No Full Bet today

No Top of the Message Bet


I n s i d e T o d a y 's M e s s a g e

Todays message is spread around the three main
flat cards. I've dipped in an out of a several races
today. I have commited to the ones I liked but the
races I didn't feel I could sort out are unfinished.
It is a straight forward realistic message. Difficult
tracks to negotiate but a good spread of races to
consider if only some of them worth considering.
Lots of very complicated races summed up below.


Todays Options


SALISBURY

This card is always trappy. I wont have too many
winners here. Had to stake tactically in places. It
is likely that BEAU NASH will win the 2.35pm but I
wont touch him at odds on. I've had a good crack
at the Apprentice Handicap at 4.50pm. Not easy
with 16 runners. I dont think I have made a case
for a proper bet here. SHAMROCKED appealed a
bit as a saver with THE MONGOOSE the selection.
The preview is a Good effort but it has not broken
through so I wont be staking a bet in this race.


NEWMARKET

Evening card and not as much time spent here as
the other cards. Never been a simple card and no
stand out bet here. I thought BLUE JACK may win
the 8.35pm despite a dangerous stable. He has so
much past backclass that would win this he looks
good enough if a little complicated. It crossed my
mind that BLUE JACK may be an each way double
with DEMONIC in the 6.25pm. Other than that it is
no more than gentle steers here and light analysis.


YORK

Proved yesterday pound for pound when this track
bears it's teeth its the hardest course to bet winners
on. I invariably throw a lot of work at the opening
handicap over 5f at 1.45pm. MISTER MANANNAN is
this years bet in the race. Not sure he is drawn well
and it is a fierce race and I see him as a small stake
interest bet that should be capable of winning if the
track plays fair. Some of the conditions race are so
tricky I can't commit to them. I like TWO FOR TWO
in the 3.15 handicap at 7/2. The ideal scenario was
an each way bet with 4 places at 9/2 but we are not
going to get that. TWO FOR TWO is generally a 7/2
chance with only 3 places so I have turned it down
as a potential bet today. This pair were the horses
I could have gone with but neither looked perfect
to advise so I keep these as options not selections.


No Bet Today


York 3.15 - TWO FOR TWO - could have been a bet

I decided we werent getting the value I wanted at
his current price having lost the 4th place. I could
have included him in a Win-Win Each way Double
with either of my options at Newmarket tonight.


Newmarket 8.35 - BLUE JACK 9/4

Newmarket 6.25 - DEMONIC 6/4

This pair tonight were also considered in an each
way double which has advantages but also risks.

I will be having small bets on all my options here.
I have decided against a bet. The cleanest option
was that Apprentice race at Salisbury and I shall
be betting small in that but I just dont think I have
made a good enough case. I Will wait for the next
advised bet and hopefully that will be on Friday.




W e d n e s d a y 's R e v i e w

It was a York message yesterday and we ended up
with one winner from seven previews. That is not a
great return but it is the hardest track to bet winners
at and I was quite realistic that my main bet would
probably fall short. I went with the each way double
in two seperate races and nothing back from those.
There are good and bad days to stake those novelty
bets and not sure if yesterday was the right day for
that. Overall not impressive but we didn't get much
luck go our way and York is as hard as they come.

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P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S




S a l s i b u r y 1.30

100/30 Cushion, 7/2 Fanzine, 4/1 Madame Vestris
8/1 Society Pearl, 8/1 Songbird, 10/1 Vicksburg
12/1 Fast Pace, 16/1 Oscilate Wildly, 16/1 Sureness
20/1 Pure Mischief, 25/1 Dance, 25/1 Heavenly Prospect
100/1 Dark Rumour, 100/1 Fleur De Fortune.

* Fillies all aged maiden over 10f
* No Draw advantage. In fact its confusing
* That undermines my confidence in this race
* SONGBIRD - I would oppose an unraced older horses
* FANZINE - Not overkeen she was 40/1 in a maiden last time
* CUSHION - Not many winners had as many as 4 runs
* I looked at horses from 10f maidens this year
* None won with 3 or more runs and CUSHION has 4
* She was well beaten last time as well
* Half of me wants to oppose her
* The other half to bet her each way
* My angles say no but this is an unsafe race
* MADAME VESTRIS the favourite is unraced
* It has been a while since an unraced horse won this
* I think the split stake bet is inevitable here
* No strong opinion about what will win
* CUSHION could be a fair place bet around 10/11
* I'd have that bet as half my stake
* The other half on something to win the race
* SOCIETY PEARL - MADAME VESTRIS are options
* Little more than a guessing game really

Selection

SOCIETY PEARL 6/1 + to win
CUSHION to place 10/11



Y o r k 1.45

5/1 Jamaican Bolt, 7/1 Cheworee, 8/1 Bedloe´s Island
8/1 Mister Manannan, 10/1 Dinkum Diamond
10/1 Dungannon, 12/1 Ancient Cross, 12/1 Judge ´n Jury
12/1 Magical Macey, 14/1 Goldream, 14/1 Stone Of Folca
16/1 Fitz Flyer, 16/1 Secret Witness, 20/1 Ponty Acclaim
25/1 Cheviot, 33/1 Hazelrigg, 33/1 Last Bid.

* 5f Handicap for horses rated between 0-103
* York has 22 similar races in May
* Not a very clear cut draw bias
* Force me to choose and I'd avoid very low draws
* Only 2 of the 22 winners were seasonal debutants
* PONTY ACCLAIM is a 4yo filly first time out
* I wouldnt make her a negative but she's not safe
* Her draw wont make it easy for her
* DUNGANNON wouldnt be first choice as a debutant
* STONE OF FOLCA is a 5yo seasonal debutant
* He won first time last year at Epsom so is respected
* That said I looked at all similar races for 5 year olds
* There were 22 wining 5 year olds in May Class 2 handicaps
* Those absent a month or more were 0-48
* No 5yo has won with a break so STONE OF FOLCA is out
* DINKUM DIAMOND fails the same issue
* I dont want a 5yo like him absent so long off his rating
* JUDGE ´N JURY won this last year aged 8
* He had a prep run last year but none this year
* I think he is too old to bet first time out now
* MAGICAL MACEY has never won off his rating
* He hasnt won in this class either
* I wont ask him to when absent 298 days
* I'd avoid horses running this year with a months break
* No winners overcame that absence having run this year
* JAMAICAN BOLT has that against him
* CHEVIOT also has that to overcome
* LAST BID comes out badly as a 4yo filly
* Especially with 1 average run this season
* HAZELRIGG wa swell beaten first time year
* I wanted a better last run for an 8yo
* ANCIENT CROSS isnt badly weighted these days
* He is 9 though older than every past winner
* I looked at 9yo's in all Class 2 handicap over 5f in May
* Only a few won and they all had Group Class form
* ANCIENT CROSS doesnt have that
* GOLDREAM is 4 down in trip with 1 run this season
* No horses managed that without Pattern form
* FITZ FLYER is an exposed 7yo with 2 runs this year
* He was well beaten in last years race with 2 prep runs
* FITZ FLYER is also 0-21 in Class 2 races
* He is 0-25 when racing above a Class 3 race
* He also prefers faster ground
* SECRET WITNESS ran yesterday but not well enough
* CHEWOREE won last time out
* It was only a Class 4 race though
* She is a 4yo filly and has just 1 run this season
* She has no form in this grade before
* CHEWOREE is progressive but its a big ask
* BEDLOE´S ISLAND ran in this race last year
* He was beaten 2.75 lengths with 1 prep run
* That was a good run 6lbs out of the handicap
* I reespect him but he isnt safe statistically
* Not as an 8yo trying to follow up a win
* This is a career high mark and he hasnt won in this class
* MISTER MANANNAN has a similar profile
* He has 1 less run this year but more backclass
* I liked his profile especially with a good weight
* His trainer won this in 2008 with a similar type
* He came from the same Chester race as well
* MISTER MANANNAN was badly drawn at Chester
* I'd give him a strong chance in this race
* He will need some luck from Stall 17
* I felt he had the best overall profile


Selection

MISTER MANANNAN 8/1

Win Bet




Y o r k 2.15

The Middleton Stakes doesn't interest me this year not
least because favourite DALKALA is French and comes
out as a neutral. She is reported as a bit tempremental
and I don't have a strong view about her so wont bother
with the race. Statistically its messy. LADYS FIRST and
STARSCOPE come up from 8f something no winners of
this race did so they are risky. EMIRATES QUEEN wants
a fast service and wont get that. CUBANITA looks good
statistically but with the French horse hard to read this
isn't a race I'm going to bother with today. No Selection.



S a l s i b u r y 2.35

* This is a 5f maiden
* BEAU NASH looks safer than HEDY
* Both his Racing Post ratings bettered HEDY's 4 ratings
* TAX ENOUGH - From a stable that may not have him fit
* He is also a very young juvenile as a late May foal
* BEAU NASH should have enough quality to take this

Selection - BEAU NASH 4/6 Win Bet





Y o r k 2.45

The Dante Stakes is a Derby Trial and not a good race
statistically. I don't have a strong view. WINDHOEK did
not strike me as a horse with a traditional profile. I am
not sold on SECRET NUMBER either. What bothers me
with GREATWOOD is that he has ran four times already
yet has never ran in Listed or Group Class before which
has not been the norm in this race. I would avoid these
three horses. I'd choose from TRADING LEATHER who's
reported to want faster ground, GHURAIR who must be
respected and INDIAN CHIEF. I liked one of these best.

No Selection




Y o r k 3.15

4/1 Two For Two, 7/1 Anderiego, 7/1 Fort Bastion
7/1 Sound Hearts, 10/1 Navajo Chief, 12/1 Justonefortheroad
14/1 Brae Hill, 14/1 Marcret, 14/1 Set The Trend
16/1 Es Que Love, 16/1 Prince Of Johanne, 20/1 Balducci
20/1 Beacon Lodge, 20/1 Moran Gra, 20/1 St Moritz
25/1 Dance And Dance.

* This is an 8f handicap in Listed Class
* There has been 17 renewals of this race

This is a race where 4 year olds do best of all followed
by 5 year olds and unexposed horses dominate. Only 3
three of the previous 17 winners had more than 21 runs
something I decribe as exposed. I would only consider
the exposed horses that had ran recently and ran very
well in that race without winning. The Draw is tricky.

* I looked at Handicaps with 10 + runners here
* Since 2011 there were 13 of these races at York
* Horses drawn 12 or more had a 1-60 record in this race

I dont know how far I can trust that draw statistic but it
does go back two seasons. JUSTONEFORTHEROAD did
not feel right as an exposed high drawn horse. I'd feel
the same about NAVAJO CHIEF as well. With very few
past winners well raced ES QUE LOVE looks unsafe as
does PRINCE OF JOHANNE. I dont want a 7yo going up
in trip like SET THE TREND. I'm against BRAE HILL. No
wins in Listed Class before and his sire's offspring are
0-32 so far in this class and I think he will fall short too.
MACARET isnt for me exposed with a 47 day absence.

* FORT BASTION - 4yo debutants can win and I respect him
* Just wanted to change some things about his profile
* No 4yo won first time out with as much weight as him
* Winning his last race as a 3yo has caused that problem
* I just think that could count against him
* SOUND HEARTS - Wont find it easy as filly first time out
* Every chance she needs further. Not my first choice.
* ANDERIEGO - I felt he was the right type of exposed horse
* Much depends on whether this ground dries out for him
* TWO FOR TWO looks the safest choice with recent runs
* Especially when unexposed fit and progressive
* The 2011 winner was a similar unexposed 5yo
* He also had 3 runs this year and he looks the best option

Selection

TWO FOR TWO 4/1

Each Way




S a l i s b u r y 3.40

7/4 A Ladies Man, 7/2 Studfarmer, 13/2 Symboline
7/1 Majestic Jess, 9/1 Iwilsayzisonlyonce
9/1 Princess Cammie, 10/1 Index Waiter
16/1 Don Eduardo.

This is a 3yo claimer over 7f. The best horse at the
weights is STUDFARMER but he comes up from a 6f
race and his profile was only average. SYMBOLINE
comes out badly from a 5f race. INDEX WAITER has
too much to do. Horses with absences do win but it
is the fillies that have the strong record and males
like IWILSAYZISONLYONCE and DON EDUARDO do
not score well. MAJESTIC JESS is up in trip and as
he has more than 9 runs already I wanted at least
one more run this season. PRINCESS CAMMIE has
plenty to do at the weights and lacks backclass. It
may be best to stay with A LADIES MAN here. His
trainer's won 6 of the last 8 renewals of this race
and A LADIES MAN had the safest overall profile.

Selection - A LADIES MAN 9/4



Y o r k 3.50

I don't have good enough angles to open up this 5f
conditions race. I didnt like SOUND OF GUNS here.
She is the shortest ppriced horse yet a filly coming
down from 7f to 5f and that could catch her out with
just one run this season. MORAWIJ wouldnt be first
choice either absent more than 7 months and forced
to carry a listed race penalty. I'd be looking for any
each way alternative to this pair. LUCKY BEGGAR
POLSKI MAX and SMOOTHTALKINRASCAL all have
solid each way chances but I dont have an opinion
as to which is best given an unimpressive set of stats.

No Selection



S a l i s b u r y 4.15

9/2 Extrasolar, 7/1 Millers Wharf, 8/1 Freddy With A Y
8/1 Sand Boy, 10/1 Little Choosey, 10/1 Malaysian Boleh
10/1 Top Trail, 10/1 Whipper Snapper, 12/1 Gracious George
14/1 Baltic Gin, 16/1 Rock Up, Half Turn, 20/1 Kamchatka
20/1 Olympic Jule, The Black Jacobin, 33/1 Multitask.

* This is a 3yo handicap over 6f
* Looks far too difficult to get involved with
* A Few facts about this race came to light
* All 11 winners had at least 4 career starts
* Horses from 5f races had a weak 1-27 record
* I looked at all similar races here last year
* Horses drawn 12 or more were 0-25
* Horses with 1 run this season struggled
* None won when having 7 or more previous runs
* EXTRASOLAR came out just about best of all
* He's my choice but unlikely I have sorted this out



S a l i s b u r y 4.50

6/1 Ifan, 7/1 Intomist, 8/1 Lady Bayside, 8/1 Shamrocked
8/1 South Cape, 8/1 The Mongoose, 12/1 Balmoral Castle
12/1 Camache Queen, 14/1 Paphos, 16/1 Cape Joy
16/1 George Benjamin, 16/1 Grand Piano
16/1 Offbeat Safaris, 16/1 The Name Is Frank
25/1 Lily Edge, 25/1 Super Duplex, 33/1 Beach Rhythm.

* This is a 7f Apprentice Handicap
* 20 races here last year with 8 + runners
* Horses drawn 1-2 were 0-34 in those 20 races
* INTOMIST has a bad draw in stall 2
* He is 4 and won last time
* Without any backclass I couldnt match him to winners
* LADY BAYSIDE - Worries me she is drawn 1
* I couldnt bet a filly with 1 run this season
* Not in this kind of race
* There are 29 of these races in May
* Horses with 1 run that season were 4-90
* None were fillies like LADY BAYSIDE
* CAMACHE QUEEN is alsoa filly with 1 run this season
* OFFBEAT SAFARIS doesn't offer enough with 1 run
* THE NAME IS FRANK needs more runs this year for an 8yo
* BEACH RHYTHM looks too inexperienced
* There were 4 seasonal debutant winners in 29 of these races
* None were aged 6 or more
* GRAND PIANO is 6 first time out
* With no backclass he doesn't interest me
* IFAN has a very unsafe profile
* None of the 29 winners came from maidens
* He only has 7 career starts
* 28 of the 29 winners had at least 9 career starts
* Winning last time absent 76 days is also a problem
* IFAN doesnt look the right type for this race
* Horses from 9f or further were 0-31
* CAPE JOY was hammered over 10f last time out
* I couldnt entertain a filly with that profile
* SUPER DUPLEX - weak profile well beaten over 6f
* Fillies have a miserable 2-112 record
* Those with under 13 runs were 0-35
* LILY EDGE fails that and looks too inexperienced
* PAPHOS is exposed and well beaten last time
* Not a strong profile but he isnt badly treated
* I looked at 4 year olds in these races
* When having under 9 career runs they are 0-34
* BALMORAL CASTLE has raced just 6 times before
* I wanted more experience for an Apprentice race
* SOUTH CAPE is 10 a little older than is ideal
* There was a 10yo winner of this race recently
* The winners his age had 4 + runs this season
* SOUTH CAPE only has 3 runs which is not perfect
* Two of the 10yo winners raced within a week
* SOUTH CAPE has 24 days off
* Not a negtaive but his profile could have been better
* This trip just short of 7f may also be too short

Shortlist

* GEORGE BENJAMIN has a mixed profile
* Promise in areas like fitness and backclass
* I think he's done enough to be shortlisted

* SHAMROCKED is 4 and has 1-2-3 runs this season
* With backclass I found 1 winner like him
* SHAMROCKED is respected

* THE MONGOOSE is exposed and up in trip
* 5 year olds doing this running within 2 weeks were 2-13
* Both winners came from slightly better races
* THE MONGOOSE has to be respected though

Selection

THE MONGOOSE 8/1 Win Bet
SHAMROCKED 7/1 Saver Bet



Y o r k 5.00

* This 2m Handicap is too difficult
* Too many dual purpose horses hard to read
* You wouldnt think the Draw matters over 2m
* That may not be a safe conclusion though
* There is a sharp sweeping turn after the start
* This draw statistic interested me

* Since 2009 York has had 10 races over 2m
* Thats 10 races with 11 or more runners
* Horses drawn 1-2-3-4-5-6-7 have a 0-65 record in them
* I dont think a low draw is safe in this race
* Favourite HIDDEN JUSTICE is drawn badly in stall 2
* EAGLE ROCK - DAZINSKI are fancied but drawn low
* FLEUR DE LA VIE - I wouldnt risk her from stall 1
* I would oppose these horses
* No selection and no strong view otherwise




N e w m a r k e t


* Tough card tonight

* I see nothing interesting in the 5.20pm maiden
* Both past winners had 2 runs
* It's a pointer to HONEY MEADOW but not for me
* She hasnt set a high enough standard
* She could appeal as a place bet in a split stake
* Thats not a bad option at odds against
* Wont surprise me if an unraced horse does win

* The Newmarket 5.55 is too open
* Not sure about draw but I'd prefer middle-high
* KALILY does not look a good favourite
* Not beaten in a 3yo maiden last time with 3 runs
* He would not be my choice
* ROCK SONG - FROZEN SONG come out quite nicely
* Both have a fair chance but so do too many others
* No selection but I would have avoided Kalily

* The Newmarket 6.25 is a big field maiden
* Not enough is known with unraced horses
* Looks an each way double race. Few can win
* DEMONIC - I like him but not sure his draw helps
* Best plan is watch the 5.55pm for any Draw Clues
* Watch the market for any hints
* DEMONIC in an e/w double looks the obvious play
* Short of that DEMONIC to win

* The Newmarket 7pm 5 is a 12f Handicap
* Not really in my comfort zone here
* SIR BEDIVERE is 4 and won a 3yo maiden this year
* I looked at every 4yo that did that in May
* There were 43 horses that tried to win doing this
* Only 1 of the 43 won (War Poet)
* That winner did not win last time out like SIR BEDIVERE
* SIR BEDIVERE doesnt offer me enough with that record
* Too many borderline profiles elsewhere
* Its messy and murky but I'd have opposed SIR BEDIVERE

* The 8.35 Newmarket is a 5f handicap
* The well handicapped BLUE JACK would be my choice


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