No Full Bet Today

10 Previews



T o d a y 's M e s s a g e

Quite a busy day for a Wednesday and previews
at every track. Plenty of unorthodox races today
that offer something statistically. It is a message
for the purists who like various statistical issues
and watching how they get on. It should be very
interesting to see how some of the selections do
as my angles have steered me to certain places.




T o d a y' s O p t i o n s


Nottingham 2.00 - HIGHLAND ACCLAIM 10/11

If we look at Racing Post Ratings then the only
sensible choice is HIGHLAND ACCLAIM. There
is a safer split stake alternative if you want one
but that is up to you and I'd like to see him win.


Navan 3.05

THOMAS EDISON 8/1 Win Bet

UNDERTHEBOARDWALK 20/1 Win Bet

STORM AWAY 9/2 Saver Bet

This is a very rare race. Hardly any 2m maidens
at this time of year. Huge field and I do not have
any business spending the amount of time on the
race that I have done but some issues fascinated
me and I just couldn't resist trying to get it right.
My head tells me I should bet Storm Away as an
each way single but my angles are clear. They
say ignore the market and ignore all the known
form and bet the National Hunt Types instead so
I have tried to stake it accommodating all options.
Could have some huge price exactas to peanuts.


Towcester 3.50

AMAZING D´AZY 9/4

Win Bet

My angles tell me one of two horses should win
this mares novice hurdle and I prefer this horse.
Not the sort I would have as an account bet. It's
not my favourite stable for a start and there isn't
a big sample size of similar races to cross check
my angles against. What few races there clearly
show several of her opponents are negatives so
I'm inclined to go with her as speculative bet.


There are several other races with some dodgy
looking favourites and some selections that my
angles have pushed me towards. Despite a lack
of account bets recently there is nothing today
that meets a criteria of price, profile and safety.

It just isn't one of those account bet messages.
Not sure how we will get on to be honest but I
like the angles I found and feel the whole sum
of the message is stronger than any selections
I could choose from it. Hope it does very well.



T u e s d a y 's S u m m a r y

The cards were so scrappy yesterday and I wasn't
prepared to take risks in those big field handicaps
and instead ended up with 6 races which made up
the bottom of the message. We went L P W W L L
in those six races. My best bet Bounty Girl finished
an each way second. Seems fair to call it a Level
day and a score draw or should I say a bore draw.

****************************************************
****************************************************


P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W



N o t t i n g h a m 2.00

4/5 Highland Acclaim, 3/1 Conflicting
11/1 Baltic Brave, 11/1 Llyrical, 12/1 Lexington Abbey
12/1 Miss Acclaimed, 16/1 Strike A Light
25/1 Urban Sanctuary, 66/1 Geniusinrhyme.

This is a 2yo maiden over 6f. I would find it hard
to oppose HIGHLAND ACCLAIM. I liked a couple
of things about this race. His Racing Post Ratings
have a progressive 67 74 88 record and that last
figure of 88 should be comfortably good enough
to win the race. We've had 11 previous renewals
of the race. Unraced horses are 0-35 so far in the
11 renewals. CONFLICTING has to overcome that
and may not find it easy against a horse that has
progressive numbers. STRIKE A LIGHT is unraced
as is BALTIC BRAVE too. MISS ACCLAIMED's best
run is inferior to HIGHLAND ACCLAIM's worst run
on RP Ratings. LLYRICAL also looks behind him.
I fear LEXINGTON ABBEY and he could run close.

Selection

HIGHLAND ACCLAIM Evens + Win Bet

The alternative bet should you want more safety
could be the split stake with LEXINGTON ABBEY
to place at 11/10 and HIGHLAND ACCLAIM to win.




T o w c e s t e r 2.20

6/4 My Oh Mount Brown, 5/1 Gwili Spar
5/1 Marico, 8/1 Douchkirk, 8/1 Nurse Ratched
14/1 Bally Lagan, 14/1 Val D´allier
16/1 Thefriendlygremlin, 20/1 Lost In Newyork.

* This is a 2m 5f Novice Handicap Hurdle
* I Don't want the 4 year olds in this race
* VAL D´ALLIER is a 4yo seasonal debutant
* I found 1 of these winning a similar race
* That winner had far less weight than he does
* That winner didn't come from a Novice Hurdle either
* Fillies aged 4 have a 0-27 record in similar races
* NURSE RATCHED is a 4yo filly and therefore unsafe
* DOUCHKIRK doesn't offer enough with his absence
* MARICO won a 3m Novice Handicap last time
* There were no winners like him dropping back to win
* GWILI SPAR should go well and is respected
* Not overkeen he is 5 and doesn't come from a Novice race
* MY OH MOUNT BROWN looks to have the safer profile
* He is older and won a Novice Handicap 8 days ago
* MY OH MOUNT BROWN may well be able to win again




N o t t i n g h a m 2.30

5/2 Dandana, 11/4 Margrets Gift, 7/2 Twin Appeal
11/2 Fisher Lane, 11/1 Argot, 12/1 Offshore Bond
16/1 Sweet Angelica, 40/1 Kingsway Lad.

* This is a 2yo maiden over 6f
* This is Division 2 of the 2pm race
* 11 renewals and unraced horses were 0-35
* ARGOT and TWIN APPEAL have to overcome that
* MARGRETS GIFT has an easy profile to understand
* Filly from a 5f race over 40 days
* I looked at fillies with this profile with 2 or more runs
* There was a modest 1-24 record with similar types
* It's been 9 years since that winner won (Doitforreel)
* OFFSHORE BOND has a similar profile but as a male
* His profile is average at best after a poor last run
* DANDANA comes from a 7f maiden
* FISHER LANE comes from a 7f maiden
* Both horses have acceptable profiles
* I will take a chance on the bigger priced horse

Selection

FISHER LANE 6/1 Win Bet

DANDANA 6/4 Saver Bet






L u d l o w 2.40

15/8 Kathleen Frances, 5/2 Dreams And Songs
6/1 Magic Money, 6/1 Presenting Me, 13/2 The Road Ahead
16/1 Laurens Ruby, 20/1 Fair Gun Lady.

* This is a Mares Novice Hurdle over 2m 5f
* There are only 15 similar races at this trip in October
* Too small a sample size to be safe
* In 15 races horses from Bumpers were 0-34
* DREAMS AND SONGS does this and wouldn't be 1st choice
* Only 1 winner came from a maiden hurdle
* That was a 4yo who won last time after several hurdle runs
* THE ROAD AHEAD has been a big gamble
* THE ROAD AHEAD lost last time and has just hurdle 1 run
* I wanted a better profile than THE ROAD AHEAD
* I looked at 5 year old seasonal debutants
* There was a 0-30 record with these horses
* That's not a statistic I would believe in
* I think the sample size is too small to trust that statistic
* That said 0-30 is 0-30 and MAGIC MONEY fails this
* One thing we can say is that it can't be a positive for her
* PRESENTING ME - I don't have a statistical problem
* Not sure her overall form is good enough
* PRESENTING ME would be my saver if I had one
* KATHLEEN FRANCES sets a higher standard

Selection

KATHLEEN FRANCES 3/1 Win Bet
PRESENTING ME 8/1 Saver Bet





T o w c e s t e r 2.50

4/7 Claret Cloak, 4/1 American Spin, 13/2 Akula
8/1 Dont Take Me Alive, 9/1 Chicklemix, 9/1 Esporao
100/1 Be Kind.

* This is a 2m Novice Chase
* CLARET CLOAK is a short price at 4/7
* My angles tell me he should win and not be opposed
* Male horses aged 6
* Running for the first time this season
* Coming from a Handicap Hurdle
* No previous runs over fences
* Starting under 66/1
* Having between 6-7-8 previous Hurdle runs
* There were 12 horses that had this profile
* 7 of the 12 horses won so he does look ideal
* His Market danger AMERICAN SPIN may find 2m too sharp
* DONT TAKE ME ALIVE is a 4yo
* Not a negative but plenty to find on hurdles form
* CLARET CLOAK with a strong profile looks the one

Selection

CLARET CLOAK 4/7





N a v a n 3.05

5/2 Waaheb, 100/30 Sardinia, 7/1 Storm Away
7/1 Thomas Edison, 12/1 News At Six, 14/1 Katie T
14/1 Tetranema, 20/1 Undertheboardwalk, 25/1 Ros Brin
33/1 Lady Rutherford, 33/1 Nakajima Nate
33/1 Prince Rudi, 50/1 Ballykeen, 50/1 Empress Catherine
50/1 Feels So Close, 50/1 Thuigim, 100/1 Ardkilly Acclaim
100/1 Bonapartes Retreat.

This is a maiden race over 2m. These races are so rare.
In England and Ireland between September- November
there are just 4 of these races and these 4 were the past
renewals of this race. I wanted WAAHEB to be short as I
wanted to oppose him but he has drifted out a bit sadly.

* WAAHEB is by Elusive Spirit
* This sire's runners at 13f and more are 1-26
* That winner won over 1m 5f 194 yards no further
* There must be a chance he will not stay 2m
* I wouldn't be sure he will like this race anyway
* WAAHEB is not a very big horse
* I opposed him last year at Punchestown because of this
* This is a huge field that may cause him problems
* By far the biggest field he has ever faced
* Over a distance he is far from certain to stay on the flat

The problem is finding the right alternative with so few
similar races to guide us. SARDINIA may start favourite
as a once raced Aidan O'Brien horse. Not sure that this
is a race where we want a 3 year old or any once raced
horse. The 4 winners so far were aged 5 8 5 8. No horse
aged 3 has tried to win this yet. There wasn't one in any
of the past 4 renewals so it is anyone's guess how a once
raced 3yo will get on and 4 year olds are 0-23 so far too.

* The 4 winners were aged 5 8 5 8
* The 4 winners had 17 10 21 3 career starts
* They had all ran over hurdles before
* They had 3 5 6 9 previous hurdle starts
* You can begin to see how older substantial horses do well
* After all 2 winners came from Handicap Chases
* 3 of the 4 winners had never ran on the Flat before
* With 16/1 and 25/1 winners in 4 races expect anything

I don't want NEWS AT SIX as an unraced 3yo especially
from a sire without a winner over this far. I'm taking out
the 3yo filly TETRANEMA and 4yo filly KATIE T as neither
are like any past winners. It's harder to rule these 2 out.

The Dilemma's

* STORM AWAY - no 4yo or filly has won this
* Not happy she's a 4yo filly but she has some recent form
* She's go some experience and is running consistently
* I think I should really put her on the shortlist

* SARDINIA - If she wins easily it won't be a surprise
* She's nothing like any of the past winners though
* My angles say no but a small sample size doesn't help
* PRINCE RUDI - An 11yo in a maiden leaves me cold
* He does have lots of the characteristics of past winners
* Like hurdle form and coming from a Chase
* I am half inclined to shortlist him at 25/1
* Only 1 thing puts me off
* No horse aged 11 or more has won a maiden since 1991


Shortlist

* STORM AWAY - Profile not right but I'm upgrading her
* I also think she looks the natural each way bet

* UNDERTHEBOARDWALK - Older National Hunt type ideal
* Absent a long time but 3 of 4 past winners had absences
* He is off longer but his sire bred 2 of the 4 past winners !

* THOMAS EDISON - Older National Hunt type is ideal
* Trainer won this before as well
* I'd rather he didn't come from 10f to 16f but a positive

Selection

THOMAS EDISON 8/1 Win Bet

UNDERTHEBOARDWALK 20/1 Win Bet

STORM AWAY 9/2 Saver Bet




T o w c e s t e r 3.50

11/4 Reves D´amour, 7/2 Amazing D´azy
4/1 Blase Chevalier, 9/2 Garnock, 9/1 Lacunae
12/1 Katie´s Massini, 14/1 No Ifs No Buts
14/1 Scolt Head Island.

* This is a Mares Novice Hurdle over 2m
* There are 32 of these races in October
* Horses from Bumpers (NHF) are interesting
* There were 8 of these winners
* All 8 were seasonal debutants
* 6 of these had Listed or Graded form

* Look at every Mares Novice Hurdle in October
* Thats every Mares race at any distance
* Horses aged 4 from Bumpers were 0-36
* No 4yo has won a similar race from a Bumper
* REVES D´AMOUR fails this statistic
* Look at horses that ran in Bumpers this season
* Horses that ran in Bumpers within 100 days were 0-26
* You do not want a bumper horse that ran recently
* KATIE´S MASSINI fails this statistic
* GARNOCK also fails this statistic
* Horses with just 1 career start in Bumpers struggled too
* All 25 of those horses were beaten
* GARNOCK is trying to become the first
* REVES D´AMOUR is also trying to become the first
* SCOLT HEAD ISLAND - No 7yo won when unraced
* NO IFS NO BUTS hasn't shown enough yet
* LACUNAE - Not a negative but profile weak

Shortlist

* BLASE CHEVALIER is 7 and a seasonal debutant
* She comes from hurdles last year
* Horses aged 7 or more from hurdles last year are 2-10
* Good profile but none ran over 2m last time
* I can overlook that from a good trainer
* Seasmus Mullins does well in these races
* Ignore his runners at 20/1 and more
* Those starting shorter finished 5 W W 2 6
* Potential winner but 442 days off is a long time
* Its several months longer than any similar winner

* AMAZING D'AZY is a 5yo seasonal debutant
* He comes from a Bumper with 3 starts
* I found 1 winner doing that (Charmaine Wood)
* She won at Towcester as well so I see her as a positive

Selection

AMAZING D´AZY 5/2

Win Bet



N o t t i n g h a m 5.00

3/1 Demonic, 4/1 Personable, 6/1 Border Legend
12/1 Amoya, 12/1 Angelic Upstart 16/1 Amaze
16/1 Hydrant, 16/1 Stellar Express 16/1 Villoresi
20/1 Harry Buckle, 20/1 Invincible Hero
20/1 Memory Cloth, Tapis Libre, 33/1 King Of Jazz
50/1 Reflect.

* There are 220 of these 10f handicaps in October
* DEMONIC is 3 and comes from a maiden
* He has just 3 runs and is absent 146 days
* First of all I looked at 3yo's absent 100 + days
* There were 5 winners that managed this
* They had 6 2 8 5 5 career starts
* The horse with 2 runs came from a Listed race
* I looked at 3 year olds with under 4 career starts
* They had a 3-70 record in the 220 races
* Those that came from maidens were 2-42
* Both winners had absences of 15 and 18 days
* DEMONIC with 146 days is absent a lot more
* I can forgive the runs from a maiden
* I can forgive the long absence as well
* Forgiving both together is a different matter
* No horses managed that in the 220 races
* I don't like his profile much or his price
* PERSONABLE has a safer profile
* We know 3yo's from maidens with 3 runs were 2-42
* Those running within 3 weeks were 2-24
* BORDER LEGEND I see as a neutral profile
* There were 3 winners aged 4 with similar profiles
* Two had very recent runs and another a long absence
* None quite like him tried and he's neutral positive
* VILLORESI - Don't feel he is handicapped to win
* Not from Stall 15 which isn't an ideal draw
* STELLAR EXPRESS has a career high mark
* She is an exposed filly well beaten last time
* There are better profiles than her
* ANGELIC UPSTART - Chances if the improvers fail

Selection

PERSONABLE 5/1

Each Way





K e m p t o n 5.40

7/4 Party Ruler, 7/2 Princess Rose, 9/2 Fine Art Fair
11/2 Hipz, 9/1 Limegrove, 14/1 Sleepy Joe
25/1 Aweebitowinker, 25/1 Dancing Juice, 33/1 Jana
33/1 Monsieur Blanc, 33/1 My My My Diliza.

* This is a 6f Claiming race for 2 year olds
* There are 29 of these races in October
* Horses with under 4 career starts struggled
* They had a weak 3-129 record
* Fillies with under 4 runs were just 1-69
* HIPZ fails this and is not safe enough for me
* SLEEPY JOE is not well enough weighted
* LIMEGROVE - No fillies won with over 13 runs

Shortlist

* Fillies absent a month or more are 3-60
* PRINCESS ROSE is a filly absent over a month
* 2 of the 3 winners doing this had 8-9 career starts
* She matches that and has backclass so is a positive
* Neither winner like her came from handicaps though

* FINE ART FAIR comes from a 5f handicap with 5 runs
* Horses with this profile were 1-7 (Clarion)

* PARTY RULER comes from a 7f handicap
* I looked at Males doing that with 8-9 runs
* There was a 2-8 record. He is a Positive

Selection

Comes down to trusting stable for me. I liked
PARTY RULER's profile. He is the best horse in
the race and has a good edge at the weights
but his stable are hard to read and he hasn't
raced on sand before. I think the positives do
just about outweigh the negatives given these
weights. He looks placed to win this race.

PARTY RULER 3/1 Win Bet
PRINCESS ROSE 5/1 Saver





K e m p t o n 6.10

7/4 Poetic Verse, 9/4 Checkpoint, 4/1 Run It Twice
9/2 Knight´s Parade, 16/1 Bell´arte, 33/1 Zaminate
50/1 Valley Dreamer.

* This is a Claimer over 11f for 3-4 year olds
* There are 15 similar races at this time of year
* Only 1 winner came from 8f or shorter
* Only 1 winner came from a maiden
* Neither did both as CHECKPOINT tries to do
* No older horse came from a maiden like her
* CHECKPOINT doesn't have a safe profile
* I think he could be the wrong favourite
* RUN IT TWICE has to come from 6f to 11f
* That looks a very difficult task to me
* RUN IT TWICE is statistically wrong
* KNIGHT´S PARADE seems to have gone off the boil
* He would be the biggest danger
* POETIC VERSE has the strongest profile

Selection

POETIC VERSE 9/4

Win Bet

****************************************************
****************************************************