1 Account Bet

Gowran Park 5.20

CLONBANAN LAD 7/4

Win Bet


It is Arc De Triomphe weekend and it could
be quick ground in France yet soft at many
English tracks. The weather must be a big
factor today and Sunday. It needs watching
and it will be a day of ground changes and
non runners. I've covered plenty including
races in France, Ireland, National Hunt, the
Flat and the All Weather so plenty of variety.

It was either a No Bet or a Short Price today
as the Rain is going to damage some of my
bigger priced selections and the races they
are running in. Not ideal but I felt I would go
with a bet despite the price. May be wrong
to do this. I'm more interested in the 6 bets
in the top of the message than the rest and
there are bets there I fancy and despite the
main bet being a short price I liked all six.


T o d a y s R a c i n g



14 Previews

I have done bits and bobs at Newmarket
and Redcar but I have a natural aversion
to big fields at these tracks and I feel the
better options are in lower profile races.

Obviously some of the previews are not
races I am confident about and included
because of their Status rather than what
they actually offer statistically. Thats why
I don't advise following the messages on
a Saturday. These are my favourite races.


Fontwell 2.15

MILE HOUSE 3/1 Win Bet


Gowran Park 5.20

CLONBANAN LAD 7/4 Win Bet


Wolverhampton 6.30

AR COLLEEN AINE 5/2

Each Way



It's the usual Saturday dilemma or whether
to go for Shorter Prices and play it safer or
have a riskier strategy and go for a bigger
priced bet. To be honest with the rain a big
factor and not knowing where or when this
will come and how many won't run it seems
foolish to take any unnecessary chances.

I did have two Foreign bets I liked at decent
prices. I feel I have made a decent case for a
bet on both but half the fields are horses we
have never heard of any it would be probably
be Ego or Arrogance to think I can sort them.
Just for the record these were the selections


Longchamp 1.30 - GLARING 6/1 Each Way
Longchamp 1.30 - AUVRAY 6/1 Saver


Gowran Park 3.35 - SIR ECTOR 6/1 Win Bet
Gowran Park 3.35 - ONTHEGROUND 12/1 Saver


There was another temptation to have a big
priced bet on the following horse at Ascot.


Ascot 2.05 - JUSTICE DAY 9/1

I like his profile but he needs rain and I don't
know how much will have arrived by the first
race. He also has a poor draw and unreliable
stable so i the preview I've split staked him.

In the end unless I went "no bet" I felt I had
to go with one of the shorter priced ones on
the day and I was most drawn to this bet.


Gowran Park 5.20

CLONBANAN LAD 7/4

Win Bet







P r o f i l e s @ P r e v i e w s


L o n g c h a m p 1.30

7/2 Vazira, 9/2 Baino Hope, 5/1 Auvray
6/1 Glaring, 8/1 Doumaran, 8/1 Kaldera
8/1 Rio Tigre, 14/1 Vent De Force
16/1 Theme Astral.

* This is a French Group 2 race over 1m 7f
* It is restricted to 3 year olds only

Way out of my comfort zone. I only looked
at the race as Nick Mordin said in the press
this week that VAZIRA was his best bet over
the weekend. I had a look at VAZIRA and I'm
cold on her. I don't fancy betting any horse
that comes from 10f and runs over 15f with
a serious 5f step up in distance. I decided
to look at past winners to see what I might
find. I discover a brilliant record of horses
unraced as 2 year olds but that doesn't do
us any good as most were not. Then I find
a quite brilliant record of horses that came
from the Prix de Lutece in early September

* These recent winners came from this race
* 2013 2012 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004

* VAZIRA does not do this so is opposed
* The following horses also missed this race
* BAINO HOPE - KALDERA
* RIO TIGRE - VENT DE FORCE
* I want a horse coming from the Prix de Lutece
*There are 4 horses that do this

Shortlist

* AUVRAY Won the Prix de Lutece
* GLARING was 2nd in the Prix de Lutece
* THEME ASTRAL was 3rd in the Prix de Lutece
* DOUMARAN was 4th in the Prix de Lutece

It's a guess from here. THEME ASTRAL is now
passed over as he was an unfancied outsider
in that best trial. DOUMARAN is out as he may
not be his stables number 1 in the race. I just
wonder if I'm making a mistake and ruling him
out to soon as the last 3 winners all had 4 runs
as DOUMARAN does and he's a big price here.

I'm going with GLARING who was favourite in
the best trial race and AUVRAY who won it.

Selection

GLARING 6/1 Each Way

AUVRAY 6/1 Saver




R e d c a r 2.00

If you gave me a free bet in this hideous maiden
I would either put it on SHOOTINGSTA in a dirty
each way bet around 9/4 or an each way double.
Nothing much against AWJAB but I try to avoid
horses starting 100/1 or more last time. Because
of that I will stay with SHOOTINGSTA as above.



A s c o t 2.05

11/10 Muthmir, 11/2 Steps, 13/2 Justice Day
9/1 Demora, 10/1 Ladies Are Forever, 12/1 Milly´s Gift
12/1 Online Alexander, 20/1 Ajjaadd, 20/1 Kickboxer
33/1 Addictive Dream, 40/1 Hay Chewed
40/1 Sleepy Sioux, 66/1 Holley Shiftwell.

* The Rous Stakes is a Listed race over 5f
* This race used to be run at Newmarket
* Since 2011 it switched to Ascot
* Look at 5f Ascot races with 10-15 runners
* There are 19 of these races since 2012
* These were the winning stalls
* 6 4 8 8 11 15 14 10 8 18 11 14 12 2 11
* High numbers have the best record
* All past winners had runs within 43 days
* They had 8 6 6 6 4 7 16 8 9 12 12 8 runs that year
* No horse fails the above two stats which is a waste
* SLEEPY SIOUX has a bad draw and is unsafe
* KICKBOXER - No 3yo won from all aged handicaps
* HOLLEY SHIFTWELL is weighted to low
* I don't want a poor last run
* 16 of the last 7 winners ran within 7 lengths last time
* ADDICTIVE DREAM fails this
* MILLY´S GIFT only won a Class 3 race last time
* I don't feel she has enough backclass
* ONLINE ALEXANDER is a 3yo filly
* Fillies aged 3 are 1-27 in this race
* That winner (Sakha ) won 6 days beforehand
* She had more backclass than ONLINE ALEXANDER
* ONLINE ALEXANDER doesn't have a great profile
* All female horses are 2-63 in this race
* Both had recent runs and were aged 3-4
* Mares aged 5 or more are 0-15
* DEMORA is an older mare and fails that
* I feel she is short of runs with only 4 this season
* LADIES ARE FOREVER is older than all past winners
* I'd see her more positive than negative
* Whether she is good enough over 5f is an issue
* AJJAADD is 8 as were two past winners
* My issue with him is he is 0-15 above Class 3 grade

Shortlist

* STEPS won this race last year
* He came from the best trial race then
* This year he comes from a different race
* Horses from that race were 0-14 trying to win this
* I can't worry too much about that
* STEPS does have a penalty as well though
* He will be wanting rain

* MUTHMIR has the best last time out figure
* Lots to like and must have a chance
* I'd have liked to see past winner from the Portland
* All 9 that tried lost though and Stall 4 isn't a great draw
* If you look at the 17 past renewals
* Horses with under 10 career runs were just 1-36
* That winner (Sakha) had won 6 days beforehand
* MUTHMIR only has 8 career starts another issue
* He has never raced over a true 5f before as well

* JUSTICE DAY is a 3yo and interesting
* He comes from the best trial race
* The following past winners came from the same race
* 1997 1998 2005 2007 2009 2013
* JUSTICE DAY is similar to the 2009 winner
* I would worry about fast ground for him
* His past riders have said he has a soft ground action
* Most wins with cut his 5f form on Good or faster is weak
* None of his 5f numbers away from soft ground are enough
* If the rain gets in the ground he would be my choice
* The draw would limit the risk I want to take with him

Selection

JUSTICE DAY 9/1 - Half Stakes to win

STEPS 11/8 - Half Stakes to Place





F o n t w e l l 2.15

2/1 Brother Tedd, 9/4 Lily Waugh
5/2 Mile House, 9/2 Ballyheigue Bay
20/1 Family Motto.

* This is a Novice Hurdle over 2m 4f
* I looked at similar races in October over 2m 3f-2m5f

We have 4 probable winners. A Badly framed race
and two last time out winners. There are some fair
horses here. Any last time out winner in a Novice
hurdle is respected so BALLYHEIGUE BAY could
go well but he has not run in 5 months and I found
no more than a respectable profile. LILY WAUGH's
also facing an absence and last ran in handicaps.
There were only 3 mares with her profile and these
were unfancied all finishing unplaced and I have to
see LILY WAUGH as a neutral. BROTHER TEDD is
coming from a Bumper last season. Horses with a
replica of his profile had a 5-42 record and there's
no statistical reason why he can't win. None of the
three can be ruled out. There is one strong profiile.

* MILE HOUSE won a Novice Hurdle last time
* Male horses aged 6 with a recent run like him
* There is a brilliant 15-24 record with these horses
* Those with 2 hurdle runs like MILE HOUSE were 6-7
* They finished W W 2 W W W

Selection

MILE HOUSE 3/1

Win Bet




G o w r a n P a r k 2.25

9/4 Lone Star, 5/2 Credulous, 9/2 Bay Hill
5/1 Glance Of Doon, 8/1 Batchelors Walk
16/1 Gold Class, 20/1 Beatabout The Bush
25/1 Douman.

* This is a 3yo hurdle over 2m

It will bite me one day but I'm going to keep
mentioning it until it does and that's Verglas
the sire of BAY HILL who is now 0-65 with all
his 3yo hurdlers. To be fair he ran well on an
unplaced debut and he has won since on the
flat so I wouldn't lay him. LONE STAR comes
from a master stable so could easily win first
time over hurdles but he has some very poor
numbers on the flat and I would have to be a
bit cautious he is available to back at quite a
big price. Not sure CREDULOUS stayed last
time over 17f and this drop to 16f might be a
help. He has the best two numbers and has
every chance of being better than these.

Selection

CREDULOUS 7/4




R e d c a r 3.05

13/8 Limato, 8/1 Mattmu, 10/1 Bronze Maquette
10/1 Mind Of Madness, 12/1 Kasb, 14/1 George Dryden
16/1 Realtra, 20/1 Cockney Island, 20/1 Sors
22/1 Fox Trotter, 25/1 Fuwairt, 25/1 Primrose Valley
25/1 Sea Wolf, 25/1 Snap Shots, 25/1 Wet Sail
33/1 Lady Desire, 33/1 Prince Bonnaire
50/1 Buccaneers Vault, 50/1 Vimy Ridge
66/1 Diamond Creek, 66/1 Mythmaker
66/1 Roudee, 100/1 Grey Zeb.

Not sure about this 2yo Listed race over 7f
LIMATO dominated on official ratings
He is clear top on Racing Post Ratings
The trouble is he has by far the longest absence
In a big field I don't know how far I can trust him.
One Statistic I do like
Since 2003 Redcar have had 1407 races
Thats every race any time of year at every Distance
Horses drawn 20 or higher were 1-86
I would avoid these horses drawn 20 +
BRONZE MAQUETTE - KASB - GREY ZEB - FUWAIRT
There is a compromise bet with LIMATO
You could have a split stake bet
LIMATO to win and MATTMU to place
MATTMU each was is another option
Not interested myself in trying to mail this
MATTMU is about 7/4 to Place
A similar price as the favourite is to win
I will stick with that as a guess
MATTMU a place bet at 7/4 as a guess





A s c o t 3.15

9/2 Tropics, 6/1 Reckless Abandon, 7/1 Danzeno
7/1 Louis The Pious, 10/1 Intibaah, 10/1 Lightning Moon
10/1 Signs Of Blessing, 14/1 Badr Al Badoor
14/1 Lucky Kristale, 16/1 Aeolus, 16/1 Musical Comedy
20/1 Brown Sugar, 20/1 Caspar Netscher
20/1 Green Door, 20/1 Krypton Factor, 20/1 Royal Rock
40/1 Boomerang Bob.

* The Bengough Stakes is a Group 3 over 6f
* Only 6 past renewals to try and narrow it down
* All 6 winners were rated 100 or more
* I would concentrate mainly on horses rated 104 +
* So far this race has not gone to an inexperienced horse
* Horses with under 10 career starts were 0-22
* DANZENO has this to overcome with just 6 runs
* LIGHTNING MOON only has 2 runs which is a worry
* LUCKY KRISTALE could be short of runs as a filly
* Every winner was aged under 8
* The 7 winners had 8 7 6 7 3 11 runs that season
* I don't want INTIBAAH with 1 run this year
* 5 of the 7 winners had between 10-15 career starts
* None of the winners came from a 5f race
* RECKLESS ABANDON only has 2 runs this year
* We have to decide if we can forgive him that
* He does have 10 career runs which is ideal
* I'm worried about coming from a 5f race
* Especially with just 2 runs this season

* SIGNS OF BLESSING - I can live with 9 runs
* A penalised 3yo is not a natural choice

* TROPICS has the ability and comes from a Group 1
* Horses from Group 1-2 races are 0-23 in this race

* LOUIS THE PIOUS - The numbers say include him
* Exposed with no pattern form I wasn't convinced
* I don't see a better option. I'm split staking

Selection

LOUIS THE PIOUS 6/1 Win Bet

TROPICS 6/4 Place Bet






G o w r a n P a r k 3.35

5/1 Manuka, 11/2 Swantykay, 7/1 Ontheground
7/1 Sir Ector, 8/1 Just For Joe, 8/1 Minella Tweet
9/1 Louisville Lip, 9/1 Wisty, 10/1 Dandridge
14/1 Colla Pier, 16/1 Mind The Pennies, 16/1 Montrel
16/1 Orion´s Might.

On first glance this looks a very hard 2m handicap
hurdle but there won't be many that can win. I had
a quick play with some profiles and wanted to kick
a few out and the more you poke it the easier it is.

* MANUKA ran in a 2m 4f handicap 7 days ago
* Horses running within 2 weeks from 2m 3f or more
* Those aged 5 like MANUKA were 0-28

* DANDRIDGE won a Maiden Hurdle last time
* I looked at 5yo's winning Novices or Maidens
* Those with under 6 hurdle runs were 0-18
* DANDRIDGE has 2 hurdle runs and fails that
* JUST FOR JOE - The drop in trip may not suit
* MONTREL - I don't want a 5yo seasonal debutant
* ORION´S MIGHT - I needed a much better last run
* COLLA PIER is a mare with too much to prove
* LOUISVILLE LIP - Impossible to read
* I'd have to make him a neutral
* Would not be my first choice though

Shortlist

* SWANTYKAY - Statistically a positive
* His sires runners are poor on soft
* If the rains stay away he's a big runner

* ONTHEGROUND is a 9 year old
* He has a run within 3 weeks in a 2m handicap hurdle
* Similar 9 year olds had a 2-15 record
* He's very exposed but has some big numbers

* SIR ECTOR - Topweight but very smart on the flat
* He has hurdle form that could win this
* Looks a horse with an engine

Selection

SIR ECTOR 6/1 Win Bet

ONTHEGROUND 12/1 Saver



R e d c a r 3.45

100/30 Patentar, 9/2 Penitent
5/1 Muteela, 5/1 Tawhid, 6/1 Cape Factor
7/1 Linton, 8/1 Glen Moss, 33/1 Dream Walker.

I have no idea what will win this Listed race
11 renewals and horses with under 8 runs are 0-21
The favourite Patentar only has 4 runs
Because of that I'd go each way against him
I have to guess and mine is TAWHID at 3/1





A s c o t 3.50

9/2 Prince´s Trust, 6/1 American Hope
6/1 Highland Acclaim, 8/1 Redvers
12/1 Heaven´s Guest, 14/1 Almargo, 14/1 Blaine
14/1 Chil The Kite, 14/1 Grey Mirage, 16/1 Eastern Impact
16/1 Fort Bastion, 16/1 Heavy Metal, 20/1 Intransigent
20/1 Morache Music, 20/1 Sirius Prospect, 25/1 Brazos
33/1 Silent Bullet, 40/1 Empire Storm.

* This is a 7f handicap for horses rated 0-107
* Ascot has had 17 renewals of this race
* There are 69 similar races in September and October
* Over the years my angles have done well in this race

* The Draw is quite complicated
* If I look at all handicaps with 10 + runners
* Then the horses drawn 14-15-16-17-18-19-20 struggle
* If I look at races with 10-18 runners
* Then horses drawn 13 or higher struggle
* Overall the highest numbers would worry me

* GREY MIRAGE - Absent too long for a horse with 20 runs
* Doesn't look well drawn either
* Horses from Listed or Group races are 2-71
* Both winners were 4 year olds and unexposed
* Horses of any other age doing this are 0-52
* The following 4 horses all fail this
* CHIL THE KITE - BRAZOS
* EMPIRE STORM - SIRIUS PROSPECT

* All 69 winners were rated 105 or lower
* No winners won with a rating over 106 or more
* All 22 that were rated higher lost
* CHIL THE KITE fails that and I don't like his draw
* BRAZOS fails this any other angles
* SIRIUS PROSPECT fails this any other angles
* MORACHE MUSIC is rated 106 higher than all winners
* That's asking a lot off a career high mark

* 18 of the 69 winners were 3 year olds
* They had 12 6 12 4 6 10 8 12 14 8 3 10 6 9 4 7 13 12 runs
* The 18 winners aged 3 had these official ratings
* 95 86 95 93 87 93 90 93 95 87 84 102 90 85 97 100 97 101
* No 3yo has won with a rating of more than 102
* BRAZOS - ALMARGO fail this
* EASTERN IMPACT fail this and is badly drawn

* AMERICAN HOPE is 3 and has a rating of 104
* He's also rated higher than any 3yo winner
* AMERICAN HOPE is also 3 and absent 42 days
* Horses aged 3 absent over a month are 2-82
* Poor record and both winners were different
* They had 10lbs less than AMERICAN HOPE
* SILENT BULLET is rejected for similar reasons

* I looked at 3 year olds with 15 or more career starts
* There was a 0-37 record with similar types
* ALMARGO (18 runs) fails that
* ALMARGO keeps going up in the weights when losing
* He probably wont defy a career high mark from his draw
* HIGHLAND ACCLAIM (16 runs) fails this too
* HIGHLAND ACCLAIM is 3 and comes from a 6f race
* All winners aged 3 doing this had under 13 runs
* HIGHLAND ACCLAIM has 16 and those with 13 + were 0-18

* PRINCE´S TRUST - 1 run this year worries me
* He won a weaker race last time and is up 12lbs
* His trainer has won this with a horse with 1 run
* That was an older vastly different type though
* PRINCE´S TRUST would worry me with 1 run

* There were 13 winners that came from 6f or shorter
* Those aged 6 doing this were just 1-41
* The only winner doing this ran within 7 days before
* REDVERS is 6 and comes from a 6f race 2 weeks ago
* It's a flaw in his profile
* Horses aged 4 from 6f races were 3-73
* HEAVEN´S GUEST is 4 and comes from a 6f race
* The 3 winning 4 year olds doing this had 13 18 18 runs
* HEAVEN´S GUEST has 23 runs and is a bit more exposed
* I looked at 4 year olds from 6f with 20 + career starts
* There was a 0-29 record so I'd prefer fewer runs
* HEAVY METAL - Not keen on his draw or last run
* Suspicion is this is not his time of year
* FORT BASTION comes from a 9f race
* All 25 horses that did that were beaten
* INTRANSIGENT is exposed and absent 42 days
* That profile isn't a complete disaster
* He is on a career high mark though
* He is also 0-18 in fields of 10 or more
* He will do well to overcome all that
* That said the field could split

Shortlist

REDVERS and HIGHLAND ACCLAIM both fail
angles that I could be tempted to forgive. I am
worried that PRINCE´S TRUST is underraced
this year but his trainer is top class and it will
be a mistake to assume he couldn't win this.

I liked BLAINE best

* BLAINE is 4 and comes from a 6f race
* There were 3 winners doing that
* All 3 had Group form and 13-20 runs like him
* BLAINE is like the 2011 winner and I like his profile

The problem with him is the rain changing the
ground to soft. It's not a deal breaker and many
of my potential savers have similar concerns. I
am going to stay with BLAINE and chance him.

Selection

BLAINE 14/1 E Way





A s c o t 4.25

3/1 Al Thakhira, 3/1 Felwah, 4/1 Queen Catrine
10/1 Interception, 10/1 Meeting Waters, 12/1 Dutch Rose
12/1 Joys Of Spring, 14/1 Perfect Blessings
20/1 Moonvoy, 25/1 Ishiamber, 25/1 Nakuti
25/1 Who´s That Chick, 33/1 Tobougg Happy
40/1 Capelita.

* The October Stakes is a 7f Listed race for fillies
* There has been 13 renewals of this race
* All 13 winners were 3 year olds (others 0-54)
* Interception- Dutch Rose fail this
* Who´s That Chick - Ishiamber also fail this
* Past winners had 9-6-11-8-5-8-3-7-5-9-8-7-6 runs
* They all had under 12 career runs
* No winner had 1-2-3 runs this season
* Tobougg Happy and Capelita fail this
* All winners came from 6f-7f-8f in Class 3 or higher
* Moonvoy fails this
* No winner lost by more than 10 lengths last time
* Nakuti looks outclassed
* Meeting Waters may lack enough to win
* JOYS OF SPRING - Her official rating puts me off
* FELWAH - 3yo's from handicaps are fine
* The winners doing this had 4 8 9 8 9
* FELWAH with 6 runs isn't an exact match

* PERFECT BLESSINGS - I can't rule her out

This has been a race where several past winners
have redeemed themselves after poor seasons so
I wouldn't rule out AL THAKHIRA much as she's a
small horse and has raced just once in 132 days.
QUEEN CATRINE is also trying some redemption
and I don't mind her profile. It's wide open and it
may beat me as I am forced to guess about a few.

Selection

QUEEN CATRINE 5/1

Each Way




N e w m a r k e t 4.40

7/2 Minalisa, 9/2 Remember, 11/2 Artistic Jewel
11/2 Penny Drops, 6/1 Mu´ajiza, 7/1 Indignant
10/1 Danehill Revival, 14/1 Inyordreams
25/1 Boston Rocker, 25/1 Souville
33/1 Hopes N Dreams, 50/1 Serenity Spa.

* This is a Listed race over 6f for all aged fillies
* There are 11 past renewals of this race
* No winners were aged 6 or more
* Every winner had at least 4 runs that season
* No past winners had 21 or more career runs
* Every winner came from a Grade 1 track
* Every winner came from at least a Class 2 race
* None of the winners came from a 5f race
* No winners came from 3yo handicaps

I see DANEHILL REVIVAL and BOSTON ROCKER
as short of runs this year. PENNY DROPS may be
the one but from a 3yo handicap she isn't like any
past winner. Recent handicap form has not been
a good profile and I'm avoiding REMEMBER with
a recent run. Every winner came from a Grade 1
track something MU´AJIZA fails to do. Also failing
this is the favourite MINALISA. If you look for the
record of horses coming from handicaps in the
previous two weeks you find a 1-32 record with
a 4yo Frizzante being the only winner. This does
not push me towards MINALISA or REMEMBER.
There are two horses that pass these statistics.
INDIGNANT rejected by Hughes and the choice
ARTISTIC JEWEL 7/1 who I'll go with each way.

Selection

ARTISTIC JEWEL 7/1

Each Way




G o w r a n P a r k 5.20

6/4 Clonbanan Lad, 9/4 Shield, 3/1 Benemeade
7/1 Riverside City, 25/1 Seven Acres, 25/1 Vic Chic
33/1 Trazar, 50/1 Mad Money.

This is a Beginners Chase over 2m 2f. It surprises
many that SHIELD has been sent chasing. I didn't
see that coming. He's quirky and has just fallen in
hurdles race. I don't fancy him. He may well win if
jumping well and his flat bred sire has got a chase
winner on his CV but I want to look elsewhere and
statistically the only 5yo winners from a recent run
in a Novice Hurdle had under six hurdle runs and
SHIELD is not a close enough match with 15 past
hurdle runs. BENEMEADE has a solid chance but
it does bother me a bit he couldn't beat a flat bred
chaser in Security Breach two runs ago. Given he
has some far bigger numbers CLONBANAN LAD
may well outclass this lot. He's ran in a Champion
bumper and won over hurdles. Whilst he is 0-7 in
Chases there are some obvious excuses. Beaten
by a race fit horse on his debut. He has then had
excuses against a Grade 1 Chaser followed by a
Graded Chase. Inexperience may have beaten
him in a 3m Handicap. He has had other excuses
like fitness after that. I think he may outclass this
field. It is a tasty little Chase but I do fancy him.

CLONBANAN LAD may not be the most reliable
but the Jury's out about that. You could argue a
lot of sound excused give that false impression.

His Chase Racing Post Ratings include these

130 139 139 139 137

Thats a fair standard and better than the winning
ratings the 3 previous winners of this race needed.

SHIELD has never jumped a fence before
RIVERSIDE CITY has never jumped a fence before
BENEMEADE has only achieved a 128 two runs ago

Selection

CLONBANAN LAD 13/8

Win Bet




W o l v e r h a m p t o n 6.30

9/4 Rictrude, 7/2 Millar Rose, 5/1 Ar Colleen Aine
5/1 Foxtrot Knight, 7/1 Bannister Bell
14/1 Decisive Rebel, 20/1 Johnny Sorrento
33/1 Sunhill Lodge Lady.

This is a 2yo seller over 5f. The Racing Post have
made RICTRUDE favourite and that's because two
runs ago he recorded the best Racing Post Rating
of all of these. The Racing Post frame their betting
forecasts mainly based on their ratings. He may go
on and win but he has raced just three times before
and it makes him the least experienced horse here.

* October has 20 selling races over 5f for 2 year olds
* These 20 winners had the following career starts
* 7 7 5 5 2 8 9 4 4 5 12 6 6 4 4 6 7 8 9 5

* There was a winner with 2 runs
* That horse was a male and not a filly like RICTRUDE
* 19 of the 20 winners had at least 4 starts though
* Horses with under 4 runs are just 1-74
* Past winners of this had 5 9 8 7 6 6 4 11 6 6 runs

Given the choice I'd want experience and much as
RICTRUDE may go and win She doesn't interest me.
SUNHILL LODGE LADY looks outclassed. I want to
avoid JOHNNY SORRENTO as he lacks big enough
numbers and the same applies to DECISIVE REBEL.

* BANNISTER BELL comes from a 6f Nursery
* One winner did that but ran better than him last time
* It's a worry he appears to be regressing

* MILLAR ROSE has the ability to win
* None of the 20 winners came from 5f Claimers

* FOXTROT KNIGHT is absent 80 days
* The 2 longest absent winners had 64 and 78 days
* One had 5 runs just as he did
* Neither came from handicaps though
* That absence is not enough to make him a negative

* AR COLLEEN AINE is a filly from a 6f seller
* The 2011 winner did the same with 8 runs
* AR COLLEEN AINE has 10 but is close enough

Selection

AR COLLEEN AINE 5/2

Each Way



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