No Full Bet today

1 Top of the Message Bet

5 Previews



Todays Bet

Fontwell 1.50

MISTRAL REINE 3/1 - 7/2

Each Way


4/1 Sportingbet
7/2 Ladbrokes VC Betfred Hills Bet365
100/30 Skybet 888sport



I n s i d e T o d a y 's M e s s a g e

Scrappy day today and a shorter message. The
Newbury card has a lot of maiden races hardly
worth bothering with. I'm backing off the card
at Ayr with small fields on heavy ground which
looks risky. I don't have much National Hunt at
all today and what I do have is seperated in a
short opening paragraph before the flat work.


Only five Previews today in a shorter message
which is needed after 2 over bloated midweek
efforts. I've decided to do messages Saturday
Sunday and Monday with a break on Tuesday.




Todays Options

5 previews today and I could have any from 0-5
winners from these. I do not know whether it is
advantageous of more of a curse that the horse
with the best profile MISTRAL REINE runs in the
race with the best frame but that is how it has
ended up and this bet has to be a good option.


Fontwell 1.50

MISTRAL REINE 7/2

Each Way


I think given the frame of the race she has the
look of a decent each way bet. Only a tiny bit
of 4/1 is available with Ladbrokes VC Betfred
all 7/2 and Skybet 100/30. Then its 3/1 general.


Her profile has taken me by surprise a bit and
it came down to a simple choice. Do I want to
go with her as a bet knowing 3/1 Each Way is
a bit short when normally I'd prefer a bet with
more negatives from her main rivals. Decided
in the end to have a bet in the full knowledge
that there are some unsatisfactory elements
and knowing I hate advising this sytle of bet.




T h u r s d a y 's R e v i e w

Again it was not quite what I wanted yesterday.
I didn't go with a bet but my 3 options returned
just one dead heated winner. SANDY LANE did
win in a dead heat. We might have been lucky
to share that verdict but I will take that. I think
it was a bit ambitious to expect too much from
the Cheltenham bets. To be honest the rain did
the damage. I underestimated the ground there
and it badly hurt BABY SHINE who still ran quite
well in 5th place. BENBANE HEAD didnt handle
it well enough either and saving on the second
wasn't good enough. Small loss from the three
options. A little bit more tinkering looks needed.

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P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S


N a t i o n a l H u n t


F o n t w e l l 1.50

Evs Definite Ruby, 3/1 Jean Fleming, 5/1 Mistral Reine
10/1 Mon Reve, 12/1 Cariflora, 16/1 Around The World
20/1 Exclusive Rights, 25/1 Hubood, 33/1 K Island
33/1 Well Sprung, 66/1 Imperial Elegance
66/1 Supersticion, 100/1 Redinga.

This is a Mares Novice Hurdle and there looks to be 3
horses with strong chances and a lot of dead wood as
well. There is a warm favourite in DEFINITE RUBY who
comes from a top class yard. Her profile is acceptable
but nothing special and she does have limitations and
whilst I see her as a positive there is a better profile at
a much better price. JEAN FLEMING must have a good
chance but she was beaten at long odds on last time
and is on the inexperienced side. Both these sadly do
not come out as negatives but neither offered as good
a profile as my selection. Neither EXCLUSIVE RIGHTS
or CARIFLORA offer me enough coming via Bumpers.
AROUND THE WORLD is out from a Maiden Bumper as
well. There is a big case for MISTRAL REINE each way.

* Horses aged 4
* Running within 7 weeks
* Between 3-4-5 runs this season
* Starting under 33/1
* Not beaten more than 20 lengths last time
* Horses with this profile were W W 3 W W 5 W W
* Those coming from a Maiden Hurdle were W W W
* MISTRAL REINE Has this profile

Selection

MISTRAL REINE 7/2

Each Way





N e w b u r y 2.30

9/4 Mocenigo, 5/2 Cap O´rushes
100/30 Contributer, 6/1 Incorporate
7/1 Cruck Realta.

This is a 10f Conditions race for 3 year olds who've
never won a Pattern race before. Messy race really.

* INCORPORATE - Think there are classier horses
* CRUCK REALTA - Filly from 6f is unnaceptable
* CAP O´RUSHES - Ran at this trip as a 2yo
* Thats not the norm and his profile isnt that safe
* MOCENIGO - Has to be a positive
* CONTRIBUTER has the strongest profile
* Several winners won 8f maidens with 2 runs
* There are far more winners like him that win

Selection

CONTRIBUTER




N e w b u r y 3.05

7/4 Ribaat, 5/1 Hasopop, 7/1 Baltic Knight
8/1 So Beloved, 10/1 Hay Dude, 10/1 No Jet Lag
14/1 Here Comes When, 14/1 Mutazamen
14/1 Tipping Over, 20/1 Kalicamix.

I rarely do this 3yo handicap as its been upgraded
to Class 2 recently and there are hardly any similar
races to draw stats from. I suspect you want a first
time out horse that's lightly raced. Neither Hasopop
Kalimax or Hay Dude managed to win when 3 year
olds which shouldnt be good enough to win a race
like this. TIPPING OVER is a little too exposed for
a debutant. NO JET LAG is also bordering on being
overraced and with topweight didnt offer enough.
I will ignore HERE COMES WHEN as I dont feel he
will be helped by Stall One. Roger Charlton might
not have SO BELOVED fit enough first time out as
a 3yo. MUTAZAMEN is the Richard Hannon second
string. He must have been rejected by both stable
jockey Richard Hughes and Paul Hanagan as he's
gone for the owners other horse. This leaves two.
BALTIC KNIGHT is shortlistable but but I prefer the
chance of RIBAAT who has a Guineas entry and a
horse that could just be better than handicap class.

Selection

RIBAAT 5/2



N e w b u r y 5.15

3/1 Heeraat, 4/1 Mirza, 5/1 Kingsgate Choice
6/1 Definightly, 7/1 Confessional, 8/1 Compton
8/1 El Viento, 14/1 Taajub.

* This is a 5f Handicap for 0-105 rated horses
* DEFINIGHTLY is 7 absent 194 days
* I would oppose a horse his age with that absence
* No winners came from Group 1 races like him
* TAAJUB isnt well handicapped
* He is too unorthadox from a Listed race this year
* CONFESSIONAL has the same problems
* He's badly treated from a Listed race too
* EL VIENTO is exposed and up in class
* With 1 run this year in lower grade I fail him
* KINGSGATE CHOICE looks badly handicapped
* I looked at horses from conditions races this year
* Those with just 1 run this season struggled (0-34)
* KINGSGATE CHOICE doesnt look safe enough
* MIRZA won this race last year first time out
* Harder task this year as a 6yo and a higher mark
* MIRZA isnt a negative though
* COMPTON is a 4yo seasonal debutant
* Thats a good profile as I'm about to explain
* Problem is none came from 7f or further like him
* COMPTON has never raced over 5f before

Shortlist

* HEERAAT is a 4yo debutant
* I like his profile and several winners were similar
* Look at 4yo debutants from 6f all aged handicaps
* Those with 7-20 runs had a W W 10th W record
* The 1997 and 2000 winners of this race had this profile

Selection

HEERAAT 3/1

Win Bet



B a t h 6.00

9/2 Oscars Journey, 9/2 Space Artist
5/1 Lager Time, 5/1 Small Fury, 6/1 Buy Art
6/1 Shrimpton, 7/1 Hot Secret, 20/1 Edged Out
20/1 Khefyn.

* This is a 3yo handicap over 5f
* The Draw could play a part in this race
* I looked at handicaps here last year
* The last 4 winners were drawn 12 12 1 13
* Nothing can be ruled out but I'd prefer middle-high
* BUY ART doesnt offer me enough
* I wasnt convinced about him on the ground
* His lack of backclass
* SMALL FURY is a filly absent 119 days
* From a Nursery I was not convinced
* EDGED OUT - Too much to prove as a filly
* She has downgraded stables over the winter
* SPACE ARTIST - He has an acceptable profile
* Could come down to how soft the ground is
* His sires runners are 0-21 on soft and heavy
* They are 1-34 on slower than good ground
* He will want it drying out also worries me
* KHEFYN didnt do enough last time out
* OSCARS JOURNEY last ran in a Nursery
* I have two problems with this horse
* I cant find a winner than won a 5f Nursery like him
* I also think Stall 1 will hurt him even in a small field
* HOT SECRET is a filly from a Nursery
* With 9 runs she is a bit exposed to be doing that
* SHRIMPTON is also a bit exposed doing the same
* No similar filly has won doing this with her weight
* LAGER TIME is comfortably the fittest profile
* I found 1 winner like him
* There could be something that improves past him
* It should be hard to find 3 to beat him

Selection

LAGER TIME 5/1

Each Way

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