1 Bet Today


Windsor 6.10

SKY GARDEN 5/2

Win Bet


11/4 Chandler Bet365 888Sport Betfair
5/2 Generally
9/4 Ladbrokes




T o d a y 's M e s s a g e

Start of a new week. I've looked at the meetings
this week and it looks a workmanlike week with
no frills but that could be exactly what we need.
I am picking and choosing the races that go in a
message carefully at the moment as I don't want
to bother with any of the more trickier handicaps.

It's a real old fashioned style message with many
previews some longer than they should be others
shorter than they deserve. Everything crowded in
the bottom of the message and clumped together
and the task has to be identifying the better bets.




Tuesdays Message

This will be a short message. I'm going to send
messages every day including Sunday so I will
need a light day somewhere and tomorrow's a
day where there won't be much on offer. Might
even be just a One race message tomorrow.



T o d a y ' s O p t i o n s


There are a few short priced horses today which
I am going to resist. I don't really want to put one
of these up and wanted some bigger priced bets.

I have some options at bigger prices but hard to
know whether these offer enough. They are not
bets that would excite me enough for main bets.
I would nominate these 2 as borderline options.

Ayr 4.30 - BARABOY 7/1 Each Way

Thirsk 5.25

RALEIGH QUAY 10/1 Win Bet
FROSTY BERRY 12/1 Win Bet


If there is a bet today then it is this one

Windsor 6.10

SKY GARDEN 11/4

Win Bet


There is a real dilemma with this horse. I think
I have made a good case for her but she has a
weak profile. If I were to ask my angles what I
should do they would be clear. Leave her alone
as a filly down from 7f to 5f hammered last time.

There is also the problem that we have lost the
each way option as just 7 horses run. Its one of
those very difficult decisions. I may be wrong to
do this but I have convinced myself she can win
this. She may fold and look regressive but she's
given a chance to show 5f is just what she wants.




S u n d a y ' s S u m m a r y

There were only 4 previews in Sundays message
mainly down to having connection problems and
that was very frustrating. Hopefully it's sorted now.
The four selections were 4th 4th 2nd and Won and
despite that three of them were disappointing not
least Over Church Road who I wanted to place in
an each way double with my winner Slade Road.
That winner helped a lot and prevented a flop on
the day but it was never going to a lucrative day.

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P r o f i l e s & P r e v i e w s



Wolverhampton 2.15

4/7 Trinity River, 4/1 Chuckamental, 12/1 Amadaffair
12/1 Red House, 16/1 By Rights, 16/1 Dont Tell Nan
25/1 Captain Myles, 33/1 Oakley Dancer, 50/1 Liefie
66/1 Crazy Brenda.

This is a 2yo maiden. No Draw advantage here and
obviously much we can't know. TRINITY RIVER sets
a reasonable standard. On Racing Post Ratings that
looks enough to me to expect him to win this maiden.
I'd like to bet repeating that rating would win almost
every maiden race here at this time of year. I think
TRINITY RIVER will probably win this. Not interested
myself but anyone wanting a short priced double it
could be worth putting him with Simple Magic 3.15
as both horses ran in the same race last time and if
one is good enough to win so might the other horse.

Selection

TRINITY RIVER
SIMPLE MAGIC 3.15pm

Win Double




A y r 2.30

6/4 Lovelocks, 7/2 Power Up, 6/1 Western Sands
7/1 Charlotte´s Day, 7/1 Light Weight, 12/1 Vivere
16/1 Hala Hala, 16/1 Scots Law.

This is a fillies maiden over 7f. There looks to be the
choice between LOVELOCKS who has probably done
the most so far or going with an each way alternative
with POWER UP and CHARLOTTE´S DAY offering the
most. I think this pair will probably want further later
on in their careers but should go well. I suspect that
looking at all the circumstantial clues that time shows
that LOVELOCKS will be the best horse here but the
issue today is whether she is streetwise enough and
whether she can be trusted. I'd consider a split stake
which brings safety to the bet and looks promising.

Selection

LOVELOCKS 5/4 + Win Bet
POWER UP 8/11 + Place Bet





Wolverhampton 2.45

7/4 Baytown Kestrel, 3/1 Black Treacle, 3/1 Limegrove
6/1 Marilyn Marquessa, 12/1 Lovely Lily
33/1 Danetimeranger, 33/1 Faye Belle.

* This is a 2yo claimer over 6f
* We have 20 similar races in August
* Horses with 0-1-2-3 career runs were just 1-69
* That winner ended up in Group races so oppose these
* LOVELY LILY - DANETIMERANGER - BLACK TREACLE
* FAYE BELLE lacks the ability
* MARILYN MARQUESSA was well beaten last time
* Rare for a winner to have been hammered last time
* LIMEGROVE and BAYTOWN KESTREL stand out
* LIMEGROVE isn't progressing and can be fractious
* BAYTOWN KESTREL has been running in far better class
* The weights give him 2lbs advantage
* BAYTOWN KESTREL may be able to defy the weight

Selection

BAYTOWN KESTREL 6/4

Win Bet





Wolverhampton 3.15

4/5 Simple Magic, 8/1 Alquimia, 8/1 Merry Me
10/1 Palace Princess, 14/1 Elite Freedom
14/1 Whispering Star, 16/1 Exceed Areeda
16/1 Shamouti, 20/1 Rocksee, 25/1 Emerald Breeze
25/1 Maysville, 66/1 Division Belle.

This is a 2yo maiden over 6f for fillies. When previewing
the 2.15pm race I used a Racing Post Ratings argument
for selection Trinity River. It makes sense to do the same
with SIMPLE MAGIC here. The interesting connection is
that Trinity River was 2nd at Windsor with SIMPLE MAGIC
just behind in 3rd place so their form is connected and if
Trinity River wins the 2.15pm the form of SIMPLE MAGIC
will have been boosted. I couldn't oppose SIMPLE MAGIC.
Hopefully by now Trinity River will have won the 2.15pm
and anyone playing the short priced double may have a
good bet running on SIMPLE MAGIC who I think will win.



A y r 4.30

Evs Szabo´s Art, 5/1 Artful Prince, 6/1 Mash Potato
10/1 Baraboy, 14/1 Las Encinas, 16/1 Hello Gorgeous
20/1 Taxiformissbyron, 25/1 Denton Skyline, 25/1 Multisure
40/1 Smooth Handle, 66/1 Hayley.

There is a very warm favourite in this handicap. I looked
at Mark Prescott's SZABO´S ART and she has positives to
offer but I am not convinced. She has not got the best of
the draw for starters. She is also the least experienced in
the race. I wouldn't be interested in her at the price. I do accept the opposition is thin on the ground. There could
be a case for going with her in a split stake bet but that's riskier than ideal. It's a no bet race for me. I will watch a couple of outsiders with interest. LAS ENCINAS may not have stayed 12f last time. BARABOY could be going the right way now. They are my 2 outsiders against the field. The better option could be BARABOY 7/1 each way here.

Selection

BARABOY 7/1

Each Way




A y r 5.00

5/4 Kashmir Peak, 5/1 Desert Revolution
6/1 Spirit Of The Law, 7/1 Fort Belvedere
10/1 Ginger Jack, 12/1 Full Toss

This is a 0-95 handicap over 10f. Not convinced about
a few of these. There are some tricky profiles to sort
out. KASHMIR PEAK does have some flaws and as a
horse with just 1 run since last March I'm against him.
DESERT REVOLUTION only has 3 races. I can't make
him a negative but equally I struggled to match him
to any winners and he wouldn't be my first choice as
there are safer profiles. FULL TOSS is lacking races
this season for an exposed seven year old so is out.
Hard to read is FORT BELVEDERE and as he is lighter
raced than all similar 5 year olds up in distance I see
him as unorthodox. The safest profile her is probably
SPIRIT OF THE LAW who ran well at Goodwood last
time out. He has less to prove than several of these.

Selection

SPIRIT OF THE LAW 7/2

Win Bet




T h i r s k 5.25

4/1 Haymarket, 4/1 Maybeme, 5/1 Sea The Flames
5/1 Strikemaster, 10/1 Joyful Motive, 10/1 Raleigh Quay
12/1 Frosty Berry, 14/1 Inffiraaj, 14/1 Mister Carter
20/1 Ferney Boy, 25/1 Non Dom.

* This is a 2m Amateur Riders Handicap
* This is a brand new race and very few similar races
* I looked at all low grade 2m handicaps
* I would oppose the following through a lack of fitness
* HAYMARKET is 4 absent 248 days
* No 4yo won absent anywhere as long as that
* MISTER CARTER is underraced from 10f and 2 runs this year
* NON DOM is out with 1 run this season
* SEA THE FLAMES has 697 days off the track
* FERNEY BOY - Not keen he is 7 absent 57 days
* Not when he has nothing in the way of backclass
* INFFIRAAJ looks a non stayer over this far
* His Sire hasn't bred a 14f winner yet never mind 2m
* JOYFUL MOTIVE flopped just 10 days ago
* I think he is a bit short of runs this year
* Given no backclass his profile is weak


Shortlist

* STRIKEMASTER is 7 and up from 12f
* There was one winner who had less weight
* I'd have preferred more runs this season for him
* MAYBEME has a neutral profile
* No mare as old as her has tried to win up from 12f
* She is fit though and has plenty of backclass
* MAYBEME is not proven beyond 12f though
* 5 times she has ran over further and never placed
* 4 of those runs were heavy defeats
* She's from a sire without a win beyond 13f
* If MAYBEME stays I think she will win
* There is a lot of evidence against her staying though

* RALEIGH QUAY's sire hasn't bred a winner past 13f
* RALEIGH QUAY has ran well at 2m before though
* I think he has one of the better profiles here
* All his wins are right handed and he runs in snatches
* He isn't an impressive type but this is a weak race
* I think he has a better chance than most

* FROSTY BERRY is hard to read
* I can find positives and negatives in her profile
* As a 4yo filly I would keep her on my side
* I do like the fact she's recently upgraded stables
* Last time out she faced a 70 day absence
* Entitled to need that and a first run for a new yard
* FROSTY BERRY could be worth considering here

Selection

RALEIGH QUAY 10/1 Win Bet
FROSTY BERRY 12/1 Win Bet



Windsor 5.40

Very difficult to see past MERLETTA who was given
a nice introduction to racing at Doncaster. That was
on a Grade 1 track against some decent opponents
and She was prominent in the market despite being
first time out against some experienced types. With
normal improvement I'd expect MERLETTA to win.




W i n d s o r 6.10

6/4 Hi Filwah, 2/1 Sky Garden, 5/1 Trisara
10/1 Emjayem, 20/1 Joyous 20/1 Never A Quarrel
50/1 Alberto.

This is a 5f maiden for 3 and 4 year olds. I may have
to ignore my statistics here. I like SKY GARDEN here
but she is not safe statistically as a filly that comes
from a 7f race to a 5f race. Thats a worry and she is
coming here after a 16 length defeat so there are a
lot of statistical worries about her than I'm ignoring.

The favourite is HI FILWAH. Statistically find and is
bound to go close. He has 3 times ran well but he's
not won yet and the standard he sets isn't that high.
He doesn't have the soundest of legs apparently so
you could argue faster ground may not be perfect.
He is the most likely winner and bound to go close
but I wanted to point out we shouldn't be afraid to
take him on. TRISARA could run well but I feel she
is beatable just as EMJAYEM and JIMINY should be.

SKY GARDEN

Very rare for me to select a filly hammered last time
over 7f and dropping from 5f. Statistically there have
not been many try like her and none that had raced
so many so I can argue she has a neutral profile here
rather than a poor one. She is not a positive though
so I will attempt to explain why I want to risk her.

* SKY GARDEN's dam is Superstar Leo
* Superstar Leo was a high class sprinter over 5f
* She has bred some very smart horses as well
* She bred Enticing rated 112 - Sentaril (108) Speed Song (86)
* Superstar Leo never stayed beyond 5f
* All her offspring were by sires with more stamina
* SKY GARDEN's sire has the lowest stamina index of them

* There must be a case that she hasn't been staying
* SKY GARDEN could well be a 5f horse
* After her debut she finished 2nd 2nd 3rd as a 2yo
* These runs were all over 6f maybe too far
* William Haggas had a 77 rated horse at the end of the year
* He could easily have sold her for decent money but didn't
* In 2013 she has lost twice so far
* I can excuse her debut absent 200+ days against fitter horses
* She surely didn't stay 7f last time out
* At the 5f point last time she was bang there at Leicester
* This is the first chance she may have had ideal conditions
* That's fast ground and 5f


* I have to ask myself if HI FILWAH really wants 5f
* His Sire (Medaglia D´oro) spent his career from 6f-12f
* Medaglia D´oro has so far bred 37 winners
* Only 1 of these was over 5f
* That was a 2 year old (Yarooh)
* Several others he bred were beaten at short prices over 5f

* SKY GARDEN could well be worth considering here
* My angles argue I am wrong and taking a silly risk
* I am going to ignore those and give her 1 chance
* I think we will probably make the running
* The race may well be decided by how fast we travel
* I'd expect the favourite to hunt us and come late
* I think these are our conditions and not his
* I am hoping SKY GARDEN has the pace to beat him


Selection

SKY GARDEN 11/4

Win Bet





W i n d s o r 6.40

3/1 Wordismybond, 5/1 Jay Bee Blue, 6/1 Norphin
6/1 Rioja Day, 8/1 Shifting Star, 10/1 Lady Sylvia
10/1 Rock Anthem, 10/1 Royal Marskell, 14/1 Kilburn
20/1 Our Golden Girl.

* This is a Mile handicap for 0-68 rated horses
* ROYAL MARSKELL is 4 and comes from a maiden
* Horses doing this have a 1-41 record
* That winner had 13 runs and he has only 3
* NORPHIN is wrong as a 3yo with 1 run this year
* I can't match him to any winners down in trip
* OUR GOLDEN GIRL is a 3yo filly absent over a month
* None managed that with 9 or more career runs
* ROCK ANTHEM is 9 with just 1 run since April
* KILBURN is 9 and absent a worrying 68 days
* With 2 runs this season he looks underraced

Possibles

* SHIFTING STAR is 8 and comes from a 7f race
* I looked at all horses his age doing this
* Those without a run within 7 days were 2-88
* Both winners had 8st 11lbs some 15lbs less than him
* SHIFTING STAR is well treated so can't be ruled out
* His profile's unsafe - has not won in 25 races or over 8f

* JAY BEE BLUE is 4 and won last time out
* There were 30 winners aged 4 that won last time
* None of these managed it absent more than a month
* JAY BEE BLUE has been absent 44 days
* I can't rule him out but there is a doubt there

Shortlist


* RIOJA DAY is 3 from a 3yo handicap with 9 runs
* He has raced only three times this season
* I looked at similar types with 7 or more runs
* Most horses with that profile had more runs that year
* I was struggling to find a similar winner but I did
* Only 4 days ago at Brighton Pour La Victoire won
* With a similar profile that horse proved it can be done
* RIOJA DAY is therefore a positive
* I just find it hard to bet any John Hills Horse

* LADY SYLVIA is a 4yo filly absent 47 days
* 4yo fillies doing that with 13 + runs are 3-40
* All 3 winners had less weight than she does
* Only by a bit though and that wouldn't worry me
* LADY SYLVIA has a bit to prove but is overpriced

* WORDISMYBOND has one of the safer profiles
* He has the best jockey as well
* Solid chance without getting excited about him

Selection

LADY SYLVIA 12/1 Win Bet
WORDISMYBOND 3/1 Saver Bet

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