No Account Bet Today


First Message of the week today. Just making a couple
of changes to the service with a new Flat season about
to start and Aintree's Festival also coming next week.




Message Time Change

This will now be no later than 12.30pm from tomorrow


Second Account Each Day

The main account stands and it is unchanged. I want to
add a second daily account for bets that are impossible
to advise on the normal main account for many reasons.
They may be too short. They might involve place bets or
bets in alternative markets or some unusual staking and
unorthodox bets. These bets are optional but designed
to add some clarity and firm up the top of the message.
They will be separate from the normal main account so
there is nothing changing whatsoever with account bets.
These are simply Optional and extra to the main account.



* The Immediate plans is to do messages for 5 days

* I will try and keep to the following schedule.


Thursday - Only a Short Message
Friday - Normal Message
Saturday - Normal Message
Sunday - One preview and Aintree Stats in every race
Monday - Short Message
Tuesday - No message (Funeral)
Wednesday - No Message (Aintree Preparation)

Things will calm down very soon on the home front.
I'm not expecting fireworks with the messages for a
few days not because of the bereavement but only
because we are getting small fields on the Sand at
the moment and the Flat us still a few days away.
Not going to stress about message quality right now.




T o d a y s B e s t B e t s

I rarely do this Exeter card today as there are too many
runners and it's too difficult and time consuming. It's the
scarcity of time as well that forces me to ignore Kempton.

It is a LINGFIELD and SOUTHWELL message today. I feel
quite bored and weary on the Sand at the minute like so
many other people. On days like this it's a necessary evil
but I'm not enjoying the All Weather and next week when
the Flat and Aintree take off I will back off from the sand.



Southwell 2.50

ON DEMAND 4/6

This is the bet my statistics say will win but unfortunately
the unraced horse against him is drifting and this means
he won't be a big enough price to interest me now.


Lingfield 3.00 - MIMI LUKE 11/10

Southwell 3.20 - SOUND ADVICE 15/8

Win Bet on Both Horses

Each Way Double


I like both of these but would rather have them
tied up together in a Win Win Each Way Double.






P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S


L i n g f i e l d 2.30

9/4 Red Invader, 5/1 Ad Vitam, 5/1 Alfresco
8/1 Legal Legacy, 8/1 Pour La Victoire, 10/1 Greek Islands
10/1 Nifty Kier, 16/1 Bajan Story, 20/1 Indian Violet, 25/1 Holli Deya
25/1 Until Midnight, 33/1 Mastered.

* This is a Mile handicap for 0-55 rated horses
* ALFRESCO - No horse as old as him won going up in trip
* AD VITAM - Not a good profile from a 6f race

One of the main issues is how RED INVADER gets on as
a lightly raced horse from a powerful stable. He comes
up in distance today after just four runs. He is a difficult
horse to read. My Angles are inconclusive but they side
more on the negative side. I'm not convinced but I think
he is probably very well treated. Tough one as it horses
that are well handicapped can overcome weak profiles
but you have another complicated issue that his jockey
is having only his 2nd ever ride. One option that should
be considered is RED INVADER to place in a split stake
bet. I would want at least 4/6 and then I'd consider that.

* RED INVADER - Potential Place bet in a split stake

* LEGAL LEGACY - has to be respected

* POUR LA VICTOIRE - Has claims to be considered e/w

No real preference for any of these options over the other.
Interesting that Stan James fielding against Tony Carroll's
POUR LA VICTOIRE. They are 11/2 when the best price at
other firms is 4/1. Very dangerous stable this. Interesting
to see if there is any substance to their strategy or not.

Selection


LEGAL LEGACY 9/2

Saver on either

a) Red Invader to place if 4/6 or better
b) Pour La Victoire if the above bet is not matched







S o u t h w e l l 2.50

Evs Cloverdale, 7/4 On Demand, 7/1 Cards
12/1 Soul Artist, 25/1 Samoan, 33/1 Molly Ahoy.

* This is a 7f maiden for all aged horses
* Two big runners in CLOVERDALE and ON DEMAND
* Interesting issues here
* CLOVERDALE is an unraced 4yo filly
* I looked at every maiden in March and April
* Thats both on Grass and on Sand at every distance
* Fillies aged 4 that were unraced had a 0-75 record

I wanted to make a quick point about Racing Software.
If you run the above statistic about 4yo fillies racing in
any maiden in March and April you may find that three
unraced 4yo fillies won. This is the problem with using
Racing Databases. They may show you that these three
winners were Dani Ridge, Amenixa and Miss Marauder.

What they do not show is that Dani Ridge and Amenixa
had both raced oversees before winning and they were
not unraced and Miss Marauder actually came second
but was awarded the race in the Stewards room. What
that shows me is you can never fully trust any software.

It means no unraced 4yo filly has won any maidens in
March or April at any distance so CLOVERDALE is not
a horse I would like to bet. I also looked at all maiden
races run at Southwell before at any time of year over
any distance and no 4yo filly has won when unraced.

CLOVERDALE looks a bad bet. Of course the problem
is a tiny field which may easily undermine this angle.
We have to consider that CARDS could improve over
the winter and be a threat but no 4yo filly won when
absent so long having just the sole run before. There
is no doubt the better bet statistically is ON DEMAND.

Selection

ON DEMAND 8/11

Win Bet






L i n g f i e l d 3.00

10/11 Mimi Luke, 11/8 Jaywalker
14/1 Rosie Prospects, 25/1 Jazz Bay
33/1 Virtual Symphony

This maiden looks a match between the experienced
MIMI LUKE rated 68 and unraced JAYWALKER. I didn't
like Rosie Prospects much as every time she runs her
Racing Post Ratings seem to decrease and she is doing
a good impression of a regressive horse. The big issue
here is the record of unraced horses like JAYWALKER.

* March and April have 27 of these 3yo maidens over 5f
* Unraced horses had a 0-27 record in these races

There are some unraced winners in similar maidens
open to older horses, but none in 3yo maidens as yet.
That's not a great statistic as not many were fancied
but it is just enough to swing me towards experience.

Selection

MIMI LUKE 11/10

Win Bet





S o u t h w e l l 3.20

11/4 Exclusive Waters, 3/1 Sound Advice
5/1 Skytrain, 11/2 My Son Max, 8/1 Silly Billy
10/1 Caledonia Prince, 12/1 Piceno, 16/1 Hydrant.

* This is a Mile Handicap for 0-80 rated horses
* There are 111 similar races at this time of year
* SKYTRAIN is up in trip with just 1 run in October
* CALEDONIA PRINCE - Needs career best after long absence
* HYDRANT is not like any winner
* PICENO doesn't offer enough

Possibles

* EXCLUSIVE WATERS is a 4 year old
* He won an 8f handicap last time out
* There were 8 winning 4 year olds doing this
* Those with Under 10 career runs had a brilliant 7-12 record
* Those with 10 or more career starts were just 1-17
* EXCLUSIVE WATERS has 17 career starts
* The only winner with more than 10 runs had 14 starts
* EXCLUSIVE WATERS would be far better if lighter raced

* MY SON MAX won a 7f seller last time out
* None of the 111 winners managed that
* All his wins are over shorter as well
* His profile is not very appealing

* SILLY BILLY - I couldn't rule him out
* He is 0-8 in this class though
* Statistically I can't rule him out

* SOUND ADVICE - Good recent run
* His penultimate run - his only run here- may be enough
* SOUND ADVICE is certainly one of the more likely winners

Selection

SOUND ADVICE 15/8

Win Bet





L i n g f i e l d 3.30

11/8 Munfallet, 6/4 Passing By, 4/1 Pearl Princess
25/1 Adam Forever, 25/1 Percys Princess, 25/1 Roman Riches
25/1 Sakhee´ssquirrel, 40/1 Tashtu, 50/1 Spin For A Harp.

This 7f maiden for 3 year olds over a mile looks a
match between MUNFALLET and PASSING BY and
both are hard to split. The betting suggests there's
a case for PEARL PRINCESS each way given she's
9/2 and it is 33/1 bar 3 runners. She does have lots
of improvement to make on her debut figure and I
would just rather side with one of the two seasonal
debutants. The bet here is probably one of these 2
in an each way double. Perhaps the market should
be trusted to decide it as PASSING BY is trained by
Richard Hannon and MUNFALLET used to be before
moving stables last year. I'd like to think they might
know where they stand and whichever is favourite
could be the one. Not interested as a betting race
but if I did play it would be the each way double.

No Selection




S o u t h w e l l 3.50

2/1 Dubai Hills, 3/1 Noble Citizen, 7/2 Frontier Fighter
11/2 Regal Parade, 15/2 Greyfriarschorista
14/1 Dr Red Eye.

Not keen on small field Class 2 handicaps. This one is
over 7f and as there are just 7 similar races run during
March it's a dead duck statistically. REGAL PARADE did
not appeal as a 10 year old up in trip with just one run
in months. FRONTIER FIGHTER comes from 11f to a 7f
race. All I can tell you is since 1998 there are 94 races
like this and none of the winners dropped half a mile
or more and it is not a profile I would want to be with.

Talking of these 94 races all year round if you look for
horses aged 8 or more like DUBAI HILLS who haven't
raced in over 3 weeks there is a 0-49 record so it does
feel uncomfortable that DUBAI HILLS is 8 and absent
as long as 88 days. He's having his first run for a new
trainer which adds to the mystery about the race. No
real promise from DR RED EYE's latest runs and I feel
uninspired with him. GREYFRIARSCHORISTA has not
yet won off his current mark and is 0-17 racing above
Class 4 Grade. NOBLE CITIZEN isn't well handicapped
but he seems to have the least worst profile of these.


Selection

NOBLE CITIZEN 7/2

Win Bet





L i n g f i e l d 4.00

This 12f handicap doesn't interest me. There seems
to be some market interest in ANGUS GLENS but if
we look at similar races in March and April for 4yo
seasonal debutants from 3yo handicaps there's not
a great record. 23 horses tried to win and only one
managed it at Brighton in a Lady Riders handicap.
That horse had 7 runs. ANGUS GLENS has just five.
I'd want a stronger profile before I considered him.

No Selection



L i n g f i e l d 5.00

4/1 Catalinas Diamond, 5/1 Teen Ager
13/2 West Leake, 7/1 Black Truffle, 8/1 Perfect Pastime
10/1 Welsh Inlet, 12/1 Chevise, 12/1 Hinton Admiral
20/1 Bold Ring, 25/1 Fishlake Rebel, 25/1 Little Red Nell
25/1 Zammy, 40/1 Baytown Bertie.

I'm swerving this race. Looks to difficult and there is
a chance it gets harder if Micheal Wigham's ZAMMY
is ready to win after a long absence. I wasn't blown
away with CATALINAS DIAMOND as a mare winning
over shorter last time without a recent race. I would
just look elsewhere because of that. TEEN AGER did
not come out well as a 10yo from a 6f race and I am
also against HINTON ADMIRAL another 10 year old.
The safest profiles may well come from these three.

PERFECT PASTIME
WEST LEAKE
BLACK TRUFFLE

Hard to split I'm going with the more recent run

Selection

WEST LEAKE 9/2

Each Way

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