No Account Bet

M e s s a g e C o n t e n t


Two Sand and Plumpton over the jumps today.
I wasn't impressed with Kempton as the card's
not offering me much. I've done just 1 preview
which has turned out more open than expected
so I don't have much to say there. I've covered
a bit at Plumpton and found 3 Wolverhampton
races to preview. No Sires and Systems today.


M e s s a g e H i g h l i g h t s

I don't see an account bet today which is not
surprising. My problem with Wolverhampton
is that I don't get much practice here. I don't
have a chance to do the weekly Friday card
as Saturdays message gets in the way. I also
take a lot of Monday's off and this is another
day they race at Wolverhampton. I don't get
much practice here these days and with the
track riding uncomfortably slowly I feel cold
and distant from this track and cautious of it.

I am having two bets myself


Wolverhampton 12.55

YASIR 11/2 Each Way
CABUCHON 4/1 Saver Bet


Kempton 5.20

CORPORAL MADDOX 5/1 Each Way
JUBILEE BRIG 9/1 Saver Bet


It does seem scrappy stuff. I wont commit
to Wolves until I feel I have mastered the
track and I haven't done that this year yet.
Small bets following the message. I have
not got anything inspiring today but have
done as much as I can given its Monday
and given my confidence isn't at its peak.




S a t u r d a y 's R e v i e w

There was no Sunday message so just leaves
Saturday's to review. Overall 14 previews and
these finished P W W L L L W L L L W L L L.
Nine Losers and Place and four winners. That
seems an average message far from a flop but
far from an excellent one. Last Saturdays was
a high class message that contained no bet so
this one was spoilt by my main bet losing. The
worst part of my job was, is and will always be
losing Saturday bets. They can be intolerable
at times. When they lose I like to do messages
that are full of winners with useful angles so it
cushions the blow. I never wanted this service
to be all about the account bets. That makes a
lot of sense If you think about it. We all follow
patterns of good and poor form. If I am hitting
a bad run it doesn't mean you have to be too
and if the messages contains a lot of quality it
might be possible to compensate for the those
times my form is not good and yours is. Maybe
that is why I do long messages. When I am in
form then I might just be able to compensate
for all times that you are not. Idealistic maybe
but I liked to see it this way. This Saturday the
message fell down on the main bet which did
look well staked to me beforehand. It started
badly with GLOWINGINTHEDARK finishing 4th.
It looked uncompetitive and we managed to
get the main two dangers beaten but we ran
below form and two outsiders placed. It may
well be that he didn't stay 2m 5f but that's an
unproven theory. We needed POPPY BOND
to win and she came 5th. I shortlisted 3 with
the 1st, 2nd and 5th but I fancied her. I think
the reason she lost was that Wolverhampton
was riding very slow. The times confirm this
and the race was far slower than the winning
run she had last time out. I just think she got
lost as a 3yo filly on a cold Saturday evening
taking on males on a slow surface. Perhaps
My fault for not anticipating that but you can
not think of everything especially when there
are so many races on Saturdays. Spoilt what
would have otherwise been an average day.




P r o f i l e s & P r e v i e w s



Plumpton 12.40

I would have done the 12.40 Novice Hurdle if there
had been a negative for Electrolyser as an 8yo first
time out but I did find a similar winner (Colisay) so
I can't oppose him with confidence. Throw in many
hard to read horses and a well backed stablemate
and it is begging to look a bit too hard to sort out.



W o l v e r h a m p t o n 12.55

3/1 Cabuchon, 4/1 Evermore, 4/1 Full Speed
8/1 Yasir, 9/1 Natural High, 12/1 Herbalist
14/1 Walter De La Mare, 16/1 King Of Windsor
16/1 Rock Of Ages, 20/1 Compassion
20/1 Royal Trooper 20/1 What´s Up Doc.

* This is an Amateur Riders Handicap over 14f
* There are 15 similar races at this time of year
* I looked at horses with very few recent races
* Horses that had 20 + career starts needed several
* None managed to win with just 1 run in 3 months
* FULL SPEED - Not safe aged 8 with 1 run since July
* Well treated but that is very underraced for an 8yo
* KING OF WINDSOR only has 1 run since last May
* You couldn't trust his trainer to have him fit
* WHAT´S UP DOC is 12 with only 1 run since June
* WHAT´S UP DOC hasn't won in over 3 years
* I don't want him with 1 run in 62 days
* ROCK OF AGES has a poor draw in Stall 1
* He has plenty to prove after two dreadful runs
* COMPASSION is underraced this year as a mare
* She hasn't shown any form for over 2 years
* WALTER DE LA MARE hasn't won in years
* HERBALIST - Not that appealing as a profile
* Not aged 3 well beaten over hurdles
* Sold cheaply, short of runs this year and weak stable
* ROYAL TROOPER's form is generally regressive
* Worries me has just downgraded stables for only £1k
* NATURAL HIGH is a bit short of runs this year
* He has enough backclass to consider
* Thats balanced out by an inexperienced rider

Shortlist

* EVERMORE is hard to read as a 3yo filly
* None have won from just 7 that tried
* She's inexperienced for a race like this
* She is fit and running well which counts for plenty

* YASIR is a Godolphin hand me down
* Not a good sign he went for just £2k though
* Strong form claims. Fit and running well.

* CABUCHON - One of the strongest runners
* Has the ability but is hard to keep sound
* His form is good enough but inconsistent

Selection

YASIR 7/1 Win Bet

CABUCHON 4/1 Saver Bet





Plumpton 1.10

The 1.10 is a 3 runner Novice Handicap Chase and
not really suitable for my angles for several reasons
one being that Une Artiste is a Mare and not enough
5yo mares run in these races to have a view. I think
she's a Neutral and BUTHELEZI a mild positive so it
puts me off betting Une Artiste at odds on. Either of
them could win but Buthelezi is probably the value.





W o l v e r h a m p t o n 1.55

11/4 Kantara Castle, 11/4 Nice Arty, 7/2 Penara
4/1 The Wallace Line, 8/1 Maupiti Express
16/1 Techtycoon, 25/1 Worcharlie´slass
33/1 Kitty Brown.

* This is a 2yo claimer over 9f
* There are 33 similar races at this time of year
* Horses with under 3 career starts were 1-69
* WORCHARLIE´SLASS looks too inexperienced
* TECHTYCOON looks too inexperienced
* The 33 winners all ran within 84 days
* MAUPITI EXPRESS has been absent 164 days
* He is also inexperienced with 3 runs
* Horses with under 4 career starts were 4-86
* None of these won absent more than 46 days
* MAUPITI EXPRESS has that against her
* Horses with under 4 runs were 4-86
* I tried to break down this statistic
* Those that had 8st 10lbs or more were 0-34
* Mixing weight and inexperienced seems an issue
* KANTARA CASTLE has this problem
* He has just 3 runs and 9st 5lbs
* He fails that 0-34 statistic which is a worry
* KANTARA CASTLE has the best form in the race
* He looks the most talented on the numbers
* Much depends on of he can overcome inexperience
* Much depends on his stamina as well
* KANTARA CASTLE is by Baltic King who gets no stayers
* So far no 2yo sired by Baltic King has won past 7f yet
* All 12 racing over 8f and more were beaten
* KITTY BROWN is a filly from 7f
* Fillies doing this were 4-54
* Those beaten 4 + lengths last time were 1-41
* KITTY BROWN was beaten further than ideal last time
* NICE ARTY comes from a 9f handicap
* He was beaten 10 lengths in that race
* Male horses doing this were 2-21
* Both winners had 9 and 10 career starts
* NICE ARTY with 8 runs doesn't come out too badly
* He has twice flopped at this distance
* He has to prove he can stay this far
* No 2yo by Amadeus Wolf has won at 9f or more yet
* THE WALLACE LINE comes from an 8f Nursery
* Two winners did this neither a perfect match
* They had slightly shorter absences
* One had fewer runs the other more
* I wouldnt rule him out with a Neutral profile
* His Sire's hasn't had a 2yo winner beyond 1m 67 yards
* PENARA is a 3yo filly
* She comes from a selling race in the last fortnight
* There were 2 winners doing this both had 9 + runs
* PENARA only has 5 runs and is a bit short of runs
* She gets extra credit for a recent run
* She may find one or two dangers don't get home


Selection

PENARA 9/2

Each Way

This race is all about how well some of these stay
over a testing trip for 2 year olds. Its stamina that
steers me towards PENARA each way around 9/2






P l u m p t o n 1.40

2/1 Cannon Fodder, 5/2 Aimigayle
7/2 Tweedledrum, 11/2 Grace And Fortune
8/1 The Road Ahead.

This is a 3m 1f Mares Handicap Hurdle. Last years
race is the only race of it's kind at this time of year
which means we have no statistics. I did look at all
Mares handicaps over 3m or more which isn't ideal
but all we have are these 12 races. AIMIGAYLE is a
10yo and absent as long as 71 days and that might
be too long. None as old as him won with a break
and all the 12 winners had a much lighter hurdling
career so I am opposing AIMIGAYLE. The 2 winners
that came from Novice Hurdles were both younger
and lighter raced than GRACE AND FORTUNE and
there is another subplot here as her sire also has
THE ROAD AHEAD in this race and so far none by
this sire have won over this far yet. Other options
here look TWEEDLEDRUM and CANNON FODDER.
Because all 12 Mares Handicaps over 3m of more
went to horses with no more than 13 hurdle starts
I would see CANNON FODDER as the better bet of
the two. TWEEDLEDRUM does look a bit exposed.
THE ROAD AHEAD with several recent runs and a
well backed horse looks the sensible saver here.

CANNON FODDER 11/4 Win Bet

THE ROAD AHEAD 5/1 Saver






W o l v e r h a m p t o n 3.00

5/2 Spreadable, 3/1 Tyrsal, 5/1 Lord Lexington
7/1 Twenty Roses, 14/1 Royal Bushida, 14/1 Solent Lad
14/1 Trinity Lorraine, 16/1 Countess Lupus

* This is a 7f Nursery
* There are 48 similar races at this time of year
* TRINITY LORRAINE didn't do enough last time
* COUNTESS LUPUS is a filly absent 76 days
* Thats longer than all 17 winning fillies
* No filly with 5 or more runs won absent 6 + weeks
* COUNTESS LUPUS doesn't look safe
* LORD LEXINGTON comes from 10f
* None of the 48 winners managed that
* TWENTY ROSES is a filly from a 7f maiden
* Similar horses with 3 runs were 1-23
* That winner had a long absence
* Those that ran within a month like her were 0-17
* SOLENT LAD comes from a 7f handicap
* No horse won beaten as far as him last time
* ROYAL BUSHIDA - Profile very average
* I think he has the worst draw as well

Shortlist

* SPREADABLE comes from a 7f recent nursery
* I found fillies winning with his profile but no males
* The male winners had 7 and 11 career starts
* SPREADABLE with 4 runs doesn't match that
* I looked at Male horses with under 5 runs like him
* Those that came from 7f or shorter were 3-86
* Those 3 winners had longer absences
* Not a negative but not totally convincing

* TYRSAL won a recent 7f handicap
* 4 horses did that finished 3 3 W 3
* None had more than 8 runs and he has 12
* No horse has tried to win with TYRSAL's profile
* TYRSAL comes out as neutral but as good as any

Selection

TYRSA 7/2 +

Each Way




P l u m p t o n 3.10

2/1 Tarabela, 3/1 Beware Chalk Pit
7/2 Itoldyou, 5/1 Ballinhassig, 6/1 Sapphire Rouge.

* This is a Handicap Chase over 3m 2f
* November and December have 439 similar races
* Any good angles here could be vulnerable
* Thats because of a very small field

* TARABELA is a 10yo Mare absent 281 days
* Mares that raced first time out were 4-63
* Those aged 10 or more were 0-10
* Mares first time out with 11st 11lbs or more are 0-23
* TARABELA is 10 and has 11st 12lbs
* Thats a worry considering she is favourite
* Considering she has also downgraded stables
* No winners like her I am looking elsewhere
* ITOLDYOU comes from a novice handicap chase
* That was over 2m 4f and similar types were 1-18
* The one winner (Bobby Bullock) was different
* He had won just 3 days before
* ITOLDYOU doesn't have those credentials
* I wasn't impressed with his profile
* BALLINHASSIG is an 8yo debutant
* He's a Possible and not that bad statistically
* We just don't know if he will need the race
* Both his career wins came after several runs
* His seasonal debuts are poor so maybe he will
* It's not conclusive evidence so I can't rule him out
* His first time out record doesn't inspire me to risk him
* SAPPHIRE ROUGE is a 7yo with a recent hurdle runs
* Statistically such a strange profile she is a Neutral
* His 4 Chase runs include 3 Pulled Up and a big defeat
* The flimsy circumstantial evidence is against him
* Clever stable and I wouldnt rule him out
* BEWARE CHALK PIT won this last year
* He had a recent run last year but doesn't this year
* I can match him to a winner though

Selection

BEWARE CHALK PIT

These races are often smoke and mirrors. I decided
to oppose Tarabela and Itoldyou. I have Ballinhassig
and Sapphire Rouge as unconvincing possible. I feel
the safest selection is BEWARE CHALK PIT but a small
field is reason enough to expect the unexpected here.





K e m p t o n 5.20

7/2 Tasrih, 5/1 Corporal Maddox, 7/1 Jubilee Brig
10/1 Bowstar, 10/1 Light From Mars, 10/1 Nassau Storm
10/1 Secret Beau, 12/1 George Rooke, 12/1 My Kingdom
14/1 Liberty Jack, Perfect Mission, 20/1 Good Authority
20/1 Panther Patrol, 25/1 Red Art.

* This is a 7f handicap for 0-85 rated horses
* TASRIH is 4 and drops from 8f with just 4 career runs
* All 4 year olds with under 5 starts were 2-52
* None of these came from 8f or more
* Horses from 8f races with under 7 runs were 1-37
* None were as inexperienced as TASRIH
* He wouldn't be my first choice
* GOOD AUTHORITY is out with 1 run since July
* RED ART not for me having downgraded stables
* PERFECT MISSION - His absence doesn't help
* LIGHT FROM MARS is 8 and comes from 6f
* Horses that age up in distance were 4-88
* One did come from a claimer as he does
* He did have a much more recent run though
* Not a negative but I didn't like him enough
* GEORGE ROOKE wouldn't be first choice
* Not from a 3yo handicap and drawn widest of all
* SECRET BEAU - Horses with is profile were 1-49
* 1 similar winner but his type are just average
* A few too many runs for a 3yo for comfort
* MY KINGDOM - I needed a more recent run
* LIBERTY JACK is a 3yo with an absence
* Hard to read the similar 3yo winners were different
* They either had fewer runs or far more
* Not a negative but he isn't like any winners
* PANTHER PATROL is a 3yo from 6f
* Horses with this profile absent a month were fine
* I looked at those like him male with 10-12 runs
* There was a 1-25 record
* BOWSTAR has shown signs of improvement lately
* That gets her respect but she's not first choice
* Not as a 4yo filly on a slow track in a big field

Shortlist


* NASSAU STORM - No statistical reason why he can't win
* His 40 day break pushes me towards two others

* CORPORAL MADDOX is the class horse of the race
* I like his recent run in a better class race
* All his recent wins come with a break of under 2 weeks
* He is fit running well and no surprise if he wins

* JUBILEE BRIG is 3 and comes from a 7f handicap
* I looked at similar 3 year old Males
* Those beaten last time but not by more than 6 lengths
* Those running 10-20 days ago with 9-12 career starts
* I found a 4-22 record with these horses
* JUBILEE BRIG has a promising profile
* My only fear is the 4 winners had more runs that year
* He's only had 4 runs in 2013

Selection

This is a bit warmer than I first thought. I dont like the
favourite but have 3 on the shortlist and there will be
a possibilty if choosing wrong. CORPORAL MADDOX
looked the solid each way bet to me.

Selection

CORPORAL MADDOX 5/1

Each Way



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