No Main Account bet

2 Optional Account bets


Oaks day at Epsom and I have tried to do the card
Justice. I see most of my selections there sporting
rather than anything stronger but I've also spread
my wings elsewhere looking for angles and have
ended up with a 12 preview message I quite like.


Today's 2 Bets


Market Rasen 4.55

TEENAGE DREAM 11/10

Win Bet




Leopardstown 8.35

JOHN CONSTABLE 9/4

Win Bet






O p t i o n a l A c c o u n t

If I was going to have an Epsom account Bet on
the day it would be HI THERE 10/1 Each Way in
the 2.10 pm. My gut feeling is this is too hard so
I'm just going to have a little nibble on it myself.
I am tempted by a lot today. I think the message
has a lot of variety. Choosing the best is difficult.

I considered these as bets


Goodwood 6.00 - BALMORAL CASTLE 5/1 Each Way

Leopardstown 8.05 - TARANA 9/2 Each Way


There are no end of split stake or each way double
options. Maybe there is a bit too much choice here.


In the end I have settled on two bets.

Market Rasen 4.55 -TEENAGE DREAM 11/10 Win Bet

Leopardstown 8.35 - JOHN CONSTABLE 9/4 Win Bet

I do feel a bit naked and exposed with 2 win bets.
I'd have preferred a better price on Teenage Dream
and an extra runner in John Constable's race as it
would open up Win-Win-Each Way Double options.





Horses of Interest List

* I recently gave a list of 10 horses of interest
* They all ran very well from impossible draws last time
* So far we have had 4 of these run an
* 3 of the 4 placed at decent prices and they've all run well
* Today the 5th horse from this list is running

Goodwood 6.35

ALEDAID 4/5







W e d n e s d a y s S u m m a r y

There was no message yesterday as planned and
that just leaves Wednesdays to review and that is
a pleasant task as that was a very decent message
with several winners. It included FRANKTHETANK
the account bet which started June off very nicely.



P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S



E p s o m 1.35

5/2 Thistle Bird, 7/2 Just The Judge, 9/2 Mango Diva
9/2 Odeliz, 8/1 Zurigha, 14/1 Butterfly Mcqueen
16/1 Masarah, 16/1 Melody Of Love, 20/1 Amulet
40/1 Audacia.

* The Princess Elizabeth is Group 3 race for fillies over 8f.
* Past winners had 12 9 14 8 17 15 14 10 5 12 career starts
* THISTLE BIRD won this last year as a 5 year old
* She is now 6 and the only 6yo winner was back in 1995
* That horse had 3 runs this year and Thistle Bird has just 1
* THISTLE BIRD has 18 runs - more than any recent winner
* JUST THE JUDGE ran 50 days ago
* Thats longer than any horse that ran that season
* My main worry is whether this is a prep run
* Connections have long been wanting to try her over 10f + again
* Why drop her in trip just before Royal Ascot
* This race takes 6 seconds less time to run than her last race
* MANGO DIVA has ran once this year
* There were 5 past winners that had 1 run that season
* All 5 winners that did this had Group 1 form before
* MANGO DIVA does not have that
* The drop in trip isn't sure to suit either
* BUTTERFLY MCQUEEN has ran once this year
* She also lacks the backclass past winners doing this had
* MELODY OF LOVE fails the same statistic and may not stay
* ODELIZ hasn't got much to find and is well raced this year
* I don't have a major problem with her
* ZURIGHA comes from a recognised trial race
* The 2007 and 2013 winners came from the same race
* They ran better than she did last time
* ZURIGHA did have excuses and could bounce back
* Not overconfident here. Sporting chance no more.

Selection

ZURIGHA 7/1 + Win Bet

ODELIZ 5/1 Saver Bet



C a t t e r i c k 1.45

6/4 Pearl´s Azinger, 2/1 Fullon Clarets,
7/2 Grey Zeb, 5/1 Ripon Rose, 10/1 Atreus.
16/1 Pearlise.

* This is a 2yo maiden over 5f
* PEARL´S AZINGER has a run
* GREY ZEB is an unraced male
* FULLON CLARETS is an unraced Male

* Catterick has 77 of these races in every month
* I looked at the record of unraced horses
* There were a few fillies that won
* Unraced Male horses are 1-57
* The only winner was Ralphy Boy in this race in 2011
* He won in a photo on fast ground
* Because of the track unraced males do badly here
* Fillies maybe better as they get a sex allowance
* This pushes me towards PEARL´S AZINGER
* His Racing Post Rating on debut was only average
* Not enough to get me overconfident
* RIPON ROSE was only just behind him last time
* He could be the main danger
* Watching the video I preferred PEARL´S AZINGER
* I think he will win but the price doesn't excite


Selection

PEARL´S AZINGER Evens

Win Bet





E p s o m 2.10

5/1 Soviet Rock, 13/2 Air Pilot, 7/1 Tres Coronas
8/1 Clon Brulee, 8/1 Farraaj, 8/1 Resurge, 8/1 Sennockian Star
10/1 Hi There, 12/1 Aussie Reigns, 12/1 Charles Camoin
12/1 Gworn, 14/1 Salutation.

* This is a Class 2 Handicap over 10f
* SENNOCKIAN STAR - Not keen on his last run
* Not as an exposed 4yo thrashed last time out
* I think he has the worst draw and a tough handicap mark
* TRES CORONAS placed in this year off a rating of 89
* Today off 104 he faces a stiff task
* AIR PILOT comes from a 12f maiden
* No 4yo came from 12f without at least 6 starts
* AIR PILOT only has 3 career starts
* From a Maiden this may be too much
* RESURGE is older than any similar winner aged 9
* AUSSIE REIGNS is 4 and absent 49 days
* He looks exposed to overcome that and a mark of 104
* SALUTATION is 4 and drops down from 12f
* Only 1 horse aged 4 managed that with 14 + runs
* That horse won last time out and he didn't
* GWORN is 4 up in distance with an absence
* The only 4 year olds doing that had under 7 runs
* GWORN with 14 runs isn't like a winner
* CHARLES CAMOIN is unsafe as an unexposed 6yo
* Especially one without a run in over 6 weeks
* I ran a few Sire Statistics showing the following
* Records over 10f + in Class 2 + when Softer than Good
* The horses that failed from unproven sires were these
* SALUTATION - GWORN - AUSSIE REIGNS
* Almost all winners were quite lightly raced that year
* I don't want more than 4 runs in the previous 90 days
* Complicated statistic but it raises doubts about these
* TRES CORONAS - SENNOCKIAN STAR - AUSSIE REIGNS

Shortlist


* CLON BRULEE - His 106 day absence puts me off after 16 runs
* There is no real way of knowing how that will affect him

* SOVIET ROCK - No serious issues with his profile

* FARRAAJ is a lightly raced 5yo
* There were 2 winners with at least 7lbs less weight
* I like his profile just worried he has a few pounds too much

* HI THERE interested me the most at the prices
* He has one of the safest profiles
* Ran well here 2 runs ago when hampered
* He had a very bad draw last time at York
* His previous 5 races have seen claimers riding him
* Ryan Moore takes over and I can see him running a big race

Selection

HI THERE 10/1

Each Way





E p s o m 3.20

9/4 Abseil, 8/1 Dance And Dance, 8/1 Llanarmon Lad
8/1 Velox, 10/1 Farlow, 10/1 Fury, 12/1 Angelic Upstart
14/1 Tigers Tale, 16/1 Busatto, 16/1 Red Avenger
16/1 Vainglory, 20/1 Henry The Aviator, 20/1 Spirit Of The Law
25/1 Brocklebank, 25/1 Jacob Cats, 25/1 Trail Blaze.

* This is a 0-96 handicap over an extended 8f
* There are a few issues we have to consider first of all
* ABSEIL - We need to know whether to oppose him or not
* He is a 4 year old with 3 career starts all this season
* He last ran in a handicap within the last few weeks
* Horses with his profile had a W L W L profile
* ABSEIL should be seen as a positive

* TRAIL BLAZE is on my "Horses of Interest List"
* He doesn't apply today as I stipulated different conditions
* I wanted a small field and a lower class race
* TRAIL BLAZE is 0-15 in this class and hasn't won with 12 + runners
* I also worry about his Draw in Stall 16
* Since 2007 Epsom have had 23 races over 1m114y with 10 + runners
* Horses drawn 12 or higher have a 1-46 record
* TRAIL BLAZE is not for me drawn 16
* FURY is drawn 15 and that is a concern
* I looked at horses aged 6 or more with 1 run that season
* There is a 3-46 record and all 3 were beaten under 2 lengths last time
* FURY was beaten over 9 lengths and is not close enough to a winner
* FURY is clearly well treated today
* My angles say look elsewhere
* My Draw stats also raise concerns so he is rejected
* ANGELIC UPSTART has a tough draw in Stall 14
* I didn't see enough to overlook the draw
* Not when on a career high mark and unproven in this class
* LLANARMON LAD - Stall 13 may not be helpful
* I looked at last time out 5yo winners like him
* None won with under 14 previous races
* LLANARMON LAD only has 6 runs and is not like a winner
* JACOB CATS has a weak draw and is hard to fancy
* BROCKLEBANK - Not for me in a field as big as this
* He's never won in the class or off his weight
* Horses aged 7 or more are 2-132 in all similar 8f handicaps
* VAINGLORY has to go as a 10 year old
* DANCE AND DANCE is older than ideal aged 8
* He hasn't won in almost 2 years now
* He did win this in 2011 but that was 3 years ago
* He is only 1-17 in this class anyway
* RED AVENGER - I needed a better last run
* HENRY THE AVIATOR also needed a better last run
* BUSATTO - No 4yo like him won after such a poor recent run
* VELOX is 4 and drops down in trip
* There were winners that did that bit none like him
* None of them had 1 run this season as he does
* I looked at exposed 5 year olds in similar races down in trip
* The only winners had at least 3 runs that season
* SPIRIT OF THE LAW only has two
* TIGERS TALE has that same profile and 3 runs this year
* TIGERS TALE comes out quite well
* FARLOW is 6 and comes from a 7f race
* With 4 runs this season he is just about shortlistable
* He does have a career high mark though
* He is also 0-10 in this Grade as well

Shortlist

* I can live with only 3 profiles
* ABSEIL - TIGERS TALE - FARLOW
* I would expect ABSEIL to win
* I will stake this to £10

£6 Win ABSEIL 5/2

£2 Each Way TIGERS TALE 16/1




E p s o m 4.00

11/4 Marvellous, 7/2 Taghrooda, 7/1 Ihtimal, 7/1 Tarfasha
10/1 Marsh Daisy, 12/1 Madame Chiang, 14/1 Volume
16/1 Palace, 20/1 Amazing Maria, 20/1 Honor Bound
25/1 Anipa, 33/1 Dazzling, 33/1 Lily Rules, 40/1 Regardez
50/1 Inchila, 66/1 Momentus, 100/1 Island Remede.

The first thing I noticed about this years Oaks was that
MARVELLOUS is well clear on all Racing Post Ratings.
She has just recorded a 119 winning the Irish guineas
and if you look at the best figures anything else did in
any of their previous races you find a 113 and 111 both
done by IHTIMAL. On these ratings MARVELLOUS will
be very hard to beat. Her problem will be drawn two.

* Epsom 12f races with 11 + runners
* There have been 37 of these races since 2006
* Horses drawn 1-2 or in the lowest 2 stalls were 0-74

The last horse to win from Stall 1-2 was Eswarah 1995
in the Oaks. That was a very weak renewal and there
were several non stayers or track haters that year so
it clearly is a big problem to be drawn 2. Thats a big
problem for MARVELLOUS but her rating edge is big.

I must avoid MADAME CHIANG from Stall One. I can't
bet AMAZING MARIA absent 286 days. PALACE might
not stay this far on pedigree. She has also had 4 runs
this season which is highly unorthodox. You have to
go back many years to find a horse winning when so
well raced that year. With VOLUME I don't like a draw
as wide as 17 and there must be a stamina doubt too
and as she was beaten in a 3yo handicap just 2 races
ago I have worries about her class. HONOR BOUND is
rejected. Not keen she took 3 runs to win her maiden
and she is well behind on the numbers.

* IHTIMAL - 3 runs this season is not a positive
* It would worry me she has as many as 9 previous runs
* The last 16 winners all had 7 or fewer runs
* IHTIMAL has to come up from a mile with 9 runs
* Thats going to be tough when you consider this
* The 10 winners all came from 10f-11f races
* As a small horse he may not have much improvement
* IHTIMAL is not safe enough statistically

Shortlist

* MARVELLOUS - Dominant ratings but a bad draw

* TARFASHA - I don't see why she can't win

* TAGHROODA - No strong statistical objections
* She did only beat a 79 rated filly in a slow time last time out

* MARSH DAISY - 3 runs this season is not a positive

We then get down into mind games. Paul Hanagan has
chosen TAGHROODA over TARFASHA. That must count
for something. Paul Hanagan so far has a poor record
with his rides at Epsom so far. Pat Smullen whos riding
TARFASHA has never ridden a winner her before but a
lot of these were not fancied. MARVELLOUS is really a
paradox with the Best Numbers but poor draw dilemma
and Ryan Moore has also questioned a hard recent run
is another danger factor for her. Maybe MARSH DAISY
is the value and the compromise choice. I had a think
about it and decided the best bet was TAGHROODA as
whilst she beat nothing last time that wasn't her fault
and she comes here well drawn and unbeaten having
been touted as a very strong runner in this for weeks.

Selection

TAGHROODA 4/1

Each Way





E p s o m 4.45

4/5 That Is The Spirit, 9/4 Parbold
8/1 Penny Drops, 16/1 Miracle Of Medinah
16/1 Silver Treasure.

* The Surrey Stakes is a 7f Listed race for 3yo's
* Past winners had the following career starts
* 9 6 8 6 6 6 9 6 7 7 7 5 8 5
* Horses with 5-9 previous runs stand out
* THAT IS THE SPIRIT only has 2 runs
* I'm going to oppose here when so inexperienced
* Thats probably the wrong thing to do though
* It's a small field and her numbers are solid
* Horses with 10 or more career starts were 0-19
* MIRACLE OF MEDINAH fails that and is also penalised
* SILVER TREASURE won a 9f maiden last time
* Back to 7f there are obvious concerns
* PENNY DROPS is the lowest rated horse in the race
* She took 5 runs to win a maiden as well
* Horses from Class 2 handicaps like her are just 1-19
* PARBOLD is up in trip but is my selection
* I'm probably wrong to take on the favourite
* My angles push me this way so I will go with him
* It may be an idea to bet him each way with 5 runners

Selection

PARBOLD 5/2

Each Way




M a r k e t R a s e n 4.55

11/8 Teenage Dream, 4/1 Me And Ben, 5/1 Qoubilai
13/2 French Ties, 12/1 Balinroab, 14/1 Tregaro
16/1 Gin Cobbler, 16/1 Prince Des Marais, 25/1 Boric.

This is a 2m 4f Handicap Chase and I would expect
to see last time out winner TEENAGE DREAM going
in again. There are some flaws in his opposition as
well. In 103 similar races in June there were just 2
horses that won absent more than five months and
both were lightly raced 8-9 year olds. FRENCH TIES
is 12 and is absent 290 days and I am opposing him.
ME AND BEN won a handicap chase last time but it
was 50 days ago. Those horses winning handicaps
last time and absent over a month were 0-18. This
puts him in an unsafe place statistically. I think we
should avoid BALINROAB after a poor last run and
I have to side with TEENAGE DREAM here. His last
win 7 days ago showed he was well treated here.
I looked at similar penalised horses in these races
and they finished W 4 W 2 4 W 4 W 3 2 W. He will
be facing much stiffer tasks in the future and this
looks a gilt edge chance to win again. I liked the
fact his big improvement came after his upgrade
in stable. His owner has said the same thing and
reports him to be improving. We have to assume
the track won't be an issue. If not he should win.

Selection

TEENAGE DREAM 11/10

Win Bet




B a t h 5.50

7/2 Lac Sacre, 9/2 Highlife Dancer, 7/1 Ice Apple
15/2 Quadriller, 10/1 Rowlestone Lass, 11/1 Bute Street
12/1 Agapanthus, 12/1 Youm Jamil, 14/1 Thundering Home
14/1 Walter De La Mare, 14/1 Well Owd Mon, 16/1 Glens Wobbly
25/1 Bondi Mist, 33/1 Teutonic Knight.

I haven't time to properly do this big field 13f handicap.
The Racing Post say HIGHLIFE DANCER needs to be a
bit better to win this than he was last time at Yarmouth
but I would question that. He has a very good record
when having a very recent run and comes here after
a 3 day absence. He has won his last 3 races at Bath
as well. With fitness guaranteed he'd be my choice.

Selection

HIGHLIFE DANCER 7/2

Each Way





G o o d w o o d 6.00

4/1 Aldwick Bay, 4/1 Balmoral Castle, 5/1 Automotive
7/1 City Ground, 9/1 Who´s That Chick, 10/1 Hyperlink
10/1 Lady Sylvia, 10/1 Poor Duke, 12/1 Living Leader
12/1 Mcbirney, 33/1 Dreamy Ciara.

This is an Amateur Riders race over 9f. The distance is
a problem as not enough similar races are run over 9f.
I took the view that ALDWICK BAY was unsafe winning
at 12f last time and dropping back 3f. I am against the
long absent HYPERLINK and DREAMY CIARA. There is
weakness is WHO´S THAT CHICK and LADY SYLVIA as
mares that are coming from 7f races to 9f races. There
is weakness in CITY GROUND and POOR DUKE coming
from the same selling race 55 days ago. That said this
is a strange race and CITY GROUND could still go well.
I liked LIVING LEADER's recent run but he has recently
been sold cheaply to a trainer who hasn't had a winner
before. AUTOMOTIVE makes much sense on paper and
has won an Amateur race here. This horse can't be hit
with a whip and is a bit quirky and a lack of backclass
puts me off him. I think there are less stressful choices.

* MCBIRNEY - I would keep him on side
* Not sure at all if the track or distance will suit him
* Has a chance but he is hard to read

* BALMORAL CASTLE won this last year
* He is my choice to follow up last years win
* I don't think he has been fit so far this year
* If he gets fast ground he could win it again

Selection

BALMORAL CASTLE 5/1

Each Way





G o o d w o o d 6.35

11/8 Aledaid, 8/1 Belle Fille, 9/1 Geological
10/1 Able Mate, 10/1 Jungle Cat, 10/1 Maraakib
10/1 Sixty, 12/1 Harlequin Striker, 14/1 Kingsbridge
16/1 Best Endeavour, 33/1 Chilworth Bells
33/1 Foylesideview, 33/1 Pink Ribbon.

* This is a 2yo maiden over 6f
* ALEDAID is likely to start at shade of odds on
* He is on my horses on interest list

* ALEDAID has ran once before
* He was made favourite in a 16 runner Newbury maiden
* It was asking a lot to win from Stall 2 an impossible draw
* I really liked that run and no surprise if he won

The problem here is you don't know what your up against.
ALEDAID has an unraced stablemate against him among a
lot more you can't read. I have used an interesting statistic
that shows unraced 2 year olds by Dark Angel have awful
records over 6f or more so I hope Maraakib loses to keep
that statistic going. There was some quite money yesterday
for Chilworth Bells which illustrates there might be hidden
strength in depth here. I can't know what I am up against
but I'd find it hard to oppose ALEDAID after his debut run.

Selection

ALEDAID 4/5

Win Bet




L e o p a r d s t o w n 8.05

15/8 Eye Of The Storm, 7/2 Tarana, 4/1 Venus De Milo
5/1 Missunited, 16/1 Leah Claire, 16/1 Sir Ector, 20/1 Drifting Mist
25/1 Coolibah, 25/1 Shu Lewis, 33/1 Chicago, 50/1 Mindy.

* This is a Listed race over 14f
* Aidan O'Brien runs two horses
* EYE OF THE STORM absent 230 days
* VENUS DE MILO absent 264 days
* They could both need the run today
* He has said VENUS DE MILO will improve for the run
* He says EYE OF THE STORM will improve after injury
* I would rather look elsewhere
* MISSUNITED was 2nd in this last year
* She must have a reasonable each way chance
* TARANA has looked very good this year
* She should love this trip from a staying dam
* A 4yo filly won this race last year with 4 career starts
* TARANA is a 4yo filly with 4 runs as well
* She has every chance of improving past these

Selection

TARANA 9/2

Each Way




L e o p a r d s t o w n 8.35

Evs Sinkal, 2/1 John Constable, 8/1 Streetcar To Stars
12/1 Roheryn, 16/1 Sundara, 25/1 Upper Silesian, 33/1 Zarawi.

This is a Listed race over 12f and the 3 past winners
of this race had 5 6 3 career starts. SINKAL has raced
just once before. I'm sure he is very promising but It
would worry me that one run is quite inexperienced
and he has to defy 55 days off the track as well. The
fact connections have put blinkers on him after only
1 previous run given his connections and pedigree is
a warning sign for me. I like JOHN CONSTABLE best.
He may be a bit soft but his numbers are the best in
the race so far and he has far more experience than
this favourite. SUNDARA could pop in at a big price
if there was a genuine excuse for her last run but I
can't see one. I think JOHN CONSTABLE might win.


Selection

JOHN CONSTABLE 9/4

Win Bet

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