No Full Bet today
No Top of the Message Bet
5 Previews



I n s i d e T o d a y 's M e s s a g e

I commited to a Sunday message a few days and
knew there was no Flat racing. This is as good as
I could hope for given it is a hideous days racing.
It's a European Message Today in three countries.


France - Preview of the French Derby

England - One Preview at Southwell

Ireland - 3 previews at Listowel


The National Hunt racing today in England looks
horrible. It's laughable really that poeple will be
betting on this. I much prefer France and Ireland
today. I have done one English race today but It
is not easy and it doesnt interest me too much.


I've never done much at Listowel before but to
my great surprise there are a lot of interesting
issues there today and it's my favourite part of
the message. No chance of a bet anywhere on
horses we have no knowledge about but what
has surprised me and pleased me today is the
issues the message raises. No certainty that it
will produce any winners and we should treat
today as little more than a Gentle Play around
at a place we know nothing about there are a
few really interesting things to consider today.



Today's Options

Nothing too serious but I will be fascinated to
see if my Listowel 4.10 preview works out. I'm
questioning the Las Encinas's draw and profile
and Blistering Dancer's stamina and pedigree.
This leads me to INDY GAL 7/2. I'd have liked
an each way bet but thats optional. I haven't
looked at this track before and it is abroad so
I am hopefully cautious the message performs
but I cant get too serious about it all today.


Listowel 4.10

INDY GAL 7/2

Win Bet at 7/2

or

Each Way if 4/1 + and 8 + runners





S a t u r d a y 's R e v i e w

A very rare slimline Saturday yesterday with only
four previews. Nothing back from those races and
that was dissapointing. There were winners and a
few good negatives in a few other snippets I gave
which leaves me wondering if it was a mistake to
keep it short as it certainly felt we opted out of lots
of it. We had the second in the Epsom Dash a 3yo
who ran an amazing race. Ran with great credit it
may have been the staking at fault there. A Harsh
Derby result as BATTLE OF MARENGO lost a place
in the last stride and I would never predicted that
a furlong or so out. That just left the main bet and
a loser as AMAZING BLUE SKY was well beaten in
9th and the Saver was frustratingly second and he
almost rescued the bet. It felt AMAZING BLUE SKY
went off far too quickly. I always felt they had set
too fast a pace and no surprise that all the leaders
fell away and the hold up horses won. That said I
doubt think he'd have won with better fractions as
there were some decent younger finishers and it
did feel to me a mistake to bet him after the race.

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P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S



L i s t o w e l 2.40

11/10 Cocktail Hour, 7/4 Lady Giselle
7/2 Inate Value, 12/1 Swordfishtrombones
20/1 Tempo Mac, 25/1 Rock Of Dunamase.

This is a 3yo maiden over a mile run on heavy ground.
Both COCKTAIL HOUR and LADY GISELLE have plenty
of experience despite a few flaws and I would think it
is more likely given the conditions that one of these do
win. Decided against the unraced INATE VALUE and if
he wins then so be it. The key issue for me here must
be stamina as LADY GISELLE is sire by Indian Haven,

* LADY GISELLE was beaten 16 lengths over 9.5f last time
* I dont believe She stayed that far
* I looked at his Sire's record on Soft and Heavy ground
* Indian Haven has had winners on soft or heavy
* None won at anywhere near 9.5f
* LADY GISELLE didnt look like he stayed 9.5f last time
* Today She races over a much shorter Mile
* LADY GISELLE twice placed as a 2yo over 7f on heavy
* This is only a furlong further so I feel she should get it
* This is a Sharp Track in a very small field which will help
* Last time she met two horses that were different class
* She didnt stay 9.5f on a track with an unhill finish
* COCKTAIL HOUR looks frustrating
* She has been tried in all sorts of headgear
* She can win if LADY GISELLE doesnt stay this far
* 4 runs as a 3yo and she hasnt proven she has trained on
* Given the prices I'd give LADY GISELLE one more chance

Selection

LADY GISELLE 7/4






Listowel 3.10

* There is a Draw Statistic over a Mile here
* Listowel has 21 handicaps over a Mile
* Thats 21 Handicaps with 8 + runners since 2007
* The 21 winners had the following draws
* 4 11 16 6 9 11 15 4 6 4 15 4 6 5 8 9 6 6 6 7 11
* Horses drawn 1-2-3 have a 0-59 record in these races
* This does not help too much in the 3.10 race
* It may help later on in the card





C h a n t i l l y 3.15

Prix du Jockey Club (Group 1)
(3yo Colts & Fillies) (Turf) (3yo) 1m2f110

Intello (9/4), Bravodino (8), Sky Hunter (8), Morandi (9)
Dalwari (10), Dastarhon (10), Loch Garman (10)
Shikarpour (16), Mshawish (20), First Cornerstone (25)
Willie The Whipper (33), Superplex (40), Ares DEmra (50)
Lion DAnvers (50), Beyond Thankful (66), Glacial Age (66)
Max Dynamite (66), Haya Kan (200), Milano Blues (200)

* The Prix du Jockey Club is the French Derby over 10f
* Some way out of my comfort zone here though
* I've looked at the Draw Bias and its horrible
* Littered with low and high winners I see no bias
* That said I did find this draw statistic
* Every Chantilly race with 12 or more runners
* Thats any kind of race any any distance since 2005
* Horses drawn 1 or in the lowest stall were 0-44
* MSHAWISH - Not keen on his draw in Stall 1

* 15 of the last 16 winners had 3 or more career starts
* SHIKARPOUR only has 1 previous run
* No recent winner was so inexperienced
* Look at the Number of runs each winner had that year
* During the season they won they had the following runs
* 4 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 3 2 3 3 2 2 3
* The last horse to win with 1 run that year was 1997
* LOCH GARMAN - Disdvantaged with 1 run this season
* WILLIE THE WHIPPER is out with 1 run this year
* FIRST CORNERSTONE is out for similar reasons

* Three horses come from the French Guineas
* DASTARHON came out best of these
* I dont think that will happen again in this race
* DASTARHON was 50/1 that day in a muddling race


* DALWARI may need further but is still respected
* He just hasn't achieved enough yet for me
* Maybe later in the year but I see enough

* BRAVODINO - Hasn't done too much wrong
* That said he has ran 3 times and been beaten twice
* There are only a few winners with 3 runs
* Those that did in the past tended to have a W W W record
* We know 9 of the last 10 winners had 4 or more runs
* He could go well but he isn't for me

* SKY HUNTER hasn't been tested in the best races
* Others have achieved a lot more than he has
* Also bothers me he is down in distance as well
* Three runs is fine but 9 of the last 10 had 4 or more
* That just puts me off SKY HUNTER

Shortlist

* MORANDI was France's Champion 2yo in 2012
* That worries me as he had 6 runs as a juvenile
* Most past winners had lighter 2yo seasons
* Last years winner was well raced as a 2yo
* He was a 25/1 outsider in a muddling and rough race
* Run last years race again and you'd get a different result
* MORANDI has been beaten twice now as a 3yo
* Perhaps something will improve past him
* I think he could play a role here
* Perhaps a saver or a place bet
* That may appeal if you think the favourite is short

* INTELLO - Obvious chance and safe profile
* He probably should be unbeaten now after 4 runs
* The only worry is 19 runners and a short price
* I would make sure I couldn't lose if he wins
* Unoriginal selection but he does offer more than most

Selection

I have decided to play this as a split stake bet

INTELLO 2/1 Win Bet

MORANDI 7/4 Place Bet






Listowel 3.40

7/4 Lucky Kitten, 5/1 Daigreen, 11/2 Eighteen Summers
11/2 Jackemil, 6/1 Jpevie, 8/1 Edenshaw, 8/1 Morethanafeeling 10/1 Empresario, 20/1 Wholelotofrosie.

* I mentioned in the 3.10pm a Draw Statistic
* Listowel has 21 handicaps over a Mile
* Thats 21 Handicaps with 8 + runners since 2007
* The 21 winners had the following draws
* 4 11 16 6 9 11 15 4 6 4 15 4 6 5 8 9 6 6 6 7 11
* Horses drawn 1-2-3 have a 0-59 record in these races

This is clearly not a big field so you wouldnt trust that stat but first time out I'd avoid JPEVIE drawn one. I think there is a case against EIGHTEEN SUMMERS. He handles softer ground but his sire hasn't had a winner yet on soft of heavy and he has a weak draw and hasn't raced in a long time. I would avoid EMPRESARIO hammered over 4f further just 7 days ago. WHOLELOTOFROSIE was also beaten too far the other day. EDENSHAW looks unsafe as a seasonal debutant
who's last run was over 5f and he is no certainty to stay 8f. I dont really want LUCKY KITTEN as he only won against
year olds last time and that was over a month ago and he
has taken a heavy rise in weight. I will shortlist 3 horses

JACKEMIL - MORETHANAFEELING- DAIGREEN

The first pair are females down in distance so I will take
a guess on DAIGREEN and also have a saver as well

Selection

DAIGREEN 5/1 Win Bet
MORETHANAFEELING 5/1 Saver






L i s t o w e l 4.10

5/2 Las Encinas, 100/30 Blistering Dancer
7/2 Indy Gal, 11/2 Fiftyshadesofred, 10/1 Mouth Piece
12/1 Shutter Island, 16/1 Brady´s Hill, 20/1 Tiffs Diamond.

This is another Mile handicap. I have refered to the draw
here that show Stalls 1-2-3 struggle with 8 or more runners. There are only 8 runners here and some could pull out so I have my doubts about the draw stats but it will be quite interesting to see if LAS ENCINAS can defy stall one. She is surely not a horse to bet though. Not just because of a bad draw but She ran over 12f last time and this is quite a radical step down in distance for a filly. LAS ENCINAS doesnt interest me. Neither does SHUTTER ISLAND either as he comes down 5f in distance from a 13f race which is concerning. BLISTERING DANCER also looks a bit shaky.

* BLISTERING DANCER is sired by Moss Vale a sprinter
* Moss Vale has sired 47 winners so far
* Manly over 5f 6f and 7f
* He has sired 1 winner over a Mile on the All Weather
* I looked at the sires record over 7.5f or more
* There was a weak 1-59 record
* BLISTERING DANCER is far from certain to stay 8f on heavy

I didnt want MOUTH PIECE as a 3yo well beaten last time
over 7f against his own age group and hardly beating an
opponent in most of his runs. BRADY´S HILL hasnt shown
much either as a 3yo up in distance. FIFTYSHADESOFRED
is a 3yo filly absent 233 days. I'm in no hurry to bet her as a cheap horse. This only leaves INDY GAL as the choice

Selection

INDY GAL is drawn 2 and technically fails my draw stats
but I'm not bothered in a small field especially as many
of these have some really tough things to do. He is well
raced this year and at least ran well in a better race on
his last start. Only a guess but I like INDY GAL at 7/2

Selection

INDY GAL 7/2






S o u t h w e l l 5.15

11/4 Up For An Oscar, 9/2 Fortuna Rose, 7/1 Rich Buddy
8/1 Andhaar, 8/1 Blackwell Synergy, 8/1 The Potting Shed
10/1 The Shy Man, 12/1 Father Shine, 14/1 Royal Deal
16/1 Frontier Dancer.

* This is a Handicap Hurdle over 3 Miles
* There are 233 similar races in May and June
* UP FOR AN OSCAR comes from a Maiden Hurdle
* I looked at the 233 races for horses like this
* Horses from Novice or Maiden Hurdles
* No form in Listed or Graded Class before
* Running in the past 3 months
* I found a 4-200 record with these horses
* That struck me as a poor record
* Those that had under 13 career starts were 2-122
* To be fair one of them won here (Sapphire Rouge 2011)
* Thats still a very dissapointing record and she was a mare
* Both winners came from Novice Hurdles
* Neither of these came from a Maiden Hurdle
* UP FOR AN OSCAR comes from a maiden hurdle
* I think we should oppose him with a more solid choice

* THE POTTING SHED comes from a Novice Hurdle
* He hasnt raced in 137 days
* I looked at horses with similar profiles
* I found a 1-39 record with these horses
* That winner was Maolisa at Perth in 2002
* She was a mare and had 14 previous National Hunt runs
* She also came from a Maiden Hurdle as well
* THE POTTING SHED has only had 3 runs
* With that 1-39 record I wasnt convinced he was safe enough

* FORTUNA ROSE is a mare absent 171 days
* I did a direct search for mares absent 80 days
* There was a 0-32 record with these types
* I dont see a strong enough case for her
* FRONTIER DANCER has two poor recent runs
* He looks unsafe and I dont see why he should win
* THE SHY MAN is 10 and absent 536 days
* No exposed horse his age won absent so long
* ROYAL DEAL makes no appeal on current form
* His Sire has never had a National Hunt winner before
* Every chance ROYAL DEAL wont get home here
* FATHER SHINE has a weak profile
* Very few horses his age won from handicap chases
* None that came up in distance did it
* FATHER SHINE doesnt offer enough

Shortlist

* BLACKWELL SYNERGY is from a Novice Handicap Chase
* Some horses won with reasonably similar profiles
* None were the same and I found him hard to read
* I don't know what to expect so he's a neutral

* RICH BUDDY has one of the best all round profiles
* Experienced enough but lightly raced enough to improve
* I only have one problem with him the sharp track
* All his best form is on different tracks
* Thats the sort of problem that could kill an each way bet
* RICH BUDDY and ANDHAAR are stablemates

* ANDHAAR has enough positives to shortlist
* He has plenty of weight but has earnt that
* There is a case that ANDHAAR may not stay 3m
* I looked at his Sires (Bahri) National Hunt record
* Those running at 3m or more were just 1-42
* The longest distance winner he had was 3m
* That was Maraafeq in a small field Chase on good ground
* The grounds right and he should go well on a tight track
* Not entirely convinced but he does look a big price

Selection

ANDHAAR 9/1 Win Bet

RICH BUDDY 8/1 Saver Bet

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