockouts and there are casualties. Didn't
start well with MAJORITIES coming 4th. That was very
disappointing when you consider we got the odds on
favourite beaten and the main danger unplaced. The
stable are so difficult to read I should not have risked
a bet on one of their horses. The early message didn't
go well either. I might have staked the novice hurdles
better and may have saved two selections had I known
the prices available. The message finally had a winner
with Highland Retreat at 8s but unfortunately I made a
mistake putting the preview later in the message than
it should have been and some people might not have
realised it and missed it. My apologies for that. It was
a mistake and a bad one. Pressure based mistake that
was brought on by having to send the message earlier
since the clocks gone back. One of the main positives
for me was Jack Dexter winning from Highland Colori
with Spinatrix third. Whilst we only broke level in this
race I loved that result. I did some Racing Post ratings
analysis that I have used a few times recently looking
at 6f soft ground numbers and the analysis worked so
well as the 3 horses finishing 1st 2nd and 3rd all filled
those positions and it was spot on. I have used that as
a method a few times. The previous time we only had
a 2nd (Not Till Monday) but this was the method I used
for both the 14/1 winner Mass Rally and when Maarek
won the Prix De L'abbaye at 8/1. In the right races it's
a powerful weapon that puts races in perspective and
we only have to look at Jack Dexters result to see this.
Then came STANDING OVATION and he was brilliant.
The message needed a big result and he delivered it.
He never looked likely to lose. Profit on that day. Two
of the last 3 bets have won now and since I made the
change to just a one tier staking system we are nicely
ahead. Battered and bruised a bit after yesterday but
a winning day which is more enjoyable on a Saturday.



P R O F I L E S & P R EV I E W S



F f o s L a s 2.30

11/4 Firebird Flyer, 3/1 Pension Plan
100/30 Victors Serenade, 9/2 Abnaki
8/1 Still Believing, 12/1 Nicky Nutjob.


* This is a 3m Handicap Hurdle for 0-130 rated horses

* I dont like older horses with absences and high weights
* I looked at 3m Handicap Hurdles in November
* There are 101 of these races in Class 2-3-4

* Horses aged 8 or more won 26 of these races
* Those that were absent 2 + Months were 8-159
* Most of the 8 winners were lightweights
* I looked at those with 10st 13lbs or more
* There was a miserable 1-83 record with these horses
* The only winner was master overseer back in 2011

* VICTORS SERENADE is 8 and fails this 1-83 statistic
* With Topweight absent 393 days he is not safe statistically
* Nothing can be ruled out in a small field but not for me
* He is being laid out for the Welsh National over fences
* This is the first of two planned prep races
* That suggests he could be short of peak fitness today

* PENSION PLAN fails this statistic and is a 9yo
* Horses aged 9 absent 2 + months with 10st 13lbs + are 0-46
* He comes out badly with his age weight and absence

* STILL BELIEVING is a seasonal debutant
* She comes from a Non Handicap
* I looked at horses from Novice-Maiden Hurdles last year
* There was a miserable 3-92 record with these horses
* None of these had under 3 hurdle runs like her
* None of these were mares like her either
* STILL BELIEVING doesn't come out well

* NICKY NUTJOB has been running all summer
* He has a career high mark today
* He has never won beyond a Class 4 race before
* His best handicap run came in a 0-107
* This 0-130 may prove too warm for him
* His stamina over 3m in this ground is unproven
* His sire's bred just 1 winner over 3m in a Hunter Chase
* That was on Good to Soft and he has stamina/class issues

Shortlist

* FIREBIRD FLYER is a 6yo seasonal debutant
* He comes from a Handicap Chase
* 3 horses had this profile in 101 similar races
* They finished 5th Won PU the winner Halcon Genelardais
* He's won a 3m Handicap Hurdle here on Heavy ground
* FIREBIRD FLYER has to be a positive

* ABNAKI has just won a 3m 3f Handicap Hurdle
* I looked at all horses from recent handicap hurdles
* Horses coming from Handicap Hurdles over 3m 2f or more
* Running within the past month
* 10 horses had this profile in 101 similar races
* They finished 6 8 3 6 3 2 6 6 8 4
* None of the 10 won so his profile is unsafe
* It is a small sample size though
* He would go close if repeating his last run
* Much depends on whether 2nd time blinkers work
* I think he has to be in the shortlist and staking plan

Selection

You could play this different ways

FIREBIRD FLYER could be a win bet ABNAKI a saver
ABNAKI could also be the main bet and save on FIREBIRD FLYER

FIREBIRD FLYER is generally 3/1
ABNAKI is generally 4/1

Betting both with produce at least an Even Money
winner if either of these win. That seems reasonable.

ABNAKI 4/1 Win bet to half stakes
FIREBIRD FLYER 3/1 Win bet to half stakes

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