No Strong Bet

Two Bets Today


T o d a y ' s O p t i o n s

It was touch and go whether I did a message today
but despite Plumpton and Wolverhampton down on
my list of favourite tracks it seemed a few races do
look good enough to mention. Not bothered about
detail and prsentation today. I intend a stressless
light day after a big Saturday message yesterday.

The First week of 2013 has ended and we have a
week of two halfs. Some great results at the start
of the week with 5 winners from 7 bets but we did
have three defeats over Friday and Saturday. We
are still nicely ahead but it could have been much
better than it was. Lessons to be learnt of course
but today I have to get this low key mail out early.

No Bet Today


* My best options are short prices
* Decided not to bother with a Bet today
* Six Previews in the message
* 2 at Plumpton and 4 at Wolverhampton
* Three Selections Staked
* I was most confident about these three horses


Wolverhampton 2.45 - BERLUSCA 5/4

Wolverhampton 3.20 - ACTIVATE 4.6

Wolverhampton 5.20 - PUTIN 13/8


I will be dissapoined if I dont get at least 2 winners
from the 3 bets but of course at these prices I will
need to to win anything. Obvious risks that I could
pick the wrong one. I think they will all win but not
easy to land all three and the best thing to do is to
leave the account blank and leave a bet up to you.



S a t u r d a y 's R e v i e w

The worst part of my job is losing Saturdays and it
was a 0-2 defeat yesterday. LADY OF VERONA is
probably an overstaked bet. I don't have a problem
with THE BIG FREEZE's run. I predicted the winner
wouldn't stay and I dont think he did. He was punch
drunk and we were trying to catch him conceeding
a big weight. In the end we just failed and that was
a shame. In these tiny fields anything can happen
and I was hoping the winner would empty but that
was on very heavy ground and we were giving 18lb
and that was too much. Dissapointed with those 2
results. The rest of the message hardly disgraced
itself. The 15 Previews at the bottom produced one
or two nice results. The message faded late on but
we had 5 winners and a place with 9 losers and as
a couple were decent prices there was enough to
finish in front by some way. Its just not where the
profit should have been so its was a let down day.

**************************************************
**************************************************

P R O F I L E S @ P R E V I E W S


P l u m p t o n 1.25

Evs Salden Licht, 6/5 Vulcanite, 5/1 Vino Griego
100/1 Double Or Quitz, 100/1 Tchang Goon.

This is quite an interesting Novice Chase over 2m 1f.
There are only 3 possible winners of this race. I dont
rule out VINO GRIEGO but he's 0-16 over fences and
would surely prefer a right handed track. It looks like
a match to me. VULCANITE beat SALDEN LICHT at
Hereford last time. That was VULCANITE's first race
over fences and he did it well. He was fit though and
had been in form before that. SALDEN LICHT ran in
his first chase as well that day and he did well to be
under a length behind in second when you consider
that SALDEN LICHT was absent 606 day beforehand
and his trainer warned he would need the run and he
was not quite ready. SALDEN LICHT was the better
hurdler and gets a weight pull today. It should come
down to which can improve more than the other from
their Chase debuts especially at this extra distance
but given the choice it all points to SALDEN LICHT.

Selection - SALDEN LICHT 5/4


P l u m p t o n 2.25

15/8 Aureate, 4/1 Noble Chic, 9/2 Rulbin Realta
5/1 Marble Walk, 6/1 Gilded Age, 12/1 Romney Marsh
12/1 Whitcombe Spirit, 33/1 Budsson, 50/1 She´s Jolly.

This is a 2m 5f Handicap Hurdle. I thought there was just
enough to jot something down. There are two outsiders I
see nothing in. NOBLE CHIC is from a Novice Handicap
Hurdle. Several winners did that but I needed a few more
runs and a lot less weight before I could match him. He's
got a shaky profile with that weight after a couple of races. Horses like RULBIN REALTA from 2m Novice Hurdles do
not score well and none were female like her. Also female
is ROMNEY MARSH and as a 12yo hammered last time she looks unsafe. WHITCOMBE SPIRIT was beaten too
far just 7 days ago.

* GILDED AGE - Unsafe but I'd shortlist him
* May have gone off too fast last time
* Well treated but dissapointing and stamina to prove
* AUREATE - Average but at least in form unlike many
* MARBLE WALK - Hard to read but shaping well
* Drops in class today after two warm up runs
* Not much form but been hiding in better class
* May not have stayed last time and has to be respected

Selection - MARBLE WALK 7/2




W o l v e r h a m p t o n 2.45


13/8 Berlusca, 5/2 Brown Pete, 12/1 Flying Applause
14/1 Maz, 16/1 Mr Chocolate Drop, 20/1 Glass Mountain
20/1 Poetic Power, 25/1 Cabal, 33/1 Scamperdale.

This is a 0-67 handicap just short of 10f and I'd not want
to see past either of BERLUSCA or BROWN PETE both
last time out winners recently. There is a case for either
of these horses. BROWN PETE is on a four timer. With
3 non runners it's hard to predict whether his draw might
hurt his chance a little. I much prefer BERLUSCA of the
two. He has a more recent run. He on a much stronger
race than BROWN PETE did last time and did it more
easily. I also love the fact BERLUSCA has upgraded in
stable recently. I see it an advantage that he has moved
from Mark Brisbourne whos had 19 flat winners in 2012
and 2013 to David O'Meara who's had 69 winners in the
same period. In fact David O'Mears recent form is quite
exceptional. Since Boxing Day the stable have ran 15
horses finishing 3 W W W W W 3 W 2 2 2 6 2 W 2 a
really strong record. I think BERLUSCA will improve it.

Selection

£10 Win - BERLUSCA 5/4




W o l v e r h a m p t o n 3.20

4/5 Activate, 9/2 Jordaura, 5/1 Yourinthewill
6/1 Turjuman, 12/1 Amber Moon.

This is a small field selling race and its best left to the
favourite ACTIVATE. He has much more backclass than
his rivals and it does no harm that he is trained by such
an inform stable. In the 2.45pm preview I showed all the
recent David O'Meara runners and its an impressive and
compelling record. I couldnt look past ACTIVATE here.

Selection

£10 Win - ACTIVATE 4/6 +



W o l v e r h a m p t o n 3.50

11/4 Fortinbrass, 7/2 Rene Mathis
4/1 Boxing Shadows, 9/2 Archie Stevens
6/1 Equitania, 8/1 Midnight Dream.

This is a quality small field 0-89 handicap just shy of 6f.
I wanted to oppose RENE MATHIS. Not a negative but
I felt his inexperience left him vulnerable to two decent
alternatives. FORTINBRASS and ARCHIE STEVENS
are hard to split. I see FORTINBRASS as the superior
horse but it's very hard to know how one race since as
far back as June will affect him. In his favour he is not
too exposed but statistically I ran into a dead end with
that problem. ARCHIE STEVENS is fitter and may be
improving. Its a close call. I'd expect them to beat the
bloodless maiden winner BOXING SHADOWS. I feel
they will beat EQUITANIA too but she is a dangerous
lurker. I can only see a win bet and saver here. It may
be best to save on FORTINBRASS with the main bet
on ARCHIE STEVENS hoping his fitness may prevail.



W o l v e r h a m p t o n 5.20

2/1 Putin, 5/1 Athaakeel, 6/1 Divertimenti
7/1 Hold The Star, 8/1 Blue Noodles, 9/1 Cape Of Storms
12/1 Ishetoo, 14/1 Onceaponatime, 20/1 Johnson´s Cat
25/1 Colamandis.

This is a low grade handicap mjust short of 6f. I think
it is best left to yesterdays winner PUTIN. He is very
fit and in good heart and should be able to follow up.
There are holes in his opposition. DIVERTIMENTI is
a 9 year old yet has to come up in distance and run
for only the second time in 60 days. ATHAAKEEL is
a 7 year old Mare who was well beaten only 3 days
ago. She lost by 8 lengths in a Class 7 race which
is real bargain basement stuff and she will need far
more to win this race bad as this is. I'd question the
fitness of 10yo CAPE OF STORMS without racing
much recently. There are obvious fitness doubts in
BLUE NOODLES and JOHNSON´S CAT's profiles.
There really isnt much here that should be able to
stop PUTIN winning this and I think he probably will.

Selection

£10 Win PUTIN 6/4


****************************************************
****************************************************