No Account Bet

11 Races Discussed

3 Selections




Todays Editorial


A nice spread of fixtures today not too many
cards and I can't grumble much. Newmarket
only gets one preview. It is best to dodge the
multiple traps at a very hard track. Ayr isn't a
favourite track of mine. Just the one preview
here as well. I have a few races at Ascot that
were enticing. I have dipped into Wetherby's
card for one race. Irish Racing is easier than
English racing so Down Royal also features.

Last Saturdays message was out of control
and far too ambitious. Today's is much tidier
but I don't see a bet suitable for the account.

Possibly better to wait for Sundays message
as we have the Cork National which is a race
we do very well in. We backed the winner in
2013 and shortlisted the 1st 2nd 4th and 5th
in 2012 and this race alone is worth doing a
message for. Today I have chosen 8 bets in
the 11 races I've looked at. I have upgraded
3 of these to the best bets today but none of
them are selections suitable for the account.

Given the choice of upgrading a bet that will
not be a great price - or spending 24 hours
on the Cork National I can't resist the latter.
Sunday messages a far easier to do so I'm
going to go for something then instead.



T o d a y 's B e t t i n g M e n u


Top of the Message Bets

Down Royal 2.30 - Ma Filleule 100/30 Each Way

Down Royal 3.05 - Wonderful Charm Evens

Wetherby 3.15 - Silviniaco Conti 6/5 Half stake to win
Wetherby 3.15 - Medermit 10/1 Half stake to win


I think WONDERFUL CHARM is the best bet
but too short to bother with. MA FILLEULE's
impossible to rate statistically as a mare and
without a safe profile I won't account her. My
Charlie Hall Split stake bet isn't account level.




Profiles and Preview Selections

Ascot 12.40 - Rascal 5/1 Half stake to win
Ascot 12.40 - Cusheen Bridge 16/1 Half stake E/W

Down Royal 12.45 - Tarabiyn 4/5 Win Bet
Down Royal 12.45 - Verawal 11/10 Place Bet

Newmarket 1.25 - Encore L´amour 11/2 Win Bet

Ascot 2.20 - Next Sensation 4/1 Each Way

Down Royal 2.30 - Ma Filleule 100/30 Each Way

Down Royal 3.05 - Wonderful Charm Evens

Wetherby 3.15 - Silviniaco Conti 6/5 Half stake to win
Wetherby 3.15 - Medermit 10/1 Half stake to win

Ayr 3.25 - Definite Dream 11/4 Win Bet







F r i d a y s S u m m a r y

A very low key Friday without any bets given.
The 5 selections in the bottom of the message
did have 3 winners and a placed each way so
given we had 4/1 and 5/1 winners the analysis
was strong even if it was mentions all the way.




P r o f i l e s @ P r e v i e w s



A s c o t 12.40

5/1 Lightentertainment, 6/1 Rascal
7/1 Broughtons Warrior, 7/1 Padre Tito
8/1 Cusheen Bridge, 8/1 Money For Nothing
10/1 Tara Road, 12/1 Changeofluck
12/1 Coup De Grace, 12/1 Liars Poker
12/1 Rhapando, 16/1 Buckontupence
25/1 Shalianzi, 25/1 Upton Wood.

* This is a Novice Handicap Hurdle short of 2m 4f
* There are 12 previous renewals of this race
* Past winners had the following National hunt runs
* 11 10 5 8 6 7 3 11 9 9 6
* Past winners had the following Hurdle runs
* 8 6 3 4 6 3 3 9 9 9 5
* Past winners had the following runs this season
* 0 3 0 2 4 0 2 2 0 2 0
* Horses aged 7 or more won 2 past races
* Both ran within the previous 3 weeks
* I am against seasonal debutants aged 7 or more
* LIARS POKER and UPTON WOOD fail this
* Horses aged 4 had a poor 1-26 record in this race
* They did win another when one race was at Lingfield
* None ran as badly as SHALIANZI last time
* You do not want a poor recent run in this
* There were 9 winners with recent runs
* Those not 1-2-3 last time out were 1-59
* Those beaten 11 or more lengths last time are 0-50
* SHALIANZI fails this
* BUCKONTUPENCE fails this
* TARA ROAD has this problem too
* You could forgive TARA ROAD's last run
* It was after all in a Chase and this is a hurdle
* Maybe I should do but I prefer others
* COUP DE GRACE also fails this
* None of the past winners came from the flat anyway
* We know horses with a recent run are fine
* We know seasonal debutants are fine
* The biggest problem is the horses in the middle
* Those that have ran this year but not within 6 weeks
* No horse has won this absent 6-16 weeks before
* CHANGEOFLUCK has this problem
* He is 6 and comes from a maiden hurdle
* I looked at 6 year olds from Novice or Maiden hurdles
* All 27 that tried so I'm against CHANGEOFLUCK
* PADRE TITO also fails that 0-27 statistic
* No 6yo has won this from a Non Handicap
* I couldn't risk PADRE TITO first time with topweight

* BROUGHTONS WARRIOR is a 6yo
* He lacks a recent run. Two winners did that
* None had a similar absence of 111 days
* That puts him in a difficult place statistically
* The 2 horses aged 6 that did win had 5 + hurdle runs
* BROUGHTONS WARRIOR only has 4 runs
* It's not a completely safe profile
* He comes from handicaps with under 6 hurdle runs
* No horse has won this race doing that

* RHAPANDO is a 5yo seasonal debutant
* There were 2 winners like him from a novice hurdle
* Both had 3 runs just as RHAPANDO does
* It's a long way to a good profile
* Neither winner came from 2m like him though
* The 2 that did it were Nicholls and Henderson horses
* Not sure how far I can trust Paul Webber first time out
* He hasn't had a winner in Months
* The stable is weak anyway and current form poor

* MONEY FOR NOTHING is a 5yo seasonal debutant
* 1 past winner did that from a handicap
* That horse had 9 hurdle runs
* MONEY FOR NOTHING only has 4 and isn't a match
* Look at the past winners from handicaps
* None had under 6 previous hurdle runs
* MONEY FOR NOTHING only has 4

Shortlist

* LIGHTENTERTAINMENT is 6 and won this season
* 3 horses had his profile finishing 2nd 3rd 9th
* He's improving but his form is all on sharp tracks
* Doesn't look a big horse either which worries me

* RASCAL is a 5yo seasonal debutant
* There were 2 winners like him from a novice hurdle
* Both had 3 runs just as He does
* From a smart yard RASCAL looks interesting

* CUSHEEN BRIDGE has a recent race
* He comes from a handicap hurdle in the last 2 weeks
* 2 winners did that aged 6 and 7
* They had 6 and 9 career hurdle starts
* CUSHEEN BRIDGE is 6 and has 10 hurdle runs
* He has a similar profile to the 2006 winner Armariver
* A little exposed but fit in form and shortlistable

Selection

CUSHEEN BRIDGE 14/1 - Half Stakes each way

RASCAL 5/1 - Half Stakes to win




D o w n R o y a l 12.45

7/4 Tarabiyn, 5/1 Dai Bando, 6/1 Atan, 7/1 Bay Hill
9/1 Verawal, 10/1 High Expectations, 10/1 Scooping
12/1 Batchelors Walk, 14/1 Sophie´s World
33/1 Canova, 33/1 The Scourge, 40/1 Cookie Ring
50/1 Impressive Duke.

I think this juvenile hurdle is a split stake race
TARABIYN is very sexy and will probably win
On Racing Post Ratings he is significantly clear
The ground may be his one flaw
His trainer said he may not suit winter ground
I wouldn't want it softer but the ground looks fine

ATAN is well thought of and impressive first time
Sold at the sales to a significant owner afterwards
VERAWAL Does have better numbers though
He also has that extra race for experience

I'm going for a Willie Mullins split stake bet

Selection

TARABIYN 4/5 Win Bet
VERAWAL 11/10 Place Bet





A s c o t 1.15

6/4 Our Kaempfer, 5/2 Jolly´s Cracked It
7/2 Clondaw Banker, 10/1 Benissimo
12/1 Knockyoursocksoff, 20/1 Light Well
40/1 Hear The Chimes, 50/1 Bajardo.

* This is a 2m Novice Hurdle

Not many can win this. A Non runner would
kill any interest for me. The market is telling
us BENISSIMO may not be fully tuned up to
win. I wasn't sold on JOLLY´S CRACKED IT
said to have had a recent setback. It would
be foolish to rule him out on that alone but
his Bumper form is Non Graded. We have 2
here with Graded Bumper form that's better.

* 3 horses aged 5 ran from Graded Bumpers
* 2 of these horses won
* OUR KAEMPFER does this
* CLONDAW BANKER does this
* OUR KAEMPFER deserves to be favourite
* He has the superior form of the pair
* CLONDAW BANKER does offer a lot to
* Much better stable and a bigger price
* There is also the temptation to bet him each way
* CLONDAW BANKER each way at 5/2 is an option
* Don't think we will get that price now
* Could be an each way double race




N e w m a r k e t 1.25

3/1 Bitter Lake, 7/2 Encore L´amour
7/2 Lady Of Dubai, 5/1 Toujours L´amour
9/1 Sagaciously, 10/1 Irish Rookie, 10/1 Kodiva
16/1 She Is No Lady, 100/1 Ms Eboracum.

Something has changed recently in this race.
The Montrose Fillies Stakes is a race we have
often found the winner in until 2012 when my
last 3 selections all unplaced. We found stats
beaten all over the place in the last 3 renewals.
This now looks a race we should downgrade
until we know what's going on and why. One
stat yet to be broken is the fact no winner has
defied an absence of more than 77 days and
I couldn't bet BITTER LAKE with 134 days off.

Not a race I can be confident about anymore

The last 2 winners both had 4 + career starts
ENCORE L´AMOUR has that - it could be important
She ran in France just 10 days ago
That could be a big help or a big hindrance
It would stop me betting her each way
May be worth a win bet on her though
She is fitter than most here and in form
ENCORE L´AMOUR is miles clear on the numbers
Awarded a Racing Post Rating of 100 last time
Look at every other horses numbers
The career best of all of their runs is only 83
ENCORE L´AMOUR has a huge edge
Now that my not matter in this sort of race
We can't know that for sure but I like her best
Her last number would have won many past renewals
You can argue it took her 3 runs to win a maiden
You can argue she was flattered in France
Maybe so but the numbers point her way
She stinks in the market but I will risk her

Selection

ENCORE L´AMOUR 6/1






A s c o t 1.45

11/4 Cocktails At Dawn, 7/2 Keltus
7/2 Monkey Kingdom, 13/2 Garrahalish
13/2 The Bear Trap, 8/1 Generous Ransom
14/1 Strollawaynow, 14/1 The Clock Leary.

* This is a Novice Handicap Chase over 2m 3f
* Strange race with no 5 year olds
* KELTUS is 4 and every other horse 2 + Years older
* Horses aged 4 are 2-13 in similar races
* Both winners came from 2m 4f races
* None like KELTUS came up in trip
* Weak statistic with few trying - but none did it
* Look at horses that ran this season
* When coming from a Novice Chase
* They had a 5-72 record
* One was a 4yo but not like Keltus
* Horses aged 5 and 6 doing this were 0-28
* It was the 7 year olds that dominated (4-24)
* This tells me the following
* MONKEY KINGDOM is unsafe as a 6yo doing this
* GARRAHALISH is unsafe as a 6yo doing this
* He has additional worries going up in trip
* STROLLAWAYNOW is a bit exposed first time out
* THE CLOCK LEARY - Not from this yard first time

Shortlist

* KELTUS - I see him as a neutral but unlike any winner
* THE BEAR TRAP - No strong objections
* COCKTAILS AT DAWN is a 6yo seasonal debutant
* He comes from a Handicap Hurdle
* Horses with this profile were 4-27
* Those like him with 4-5-6 hurdle starts were 3-15
* COCKTAILS AT DAWN is a positive
* GENEROUS RANSOM also fits that pattern

No selection




A s c o t 2.20

7/2 Next Sensation, 4/1 Bellenos
5/1 Claret Cloak, 11/2 Manyriverstocross
7/1 Ulck Du Lin, 8/1 One Term, 10/1 Stone Light
16/1 Christopher Wren, 16/1 Poole Master.

* This is a Listed Class Handicap Chase over 2m 1f
* I looked at Graded and Listed races in Oct-Nov
* These were over 2m-2m2f and since 2000
* There are 27 of these high class handicaps

* 26 of the 27 winners had 4 + chase starts
* The only one that did not was Best Mate
* He was a triple Gold Cup winner
* He came from a Grade 1 Chase as well
* I feel I should avoid horses with 3 chase runs
* ONE TERM fails that and may need the run
* STONE LIGHT also fails that and may need the run
* You want to avoid horses with poor recent runs
* CHRISTOPHER WREN has this problem
* POOLE MASTER also has this problem
* CLARET CLOAK also ran poorly last time
* Excuses or not no winners were like him
* MANYRIVERSTOCROSS is a seasonal debutant aged 9
* None that managed that had under 13 Chase starts
* MANYRIVERSTOCROSS has just 6 and isn't like a winner
* BELLENOS is a 6yo debutant
* The 6yo debutants all came from Graded races
* They had 3 4 5 8 chase runs
* BELLENOS doesn't come from a Graded Chase
* Thats a worry with 10 Chase starts as well
* Might win but not typical of the 6yo winners
* ULCK DU LIN has the same problem
* He is a 6yo debutant from a lower graded race
* With 14 Chase starts he could be exposed
* NEXT SENSATION profile fine it fit
* He was the one profile I couldn't criticise

Selection

NEXT SENSATION 4/1

Each Way




D o w n R o y a l 2.30

7/2 Boston Bob, 7/2 First Lieutenant
7/2 Ma Filleule, 4/1 Rocky Creek, 7/1 Road To Riches
10/1 On His Own, 20/1 Tammys Hill, 25/1 Realt Mor.

No strong view in the JNWINE Chase.
I would not trust in ON HIS OWN's fitness
FIRST LIEUTENANT -This track isn't ideal in my view
I don't think I'd risk BOSTON BOB first time either
This isn't a race his trainer seems to bother about
Bigger fish to fry later in the year
Best guess would be MA FILLEULE
Unusual runner for Nicky Henderson here
She gets the mares allowance
Smells of a long term plan to run here
She's be my choice each way at 7/2

Selection

MA FILLEULE




D o w n R o y a l 3.05

10/11 Wonderful Charm
13/8 Don Cossack
25/1 Burn And Turn.

The Irish Whiskey Chase is a Grade 2 over 2m 4f
Small field. I prefer WONDERFUL CHARM
Main reason is the suitability of the distance

Racing Post Ratings
Between 2m3f and 2m 5f

165 Wonderful Charm
159 Wonderful Charm - Wonderful Charm
155 Wonderful Charm - Wonderful Charm
153 Don Cossack
152 Wonderful Charm - Don Cossack


WONDERFUL CHARM easily has the best numbers
DON COSSACK's best 2 numbers around 3m
At this distance I think WONDERFUL CHARM is better

Selection

WONDERFUL CHARM Evens

Win Bet




A s c o t 3.00

9/4 Sign Of A Victory, 4/1 Mountain King
5/1 Dawalan, 13/2 Laser Blazer, 12/1 Kilcooley
12/1 Ted Spread, 16/1 Baradari, Get Me Out Of Here
16/1 Verano, 20/1 Laudatory, 20/1 Violet Dancer.

This is a Listed Class Handicap hurdle over 2m.
Not a race I like to preview as it has moved up in
class over the years. There's more complications
trying to rate SIGN OF A VICTORY. He was 9/2 just
three days ago and nobody rushed in for that so
why should we take 15/8 now. His profiles unsafe.

* There are 41 similar races in October-November

* I looked at seasonal debutants from Novice Hurdles
* There were 14 winners with this profile
* All 14 came from Graded Novice Hurdles
* Those from Ordinary Novice Hurdles were 0-20
* SIGN OF A VICTORY fails this 0-20 stat
* Look at all seasonal debutants in 41 races
* They all had Graded form before
* SIGN OF A VICTORY does not have that

* Statistically SIGN OF A VICTORY is a negative
* Foolish to think he could not win
* Ignore these connections at your peril
* This does look a horse I have to oppose at 7/4

VERANO fails the same stats as the favourite and
I don't like him or any of the other outsiders. I can
not have VIOLET DANCER well beaten recently in
a 4yo race. DAWALAN has the same problem too.
The only 4 year olds to win with recent races won
last time out and this pair didn't. The problem with
MOUNTAIN KING is he comes from a lower grade
race. Look at 5 year olds like him that came from a
handicap hurdle in Class 3 or lower. There was an
unimpressive 1-40 record and that winner was far
more experienced and a Mare.

Shortlist

* KILCOOLEY - Recent run not out of it
* Would have been interesting if winning last time

* BARADARI - Probably not but can't rule out

* TED SPREAD - Todays ground should suit
* He has had a prep run on the flat
* I have my doubts but worth considering
* Chances are he doesn't like this stiff track

* LASER BLAZER - Ideally wanted a race within 3 weeks
* I can easily forgive 30 days absence

Both KILCOOLEY and BARADARI are cheap savers

LASER BLAZER 8/1 should be part of any staking plan


No Selection





W e t h e r b y 3.15

6/5 Silviniaco Conti, 7/2 Taquin Du Seuil
6/1 Menorah, 9/1 Medermit, 10/1 The Giant Bolster
12/1 Double Ross, 16/1 Wayward Prince.

* The Charlie Hall Chase is a changing trends race
* The past winners had the following Chase runs
* 5 5 6 8 11 9 11 19 25 13 19 11 19 14 23 20 14 14 25
* Experience used to be crucial in the past
* The last 4 winners only had 5 5 6 8 chase runs
* This year only one horse has under 11 Chase starts
* TAQUIN DU SEUIL is that horse but there are doubts
* He has a recent run and very few have won with one
* This almost always goes to a seasonal debutant
* TAQUIN DU SEUIL didn't jump well first time out
* I think there is a genuine stamina doubt as well
* DOUBLE ROSS has also raced this season
* Given hardly any winners did that he isn't for me
* WAYWARD PRINCE was a shock 2nd last year
* A year older and 3 bad runs since he is too risky
* BALLYPATRICK is rated far too low
* THE GIANT BOLSTER tends to need his first run
* Not keen to risk him away from Cheltenham
* MENORAH has a penalty first time out
* I can live with that but he isn't a big horse
* He has stamina to prove as well
* I don't see enough I like about him

Shortlist

* MEDERMIT is a 10yo seasonal debutant
* Overall that's fine but a long time since one has won
* He is 0-8 racing over 2m 5f and more
* That wouldn't worry me as I think he stays this far
* MEDERMIT is best fresh and in a very small field
* Look at his record in Chases
* In fields of less than 10 absent over a month
* His record is W 2 W W 4 4 W

* SILVINIACO CONTI is the class horse
* He is rated at least 9lbs higher than all his rivals
* He won this 2 years ago so likes the race

Selection


SILVINIACO CONTI 11/10 - Half Stakes to win

MEDERMIT 10/1 - Half Stakes to win

You could put the Medermit half stake in the
Without the Favourite market around 4/1-9/2.




A y r 3.25

7/4 Master Of The Game, 5/2 Definite Dream
4/1 Authinger, 5/1 Kumbeshwar, 9/1 Too Cool To Fool.

This is a 2m Handicap Chase

I want to oppose MASTER OF THE GAME
I want to oppose KUMBESHWAR
I want to oppose AUTHINGER

This could be suicide as these are easily the best
horses in the race. They have 1 thing in common
that puts me off. They have recently downgraded
stables and better trainers have given up on them.

MASTER OF THE GAME has always been a rascal
and despite winning on his chase debut last May it
is significant Henderson has got rid of him. I think
the same about KUMBESHWAR a poor jumper of
fences and another recent downgrader. He has to
overcome a very poor seasonal debut which was
a continuation of poor form for a better stable last
year. Anything can happen in a small field like this
but I just don't want to trust these rejected horses.

* AUTHINGER - 6yo from Novice Handicap Chase
* These horses have a good record in these races
* At least when they win last time and have few runs
* AUTHINGER was only 2nd and is a bit exposed
* I found 1 winner just like him (Gayles and Showers)
* That was years ago though and I am against him
* It may be a mistake to do this with runs this season
* What swings it for me is his recent downgrade
* Sold for just 6k from a top yard to a small yard
* That for me undermines his chance

* TOO COOL TO FOOL - 11yo debutants score badly
* Could be worth a saver given track form/small field

* DEFINITE DREAM - 7yo seasonal debutant
* No reason why he can't win statistically

With 3 of the 5 runners having recently been taken
from Top Class yards and rejected by their trainers
I'm taking a chance on DEFINITE DREAM in the hope
he can improve past these rejected horses first time.

Selection

DEFINITE DREAM 11/4

Win Bet


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