No Bet Today


I n s i d e T o d a y 's M e s s a g e


Today is the shortest message for several weeks.
I warned of a short one yesterday. I have had lots
of outside commitments that have built up and a
jobs that haven't got done that I spent some time
yesterday clearing all this up thinking the hideous
weather was the time to get straight and sorted.


No Bet Today


* My only preview is the Kempton 4.15

* I have gone for QUERIDO as a win bet at 9/2


Lingfield has had a lot of coverage in the last few
weeks but today I am going to ignore the card as
it doesn't come up to scratch. There are Maiden
races you have to guess in and many small field
contests that undermine angles so leaving I'm it.

Newbury has passed the inspection but not too
much I can do here. The first 2 favourites are for
all intents and purposes unraced over hurdles in
this country and both are unreadable. There is a
tempting Novice Hurdle at 1.55pm with 3 horses
dominating the message. Statistically all seem
acceptable but UXIZANDRE came out a slightly
better profile and he'd be the slight preference.
I dont have a good profile in the mares race so
ignoring that. I wouldn't oppose the favourite in
the bumper or the Hunter Chase. Overall not a
friendly card and nothing much to work with.


K e m p t o n

My only preview is the 4.15pm a race I have a
good record in. There are a couple of little bits
after that but it is really a one race day today.


Should be back to normal tomorrow. Sorry it
has been a slow start to the week but I plan
to do the Sunday message as well this week
but I have had to sacrifice some time to finish
some outside commitments I'd put off.



T u e s d a y 's R e v i e w

It was a fend for yourself message yesterday one
I didn't start till quite late and rushed through I was
no sure what I had. In the end 8 previews returned
three decent priced winners and a place so overall
it performed above expectations which does help.

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P R O F I L E S @ P R E V I E W S


K e m p t o n 4.15


9/4 Delightful Sleep, 6/1 Crucis Abbey, 6/1 West Side
8/1 Querido, 10/1 Boris The Bold, 10/1 Northern Spy
12/1 Carpentras, 14/1 Catawollow, 20/1 Commercial
20/1 Meydan Style, 20/1 Sun Dream
33/1 Prophet In A Dream, 33/1 Rainbow Riches.

This is a Mile handicap but with 0-50 rated horses
the quality is desperate. I am drawn to the race as
the last 2 winners at 8/1 and 9/2 I managed to tip
so I have a record to be pleased with. I just looked
at a few profiles. DELIGHTFUL SLEEP does have
problems as no 5yo won from a maiden. He found
improvement last timeout but he has still failed to
place in any of his six runs so far and he has not
acheived much and the handicapper has awarded
him a 6lbs rise in the weights for finishing only in
4th place. DELIGHTFUL SLEEP also comes down
from a 10f maiden. All horses that raced in maiden
races down in distance from 9f or more were 1-59.
Thats a poor record with the only winner as 3yo so
if he wins he is not like any similar winners found.
I can't bet a mare like CARPENTRAS hammered
last time. I've fitness issues with COMMERCIAL
RAINBOW RICHES, PROPHET IN A DREAM and
also SUN DREAM. None of these 4 look likely to
be at the peak of their fitness. CATAWOLLOW is
not offering anything at the moment. I would avoid
MEYDAN STYLE a 7 year old who has never yet
graduated out of Class 5 before.

Possibles

* WEST SIDE - Just about shortlistable
* Showed a bit of promise last time but there are issues
* He hasn't won before and Stall 1 isnt ideal
* I think that draw is a slight negative
* CRUCIS ABBEY - His profile is shortlistable
* Thats despite a 0-24 career record
* You would worry about the stable
* Since October Mark Brisbourne is just 1-61
* You are often best to rethink if fancying one of theirs
* CRUCIS ABBEY has raced 6 times at a mile or more
* He failed to place in all of these runs
* He hasn't ran at Kempton before
* He's never raced right handed around a bend
* Enough doubts to look elsewhere
* BORIS THE BOLD - Promise in his profile
* Statistically I'd like a slightly better last run
* He is lightly raced though and 1 winner like him
* QUERIDO is 9 and comes from 7f
* NORTHERN SPY is 9 and comes from 7f
* I looked at horses aged 8 or more doing this
* There was a 3-89 record with these types
* That improves a lot with if having a recent run
* It improves even more if the horse has backclass
* Both have recent runs and backclass
* Because of that they are shortlisted
* NORTHERN SPY has the widest draw today
* He has his work cut out but is respected
* QUERIDO has the same profile
* He won this race last year
* Kempton 8f will suit more than Lingfield 7f
* QUERIDO ran as if he was coming to the boil
* I'd give him a good chance of following up

Selection

QUERIDO 4/1 + Win Bet




O t h e r K e m p t o n T h o u g h t s


Kempton 5.15

Quite an open and badly framed handicap with
the safest profile FAIRYINTHEWIND who I'd be
just more relaxed about going for. He's the bet.

Kempton 5.45

The favourite VITZNAU is a statistical negative
badly underraced for a 9 year old but he is not
one to underestimate. Very shrewd stable and
different class to these on his old form. I would
personally avoid him but it wont be a shock if
he does overcome his lack of runs. I would be
far more interested in MATAAJIR. There is so
much strength in depth in the race it's hard to
be confident but with two runs in the previous
nine days MATAAJIR will be one of the fittest
runners and should go very close to winning.

Kempton 7.15

I respect the favourite but he is plenty short
enough and I'd prefer NOLECCE each way 5/1.

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