No Full Bet today
1 Top of the Message Bet
7 Previews
2 Mini Previews



Todays Bet

Punchestown 3.45

MAGNANIMITY 10/1

Each Way


I have seven horses I like today and any may
have been a bet. MAGNANIMITY is one of the
least likely of the seven to win. I am going to
make him the bet. I dont want shorter priced
horses. There are some races that could well
be threatened by non runners and some are
complicated stakes as well. MAGNANIMITY's
clear and straight forward and a good price.


* Sunday Message Tomorrow around Noon


I n s i d e T o d a y 's M e s s a g e

Seven meetings today and too much to cover
properly. I am having a short message today.
The racing is tough at the moment and we're
not alone in struggling to find some form and
it is the wrong time for 20 preview messages.

There is plenty of rain expected today which
should change the ground in places. Looking
more for quality than quantity and resisting a
temptation to go hunting in endless previews
for possible bets. I'm slimming it down today.




Today's Seven Options


I fancy all 7 of my previews so I am putting all
of these at the top of the message. I wanted to
go with one of these as the main bet for today.
These are discussed in more detail aftewards.




Ripon 1.50 - VENTURA MIST 6/1 Each Way



Ripon 3.30 - AVAILED SPEAKER 9/2 - Win Bet to half stake
Ripon 3.30 - FEELING GOOD 14/1 - Quarter of Stake Each way


Punchestown 3.45 - MAGNANIMITY 10/1 Each Way


Punchestown 5.00 - DIAKALI 4/5 -Win Bet


Leicester 5.05- UNMOOTHAJ 7/4 - Win Bet


Ripon 5.10 - ILLUSTRIOUS PRINCE 16/1 Win Bet
Ripon 5.10 - AZRAEL 6/1 Win Bet


Haydock 5.25 - PRAIRIE RANGER 5/1 Win bet 60% of Stake
Haydock 5.25 - BRASS RING 6/4 - Win bet 40% of Stake





Today's Options Summarised


Ripon 1.50- VENTURA MIST 6/1 Each Way

No more than an educated guess in a race that
forces you to do that. No interest in a strong bet.


Ripon 3.30 - AVAILED SPEAKER 9/2 - Half Stakes to win
Ripon 3.30 - FEELING GOOD 16/1 - Quarter Stake Each Way

My positives are not flawless and the negatives
not completely dead in the water. Manipulated
my angles a bit here but I like my two options.


Punchestown 3.45 -MAGNANIMITY 10/1 Each Way

I fancy this horses chance. You can easily see one
of the lighter raced chasers being too strong or at
least more progressive and he may just doss round
and fall short but this is a well handicapped class
horse thats run well in the race before and he has
a superb heavy ground record and is good value.


Punchestown 5.00 - DIAKALI 4/5 Win Bet

I think DIAKALI should win this on his Cheltenham
form in the Triumph Hurdle. If anything the 4th that
day underestimated him as he self sacrificed a bit
by setting such a strong gallop. This is far easier.


Leicester 5.05 - UNMOOTHAJ 7/4 Win Bet

I think my strategy is right in this maiden but it's
not clear whether my selection from that strategy
is correct. I hope and think it is. The obvious call
is the each way double for those wanting safety.


Ripon 5.10 - ILLUSTRIOUS PRINCE 16/1 Win Bet
Ripon 5.10 - AZRAEL 6/1 Win Bet

Lady Amateur handicaps are one of my favourite
type of bets. Not sure about this one because we
don't have nearly enough of these races during
April at 7f to be sure. I will enjoy this. Prepared
to be wrong today but I expect more profit from
these Amateur races than any other type of race
over the year and today we have a fair chance.




F r i d a y 's R e v i e w

The main bet yesterday was a Non Runner and
I suspect that was down to overwatered ground.
Alaskan Bullet didnt run and that just left us the
four top of the message options. These finished
P L L W and I hope people did not do too much
elsewhere. The message on the whole was just
weak and inneffective. It was too big and never
got going. I like to think the top of the message
acheived just enough to cover up a few of those
cracks. It wasn't good but could've been worse.

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P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S


R i p o n 1.50

7/2 Hello Beautiful, 9/2 Ventura Mist
11/2 Lexington Rose, 11/2 Woodland Girl
13/2 Atlantic Affair, 10/1 Memory Styx
10/1 Shamouti, 14/1 Lady Montenegro
14/1 Lorimer´s Lot, 16/1 Rough Courte
20/1 Rosebay Coral, 25/1 Parisian Melody
50/1 Red Tiger Lily.

This is a maiden for 2yo fillies many of whom are
unraced. It is just a guessing game. Theres a big
tempation to go with an experienced horse in an
each way single hoping that there wont be three
to beat her. Not sure about that with the last two
winners unraced but what else is there to go on.

* The 2010 2009 2008 winners had 1 run
* All 3 came from the Pikhill Maiden Stakes at Ripon
* VENTURA MIST does this today
* She'd be the each way bet that interests me most

Selection

VENTURA MIST 6/1

Each Way





S a n d o w n 2.40

I dont have the angles to sort out this high class
chase not least when the market leaders are all
unusual and complicated types. SANCTUAIRE is
interesting as he destroyed last years field and I
would make sure I couldnt lose if he won. I think
he is safer than WISHFULL THINKING is quirky as
both are. FINIAN´S RAINBOW hasnt proven he is
back to his best and he is rather lightly raced so
far this season. I see SIRE DE GRUGY as a player
as well. It's just too open. SANCTUAIRE may not
be safe enough for a bet but If I had gone for a
bet here I'd make sure I couldnt lose if he won.
I think I should sit this one out without any bets.


S a n d o w n 3.15

I have never liked the Gordon Richards Stakes
and dont rate my angles. Its impossible to know
how fit AL KAZEEM is after an injury and I think
he kills the race from a stable that can' t really
be trusted to have him right. I willl keep an eye
on EKTIHAAM as I an watching his sires record
in Group races over a mile or more and its not
very good. More bothered about the fact he is
a huge horse whose trainer stats will come on
for the run. There could be a fitness issue with
him and he is no certainty to like this track. It
is asking a lot of EAGLES PEAK to win with 3
runs from handicaps. THOMAS CHIPPENDALE
may be the bet but I my angles are just blunt.
Best guess would be THOMAS CHIPPENDALE.



R i p o n 3.30

5/2 Shearian, 4/1 Idyllic Star, 5/1 Availed Speaker
10/1 By A Wiska, 12/1 Miss Ella Jade, 14/1 Bix
14/1 Feeling Good, 14/1 Gunner Will, Windsor Rose
16/1 Ceekay´s Girl, 16/1 Munro Bagger
20/1 Miss Bossy Boots, 33/1 Mad For Fun.

* This is a selling race for 3 and 4 year olds over 9f.
* The standard is pretty dismal again this year
* A few statistics interest me but I'm ignoring some
* The first shows experience matters
* There are 9 winners of this race
* They had 16 9 5 12 29 15 9 7 11 previous runs
* I'd avoid horses that had under 4 runs
* MUNRO BAGGER - MISS BOSSY BOOTS fail that
* BY A WISKA has 6 runs and none are good enough
* CEEKAY´S GIRL isnt fanciable on any of her runs
* MAD FOR FUN doesnt offer enough
* MISS ELLA JADE is badly weighted
* Horses that come from 8f or shorter are 0-38
* That is going to be a hard stat to get right again
* Many of these come from 8f races
* Horses aged 4 (7-54) lead 3 year olds (2-37)
* Both the 3yo winners had form in Class 3 or higher
* BIX has that but is flattered by it
* He is very hard to fancy from a horrible stable
* WINDSOR ROSE doesnt appeal much
* Not with an absence and up from 7f
* GUNNER WILL - I wanted more recent form

Shortlist

* SHEARIAN is a 3yo but his profiles has problems
* He doesnt have the right backclass and comes from 8f
* I wouldnt rule him out as he has a recent run
* His fitness could be an enormous asset

* IDYLLIC STAR is a filly first time out
* Thats not what I was really looking for
* Some of her form last year is easily good enough
* With a new stable shes good enough to win

* AVAILED SPEAKER has a lot in his favour
* He's 4 with several reasonably good runs

* FEELING GOOD could win this on some 2012 form
* I think you have to consider him a player
* His last run wasnt too bad
* He was well beaten but shaped quite well

Selection

AVAILED SPEAKER 9/2 - Half Stakes to win

FEELING GOOD 16/1 - Quarter of Stake Each Way





P u n c h e s t o w n 3.45

9/4 On His Own, 11/2 Wyck Hill, 13/2 Sword Fish
8/1 Liberty Counsel, My Murphy, 10/1 Magnanimity
16/1 Carrig Millie, Cross Appeal, 16/1 Wicklow Lad
20/1 Bangonform, 20/1 Crash, 25/1 Miss Pepperpot
33/1 Fisher Bridge, 33/1 Weslife.

This is a 3m 1f Handicap Chase. Interesting race but
many open issues. ON HIS OWN is a warm favourite
but I am looking elsewhere. He is a lovely prospect
but he has plenty to prove. He has raced just twice
this season and one of those runs was falling in the
Grand National hardly an ideal preparation. He has
11st 10lbs in a race where lightweights have done
best over the years. He may well go and win but it
is heavy ground and I wanted more. WYCK HILL is
also carrying a difficult weight when you consider
that he has not run in 9 weeks and only has 3 runs
so far this season. LIBERTY COUNSEL has just won
the Irish National over further at 50/1 and its asking
a lot for a Mare to come back in trip and win this.
I dont see a great case for CRASH. Recent winners
of this race had 9 6 7 6 4 6 10 17 25 20 previous runs
over fences. MY MURPHY has only had 3 completed
Chase runs and falling in a Novice Handicap on his
last run isn't an ideal preparation. I wouldnt make
him a negative but I'd have liked a bit more chase
experience. My issue with SWORD FISH is whether
he has the Class. The Lowest rated past winner of
this race was 114 and he is rated just 111 and was
only 102 before he won last time out which was a
much better run. There is plenty to like such as an
improving lightly raced lightly weighted type but
he is out of the handicap and up in class and this
is heavy ground. MAGNANIMITY could be the one.
I'd have taken a bit less weight and perhaps less
than 17 Chase runs but MAGNANIMITY was a good
5th place in this race last year. This year he comes
into this race in better form. You could argue that
he needed the run in the Irish National and ran a
decent race in 7th. I think MAGNANIMITY is nicely
handicapped. Look at his form when he races on
Heavy Ground in the going description when not
in Grade 1 company. He has a 2 2 2 W W W 3 2 W
record under these circumstances. He may find a
lighter raced improver doing him but I doubt too
many will and in these conditions he could be a
very big price against horses with plenty to prove.

Selection

MAGNANIMITY 10/1

Each Way




P u n c h e s t o w n 5.00

10/11 Diakali, 9/2 Blood Cotil, 11/2 Stocktons Wing
8/1 Djakadam, 10/1 Dogora, 10/1 One Fine Day.

* DIAKALI could be better class
* Very good 4th in the Triumph Hurdle
* He understandably couldnt maintain a hard gallop
* I think that trumps BLOOD COTIL's run
* He was twice the price to win the Fred Winter
* STOCKTONS WING ran badly last time
* DIAKALI beat him and I feel he should again
* I would be firmly behind DIAKALI

Selection - DIAKALI




L e i c e s t e r 5.05

5/2 Unmoothaj, 3/1 Continuum, 4/1 Just Darcy
6/1 Smalib Monterg, 8/1 Maakirr, 14/1 Kalily
16/1 Reach The Beach, 16/1 Tallaay, 33/1 Whitefall.

This is a 10f maiden. I wanted to oppose the unraced
4 year old CONTINUUM as he has to concede weight
to an experienced 3 year old in UNMOOTHAJ. There
are some unraced 4yo winners. One managed to win
this race back in 2009 (Sure Dancer) but that day the
race lacked any fancied 3 year olds and I'd far rather
bet the year olds. That means KALILY is also ignored
as a 4yo seasonal debutant. SMALIB MONTERG is so
unorthadox as a 7yo that comes down from a recent
12f maiden and having to concede weight for age as
well just makes him unsafe. JUST DARCY could be a
player but the safer profile belongs to UNMOOTHAJ.


Selection

UNMOOTHAJ 7/4

Win Bet



D o n c a s t e r 5.10

9/2 Pearl Nation, 6/1 Shamrocked, 6/1 Space War
7/1 Karaka Jack, 7/1 Sunraider, 10/1 Hot Rod Mamma
10/1 Illustrious Prince, 10/1 Rasaman, 12/1 Azrael
14/1 Brigadoon, 16/1 Mitchum, 20/1 Meandmyshadow.

* This is a 7f Handicap for Amateurs
* There are only 5 Amateur Races at 7f in April
* All 5 winners had a run this season
* They actually had 4-3-3-4-1 runs that season
* I want a fit and well raced horse about to strike
* The following horses fall short in this department
* MEANDMYSHADOW - exposed mare first time out
* Not for me with a career high mark and no 7f wins
* MITCHUM - Not keen on a 4yo from a 3yo handicap
* Not having downgraded stables over the winter
* RASAMAN comes out badly as a 9yo
* Especially with 1 run this year and a heavy defeat
* SHAMROCKED didnt run well enough last time
* HOT ROD MAMMA comes out badly with 1 run this year
* Especically dropping from 12f down to 7f
* KARAKA JACK is a seasonal debutant
* I dont like that but he did win first time last year
* That was a better handicap than this here
* That said he is older now with a career high mark
* Lady Riders races rarely go to absent horses
* SUNRAIDER could have the worst draw
* He hasnt really been in form for a long time
* BRIGADOON - Too risky at this trip out of form
* PEARL NATION only has 7 career starts
* Thats very inexperienced for a Lady riders race
* I cant rule him out but he's unsafe
* SPACE WAR is quite well treated these days
* I cant judge him down from a mile statistically
* Not with so few similar races in April
* There must be a doubt about him over this trip

Shortlist

* ILLUSTRIOUS PRINCE is well raced this year
* He gets maximum respect for that
* He was a good 4th in this race last year
* He only had 1 prep run last year and 9st 13lbs
* He has 3 this year and less weight

* AZRAEL - Nice fit profile and ideal
* He is better than his last race showed

Selection

ILLUSTRIOUS PRINCE 16/1 Win Bet
AZRAEL 6/1 Win Bet




H a y d o c k 5.25

5/4 Chancery, 6/4 Brass Ring, 7/1 Prairie Ranger
10/1 Gerrards Cross, 25/1 Enchanted Garden
25/1 Hell Hath No Fury, 50/1 Urbonite
100/1 Primo Blanca.

This is a maiden just short of 12f and an interesting race
as CHANCERY is a 5 year old and because of that he has
to give 20lbs weight for age to the 3 year olds. I want to
oppose him. Horses aged 5 or more in maidens are poor.
My argument is weakened a bit as just yesterday we had
a 9yo win a maiden (Mad Moose) but this is very rare and
I'd far rather have the 3 year olds. CHANCERY hasn't got
a rating yet but I think he would be rated around 84-88 if
he had. I think it would only take a 3 year old that looks
better than a 70 rated horse to beat him getting as much
as 20lbs especially as CHANCERY hasn't raced in several
months. I dont see it being GERRARDS CROSS quite yet.

* I see two potential winners with a choice between them
* PRAIRIE RANGER each way at 5/1
* BRASS RING - Win Bet at 7/4

BRASS RING could be the right bet. Reported as decent
he looked like he was given a quiet introduction on his
recent debut. It is not difficult to presume he's got more
than enough ability to beat a 5 year old with that 20lbs
weight for age. PRAIRIE RANGER hasnt had a run this
year but statistically plenty of winners come from an 8f
maiden last year with two runs and he comes out well.

I dont want to find PRAIRIE RANGER needing the race
and failing to place and watch BRASS RING win so its
an unsual stake for this race that covers more angles.

Selection

BRASS RING 6/4 - Win bet to 40% of Stake
PRAIRIE RANGER 5/1 Win bet to 60% of Stake

This bet allows me more freedom. If Chancery wins
then we will lose anyway. BRASS RING winning will
enable us not to lose any money. The main bet being
on PRAIRIE RANGER means we are betting him after
the saver on Brass King at around 5/2 and given this
is with a saver to protect us I quite liked this staking.

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