No Full Bet today

2 Top of the Message Bets

13 Previews


I n s i d e T o d a y 's M e s s a g e

The body blow was Newcastle being abandoned
which means I have lost the Eider Chase which
is annoying as I had been working on that race
for a few days. We have lost two other previews
there so that cost the message and it has also
robbed us of my strongest bet today. There are
other previews in big televised races which only
get in because it is Saturday. Take those away
and the Newcastle previews and its threadbare.


Today's Two Bets


Lingfield 1.55

TEMPLE ROAD 7/2

Win Bet



Chepstow 3.55 - WHITBY JACK 5/2

Kempton 4.25 - KATKEAU 2/1

Win Bet on Both horses

Each Way Double



I won't describe todays bets as sloppy seconds
but I didnt expect either bet when it looked like
Newcastle would survive. That said I liked these
horses today and think I could have two winners.
With just 2 National Hunt cards I couldnt really
afford to lose Newcastle. There was no sign of
that happening so today we make do and mend.



Today's Bets

Lingfield 1.55

TEMPLE ROAD 7/2

Statistically this is a horrible little race and one
that will be affected by the draw as the 3 market
leaders have the worst draws 10-11-12 so much
will be down to tactics and a bit of luck. I think
that TEMPLE ROAD is the one because having
watched his recent runs its clear he still has a
ton in hand and I dont believe hes finished yet.



Chepstow 3.55 - WHITBY JACK 5/2

Kempton 4.25 - KATKEAU 2/1

* Win Bet on Both

* Each Way Double

Both of these are good enough to be an outright
win bet but I've decided to couple them together
in win bets and an each way double and that is
down to value grounds. WHITBY JACK looks a
very well handicapped horse. I fancied him last
week in a classier race. I think he can win this.
I like the each way double with him as he must
show he can win on drying ground at 2m and it
could be useful if he gets outspeeded but he is
easily the best horse in the race in my opinion.

I like KATKEAU. The race is intimidating with
a huge field. This is a Public horse and plenty
of people will see his obvious chance. Despite
the viscious nature of the race my stats have
done remarkably well in this race over the last
few years and they all point to him winning. It
is definately a bet that you can question may
not be enough value at the prices and I accept
that. I think he will win though off his handicap
mark and with 4 places available I am going to
include him today as we have lost Newcastle.



F r i d a y 's R e v i e w

Plenty of ups and downs yesterday in the bottom
of the message. It went L W W W L W L L L L L
but the winners included decent winners so there
was enough to hold it's own and probably a good
profit there. The top of the message stayed quiet
for a third day. The bet on If You Whisper which I
liked best failed but the race wasnt run to suit so
I would consider him again in a weak race if he's
a decent price soon. Signs of improvement today
but it was never going to be a classic message.

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P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S



C h e p s t o w 1.35

* This is a 2m 4f Maiden Hurdle
* There looks to be 3 serious runners in this race
* ANNACOTTY was beaten in a maiden bumper recently
* Far from certain that will be enough
* PAY THE KING - Not a strong profile but acceptable
* He is the most likely winner but he is odds on
* I'd prefer a better profile for an odds on shot
* WATER WAGTAIL has hurdling experience
* Thats an advantage and he could go well
* WATER WAGTAIL to place could be the bet
* Its a better price than PAY THE KING is to win
* You could have the split stake bet instead
* WATER WAGTAIL 4/5 + Place looks the bet




L i n g f i e l d 1.55

4/1 Temple Road, 5/1 Black Cadillac, 13/2 Welease Bwian
7/1 Speak The Truth, 8/1 Rich Again, 9/1 Jack My Boy
9/1 Waabel, 10/1 Belle Bayardo, 10/1 Frognal
14/1 My Own Way Home, 16/1 Desert Strike, 25/1 Putin.

* This is a 6f handicap for 0-74 rated horses
* I have been banging on about the 6f draw here
* There have been 65 handicaps here since 2012
* Horses drawn 11 or more are 1-72 in these 64 races
* That was 0-71 but yesterday a Stall 11 won
* It was a falsely run race and that wouldnt put me off
* I would still much rather avoid the higher stalls
* BLACK CADILLAC has the worst draw in Stall 12
* He won last week and has a sound chance otherwise
* I just cant be with a horse from that stall at the moment
* RICH AGAIN is Drawn 11 also failing that statistic
* The rest of the race is a statistical mess
* No runners have absences almost all run within 2 weeks
* No runners come up in distance either
* There is a shortage of fillies in the race
* Luck will be an important factor here

TEMPLE ROAD won last time and has recent form
figures of W W 3 W. The defeat two runs ago was a
strange one. He looked to win easily and went 1.01
in running but somehow ended up on the far rail and
got caught. He did win last time and watching it on
video he had a ton in hand and wasnt even extended.
This horse still looks very well treated. With a good
passage he could outclass these. The problem is
that whilst the draw stats say avoid horses drawn 11
or more TEMPLE ROAD is drawn 10 and thats a bit
higher than I'd like. Visual impressions of him tells
me to ignore that. This looks a horse that should win.


Selection

TEMPLE ROAD 7/2




C h e p s t o w 2.10

2/1 Safran De Cotte, 11/4 Rydalis, 5/1 De La Bech
7/1 Global Power, 8/1 Firebird Flyer, 8/1 High Ho Sheriff
25/1 Okafranca.

This is a Badly framed Novice Chase and it would not
interest me because of that. Its messy. RYDALIS has
a fair chance but as a mare from a Novice Handicap
Chase she is unorthadox. I can match DE LA BECH
to winners despite no Chase runs so he must be one
of the dangerous floaters and is another reason not to
play hard. Because SAFRAN DE COTTE won on his
last start he has a good profile and the most orthadox
and safest of all of these. He is the statistical choice.
Not interested myself but SAFRAN DE COTTE is as
good a profile as any and DE LA BECH the danger.



L i n g f i e l d 2.30

2/1 Farmleigh House, 5/2 York Glory, 9/2 Piscean
6/1 Ladies Are Forever, 8/1 Capone, 14/1 Fratellino
20/1 Swiss Cross, 33/1 Noverre To Go, 50/1 Gorgeous Goblin.

* This is a 6f Listed race.
* Only 6 past renewals and none are relevant
* I would take out the horses that look outclassed
* GORGEOUS GOBLIN - NOVERRE TO GO are out
* Their ratings suggest they wont be good enough
* CAPONE is 8 older than the 6 past winners
* With just 1 run in 98 days I'm against him on fitness
* YORK GLORY comes from a Class 4 race
* Almost all his opponents come from a higher grade
* I can live with that but he has 1 run in 86 days
* I think there are going to be fitter horses here
* PISCEAN is 8 and older than all past winners
* I would prefer something younger
* He could play a place role here
* SWISS CROSS - I dont see a good enough case

Shortlist

FARMLEIGH HOUSE - FRATELLINO
LADIES ARE FOREVER

* FRATELLINO - The last furlong is the problem
* He just cant seem to get it done beyond 5f
* Wont rule out a place saver on him at 3/1
* LADIES ARE FOREVER is a mare with an absence
* I dont mind that as one has won this race
* Her trainer has said she will come on for the run
* That would worry me a bit but she is unexposed
* FARMLEIGH HOUSE - Most likely winner 2 issues
* Not keen on his absence or his price
* I am taking a chance on the filly


Selection - LADIES ARE FOREVER



K e m p t o n 2.40

5/4 Molotof, 15/8 Grandioso, 7/1 Peckhamecho
10/1 Theatre Guide, 16/1 Tour D´argent.

Not bothered about the Pendil Novice Chase with a
bad frame to the race. I appreciate GRANDIOSO is
from a stable that have won this many times but he
has not got much backclass. His one run in Graded
class was when 50/1 in a Graded Bumper. Compare
that to MOLOTOF who has won and placed before
in Graded races. Statistically I felt MOLOTOF had
the better profile for that reason and because when
the winners came from handicaps in the past they
came from at least 2m 5f or further and MOLOTOF
does and GRANDIOSO doesnt. I think one of these
should win. My angle prefer MOLOTOF of the two.



C h e p s t o w 2.45

This is a 3m Novice Handicap Hurdle and it is too difficult. No preview here. If I was betting in the race it would be to oppose a group of horses or maybe have a place lay or a match bet. The horse I want to oppose was Thomas Wild as he has raced just once this season and didnt finish the race and he could be conceeding a lot of fitness to others. I'd happily oppose him in a match bet with VIRGINIA ASH if there is one. If not then Thomas Wild may be a place lay as long as he doesnt get to a silly price. No selection here.




L i n g f i e l d 3.05

1/2 Planteur, 6/1 Arsaadi, 10/1 Marcret
12/1 Emerald Wilderness, 14/1 Tinshu
16/1 Harry Buckle, 16/1 Miblish, 33/1 Tepmokea
66/1 Dubawi Phantom.

* The Winter Derby Trial has been hijacked this year
* PLANTEUR is a Group 1 horse and different class
* Rated 121 his highest rated opponents are 109 + 102
* His stable won it with a similar type in 2010
* EMERALD WILDERNESS couldnt win a Class 3 last time
* HARRY BUCKLE only won a Class 4
* ARSAADI has an absence and is a filly
* PLANTEUR - I couldnt oppose him here

Selection - PLANTEUR



K e m p t o n 3.15

2/1 Brick Red, 5/2 Lac Fontana
4/1 Forgotten Voice, 5/1 Black Spirit
10/1 Fair Trade, 12/1 Figaro.

* The Dovecote Hurdle is a Graded Novice Hurdle.
* LAC FONTANA is the only 4 year old
* Three winners were 4 and these had 2 2 3 runs
* LAC FONTANA only has 1 run and thats a worry
* BRICK RED - His experience could be his edge
* Compare his 2 2 W 7 6 6 2 W W W record
* To a once raced LAC FONTANA
* Statistically one issue for BRICK RED
* After 9 runs he hasnt yet graduated to Graded Class
* He should have done that after 9 runs to be safe
* BLACK SPIRIT is unraced and that worries me
* All past winners of this race had ran before
* FAIR TRADE - I'd give him a chance here
* More on his flat form that anything he's done over hurdles
* FORGOTTEN VOICE was also smart on the flat
* I think I'd prefer him here now the ground is drying

Selection

FORGOTTEN VOICE 4/1





K e m p t o n 3.50

11/4 Wyck Hill, 3/1 Rolling Aces, 8/1 Nacarat
8/1 Opening Batsman, 10/1 Duke Of Lucca
10/1 Same Difference, 16/1 Quinz, 16/1 Roberto Goldback
16/1 Summery Justice, 16/1 What A Friend
25/1 Hector´s Choice, 25/1 Mister Hyde
25/1 Quantitativeeasing.

* The Racing Plus Chase is a Graded Chase over 3m
* There has been 18 renewals of this race.
* The 18 winners of this race had the following Chase starts
* 28 6 9 6 7 11 41 18 28 6 6 9 5 13 31 14 22 4
* The lightest raced chaser to win this had 4 and 5 chases
* These were Val d'Alene1995 and Gloria Victus 2000
* OPENING BATSMAN has just 3 Chase sttarts
* He isnt safe coming from a Novice Handicap
* ROLLING ACES only has 3 Chase starts
* He comes from a Novice Chase not a good sign
* No winners can from Novice Chases over 2m 6f or less
* Past winners had the following runs this season
* 3 5 2 3 4 2 6 3 4 5 4 3 5 6 2 4 4
* QUINZ fails that and is rejected first time out
* ROBERTO GOLDBACK is an exposed 11yo
* He isnt in the best of form and this may not be his race

Shortlist

* WYCK HILL - I'd shortlist him
* Plenty of little factors bother me about him
* Only 2 runs this season and a difficult absence
* Not much backclass either
* This is also a prep race and he's hardly a big price

* DUKE OF LUCCA is exposed with an 84 day absence
* Tough to do that as an 8yo
* My angles say respect him but try and look elsewhere

* NACARAT - Magnificent record in this race
* He won this in 2009 and 2012
* He was 2nd in 2010 and 3rd in 2011
* Last year he won this aged 11 first time out
* Can he win now as a 12yo absent 77 days
* Said to be his last ever race he has a chance

* SAME DIFFERENCE is 7 from a Novice Chase
* The 2011 winner of this had that profile
* SAME DIFFERENCE has much less weight than he did
* His last run was in a high class race
* You'd think he was well treated off 137
* My only issue is whether he has the speed here
* He could be a 4 miler and may stay on too late
* I think the bet here is the split stake

Selection

NACARAT 10/1 Win Bet

SAME DIFFERENCE 2/1 Place Bet




C h e p s t o w 3.55

5/2 Whitby Jack, 11/4 Landscape, 3/1 Shammick Boy
8/1 All Annalena, 10/1 Scorched Son, 16/1 Comehomequietly
20/1 Captain Sharpe, 20/1 Zama Zama.

* This is a 2m Handicap Hurdle
* I fancied WHITBY JACK last Saturday
* He was a similar price in a much better race
* He was going very well before a mistake 3 out
* After that he was eased once beaten
* He came home in his own time not knocked about
* This horse is easily capable of winning off this mark
* I like his profile today and think he will win
* My only fear is not the opposition
* Its whether 2 miles or drying ground catches him out
* Given its Chepstow he gets the benefit of the doubt
* WHITBY JACK - None of his rivals frighten me

Selection

WHITBY JACK 5/2




K e m p t o n 4.25

4/1 Katkeau, 6/1 God Of The Kop, 6/1 Quaddick Lake
7/1 Hollow Penny, 7/1 Kaylif Aramis, 9/1 Hollo Ladies
10/1 Lordofthehouse, 12/1 De Blacksmith, 16/1 Baby Shine
16/1 Gormanstown Cuckoo, 16/1 Natural Spring
16/1 Sail And Return, 20/1 Spanish Arch
25/1 Hand On Bach, 25/1 Phare Isle, 50/1 Brilliant Barca.

* This is a 2m 5f Handicap Hurdle
* There has been 19 renewals of this race
* You need a bitof experience to win this
* But you dont want to be too exposed
* Past winners had the following National Hunt Runs
* 15 12 8 12 10 7 9 9 7 17 6 9 5 9 10 9 6
* Past winners had the following Hurdle Starts
* 7 12 8 9 6 7 9 8 7 16 6
* Thats interesting as it proves that theory
* You want between 5 and 15 National Hunt runs
* Every past winner had 6-12 previous hurdle runs too
* HOLLOW PENNY has 5 runs and 2 Hurdle runs
* Thats a lot less than ideal and he is rejected
* DE BLACKSMITH looks unsafe with just 3 runs
* LORDOFTHEHOUSE has to go with just 2 runs
* KAYLIF ARAMIS only has 4 Hurdle starts
* Every past winner had at least two more
* GOD OF THE KOP has the same problem
* QUADDICK LAKE has 28 National Hunt runs
* Thats more than any winners and he is a 10yo
* Horses aged 9 or more are 0-44 in this race
* He looked good last time and could bust that stat
* He isnt the typical type that wins this race though
* GORMANSTOWN CUCKOO doesnt appeal aged 9
* BABY SHINE has a good level of exposure
* She is a Mare though and none her age won

Selection

* KATKEAU has 9 Hurdle starts
* That puts him in a very nice place statistically
* He needs to win this if he has Cheltenham aspirations
* He looks well treated and very interesting
* KATKEAU is the strongest runner statistically

KATKEAU 2/1 Win Bet




C h e p s t o w 4.30

7/2 Chestnut Ben, 4/1 Bonoman, 13/2 Malin Head
9/1 Bertenbar, 9/1 Kap West, 10/1 Hector´s House
10/1 Sablazo, 12/1 Le Grand Chene, 12/1 Zen Factor
14/1 Kinkeel, 16/1 Russe Blanc, 25/1 Autumn Haze
50/1 Mut´ab.

* This is a 2m Handicap Chase
* CHESTNUT BEN has 1 run this year and an absence
* I wanted more and see him as unsafe
* RUSSE BLANC comes from a Novice Chase
* With1 run this year and topweight I oppose him
* BONOMAN is 10 and is absent 104 days
* I think he lacks the backclass needed for that
* BERTENBAR is short of runs down in trip
* Recently downgraded yards he doesnt offer much
* KAP WEST - Not a negative but lots to answer
* Not keen he is exposed without a recent run
* Both wins came on right handed tracks as well
* So did his last 10 runs and thats a concern
* HECTOR´S HOUSE - Risky exposed down from 3m
* Especially with no recent run and a small stable
* The yards National Hunt 5 year record is 1-176
* He was 3rd in this race last year though
* MALIN HEAD - One of the more solid e/w options
* LE GRAND CHENE - Has a chance at a big price
* SABLAZO - Like his chance in a lightweights race
* He has recent runs and could go quite well
* AUTUMN HAZE - Dangerous floater
* Long absence but nibbled at big prices

Shortlist

I have not had time to sort this out but I see the race
going to a big priced lightweight and several exist.

LE GRAND CHENE 25/1 - SABLAZO 20/1
HECTOR´S HOUSE 10/1 - AUTUMN HAZE 16/1




L i n g f i e l d 4.50

4/1 Picansort, 5/1 My Son Max, 6/1 Diamond Charlie
6/1 Royal Bajan, 6/1 Triple Dream,10/1 Le Toreador
10/1 Tyfos, 14/1 Lujeanie, 20/1 Electric Qatar.

* This is a 0-85 handicap over 5f
* DIAMOND CHARLIE is not for me today
* He has never won from his handicap mark
* He is exposed yet has raced once since September 1st
* He also has 45 days off the track
* There will be fitter horses here
* MY SON MAX has similar problems
* He's also an exposed 5yo with 79 days off
* He's had just 1 run in months and no wins off his mark
* TYFOS is 8 and has 1 run since last August
* I think he will fail for fitness as well
* LUJEANIE has never won at 5f
* Dropping from 7f to 5f he looks wrong

P o s s i b l e s

* PICANSORT won last time as a 6yo
* I can find one winner like him
* His backclass does worry me though
* Every other horse has more backclass than him
* His highest winning mark is 75 today he runs off 81
* He has never won a Class 4 race before
* PICANSORT will need a career best today

* ELECTRIC QATAR has an absence
* As an unexposed 4yo I can match him to winners
* Thats not a good draw though

* TRIPLE DREAM is 8 and won last time out
* There was one winner his age that followed up a win
* Not naturally drawn to last time out 8yo winners though
* TRIPLE DREAM now faces a career high mark

Selections

* LE TOREADOR is 8 and comes from a Claimer
* There were 3 winners that did that aged 8
* One won this race in 2007 but came from 6f
* Two other 8 year olds did it from 5f claimers
* Both had 2 + weeks absence and Class 2 form
* LE TOREADOR does deserve to be shortlisted

* ROYAL BAJAN is an exposed 5yo
* He won a 5f handicap last time out
* He has Class 3 form and ran 2 + weeks ago
* I found 2 similar winners and he is a positive

Selection

Split Stake Bet

LE TOREADOR 10/1 + Win Bet
ROYAL BAJAN 9/1 + Win Bet

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