1 Bet Today


Market Rasen 2.05

ACT OF KALANISI 3/1 +

Win Bet



M e s s a g e C o n t e n t

Back to Normal from today having finally sorted
out some computer headaches. Kempton on the
sand is overshadowed by some reasonably good
National Hunt Racing today. I've done a nursery
at Kempton but today's message is National Hunt
dominated. With more time I could have found
so much more. Often frustrating that early starts
mean we have to miss out on such a lot but this
feels like an interesting message in places with
a few races with at least something to offer us.


The bet I really wanted to have was this

Market Rasen 2.05

ACT OF KALANISI Each Way at 4/1


This morning there were 8 runners and he was
a 4/1 chance and I wanted an each way bet on
him. The favourite has pulled out. Now there is
just 7 runners and he is 3/1 causing a dilemma.

I could switch to some safer options like these.

Market Rasen 12.30 - IN THE GATE 4/1 Each Way


Kempton 4.40

CAESARS GIFT 11/2 Win Bet

BAZOOKA 7/2 Saver Bet

It's very annoying I have to make this decision.
I am half tempted to leave them all and maybe
I should especially as there is a race at Thurles
that offers me an even safer bet even if that is
not a race I can have an account bet in. I have
decided to swallow the bitter pill and go with
a win bet on ACT OF KALANISI at 3/1.



M e s s a g e H i g h l i g h t s


Good spread of races today. There are a couple
of previews that have more than just 1 possible
type of selection. You could choose between 2
different types of stake. We all have a different
style and there are times this approach makes
a lot of sense much as it's not any new policy.



MARKET RASEN

I do like a couple of races here and its where
my best bet runs. At least the best bet that I'm
able to advise and that's ACT OF KALANISI 3/1.

Market Rasen 12.30 - IN THE GATE 4/1 Each Way

Market Rasen 2.05 -ACT OF KALANISI 3/1 Win Bet



CHEPSTOW

I've looked at one race and don't like what I have
done much. Nothing here that I would endorse.


KEMPTON

I am short of match practice at Kempton at the
moment. I nearly did the 6.10pm but decided I
didn't have enough time but a brief scan of the
race told me LEGENDARY was the safest horse.
I have done the Nursery and much as these are
trappy races as you can't map improvement we
have 2 reasonably good profiles in the 4.40 race

Kempton 4.40

CAESARS GIFT 11/2 Win Bet
BAZOOKA 7/2 Saver Bet


WINCANTON

Difficult card with certain races out of bounds.
I don't think I can suggest any bets here today.



THURLES

Two Irish races interest me. I am hoping to get
the 12.25 favourite beaten. The Staking here is
a bit messy though. I also like the 1.25pm race.

Thurles 1.25

URANO Win Bet 4/5
GIANTOFAMAN Place Bet 4/5

This looks a very good split stake bet to me and
I would even suggest the forecast at a big price.

URANO to beat GIANTOFAMAN in a Straight forecast (CSF)








S i r e s a n d S y s t e m s


Today's Sire is Where Or When

* Where or When was a flat horse
* He didn't stay 12f and barely stayed 10f
* To date he has bred 21 National Hunt Winners
* Those that ran over 2m 5f or more were 0-22
* 0-22 hardly sets the spine tingling
* However look where the 22 losers finished
* BD PU 10 4 4 9 PU 7 4 PU REF 5 PU 7 6 UR PU 5 PU 4 6 4
* None of these managed to finish 1-2-3
* This includes losers at 5/2 11/2 7/2 9/1 8/1 8/1 3/1 6/1

Market Rasen 2.05

GREYFRIARS DRUMMER 7/1

* This horse by Where or When runs over 3 Miles
* He has to overcome these results with a 473 day break
* I don't advocate laying big prices in small fields
* I would have to oppose him based on the above
* Place layers have 3 places and only 7 runners
* I'd certainly look for an alternative at the least





T u e s d a y' s S u m m a r y

Had lots of hold ups yesterday getting used to
an unpleasantly difficult new computer and it
told on the message. Not very good. I couldn't
get the time to think about any bets. It is quite
difficult around 11.15 am when the first race is
about noon to know just how late I can leave
the message and if there's an important bet in
the first race it can get dangerously close. In
the end we had a winner and saver from the
seven previews. Should have done better but
as I said yesterday it was a bit of a struggle to
get any message out and I didn't get a chance
to relook at anything and sort out a best bet.








P R O F I L E S & P R EV I E W S


T h u r l e s 12.25

11/8 Trifolium, 5/1 Cadspeed, 5/1 Starkie
7/1 Local Celebrity, 8/1 Kates Benefit, 12/1 Cairdin
20/1 Ballysteen, Dariak, 25/1 Holeinthewall Bar
33/1 Banana Flambe, 33/1 Better Hand, 33/1 Dactik
33/1 Noble Pageant, 33/1 Two In A Row
50/1 Get More, 50/1 Speed Dial.

This is a Beginners Chase over 2m 2f and all eyes
will be on 6yo TRIFOLIUM who has Grade 1 Hurdle
form and who placed in the 2012 Supreme Novices.
His profile is interesting from a Grade 1 race. This
would have been a great profile had he had fewer
hurdle runs but after 11 runs it's only average. The
interesting thing for me is that he doesn't have the
size and scope you'd want for a Chaser. He might
not be a Natural at this game which is no surprise
given his Dam was half Arabian. Throw in several
problems he has including his breathing and one
of his legs he may be worth opposing without any
chasing experience. I wasn't sold on CADSPEED a
10 year with 10 Chase starts already. He is joined
by his stablemate LOCAL CELEBRITY who jumped
badly last time when beaten a long way. It might
be best to side with STARKIE. His profile is decent
as a 6yo from handicap hurdles with 4-5-6 starts.
I can find 4 horses with an exact profile and they
finished 2 PU F W. His trainer says he was always
going to be a Chaser and likes softer ground. I'd
rather be with him than a favourite who may not
be a natural chaser or at least hasn't proven that.

Selection

Option 1

Split Your Bet into two Halves

* TRIFOLIUM - Lay him at 5/4 to Half Stales
* STARKIE - Back him at 6/1+ to Half Stakes

Option 2

STARKIE 6/1 Each Way

Two different options. Option 1 allows some
opportunity of saving money if the selection
fails but could also cost money if the favourite
wins and there are pro's and con's with both.





M a r k e t R a s e n 12.30

7/2 Howaboutnow, 7/2 Make Me A Fortune
9/2 Full Throttle, 15/2 In The Gate, 12/1 Danby´s Legend
12/1 Lucky Cody, 12/1 Think Out Loud, Bonnet´s Vino
16/1 Lakefield Rebel, Area Access, 25/1 Cusheen Bridge
25/1 Rene Le Roi, 33/1 Balinderry, 33/1 Banderitos
66/1 Dream Mistress.

This Novice Hurdle isn't really a statistical race
as I can't judge a few. HOWABOUTNOW is one.
Graded bumper debutants are excellent when
coming from last season but he comes here off
two seasons. Only 2 horses had his profile and
neither won but one came second. Unreadable.
I didn't think MAKE ME A FORTUNE set too high
a standard. FULL THROTTLE fell last time and
horses doing that score far too badly to risk. At
this trip they are 0-34 and he is a spoiler that's
capable of spoiling any bet but too risky to be
one. A safer profile is IN THE GATE each way.

Selection

IN THE GATE 4/1

Each Way





C h e p s t o w 12.40

11/4 Vujiyama, 9/2 Going Concern, 9/2 Powderonthebonnet
5/1 Reverb, 8/1 Dream Deal, 12/1 Buywise, 16/1 Peak Storm
20/1 Bajan Blu, 20/1 Midnight Request, 25/1 Duke´s Affair
33/1 Hendry Trigger, 33/1 Veratan, 50/1 Forrardon Xmoor
66/1 Elysian Heights, 100/1 Camptown Lady, Lucas Pitt.

* This is a 2m Novice Hurdle
* Looks a very messy race to me
* There are 473 similar races in November
* I looked at 4 year olds
* Running over 2m 4f last time out
* Beaten more than 15 lengths last time out
* Running within a Month
* I found a 0-34 record with these horses
* VUJIYAMA fails this statistic
* He was beaten 87 lengths just 3 weeks ago
* REVERB also fails this statistic
* My angles suggest we should ignore these
* BUYWISE - No winners came from Hunter Chases
* GOING CONCERN was beaten 46 lengths 11 days ago
* I looked at horses beaten 30 + lengths within 2 weeks
* Those from 2m races had a horrible 2-252 record
* Horses aged 5 or more doing this were 0-81
* GOING CONCERN surely didn't do enough last time

Shortlist

* BAJAN BLU comes from a maiden hurdle
* He was beaten 16 lengths on his only hurdle start
* There was 1 winner with this profile (Show Winner)
* That horse had decent form on the flat behind him
* BAJAN BLU doesn't have that
* He also came from a much stronger stable as well
* BAJAN BLU - Not a negative. E/W chance but risky

* POWDERONTHEBONNET comes from a bumper last year
* I found 1 winner like him. He is shortlistable
* The problem is we don't know if he has ability

* DREAM DEAL is a 5yo with 1 hurdle starts
* He ran 30 days ago beaten about 15 lengths in that
* I ran his profile and found a 0-23 record
* I couldn't rule him out as several placed
* I could have matched him if he ran 23 days ago
* I'd see him as a borderline case
* I think he should be a saver

Selection

POWDERONTHEBONNET 8/1 Win Bet

BAJAN BLU 16/1 Win Bet

DREAM DEAL 3/1 Saver Bet




T h u r l e s 1.25

5/4 Urano, 9/2 Giantofaman, 6/1 Much Wants More
10/1 Justification, 14/1 Bawntameena, 14/1 Coolfighter
14/1 Kozani, 14/1 Refractor, 16/1 Miller Of Glanmire
25/1 Five Hawk Wings, 33/1 Heads Or Tails
33/1 The Other Side, 40/1 Fethard Player, 40/1 Macro
50/1 Curragh Hall, 50/1 It´s Freezing, 66/1 Fiscal Nomad
100/1 Garbally Grey.

* This is a Maiden Hurdle
* URANO stands out on his numbers
* I think he will win this race
* GIANTOFAMAN has a great each way chance on paper
* He looks a rogue though and doesn't want to win
* That may be the key to the race
* Lots of ability and wont be far away
* With lots of ability and little resolution
* He could be ideal for a place bet
* He could be ideal for a forecast as well
* URANO to win and GIANTOFAMAN to come 2nd

Selection

Option 1

URANO Win Bet 4/5
GIANTOFAMAN Place Bet 4/5

Option 2

URANO to beat GIANTOFAMAN forecast

I fancy both of those options and endorse both,






W i n c a n t o n 1.50

7/2 Sound Investment, 4/1 Beachfire, 6/1 Decoy
8/1 Carrigmorna King, 10/1 Balzaccio
10/1 Bathwick Brave, 10/1 Union Saint, 12/1 Jetnova
16/1 Bygones Sovereign, 16/1 Foxcub
16/1 Halifax, 20/1 Look For Love.

This is a 2m 4f Handicap Hurdle. Decided it would
just confuse me. Maybe too hard. Just wanted one
or two quick comments about some of these horses.

* BALZACCIO fails a system I have
* To do with absences and weight
* He wouldn't interest me absent 599 days

* SOUND INVESTMENT is a 5yo
* He comes from a Novice Hurdle last year
* Essentially nothing statistically wrong with that
* However look at similar types that Won last time
* 5yo's winning novice hurdles last time out last year
* There were 23 of them and they finished as follows
* PU 18 10 2 3 3 F 2 8 4 7 9 9 2 3 W 5 16 2 9 7 6 6
* Thats a 1-23 record the only winner Aegean Dawn
* He had just 1 hurdle run. Sound Investment had 4
* SOUND INVESTMENT - I want a better profile than that

* BEACHFIRE also comes from a Novice Hurdle
* He is 6 and ran within a Month
* Horses with this profile were 1-25
* That was a 2m Novice Hurdle though
* The only winner came from a 2m 6f Novice
* BEACHFIRE is unsafe as well
* BEACHFIRE was nearly in Sires and Systems
* His Sire (Indian Haven) has little stamina
* He hasn't had a National Hunt winner past 2m 2f
* BEACHFIRE has placed over 2m 5f though
* That kept Indian Haven out of Sires and Systems

Conclusion

* No Selection
* I wouldn't bet Balzaccio
* I wouldn't bet Beachfire
* I wouldn't bet Sound Investment
* CARRIGMORNA KING appeals more than both






M a r k e t R a s e n 2.05

7/2 Free To Dream 7/2 Act Of Kalanisi
7/1 Greyfriars Drummer
7/1 Kaysersberg, 10/1 Going Wrong
10/1 Koultas King, 12/1 Al Co.

* This is a 3m Handicap Hurdle
* There are 100 similar races at this time of year
* GOING WRONG is statistically weak
* He is 10 years old and first time out in a 3m hurdle
* Stats clearly say no and I agree with 1 reservation
* I think he has upgraded stables since last year
* GREYFRIARS DRUMMER is a 5yo seasonal debutant
* Statistically nothing wrong with 5yo debutants
* None were off as long as he was (473 days)
* Horses absent over 400 days like him are 1-52
* That winner was much older than him
* I don't want him absent that long after a broken knee
* I would also question his stamina as well
* GREYFRIARS DRUMMER is by Where or When
* This sire's runners at 2m 5f or more are 0-22
* AL CO comes from a Handicap Chase
* Well beaten last time and topweight today
* Not the sort of profile I'd want
* KOULTAS KING may find this too warm
* KAYSERSBERG - Could pop up. No strong view.
* Neither the negatives or positives about him gripped me

* FREE TO DREAM ran well enough last time
* It was just 6 days ago after a long absence
* Strikes me that is sooner than ideal to return
* He doesn't look thrown in off 130 to me
* He has never won a handicap before
* Could easily win but his profile isn't without risks

* ACT OF KALANISI would be my choice
* Statistically hard to read with his absence
* I see him as Neutral with one concern
* I wouldn't have minded a more recent run
* I fancied him at a big price at Cheltenham
* I made the following case for him last time out
* ACT OF KALANISI - could be crying out for 3m
* He has won at 16f and 18f on the Flat
* His Dam has produced other stayers
* She has done that from sires with less stamina
* This 3m really does look what he needs
* Especially as this is his lowest ever handicap mark
* He has a good Autumn record

He ran well at Cheltenham beaten just 6 lengths.
We can forgive him that. He is not a big horse so
Cheltenham was a much harder test. That was a
0-140 Handicap Hurdle with 20 runners. This is a
0-134 with 8 runners. It's far easier. He has twice
won right handed like today. I have been waiting
to bet him over 3m trips as I feel he has ran over
too short a distance for most of his career. He's a
bit quirky and not one you can trust completely
but I have to bet him under these circumstances.

Selection - ACT OF KALANISI 3/1





W i n c a n t o n 2.25

11/8 Lumpys Gold, 7/4 Swallowshide
3/1 Knight Of Noir, 20/1 Somerset Lias
50/1 Stage King, 100/1 Already Basking
100/1 Uncle Pettit.

* This is a Novice Hurdle over 2m 6f
* November has 152 of these Novice Hurdles
* Thats 152 races over 2m 5f 2m 6f 2m 7f
* 7 Runners. 3 Fancied. 4 Rank Outsiders
* LUMPYS GOLD is 5 with 1 hurdle run
* He ran within the past 50 days
* That was beaten in a Novice Hurdle last time
* There were winners like him from shorter trips
* None though that came down from 3m distances
* That means LUMPYS GOLD is not like a winner
* Look at 4 year olds beaten in Bumpers last time
* Those with just 1 previous Bumper start
* They have a 3-76 record
* Those that ran more than 4 months ago were 1-20
* Those starting under 16/1 had a 1-5 record
* SWALLOWSHIDE shares that 1-5 record
* KNIGHT OF NOIR shares that 1-5 record
* KNIGHT OF NOIR comes from a Maiden Bumper
* None of the winners managed that
* KNIGHT OF NOIR is therefore unsafe
* There is only 1 horse like any past winner
* SWALLOWSHIDE is that horse
* Not a race I am confident about but he's the pick

Selection - SWALLOWSHIDE 9/4 Win Bet




K e m p t o n 4.40

4/1 Debt Settler, 9/2 Bazooka,
11/2 Caesars Gift, 13/2 Saffire Song, 8/1 Sweet Angelica
12/1 Porteous, 12/1 Coiste Bodhar, 20/1 Vodka Chaser
20/1 Zafraaj, 25/1 Birikyno.

* This is a 6f Nursery for 0-65 rated horses
* There are 28 similar races at this time of year
* Horses that came from 5f races were 5-82
* None of these won last time out
* DEBT SETTLER fails that having just won over 5f
* Horses from 5f races with 7 + career runs were 1-28
* DEBT SETTLER has 9 runs and has that profile
* The only winner was a filly beaten last time
* DEBT SETTLER is a male with 9 runs
* There are better profiles in this race
* BIRIKYNO is wrong froma maiden 57 days ago
* ZAFRAAJ is also wrong from a 5f maiden
* VODKA CHASER is wrong from a 5f seller
* SAFFIRE SONG is a filly from a 5f handicap
* Fillies doing that absent a month struggled
* None were absent as long as SAFFIRE SONG
* I don't think she has enough to shortlist
* PORTEOUS - No filly won absent as long
* COISTE BODHAR - Unsafe from a 7f maiden
* Especially with a difficult absence

Possibles

* Fillies coming from Maidens were 3-47
* Those with 3 runs beaten last time out are 3-26
* SWEET ANGELICA has this profile
* Her profile isn't too bad with 1 flaw
* She was beaten further than those 3 winners

Shortlist

* CAESARS GIFT comes from a 5f handicap
* I found winners with 4 6 6 runs doing this
* CAESARS GIFT has 5 runs and I can accept that
* I think he's a huge runner with a recent run

* BAZOOKA comes out very well
* He comes from a 6f handicap
* Runs within the past 3 weeks
* Beaten under 8 lengths last time out
* Having 4 career starts
* There were 6 horses with this profile
* They finished W W 12 W 2 W
* BAZOOKA shares a 4-6 record with these horses

I could go with either of these


Selection

CAESARS GIFT 11/2 Win Bet

BAZOOKA 7/2 Saver Bet

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