No Full Bet today

1 Top of the Message Bet

9 Races Discussed



Todays Bet


Yarmouth 4.55


STAR LAHIB 2/1 Win Bet

HEYWORTH 6/1 Saver Bet




I n s i d e T o d a y 's M e s s a g e

When doing each message I always get the same
2 recurring dilemmas. I want to do so much more
as there's so much more out there to say but also
feel I can not finish the message in time and will
never resolve these problems. Today 9 previews
and I have gone with one bet in a tiny little field.


Two Options

Nottingham 3.00

AMBITIOUS ICARUS 8/1 Win Bet

KEY AMBITION 5/1 Saver Bet
REGINALD CLAUDE 9/1 Saver Bet



Yarmouth 4.55

STAR LAHIB 2/1 Win Bet

HEYWORTH 6/1 Saver Bet






Nottingham 3.00

AMBITIOUS ICARUS 8/1 Win Bet
KEY AMBITION 5/1 Saver Bet
REGINALD CLAUDE 9/1 Saver Bet


As I knew I would be I was drawn to the 2 divisions
of that Nottingham 6f handicap at 2.30pm and 3pm.
I am not so bothered about the first division where
I would have been keener on Quality Art 16/1 were
it not for his draw. I like the 3pm race but it is very
annoying I can not reduce 3 horses to 2 and hoped
that one of these would not run. Strong angles here
but a messy stakig plan. I like AMBITIOUS ICARUS
as he ran yesterday. The Racing Post say he has no
excuse for yesterdays run. My argument would be
he doesn't need one. Worth a bet but have 2 saver
bets. If Staking £10 I would have £2 Savers on both
REGINALD CLAUDE and KEY AMBITION and have a
bigger £6 stake on AMBITIOUS ICARUS to win this.
Needless to say its messy so I go with the other bet.


Yarmouth 4.55

STAR LAHIB 2/1 Win Bet
HEYWORTH 6/1 Saver Bet

There may be some that think 2/1 is a bit short to
be having a saver at 6/1 and maybe it is but there
are only 4 runners here. One of these is just a 25/1
outsider. By betting STAR LAHIB and HEYWORTH
we may only have to beat the favourite Songbird.

This favourite is trained now by Lady Jane Cecil
and nobody would begrudge her a winner after
Henry Cecil sadly died. Its very likely though that
Songbird will be overbet because of this and we
have to remain detached and something bothers
me about Songbird. She is trying to do something
that no filly her age has done before. Because she
is odds on I think we have to oppose her. Staking
enough on HEYWORTH to break level - Lets argue
we place £1.50 on her for every £10 Staked- it will
mean that we will be getting 6/4 STAR LAHIB and
our money back if Heyworth wins. The only way
we can therefore lose is if there is a 25/1 shock
or Songbird does something no filly has managed.

Dont be surprised if Songbird wins because much
as she has a weak profile there are only 4 runners
in the race and small fields can beat any statistics
if one horse doesn't perform. I still feel we should
get on STAR LAHIB and the saver against a once
raced filly and I am making this todays bet.



W e d n e s d a y 's R e v i e w

One of the three options won yesterday and as that
was the best price I am pleased with that comeback
message. Not sure what happened to MUJARRAD as
he looked the winner and ended up unplacing. That
wasn't a good start. Perhaps he went off too quickly
but I think his pedigree screams All weather. It was
great to see BAIN´S PASS win. That track is horrible
to read but I chose the right one even if that did not
come solely from a statistical angle and had a little
bit of form in the bet. The last bet failed. I said that
I would have been on the winner in the staking had
the jockey not been having his first ever ride and it
was therefore typical he went and won. Dilemma's
like this happen all the time and you'll never make
all the decisions right but at least the winner had a
positive profile. A strong solid comeback message.

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P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S



N e w b u r y 1.50

13/8 Toast Of The Town, 9/2 Muthmera
15/2 Bohemian Dance, 9/1 Pearl Street, 10/1 Phaenomena
11/1 Alnawiyah, 14/1 Bonanza Creek, 14/1 Kenny´s Girl
16/1 Lady Montjeu, 20/1 Calling, 20/1 Rosaceous
25/1 A Good Year, 25/1 Vega Dance, 50/1 Happy Families.

* This is a 3yo fillies maiden over 10f
* TOAST OF THE TOWN is safer than MUTHMERA
* She has an extra race this season
* I looked at horses like MUTHMERA
* Those with 1 run this year from a maiden
* There were 5 winners that won with this profile
* These had 1 1 1 1 2 career starts
* MUTHMERA has 3 runs and doesnt match that fit
* I wanted another run this season after 3 previous runs
* TOAST OF THE TOWN with 2 runs both this year is safer
* ALNAWIYAH is also unsafe from a 32yo maiden
* There were 5 winners coming from 2yo maidens
* These all had just the one previous race
* ALNAWIYAH has 3 races
* Horses doing this with 2 or more previous runs are 0-20
* BONANZA CREEK is unraced and well backed
* I can resist a Cumain blinkered first time debutant
* BOHEMIAN DANCE- Not ruled out but unimpressive
* PHAENOMENA has a weak profile
* PEARL STREET also comes from a 2yo maiden
* With 1 run she is statistically fine
* Hard to know how fit or ready she is
* PEARL STREET could be a horse to save on win or place

Shortlist

PEARL STREET 8/1
TOAST OF THE TOWN 11/8

Selection

TOAST OF THE TOWN 11/10

Win Bet





N o t t i n g h a m 2.30

6/1 Divertimenti, 7/1 Errigal Lad, 8/1 Compton Albion
8/1 Depden, 10/1 Jubilant Queen, 10/1 Quality Art
12/1 Code Six, 12/1 Mr Snooks, 12/1 New Decade
14/1 Aaranyow, 14/1 Graylyn Valentino, 16/1 Aussie Blue
16/1 Cristaliyev, 16/1 Ursus, 20/1 The Bendy Fella
25/1 Hamis Al Bin, 33/1 Sairaam.

* This is a 6f handicap for 0-65 rated horses
* Nottingham has 21 renewals of this race
* This race and the 3pm are the same race
* There are some strong angles in this race
* I would want to be passing almost all of these
* There are 7 statistics valid in both races
* I predict the winner will pass at least 6 of these
* 20 of the 21 winners ran within 23 days (Other 42 days)
* 20 of the 21 winners had at least 7 career starts
* Horses aged 8 or more were 0-27 in this race
* 13 of the last 14 winners had at least 3 runs that year
* Avoid horses with past form in Class 2 or higher
* Horses beaten 10 + Lengths last time out were 0-122
* All 21 winners came from a Handicap

Shortlist

* DIVERTIMENTI scrapes in but fails the age statictic
* AARANYOW scrapes in but profile is quite average
* CODE SIX is shortlisted but comes from a 5f race
* The last 12 winners came from 5.5f or longer
* Only 2 winners came from 5f handicaps
* These 2 were exposed aged 5 + and ran within 2 weeks
* QUALITY ART has that profile
* QUALITY ART looks the best profile to me
* My biggest problem is he is drawn in Stall One
* That is a real problem that kills some interest in him

Selection

QUALITY ART 12/1 Win Bet

CODE SIX 11/2 Win Bet







Yarmouth 2.40

* This is a classified race for 3 year olds
* I was looking to oppose once raced DRAHEM
* My ideal alternative does not exist
* I wanted a few runs this year and a recent run
* My choices are once raced or seasonal debutants
* Nothing is solid enough to give me confidence
* I would have opposed this favourite each way
* POSH BOY - ZHUBA are obvious options
* I wouldnt rule out a shock from THE SCUTTLER
* No Selection



N o t t i n g h a m 3.00

9/2 Deepest Blue, 8/1 Key Ambition, 8/1 My Time
10/1 Ambitious Icarus, 12/1 Colourbearer, 12/1 Copper Leyf
12/1 Fidget, 12/1 Reginald Claude, 12/1 Solarmaite
14/1 Bermondsey Bob, 14/1 Therapeutic, 14/1 Whipphound
16/1 Prince Of Passion, 16/1 Ridgeway Sapphire
16/1 We Are City, 20/1 Bobbyow, 33/1 Niceonemyson.

* This is a 6f handicap for 0-64 rated horses
* Nottingham has 21 renewals of this race
* The Same Statistics for the 2.30pm race apply
* There are 7 statistics valid in both races
* I predict the winner will pass at least 6 of these


* 20 of the 21 winners ran within 23 days (Other 42 days)
* 20 of the 21 winners had at least 7 career starts
* Horses aged 8 or more were 0-27 in this race
* 13 of the last 14 winners had at least 3 runs that year
* Avoid horses with past form in Class 2 or higher
* Horses beaten 10 + Lengths last time out were 0-122
* All 21 winners came from a Handicap

Considerations

* DEEPEST BLUE is a 3 year old
* Horses aged 3 are 1-37 in this race
* The only winner was a filly and he is not
* I wanted a stronger profile than that
* SOLARMAITE is just a bit too risky
* She's a filly who unseated her rider last time at the start
* Ignore that and she only comes from a maiden
* I wanted a safer profile


Shortlist

* REGINALD CLAUDE - One of the more likely winners

* AMBITIOUS ICARUS - Huge chance running yesterday
* Statistically his problem is a lack of backclass

* KEY AMBITION - Lots to like and almost perfect
* If he had 2 + career wins and a run within 7 days
* Then he would have an outstanding profile
* He has 1 career win and a run 15 days ago

Selection

Win Bet with 2 Savers

AMBITIOUS ICARUS 8/1 Win Bet

KEY AMBITION 5/1 Saver Bet
REGINALD CLAUDE 9/1 Saver Bet

Staking £10 I would play it this way

£6 Win AMBITIOUS ICARUS
£2 KEY AMBITION
£2 REGINALD CLAUDE



N e w b u r y 3.25

This Listed race for fillies is complicated and a lack
of similar races make it hard to assess certain horses
like MUSIC CHART with an absence and LADY NOUF
with few runs. HEADING NORTH comes from a solid
trial race and could outrun her odds and she's be a
horse to potentially consider each way or perhaps
as a place bet in a split stake but I couldn't commit
to the race given the lack of available evidence. It
is only a guess but mine is HEADING NORTH E-Way.




N e w b u r y 4.00

11/4 Pleasure Bent, 7/1 Tilstarr, 8/1 Red Dragon
9/1 Breccbennach, 10/1 Emulating, 10/1 Red To Amber
11/1 Seaside Rock, 14/1 Saint Jerome, 14/1 Substantivo
14/1 Testa Rossa, 16/1 Banreenahreenkah
16/1 Downhill Dancer, 16/1 Mojo Bear, 25/1 Mandy´s Boy
33/1 Haatefina.

This is an 8f 3yo Handicap. I have 2 statistics that sort of
count against each other. Favourite PLEASURE BENT is
weak for me and opposable but the problem is that she
has two market rivals and they fail Draw statistics which
means that if the Draw Statistic is right then it gives far
more chance to PLEASURE BENT than we would like.

* Starting with PLEASURE BENT who has 2 runs
* I looked at all similar races
* Horses with Under 3 runs had a miserable 1-39 record
* The only winner was Laa Rayb at Sandown in 2007
* Laa Rayb had 2 runs that season and was different
* Statistically I should oppose PLEASURE BENT
* That said I have found winners like him at other distances
* PLEASURE BENT though wouldnt interest me enough

* However EMULATING is drawn 1 and TILSTARR drawn 2
* Newbury have 20 handicaps since 2007 with 10+ runners
* Horses drawn 1-2-3 have a 0-55 record in these 20 races
* EMULATING and TILSTARR are also avoided

* SEASIDE ROCK is a seasonal debutant
* Most seasonal debutants came from maidens with 3 runs
* SEASIDE ROCK comes from a Nursery with 5 runs
* That makes SEASIDE ROCK very unsafe
* Only 1 winner did it in and that was a filly (Humdrum)
* She was from the same stable as SEASIDE ROCK
* The link is not good enough and he isnt for me

* I feel I should oppose these 3 horses at the head of the betting
* Finding the right alternative looks fiendishly hard
* BRECCBENNACH is a positive but not my choice
* Not from Topweight with limited backclass
* BANREENAHREENKAH is a positive but again not for me
* I dont want any horse with 1 run this season if I can help it
* SUBSTANTIVO is also out with 1 run this year
* MANDY´S BOY doesnt appeal froma conditions race
* RED TO AMBER is out for similar reasons

Selection

I have had to make some huge assumptions to get this far
and not sure how safe I am here. I'm shortlisting 2 horses.


SAINT JEROME 8/1 Each Way

RED DRAGON 14/1 Saver Bet





N e w b u r y 4.30

3/1 Thakana, 5/1 Entwined, 5/1 Millers Wharf
11/2 Swift Cedar, 13/2 Gracious George, 10/1 Admirable Art
11/1 Mystical Moment, 12/1 Jullundar, 12/1 Secret Rebel
16/1 Sinaadi.

* This is a 3yo handicap over 7f
* Newbury has 16 renewals of this race
* Most recent winners of this race had 3-8 runs
* 15 of the 16 Newbury winners ran within a Month
* 15 of the 16 winners came from 7f or 8f
* Horses from 6f or shorter and only 1-67 in this race
* SWIFT CEDAR has a 50 day absence
* None like him won this race and his overall profiles weak
* JULLUNDAR also lacks a recent race
* I couldnt bet him anyway from a 12f race
* We know horses from 6f are 1-67 in this race
* I looked at all similar races for horses from 6f
* They really struggled with just 1 run this season
* SECRET REBEL fails this and looks unattractive
* GRACIOUS GEORGE also comes from 6f with 1 run this year
* I wasnt keen enough on that profile so he is rejected
* THAKANA is a filly from a 7f maiden
* I looked at similar fillies with 1-2 runs this season
* There was an unimpressive 2-81 record
* The two winners doing this had 2 and 3 career starts
* THAKANA has now had 5 runs
* THAKANA would be better with more runs this season
* SINAADI is another filly from a maiden
* She didn't run well enough last time

Shortlist

* ADMIRABLE ART has 3 runs 2 were this year
* Not a negative but much we can not know

* MYSTICAL MOMENT - I can not rule him out
* Yough task with topweight but he has a chance

* MILLERS WHARF comes from a conditions race
* I looked at similar horses from these races over 8f
* Those with 9 or more runs like him won 2 races
* Only 1 of these had under 5 runs that year like him
* MILLERS WHARF is reasonably similar to 1 winner
* That horse had won twice already and he hasn't
* MILLERS WHARF is a modest positive

* ENTWINED is a filly from a 7f handicap
* She has 6 runs and 2 this season
* I looked at similar fillies absent over 2 + weeks
* I found 1 winner like her and she's shortlistable

Selection

ENTWINED 7/1 Win Bet
ADMIRABLE ART 12/1 Win Bet




Y a r m o u t h 4.55

6/4 Songbird, 9/4 Star Lahib,
11/2 Hepworth, 8/1 Dazzling Valentine.

This is a Fillies Handicap short of 12f. Some complicated
statistics here. Not time effective to go into details but I'd
be making the following observations about this race.

* SONGBIRD - I would oppose her with just 1 career start
* With just 4 runners anything can happen
* I think she has a poor profile though
* I looked at every fillies handicap over 10f or more
* Thats any time of year Grass or Sand in Any Class
* I looked at 4 year olds coming from Maidens

* There were 20 winners that had this profile
* The 20 winners had the following runs
* 8 9 12 5 26 8 2 8 9 3 4 13 5 5 3 3 3 4 9 3
* Those that raced that season had these runs
* 26 3 3 8 8 4 12 3 13 4 9 5 9 3 5
* SONGBIRD - Not for me with just 1 run

* DAZZLING VALENTINE didnt offer me enough
* Not exposed on career high mark and all wins in lower grade

* STAR LAHIB looks safer to me
* HEPWORTH was an option but one thing put me off
* She has raced just once in 136 days
* I think she could be worth a saver



N e w b u r y 5.05

4/1 Just Darcy, 6/1 Aficionado, 7/1 Debdebdeb
7/1 Kastini, 8/1 Flamingo Beat, 9/1 Ivanhoe
9/1 Mallory Heights, 12/1 Janie Runaway, 12/1 Nullarbor Sky
12/1 Pivotal Silence, 14/1 Mad About Harry, 20/1 Sunblazer
25/1 Crystal Mist, 33/1 Marvelino, 33/1 See And Be Seen
66/1 Terpsichore.

* This is a 3yo handicap over 12f
* Too difficult given so little time to do much here
* JUST DARCY - I wanted at least 1 more run
* AFICIONADO - I wanted at least 1 more run
* MALLORY HEIGHTS - Good profile but Stall 1 puts me off
* NULLARBOR SKY is a positive
* DEBDEBDEB is also a positive
* Best guess would be DEBDEBDEB each way
* I dont know enough about the race to get involved

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