No Full Bet today

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4 Top of the message bets


Lingfield 2.30
ON THE FEATHER 9/2
Each Way

Lingfield 3.30
HARLESTONE WOOD 3/1
Each Way ( All 8 must run or no bet)

Lingfield 4.00
HONEY OF A KITTEN 7/2
Win Bet

Kempton 7.30
LITMUS 7/2 Win Bet
BYRD IN HAND 7/1 Saver




I n s i d e T o d a y 's M e s s a g e

There are 3 All Weather cards today and for that
reason and an inspection Musselburgh does not
get a look in today. The race I may have done is
the 2.10 where Cayman Islands looks best but I
would prefer to bet him in the each way double.

Southwell is a miserable card deserving only the
lighest of coverage with only two races. Lingfield
provides the backbone of this message with six
previews. Kempton tonight has 3 races I wanted
to do. I feel this is a reasonable overall message.


Today's 4 Bets

Lingfield 2.30 - ON THE FEATHER 9/2 Each Way

Lingfield 3.30 - HARLESTONE WOOD 3/1 Each Way

Lingfield 4.00 - HONEY OF A KITTEN 7/2 Win Bet

Kempton 7.30 - LITMUS 7/2 Win
Kempton 7.30 - BYRD IN HAND 7/1 Saver


* Prices on todays bets are given later in message

Four bets is a bit more than I am comfortable with
but we only need one winner to get all stakes back
and I do like these bets today. My criteria with the
strongest bets I have is that I want to be confident
and have a decent price as well. These four horses
are just a bit shorter than Ideal so none are full bets.

I love the case for ON THE FEATHER each way in
the 2.30pm much as I am trying to limit each way
bets around this sort of price. Respect the favourite
but feel I can beat him. There is a dirty gamble on
the third favourite but if he wins so be it. I went for
this horse last time and he looks solid to me here.

Obviously HARLESTONE WOOD looks a burglary
bet each way with 8 runners. Some may not like
taking the 3/1 each way and I do understand that.
His price is in the ballpark area of my other bets
yet he faces far less opposition so I am including
him amongst the four bets as he should go close.

I detest the frame of HONEY OF A KITTEN's race
and maybe I should have downgraded the bet but
he has been brilliant placed here and drops down
in class. I'm dissapointed he wasnt a bigger price
but his chance is there to see and I will risk him.

The final race at Kempton is hard to be confident
about. I wanted a saver on BYRD IN HAND with
my main bet on LITMUS. I backed him two runs
ago when he won and he had excuses last time.
Much of his opposition have holes in their profile
and I think we should trust LITMUS to win again.



S u n d a y 's R e v i e w

I havent done a message for two days working
on Cheltenham and that just leaves a Sunday
message to review. Thankfully it was a no bet
message as it really didnt deliver and we came
out behind and well beaten in a poor message.


Prices on Todays Bets

* ON THE FEATHER
* 9/2 Corals Bet365 Bluesq Bet365 Skybet Stan J Spbet
* 4/1 Generally elsewhere
* HARLESTONE WOOD
* 3/1 Generally except for the following
* 11/4 Hills Corals Ladbrokes Boyles
* HONEY OF A KITTEN
* 7/2 Chandler 100/30 Boyles
* 3/1 Generally elsewhere
* LITMUS
* 7/2 Tote Betfred VC Blue Sq PPower Stan J Corals
* 100/30 Skybet Bet365
* 3/1 Elsewhere

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P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S


L i n g f i e l d 1.30

4/1 Gunner Will, 4/1 Syrian, 9/2 Divine Rule
5/1 Electrician, 6/1 Maz, 6/1 Royal Etiquette
7/1 Temuco, 66/1 Darwinian.

* This is a 10f selling race
* Open issues in this race
* ELECTRICIAN strikes me as a weak link
* 4 year olds are poor and none came up from 8f
* GUNNER WILL - I'd rather have an older horse
* MAZ - I wouldnt rule her out
* I prefer others as she's a mare with an absence
* TEMUCO wouldnt be my first choice
* Not well beaten recently as a 4yo
* ROYAL ETIQUETTE - Hard to read
* He has the ability but dont know what to expect
* Comes from a Jumpers Bumper
* Not shortlisting him but wont be shocked if he wins

Shortlist

* DIVINE RULE - Profile fine but not much backclass
* I think he needs this step up in distance
* They his best form is at 8f and it may be
* Only because he wasnt suited to the 10f races he ran in
* This was a horse who started over 8f as a juvenile
* His breeding stats tell me he wasnts 10f
* I think they have been running him over the wrong trip
* Against him is he does fall short on class
* Others have achieved more than he has
* I am clinging onto the belief he is a 10f-12f horse
* I hope to see him running on late for a place
* DIVINE RULE does interest me today
* I'd like to be proved right about the trip
* I've place saved him but he could win this

* SYRIAN is rated 15bs higher than DIVINE RULE
* SYRIAN wasnt fit last time when beaten at odds on
* He had raced just once in 10 months that day
* The issue here is - he has now had 2 recent runs
* Is that enough to rubber stamp his ratings edge ?

Selection

SYRIAN 4/1 Win Bet
DIVINE RULE 7/4 Place Bet




L i n g f i e l d 2.00

3/1 Close Together, 4/1 Poetic Verse
4/1 Sand Grouse, 5/1 Entrapping, 6/1 Gabrial The Duke
6/1 Rosie Future, 16/1 Silver Fawn.

* POETIC VERSE - I had her as a neutral profile
* Some fillies won up in trip but none won last time
* Not enough tried to call her a negative
* CLOSE TOGETHER is a filly from a handicap
* Every filly with that profile had 5 + runs
* CLOSE TOGETHER has 4 runs just one run short
* She may go and win and It wont surprise me
* I just dont want to rush into betting a lightly raced filly
* Not at a short price when all similar fillies had more runs
* ROSIE FUTURE - Winners from 12f are rare
* None were fillies and no recent run doesnt help
* GABRIAL THE DUKE doesnt come out well enough
* I will Shortlist these two horses
* ENTRAPPING - Shortlistable and the trip could suit
* SAND GROUSE - Hard to read but hortlistable

Selection

ENTRAPPING 5/1 Win Bet
SAND GROUSE 5/1 Saver Bet




S o u t h w e l l 2.20

I think it's best to leave this race. I think the favourite
MISTER BOB will probably win. I ran his profile as a
4 year old from a 12f maiden and a recent run and it
was weak. I found those with under 3 runs had a bad
0-29 record. Lightly raced 4 year olds did win when
having long absences but none that ran recenty. He
is not statistically strong. Equally his sire hasnt had
a winner over this far before. Personally that wouldnt
bother me much. It is still very hard to fancy any of
his opponents. I think I should overrule my angles
as there is nothing in the race. MISTER BOB looks
the one but I am not betting him at odds on and not
opposing him either. His rivals look so bad that he's
the only option I could consider despite bad stats.



L i n g f i e l d 2.30

5/2 Broughtons Bandit, 3/1 Cecily Parsley
9/2 On The Feather, 6/1 Polarity, 14/1 If What And Maybe
14/1 Rollin ´n Tumblin, 20/1 Boston Blue
20/1 Sing Alana Sing 25/1 Burnbrake, 25/1 Nadia Naes.

* This is a 2m handicap for 0-60 rated horses
* The draw is quite interesting here
* Since 2008 there have been 64 races here over 2m
* Thats a 5 year period so the draw could be important
* Horses drawn 11 or more were just 1-73
* High drawn horses are caught wide round too many bends
* ROLLIN ´N TUMBLIN is drawn 12
* He's an old foe and has problems and a weak profile
* CECILY PARSLEY is not drawn well in stall 11
* She is a mare absent 264 days
* No mares have won absent as long as that
* I have fitness problems with IF WHAT AND MAYBE
* BOSTON BLUE isnt running well enough
* He may pop up but nothing to suggest he will
* BURNBRAKE isnt running well enough
* NADIA NAES - Awful profile from maiden - doubt he stays
* SING ALANA SING - Awful profile filly from a 12f seller
* POLARITY is a 7yo mare from 12f
* Not a negtaive but she doesnt look very safe
* She has to prove she can stay 2 miles
* Her sires longest bred winner was 1m 6f 132 yards
* She is from a weak stable though
* They have never trained a flat winner in 5 years (0-41)
* Only a handful of jumpers have won as well
* BROUGHTONS BANDIT - I have issues with him
* He is 6 and has just 1 run since last May
* He has no backclass either and comes from 12f
* I would have liked a safer profile
* There is an obvious chase he is well treated

Selection

* ON THE FEATHER is a 7yo mare
* She ran well last time in a 2m handicap
* She had far from an easy time in running
* She looks a massive runner to me

£5 Each Way ON THE FEATHER 4/1




L i n g f i e l d 3.00

6/4 Jimmy The Snooze, 4/1 Fearless Lad, 4/1 Sharaar
5/1 Douglas Pasha, 10/1 Botteen, 14/1 Lively Little Lady.

This is a 7f maiden race. Not much you can say and
the obvious one is JIMMY THE SNOOZE having had
a couple of runs behind him. He doesnt set that high
a standard though and SHARAAR wont need to be a
good horse to beat him. Gerard Butler has had some
unraced maiden winners in similar races and this race
has often gone to an unraced horse so I dont want to
overestimate the favourite who was after all beaten by
a 56 rated horse last time out who had already had 8
chances to win a maiden before. It's probably a race
to watch. SHARAAR and FEARLESS LAD must be
some sort of threat against the favourite and it would
stop me betting him at odds on. I'd prefer the other 2.



S o u t h w e l l 3.20

11/10 La Sylphe, 13/8 Hiddon Coin
9/2 Girl At The Sands

* This is a 3yo claimer over 6f
* It looks a two horse race to me
* The race did catch me by surprise a bit
* LA SYLPHE is a filly with 1 run in 117 days
* She has as many as 9 runs having that to overcome
* She also steps up in distance
* I was expecting a disastrous profile
* It was actually much better than I expected
* It was still weak though and I couldnt match her
* HIDDON COIN I expected to have a strong profile
* It was actually a lot weaker than I'd predicted
* I was expecting him to be a comfortable choice
* I am not as sure now and its closer than I liked
* LA SYLPHE has also won here
* HIDDON COIN hasnt even raced here yet
* That makes it an uncomfortable decision
* HIDDON COIN still just shades it for me
* His fitness - better stable - better jockey seal it
* HIDDON COIN is my selection
* I think the betting is just about right though


L i n g f i e l d 3.30

* My pick is HARLESTONE WOOD each way
* Thats based more on the frame of the race
* I dont see him as any more likely to win than some
* Some are hard to read and an unconventional distance
* He just looked the sensible bet in the race

Selection - HARLESTONE WOOD 3/1 Each Way



L i n g f i e l d 4.00

3/1 Ellie In The Pink, 3/1 Zaheeb, 4/1 Mafi
4/1 Manomine, 6/1 Honey Of A Kitten
10/1 Crowning Star.

* This is a Mile Handicap for 0-66 rated horses
* Dissapointing frame to the race
* ZAHEEB is the only horse up in distance
* He is exposed and hasn't ran in a month
* With limited backclass I dont like his profile
* MANOMINE wouldnt be my first choice
* ELLIE IN THE PINK doesn't interest me
* Not as an exposed mare absent 6 weeks

Shortlist

* CROWNING STAR - profile is fine
* Just whether he's ready to win at the moment
* He's had 3 runs since an absence but well beaten
* Bad draw last time and hampered gives him excuses
* MAFI - Good solid profile
* Safe choice and should go well
* HONEY OF A KITTEN - has to be shortlisted
* Especially with a recent run and drop in class
* The issue is did he do enough last time
* Bear in mind his lowest rated opponent was rated 70
* Today his highest rated opponent is rated just 66
* HONEY OF A KITTEN looks well placed here

Selection

£10 Win HONEY OF A KITTEN 9/2




K e m p t o n 5.00

4/1 Lytham, 9/2 Angelena Ballerina, 9/2 Brave Decision
7/1 Bubbly Braveheart, 8/1 May Boy, 10/1 Mayan Flight
10/1 Querido, 14/1 Firefly, 14/1 Heading To First
14/1 Nurse Dominatrix, Time Square, 20/1 Smirfy´s Silver.

This is a 10f Apprentice Handicap. The Draw is unclear
but I would favour horses drawn 4-12 and try and avoid
the very wide draws. I am opposing LYTHAM as a 12yo
who won last time but who has just one run in 46 days
and Stall 13 which is not the best draw. Open minded
about BUBBLY BRAVEHEART. My instinct is he will
be fitter with another run and profiling him the hint was
that he hadn't achieved enough last time. I have fitness
issues with MAYAN FLIGHT and FIREFLY. There are a
few with claims. ANGELENA BALLERINA, QUERIDO
and MAY BOY must have some sort of squeak but the
safest bet to me looks like BRAVE DECISION who has
a good chance of reversing last time out form with the
favourite Lytham especialy from a better draw today.

Selection - BRAVE DECISION 9/2




K e m p t o n 6.00

4/1 Picansort, 5/1 Alnoomaas, 5/1 Bubbly Ballerina
5/1 Charming, 6/1 Novabridge, 7/1 Roy´s Legacy
8/1 Hot Sugar, 12/1 Quality Art, 16/1 Rambo Will.

* This is a 0-75 handicap over 5f
* BUBBLY BALLERINA is an exposed 4yo filly
* There were exposed 4yo fillies winning
* None had her absence and none came from 5f
* BUBBLY BALLERINA feels unsafe to me
* CHARMING is an exposed 4yo filly winning last time
* I think thats an unsafe profile with few winning again
* NOVABRIDGE isn't well handicapped
* He is 5lbs higher than his beat previous win
* I wanted more backclass for an exposed 5yo
* QUALITY ART - Chances but wanted a recent run
* HOT SUGAR wouldnt be my first choice
* PICANSORT - His profile is just about fine
* I would like a little less weight to match him
* Especially as he has a career high mark
* ALNOOMAAS - One of the best overall profiles
* I ran his profile and returned a 3-5 record
* Two problems though with that profile
* He has a 7lbs claimer and has never run at 5f before
* ROY´S LEGACY - Good solid overall profile
* ROY´S LEGACY and ALNOOMAAS came out best

Selection

£4 Each Way ROY´S LEGACY 7/1
£2 Saver ALNOOMAAS 11/2



K e m p t o n 7.30

7/2 Litmus, 4/1 Ermyntrude, 9/2 Reasons Unknown
6/1 Commercial, 8/1 Byrd In Hand, 8/1 Gallantry
12/1 Rigid, 16/1 High Five Prince, 25/1 Murfreesboro
33/1 Anrheg, 33/1 Doctor Hilary.

* This is a Mile Handicap for 0-55 rated horses
* I have fitness issues with these two
* ANRHEG - HIGH FIVE PRINCE
* MURFREESBORO is also short of form/fitness
* DOCTOR HILARY isnt running well enough
* GALLANTRY - Not first choice aged 11
* RIGID - I wanted better recent runs

The horse I liked was LITMUS. If you remember
two runs ago I tipped her as I felt she was about
to win. She duly hacked up over this course and
distance. That was a slightly weaker race than
this but she won easily. LITMUS was then beaten
last time out. There is a definate case that it was
a case of not being suited by the way the Lingfield
race was run and he was never in a good position.
I think LITMUS can bounce back here because it
is does seem that she faces some flawed rivals.

* ERMYNTRUDE is a mare who won last time
* She has had just 1 run in 104 days though
* Thats a worry for an exposed 6 year old
* REASONS UNKNOWN comes from 12f
* Thats a 4f drop in trip and that wont be easy
* That damages his profile and he isnt strong
* COMMERCIAL won last time out
* That was his first run since June 2011
* That makes his task a lot harder
* There are reasons why these 3 may not win
* That pushes me towards LITMUS as the bet
* BYRD IN HAND is my danger


Selection

£8 Win LITMUS 7/2
£2 Saver BYRD IN HAND 7/1

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