No Full Bet Today


I n s i d e T o d a y 's M e s s a g e

Quiet start to the week. Not a lot to go with and
not much choice today. It's only a medium size
message. I've picked out 5 races I liked that did
seem to offer the chance of a decent priced bet.

I think it's going to have to be a slow start to the
week. Not going to go for a bet today. There are
two horses that are big prices today that had a
very safe profile and were similar to winners and
whilst both are hard to win with I felt their prices
were bigger than the should be so I will nominate
these horses as worth small interest bets only.

Kempton 1.50 - BREAKHEART 10/1 Each Way

Kempton 4.20 - REFLECT 10/1 + Each Way


Neither are official bets just a couple to
consider on a quiet start to the week.



S a t u r d a y 's R e v i e w

Pleased with Saturdays Cheltenham dominated
message. We had 3 winners from the 7 previews
and that included CAPE TRIBULATION the best
bet in the message. I can't remember a race as
compelling as that for a long time. Brilliant to be
on the winner in a race like that and it really did
whet the appetite for the Cheltenham Festival in
March. It shows how much the National Hunt is
missed when the weather turns bad but it looks
like we should get it back now which is pleasing.

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P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S


I decided against doing the 1.40 and 2.10 handicaps
as Previews. They are both Amateur handicaps and
normally up my street but there aren't enough races
like this to be confident and the draw bias confuses
as well. In the 2.10pm I feel LORD BUFFHEAD is a
safer choice. Lots of tight profiles but having the best
jockey and recent run swings it to LORD BUFFHEAD.


Wolverhampton 2.10

Selection

LORD BUFFHEAD 3/1




K e m p t o n 1.50

3/1 Hurricane Spirit, 4/1 Diplomatic, 4/1 Shaunas Spirit
7/1 Masai Moon, 8/1 Breakheart, 12/1 Copperwood
12/1 Dream Prospector, 16/1 Master Mylo
20/1 Greyfriarschorista, 20/1 Take Two, 33/1 Kindia.

This is a 0-75 handicap over a Mile. I have fitness issues
with GREYFRIARSCHORISTA and MASTER MYLO. Not
interested in KINDIA or TAKE TWO. I wanted a better run
last time from COPPERWOOD and dont like his draw at
all. SHAUNAS SPIRIT is a mare winning over 7f last time.
I looked at mares doing that and you want a younger and
less exposed horse with a more recent run and as she is
facing a career high mark I am taking her on. I dont want
MASAI MOON as a 9yo up in distance.

* DREAM PROSPECTOR - Average profile but shortlisted
* DIPLOMATIC - Statistically acceptable not strong
* HURRICANE SPIRIT - Wouldnt underestimate him
* Statistically he isnt safe as a 9yo from a claimer
* BREAKHEART - Nothing wrong with his profile
* I found more winers like him than the others

Selection

BREAKHEART 10/1 Each Way




K e m p t o n 3.20

7/2 Asia Minor, 9/2 Clapped, 9/2 Nolecce
6/1 Sovento, 10/1 Sir Dylan, 12/1 Evergreen Forest
14/1 Hill Of Dreams, 14/1 Zelos Diktator, 16/1 Boston Blue
16/1 Our Play, 20/1 Saffron Park, 25/1 Before Bruce
25/1 Lea Valley, 33/1 Burnbrake.

I don't think I can nail this 12f handicap but I wanted to do a quick paragraph as CLAPPED is doing something which
much be very difficult. He comes from a 6f race and moves
up to 12f. I looked at every 12f handicap run before at any
time of year. The only horses that won 12f handicaps when
coming from 6f races were horses with very long absences.
They were seasonal debutants in the spring. No horse has
do it having ran within 100 days or ran this year so I think CLAPPED is trying to do something no horse has done in recent years. That makes the race interesting but doesnt
help much in finding the winner. SOVENTO comes from a
mile and as a 9yo I find his profile too risky. ASIA MINOR
is hard to read. She is a lightly raced filly. I can just about find one winner to her but I wasn't blown away with her as favourite. Normally I would have opposed NOLECCE after being well beaten just 6 days ago. I don't fancy him but I can find one very similar winner who overcame that kind of defeat (Beyond The Pole) so He isnt a negative. There has been a lot of money for EVERGREEN FOREST and having looked at some of his rivals I can see why. He has a good handicap mark. Statistically he is unsafe with an absence and step up in trip. I didnt like his profile much but it wont surprise me if he wins given some of the risks from the others in this race. My stats are saying do no get involved but dont expect Clapped to win and dont be underestimating Nolecce just because he was beaten a long way a few days ago. The markets saying consider Evergreen Forest. I'd argue he had at least a saver role.

Selection

NOLECCE 5/1 Win Bet
EVERGREEN FOREST 4/1 Saver



K e m p t o n 4.20

3/1 Wildomar, 4/1 Brimstone Hill, 9/2 Noguchi
5/1 Nave, 10/1 Reflect, 10/1 St Ignatius
12/1 Kames Park, 12/1 King Olav, 20/1 Gaelic Silver.

This is a 0-81 handicap over 11f. There are much fewer
races over 11f then there are 10f or 12f but still enough
to build up some impressions. I felt WILDOMAR was a
dubious favourite coming down from 16f to 11f and with
a career high mark. I couldn't match him to any winner
so I leave him alone. I ruled a few out like KING OLAV
KAMES PARK and GAELIC SILVER. I am not sold on
ST IGNATIUS but couldn't make him a negative.

* NOGUCHI - Credible runner but prefer a more recent run
* BRIMSTONE HILL - Shortlistable
* NAVE - Has enough to shortlist
* REFLECT - I can find winners like him so fair chance

Selection

REFLECT 10/1 + Each Way



W o l v e r h a m p t o n 5.10

2/1 Hepworth, 4/1 Rosie´s Lady, 13/2 Mediterranean Sea
13/2 Sail Home, 12/1 Cheers For Thea, 12/1 Queen Of Skies
14/1 Bernisdale, 14/1 Candelita, 14/1 Dazzling Valentine
20/1 Elizabeth Coffee, 25/1 Amana, 25/1 Mazij.

* This is a 12f handicap for fillies
* There are 28 similar races at this time of year
* Getting the draw out of the way first
* Since 2011 there were 89 handicaps here with 9 + runners
* Horses drawn 12 or more are 0-59 in these races
* DAZZLING VALENTINE has the worst draw
* I looked at every fillies 12f handicap January-March
* Horses from maidens with 3 runs struggled
* They had a 1-23 record not a good strike rate
* That winner (Persuasion) was in 1997 in a small field
* HEPWORTH only has 3 runs
* QUEEN OF SKIES only has 3 runs
* I'd rather have more runs in a race like this
* I can't make either big negatives but I oppose them
* MEDITERRANEAN SEA doesnt look right
* Not as a 7yo with 1 run since last October
* Almost all winners had at least 2 runs in 7 weeks
* MEDITERRANEAN SEA doesnt and she is out
* AMANA is also badly underraced for a 9yo
* MAZIJ is also badly underraced
* BERNISDALE - Not first choice absent 60 days
* CANDELITA - Lots to prove absent 56 days
* ELIZABETH COFFEE doesnt offer enough

Shortlist

* ROSIE´S LADY is 4 and comes from 10f
* She has more than 12 career starts
* There were 2 winners with this profile
* Both ran within 2 weeks and she doesnt
* Only by a few days and I forgive her that
* ROSIE´S LADY - Should go quite close

* SAIL HOME scrapes on the shortlist
* I looked at horses from 10f or shorter
* There was a 5-67 record with these horses
* None of these were as exposed as SAIL HOME
* I found a 7yo win from 10f with 20 runs (Little Fox)
* SAIL HOME is 6 and has 33 runs doing it

* CHEERS FOR THEA - Keep her on side
* She is older than ideal but has big positves
* She is well treated has backclass and unexposed at 12f

Selection

CHEERS FOR THEA 12/1 Win Bet

ROSIE´S LADY 5/1 Win Bet

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