No Account Bet Today

No Bets Today


T o d a y 's M e s s a g e


Start of St Leger week and as I said yesterday
there will be messages each day up to Sunday
but it will be a slow start. Today is rubbish and
tomorrow will be short as I'm losing time today
with a hospital appointment this afternoon.

We could do with an Account bet winner soon.
We have had two really good spells this season
that has put us in a very strong position. There
are 8 weeks of the season left so plenty of time
for a third good run and that has to be the aim.


No Analysis on Todays Racing


It is rubbish out there today and I've decided to
ignore it all. I should have taken the day off and
made a mistake to think I would find something
on today's disappointing cards. Instead I'm now
going to send the St Leger analysis. I've already
sent my statistics for this race and a summary of
where I stand. Today seems the best chance to
get the analysis out to save time later on in the
week. That is the only analysis today as I see a
weak day's racing that offers me nothing at all.



T o d a y ' s O p t i o n s


No Bets Today


S u n d a y ' s R e v i e w


York was always going to be a tough test
yesterday and there was no chance of an
account bet. My best bet was Nocturn and
a saver on Mass Ralley but neither looked
like winning. I was expecting better runs.
York's the sort of track you expect to treat
you badly as it gives little back. From five
races there we had a small winner and a
saver win and 3 losers so we finished just
behind but no big surprise given the races.

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P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W


Ladbrokes St Leger Stakes (Group 1) 1m 6f

Excess Knowledge 4/1 Galileo Rock 5/1 Leading Light 5/1
Foundry 5/1 Libertarian 9/1 Feel Like Dancing 12/1
Eye Of The Storm 14/1 Talent 16/1 Secret Number 16/1
Cap O'Rushes 20/1 Great Hall 20/1 Dabadiyan 25/1
Havana Beat 33/1 Willie The Whipper 40/1 Dashing Star
Renew 50/1 London Bridge 66/1 Plinth 50/1 Ralston Road

* Recent winners had the following career starts
* 5 6 7 7 7 7 5 5 8 7 9 6 6 6 3 9 7 6 7 7 5 5 5 3 4
* Recent winners had the following number of runs that year
* 3 4 5 5 4 7 5 5 4 4 5 5 4 4 3 5 7 4 6 3 5 4 2 3 4
* FOUNDRY only has 2 career runs
* Thats less than all winners since Snurge in 1990
* FOUNDRY only has 1 run this season as well
* Thats not acceptable with no winners having that
* FOUNDRY also doesn't have the ideal 12f -12f preps
* EYE OF THE STORM only has 1 run this year as well
* He runs today and probably won't run
* The following horses fail several angles
* None look good enough or worth elaborating on
* RALSTON ROAD - LONDON BRIDGE
* DASHING STAR - WILLIE THE WHIPPER
* HAVANA BEAT - RENEW - PLINTH
* FEEL LIKE DANCING doesn't offer enough
* He has no form in Group 1-2 races
* Only 1 of the last 23 winners could say the same
* He has form over 2m which isn't what you want
* His Racing Post Ratings are lower than all past winners
* GREAT HALL looks the wrong type to me
* Not keen he ran over 14f last time out
* No Group form and coming from a handicap as well
* This is all exposed by his Racing Post Ratings
* DABADIYAN has just won his last 3 races
* His big problem is a lack of the required backclass
* He is unlikely to be good enough
* LEADING LIGHT is not like any winners
* He comes from a 2m race which is wrong
* None of the last 25 winners did that
* LEADING LIGHT only has Group 3 form
* We know the vast majority of past winners had more
* He has the 2nd longest absence of 85 days
* His last Racing Post Rating was not impressive
* It was much lower than the last 25 winners had
* EXCESS KNOWLEDGE comes from a significant stable
* Main problem with him is just 2 runs this season
* The last to do that was Snurge back in 1990
* Snurge's numbers were significantly better
* The last 25 winners all had higher Racing Post Ratings
* His last two runs were over 10f and 12f
* You really want a 12f and 12f preparation
* SECRET NUMBER has plenty of positives
* The right number of overall runs including this year
* He is well conditioned with a 12f 12f preparation
* There are 2 factors against him
* His Racing Post Ratings are a bit on the low side
* His biggest problem could be stamina
* His Sire's stamina index is lower than ideal
* His Sire (Raven's Pass) hasn't bred a winner past 12f yet
* Purely on Stamina he is one of the least likely to stay
* Very strong profile otherwise but huge stamina doubts
* CAP O' RUSHES would be quite an exposed winner
* He was a 66/1 Pacemaker in his one run in a Group 1
* Raises doubts about whether he can win a Grade 1
* His sire is also unproven with all his 14f runners
* His last run was below the level required
* I'd be worried he will be sacrificed again
* He could be a pacemaker again for Libetarian
* I could make a very small case for him
* It would take some imagination though
* I don't think he will be good enough
* TALENT is a filly and not many did well recently
* Doesn't worry me as they are fine in this race
* Especially the Group 1 winners like her
* I appreciate she was 2nd string when she won the Oaks
* She is still a Group 1 winner though
* She has to prove she stays 14f
* Her Sire has 3 horses in this race trying the same
* Stamina and a poor last run and her problems

Shortlist

* LIBERTARIAN was unraced as a 2yo
* Many recent winners had the same profile
* He is absent 77 days longer than all recent winners
* I can overlook that as it's only a little longer
* As far as I can see he has two problems
* First is a poor last run when well beaten
* It's very rare to win this race after a bad run
* The last 12 winners were 1-2-3 last time out
* There is also stamina by New Approach
* The sire hasn't yet had a winner beyond 12f
* I suppose there is stamina on the dam's side
* He has also upgraded stables as well
* The distance and his last run do ask questions of him

* GALILEO ROCK has a very solid profile
* Sails through all the strongest angles
* His 77 day absence would be the longest in a long time
* Only by a week though and I can overlook that
* You can argue he hasn't won a Group race yet
* Placed in the English and Irish Derby trumps that
* His overall profile is very competent
* GALILEO ROCK is the best profile
* He is the most likely winner

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