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Today's Bet


Newmarket 5.00

HEAD OF STEAN 11/1 Each Way

MEZZOTINT 9/1 Win Bet


* Staking advice to each £10 stake

* £4 Each Way Head Of Steam

* £2 Win Mezzotint


* Head of Steam is 12/1 Ladbrokes Corals
* 11/1 Skybet PPower Stan James
* Mezzotint is 9/1 Betfred SpBet Tote




T o d a y 's M e s s a g e

Saturdays are always interesting but challenging
and a 13 preview message today. We have come
out of a difficult period where I have struggled to
find anything. I had a decent message Thursday
and winning message yesterday which suggests
I am back in form. The Natural order would be a
winner today but Racing doesn't always respect
the Natural order. The message is as good as the
racing will allow given all the changing issues a
Saturday brings so lets hope for some good luck.



T o d a y' s O p t i o n s


Lots of good chances throughout the message
without being Maximums in any way. With the
right amount of luck we could nail a few and
finish in front. The Cambridgeshire doesn't rock
my boat like it used to. It is a generic message.

Todays Option

Ripon 3.45

CHOOSEDAY 7/1

Each Way

Not sure how far to trust my angles in this race.
They clearly point to Chooseday winning but it
is an open race and not a typical Class 2 race.



Account Bet

Newmarket 5.00

HEAD OF STEAN 11/1 Each Way

MEZZOTINT 9/1 Win Bet

I was keen to go with something a big price as
I haven't found much recently that started long.
Not an easy race but my angles are clear and
I think these two have chances. There are lots
of sexier younger options but I prefer these 2.

Obviously a winner is unlikely but at least there
is a main bet today and at a decent price as well.



F r i d a y 's S u m m a r y

Another good step in the right direction and lets
hope we've seen the back of a difficult little run
where bets were rare. Three options yesterday
and two winners. MISS FRANCE won first which
was nice as we knew then we couldn't lose from
the three bets. IHTIMAL could only finished third
and I felt he didn't seem suited to how the race
developed held up off the pace. FATHER FRED
won in the evening to repair the damage so we
came out with a decent top of the message and
the bottom of the message also performed quite
well. Good overall message which was needed.

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P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W


Market Rasen 1.45

9/4 Royal Irish Hussar, 3/1 Duroble Man
7/1 Fox Norton, 7/1 Town Mouse, 8/1 Kitchapoly
9/1 Couloir Extreme, 10/1 Hi Candy, 12/1 Jubilee Games
50/1 Double Jeopardy, 66/1 Shesnotforturning.

I shouldn't really be meddling in a juvenile hurdle
when the market leaders have never ran before in
a hurdle race and come from two Powerful stables.
I checked both Nicky Henderson and Alan King for
Juvenile Hurdle debutants at this time of year and
both trainers have very solid records. The market's
preferring ROYAL IRISH HUSSAR and Henderson is
a better and more reliable trainer and there is no
reason why he can't win. I think the frame of this
race and the prices suggest that DUROBLE MAN's
the smarter bet each way from a stable that have
won this race twice including with Katchit winner
of the Champion Hurdle later in his career. He's a
smarter bet for me much as we have to guess.

Selection

DUROBLE MAN 3/1

Each Way



C h e s t e r 1.55

9/4 Dynaglow, 11/4 Rough Courte, 9/2 Stybba
5/1 Baars Causeway, 14/1 Kinloss, 14/1 Pacquita
14/1 Tiffany Bay, 20/1 Layla´s Red Devil
33/1 Dancing Sal, 100/1 Enfys Hud, 100/1 Lady Bubbles.

* This is a fillies maiden over 7f
* No unraced horse has yet won this race
* LAYLA´S RED DEVIL - TIFFANY BAY are out
* There are probably too many experienced types
* KINLOSS has ran two down the field races
* Every chance he is being handicapped
* One of 4 can win this race
* STYBBA - Plenty to prove after a poor debut
* ROUGH COURTE has 12 runs already
* 277 similar races none had more than 8 runs
* Only 9 tried though so I don't see her as a negative
* DYNAGLOW is a strong runner
* BAARS CAUSEWAY - Stall 10 doesn't worry me
* This race and it's known unknowns requires guesswork
* Looks the right race for a split stake bet

Selection

DYNAGLOW 9/4 Win Bet

BAARS CAUSEWAY 6/4 Place Bet



Newmarket 2.00

Evs Berkshire, 2/1 Somewhat, 6/1 Washaar
8/1 Kingfisher, 50/1 Sir Jack Layden.

Not too clear about the Royal Lodge. I can tell you
that 16 renewals and the longest absent winner in
this is 71 days and Berkshire has 98 days absence.
That puts me off. I prefer SOMEWHAT because of
this and the fact four previous runs coming from a
Listed race is the same profile of last years winner.

Selection

SOMEWHAT 6/4

Win Bet





Haydock 2.25

11/4 Dancing Sands, 4/1 Flippant, 4/1 Minnaloushe
5/1 Ghinia, 10/1 Betty The Thief, 12/1 Dalmarella Dancer
12/1 Testing, 14/1 Cascading, 14/1 Cradle Of Life
25/1 Bella Varenna, 25/1 Mrs Pat, 40/1 Quest Of Colour.

This is a 2yo maiden over a mile for fillies. I think
the chances are that DANCING SANDS should win.
Assumptions have to be made in these races and
you never understand all you need to know but I
think it all points to her. FLIPPANT has a bad draw
in Stall 1 and that would really put me off. GHINIA
actually has a better form chance than you'd think
and it wouldn't be a shock if she won but Pam Sly
or a Godolphin horse is an easy choice to make.
TESTING has a lot to prove on her poor debut run.
MINNALOUSHE should run well and improve from
her debut but on Racing Post Ratings she has 20lbs
to find with DANCING SANDS. There was a lot that
I liked about DANCING SANDS with two runs and a
recent run. When second last time there was a big
gap to the third. She's the most likely winner here.

Selection

DANCING SANDS 7/4

Win Bet





Market Rasen 2.50

7/1 Bold Chief, 8/1 Grandads Horse, 8/1 The Disengager
10/1 Al Co, 10/1 Dover´s Hill, 10/1 Kian´s Delight
10/1 Rob Conti, 12/1 Bobowen, 12/1 Finger Onthe Pulse
12/1 Twirling Magnet, Well Regarded, 12/1 Wiesentraum
14/1 Buck Mulligan, 20/1 Bouggler, 20/1 King Of The Night
20/1 Owen Glendower.

It's a bit early for 2m 6f Handicap Chases in Listed
Grade and it makes no sense to spend hours here.
I am just trying an experiment to see if this works.

* September and October
* I looked at all Handicap Chases between 2m 5f-2m 7f
* Thats every Handicap Chase in Class 2 and Listed Grade
* There were 17 of these races
* 9 were the renewals of this race
* 8 other races at other tracks
* I wanted to see how many Chases winners had
* The 9 winners of this race had the following Chase runs
* 9 7 9 5 15 18 12 5 6
* The 8 winners of similar races elsewhere had these
* 33 8 29 8 10 5 16 6
* Therefore 17 winners had these Chase runs
* 9 7 9 5 15 18 12 5 6 33 8 29 8 10 5 16 6
* The least experienced Chaser had 5 runs
* I looked at horses with 1-2-3-4 previous Chase runs
* All 28 that had this lost in these 17 races
* Statistically I should be opposing these horses
* I will list them and their chase starts in brackets
* Bold Chief (3) Grandads Horse (3) Bouggler (4)
* Well Regarded (4) Wiesentraum (4)
* King Of The Night (4) Kian´s Delight (4)
* All these horses are Negatives
* No Selection to win the race


H a y d o c k 3.00

7/2 Monsea, 9/2 Ehtifaal, 9/2 El Najmm
7/1 Beyond Smart, 7/1 Mountain Fighter
7/1 Personal Opinion, 10/1 Rogue Wave, 14/1 Year Of Glory
16/1 Caridadi, 16/1 Ujagar, 20/1 Come On Sunshine
33/1 Express Himself, 33/1 Pershing, 50/1 Application
50/1 Whitby High Light.

No idea what will win this 2yo maiden over a mile.
I would take a fancied experienced horse and go
with him each way. EL NAJMM around 5/2 looks as
good a bet as any in a race we do have to guess in.




C h e s t e r 3.05

5/2 Zain Eagle, 3/1 King Of The Danes, 3/1 Tajheez
6/1 Gabrial´s Kaka, 10/1 Romantic Settings
12/1 Powder Hound, 20/1 Asgardella
33/1 Ocean Applause.

* This is a 3yo handicap over 10f
* I have a conflicting opinion about ZAIN EAGLE
* First if all he comes from a Doncaster Classified race
* 3 of the 7 past winners came from that same race
* It's very unusual for a race like that to be a great trial
* That interests me about him but I opposing him
* All 7 winners had at least 6 runs that year
* They had at least 6 career starts
* They also all ran within 22 days
* ZAIN EAGLE has fewer runs that all other runners
* I think that could leave him short today
* POWDER HOUND also looks short of runs this year
* KING OF THE DANES is also short of runs
* He's also absent 127 days another worry
* OCEAN APPLAUSE is out of his depth
* ASGARDELLA wants rain and didn't offer enough

Shortlist

* TAJHEEZ - Profile fine but drifting badly in market
* Has to prove he is suited by the track of course
* Every other runner has the same problem though

* GABRIAL´S KAKA - I don't have a statistical problem
* GABRIAL´S KAKA also has to prove he stays
* He is an overall positive though

Selection

GABRIAL´S KAKA 6/1 Win Bet

TAJHEEZ 6/1 Saver Bet





Haydock 3.30

* I abandoned this race half way through
* Couldn't break through to reduce my shortlist
* I've taken out all my negatives
* I think one of these 7 horses might win
* Secret Witness - Masamah -Noble Storm - Racy
* Jiroft - Burning Thread - Cheviot
* I ran into a brick wall so moving on


R i p o n 3.45

4/1 Seeking Magic, 6/1 Doc Hay, 6/1 Fast Shot
7/1 Spinatrix, 8/1 Above Standard, 8/1 Chooseday
12/1 El Viento, 12/1 Love Island, 12/1 Summerinthecity
14/1 Rodrigo De Torres, 16/1 Thunderball.

This is a Class 2 handicap over 6f. I have used all
6f handicap statistics in September and October
but most of these races have bigger fields. There
are a few with smaller fields like this but it might
not be completely safe to use traditional Class 2
angles to this sort of race. All I have done here is
go through each runner one by one with an open
mind and looked for profiles I liked that I matched.

* SEEKING MAGIC has a career high mark
* With 1 run in 118 days
* SUMMERINTHECITY - Unsafe well beaten last time
* RODRIGO DE TORRES - Beaten too far last time
* He also has the worst of the draw
* THUNDERBALL - I needed a better last run
* ABOVE STANDARD - Needs career best with flawed profile
* No unexposed 5yo won coming up in trip
* LOVE ISLAND - Her profile is not that bad
* She just looks badly handicapped though
* DOC HAY - Wasn't too far away from a winner
* Form a conditions race his profile was unsafe
* SPINATRIX - No female won aged 5 or more
* She's never won off this mark or in this class
* EL VIENTO - Tough mark but not too far away
* FAST SHOT - 1 similar winner and shortlistable
* CHOOSEDAY - 2 similar winners

Selection

CHOOSEDAY 7/1

Each Way




N e w m a r k e t 3.50

The Cambridgeshire only gets a short paragraph
this year. I sent some statistics a few days ago so
anyone could have a play with the race. There's
no real draw advantage here. The chances that
we get this winner must be slim and these days
and spending two hours on the race is wasteful.
I applied my statistics to each runner and came
up with 5 horses that I wanted to shortlist here.

PROUD CHIEFTAIN - Huge Price but passes trends
GABRIAL THE GREAT - Solid enough - Stall 1 a worry
DANCHAI - No statistical reason why he can't win
QUEENSBERRY RULES - One of the better profiles
CODE OF HONOR - Comes out well

I will be happy if any of these 5 horses win. Trying
to stake this isn't easy and I need to be very lucky.

Selection

PROUD CHIEFTAIN 50/1 Win Bet
QUEENSBERRY RULES 16/1 Win Bet
CODE OF HONOR 16/1 Saver Bet




N e w m a r k e t 4.25

7/2 Remember, 6/1 Meeting Waters
7/1 Hala Hala, 8/1 Bureau, 8/1 Captain Secret
8/1 Ticking Katie, 12/1 Autumn Lily, 12/1 Cornish Path
12/1 Dance Bid, 14/1 Thewandaofu, 20/1 Heskin
20/1 Kanz.

* This is a Fillies Nursery over 7f
* Its a Class 2 race and there are 16 similar races
* 15 of the 16 winners were rated 89 or lower
* AUTUMN LILY rated 93 is not for me
* I suspect the weight and absence will beat her
* HESKIN - None have won this beaten as far as her
* I looked at horses from 8f races
* Horses doing this were 2-31
* Both winners had 8 career starts
* Those with under 8 starts from 8f races were 0-23
* DANCE BID- HALA HALA - THEWANDAOFU fail this
* KANZ doesn't look the right type
* BUREAU won a handicap last time
* It was only a Class 5 races this is Class 2
* May be asking a lot to win in three grades higher

Possibles

* CAPTAIN SECRET comes from a Class 5 race
* I liked his profile as she's like the 2003 winner
* She also won from a Class 5 Novice with 3 runs
* MEETING WATERS won easily 9 days ago
* This is better class but easy to see why people like her
* My problem is Stall 12 if she's stuck on the outside
* REMEMBER - I'd have liked another run
* Horses from handicaps I prefer with 4 runs not 3
* TICKING KATIE comes from a Good trial race
* The 1999 2010 and 2012 winners did the same
* CORNISH PATH comes from a Good trial race
* The 1999 2010 and 2012 winners did the same
* Hard to split these so have to choose one of them

Selection

TICKING KATIE 6/1

Each Way




Haydock 4.40

3/1 Electra Spectra, 5/1 Vicksburg
7/1 Heavenly Sound, 7/1 Sureness, 7/1 Wall Of Sound
9/1 Rosaceous, 10/1 Cosmic Halo, 10/1 Princess Caetani
16/1 Cruck Realta.

This is a Fillies Handicap. Quite a decent one but
I didn't have enough negatives to keep my interest.

* ELECTRA SPECTRA won a maiden and has 2 career runs
* Thats the weakest profile from the 3 market leaders
* She may win but there are at least 2 better profiles
* I looked at horses from maiden races
* Those that were 1st or 2nd last time out with 4 runs
* There was a W W record from these types
* The 2006 winner of this race was one of these
* VICKSBURG has this profile and could go well
* I haven't looked at any other runners
* Wasn't worth the time without good negatives




N e w m a r k e t 5.00

5/1 Majestic Moon, 7/1 Regal Dan
8/1 Flyman, 9/1 Mezzotint, 10/1 Ayaar, 10/1 Frontier Fighter
10/1 Head Of Steam, 14/1 Spin Artist 14/1 Tellovoi
16/1 Tariq Too, 33/1 Spiritual Star.

* This is a 7f handicap
* I have some good history in this race
* We backed the winner of this in 2011 at 16/1
* Nostalgia has partly dragged me into this race
* So to has some negatives with the market leaders
* My angles may fail but they are accurate to date
* There are 76 of these races in September-October

* I looked at horses from 3yo handicaps
* They had a poor 2-105 record since 1995
* Those with Under 7 runs that season were 0-65

* FLYMAN fails this with 4 runs this season
* SPIN ARTIST fails this with 4 runs this season
* REGAL DAN also fails with 5 runs this season
* Both winners from 3yo handicaps won with recent runs
* Those that did not race within 2 weeks were 0-57
* MAJESTIC MOON fails that and isn't like any winners
* FRONTIER FIGHTER is unsafe with 116 days off
* TARIQ TOO looks underraced this season
* SPIRITUAL STAR doesn't look good enough
* AYAAR is a 3yo and has 16 career starts
* Almost all 3yo winners had 12 or fewer runs
* Those like AYAAR with 13 + runs were 2-67
* Both of these won in small fields
* Neither dropped in trip from a mile either
* Horses aged 3 from Mile races were 2-97
* Those with 9 or more runs were 0-50
* AYAAR fails that and is rejected

Shortlist

* MEZZOTINT is 4 and just won a 7f handicap with 18 runs
* Thats an acceptable profile much as he's quirky
* I wonder if he is a small field horse
* His wins came in fields of 7 14 8 7 9
* The 14 runner race he won was unusual
* He was able to race freely without others bothering him
* His other runs in fields of 13 or more is as follows
* 12th 11th 12th 3rd 11th 13th 7th
* I looked at his Sire Diamond Green
* When having runners in handicaps in Class 4 or higher
* Those in races with 14 or more runners were 1-52
* Those in smaller field races were 16-129
* Shortlisted but career high mark and field a worry
* Three non runners have helped a great deal

* TELLOVOI - Impossible to read accurately
* Most runs abroad. Ground question marks too.

* HEAD OF STEAM - Surprisingly solid profile
* Form over course and distance looks solid
* He's won in the class of the same mark
* I think a high draw is better than a low one
* Drawn 12 is good and I like his price and profile

Selection

HEAD OF STEAM 12/1

Each Way

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