No Main Account Bet

2 Optional Account bets



Sligo 7.20

ROUGH JUSTICE 10/11 +

Win Bet



Brighton 3.20 - HAWKMEISTER 11/8

Leopardstown 8.00 - JOHN CONSTABLE 3/1

Each Way Double



An evening message today makes sense with 8
meetings far too many for a Thursday and with
the problems with the Racing Post Website still
not solved. It's much better now but it was still
not displaying crucial information late into last
night so there is no point in rushing a message
given how many evening cards we have later.

I've not taken on too many difficult races today
and been selective. Still plenty to say but there
are no long previews and much of it is mainly
summarised. A light touch message looking at
about 13 races tonight in just a relaxed format.



O p t i o n a l A c c o u n t


I haven't done many handicaps tonight because
there was far too much to do. This has produced
a lot more shorter priced bets than normal. This
message should have plenty of winners tonight.


I am most confident about these 3 selections

Sligo 7.20 - ROUGH JUSTICE Evens

Leopardstown 8.00 - JOHN CONSTABLE 3/1 Each Way

Southwell 8.05 - BWINDI 4/6 Win Bet


Each Way Doubles

I am tempted by some each way doubles and might
have used the following horses for this kind of bet.


Brighton 3.20 - HAWKMEISTER 11/8

Brighton 3.50 - NOTARISED 2/1

Sligo 7.20 - ROUGH JUSTICE Evens

Leopardstown 8.00 - JOHN CONSTABLE 3/1


To be perfectly honest I have too many options to
stake here with any number of potential bets if we
include some each way doubles. I fancy all these.

In the end Underwhelming as it might be I'm going
to have a short priced win single today. I rarely do
this but I feel ROUGH JUSTICE will win if he runs to
form. Hopefully he will and pay for the second bet.






W e d n e s d a y s S u m m a r y

I kept it short yesterday partly because there were
restrictions with the Racing Post website lacking a
lot of it's normal content. There was a mini preview
which gave a winner but the GO CHARLIE bet lost.
I kept if off the account but he finished only 3rd in
a race where the winner stole the race. I can't say
he was unlucky despite finishing well from off the
pace as we lost 2nd place on the line. He ran well
enough despite a less than ideal ride but he wasn't
unlucky and He would have been better each way.






P r o f i l e s @ P r e v i e w s



B r i g h t o n 3.20

11/8 Hawkmeister, 13/8 Lear´s Rock
14/1 Diamond Runner, 14/1 Percy Veer
20/1 Arthur´s Way

* This is a 2yo maiden just short of a Mile

HAWKMEISTER is my choice to beat LEAR´S ROCK
simply because he has more experience with 3 runs.
There won't be much in it. 5 similar races here show
the winners having 2 2 3 1 0 previous runs and if we
look at 8f Brighton maidens in July to September we
find once raced horses like LEAR´S ROCK are 1-27 in
10 of these races. Horses like HAWKMEISTER with 3
runs were 3-12 and when beaten under 10 lengths on
their latest start had a 3-6 record. One of those won
the 2012 renewal of this race and I'd prefer 3 runs.

Selection

HAWKMEISTER 6/4

Win Bet


Given the non runners and just 5 horses left there is
a good case for using HAWKMEISTER 6/4 in an each
way double with something like John Constable 8.20.




B r i g h t o n 3.50

If I had to choose one in this 12f handicap I probably
would have to go with the favourite NOTARISED. His
profile as a 3yo with 11-13 runs and a recent run did
make some appeal. So far 5 tried and 2 succeeded
with this profile. He is no world beaten but he has a
79 rating and has several Racing Post Ratings before
that you would imagine are better than his handicap
mark. A bit short at 2/1 but the recent run could be a
help and NOTARISED does look the safe option here.

Selection

NOTARISED 2/1




H a y d o c k 4.10

4/1 Duke Cosimo, 11/2 Arctic Feeling, 6/1 Bop It
6/1 Compton Park, 8/1 Constantine, 8/1 Rasaman
12/1 Ambitious Boy, 14/1 Corporal Maddox
14/1 Go Go Green, 14/1 Supersta.

This is a trappy 6f handicaps and having run
the profiles these are the negative I'd oppose

Compton Park - Ambitious Boy - Rasaman
Supersta - Constantine - Go Go Green

I would go with a split stake bet here

BOP IT 7/2 Win Bet

DUKE COSIMO 10/11 Place Bet




L e o p a r d s t o w n 5.10

7/4 Vert De Grece, 100/30 Hail The Hero
4/1 Curvy, 7/1 Selskar Abbey, 10/1 Dalewari
10/1 Park Rebel, 14/1 Botany Bay, 33/1 Baby Dinnis
33/1 Dancing Duke, 50/1 Mandamus.

* This is a 2yo maiden over 7f
* I could only recommend 2 horses
* VERT DE GRECE or CURVY
* The rest fall down on last runs or breeding issues
* HAIL THE HERO returns a bit too quickly for me
* 5 days after being hammered over a mile worries me
* SELSKAR ABBEY and PARK REBEL are unraced
* All past winners of this race had ran before
* They were all male horses as well

One interesting issue is why CURVY is so weak in the
market when you consider she cost 775,000 guineas
and has raced just once. The compromise bet might
well be CURVY to place and VERT DE GRECE to win.
That's how I'd play it. For those that prefer a simpler
strategy I would go with VERT DE GRECE.




S o u t h w e l l 5.50

4/5 Furiously Fast, 3/1 Keen Move
6/1 Thewaythewindblows, 10/1 Dew Pond
20/1 Hold Firm, 20/1 Tobouggan Run.

Both past winners of this 2yo maiden over 7f had raced
before so KEEN MOVE (2 runs) does have positives given
that the market danger FURIOUSLY FAST has none. That
said the standard KEEN MOVE has set so far is nothing to
get excited about. I looked at FURIOUSLY FAST's sire in
similar races and with unraced 2yo's over this distance
and I get nothing but positives. FURIOUSLY FAST might
well be good enough to win first time. He is my guess.



N e w c a s t l e 6.00

7/4 Supreme Occasion, 9/2 Buccaneers Vault
6/1 Arabian Bride, 6/1 Kylach Me If U Can
6/1 Sakhee´s Return, 10/1 Flatcapper, 10/1 Multiplier.

The issue here in this 7f Nursery is what to do with the
once raced filly SUPREME OCCASION. There is no big
problem at all with once raced fillies but they all had
much longer absences. There could well be an issue
with the fact she has had a recent run only 13 days ago.

* Every month of the year
* Every Nursery run before on Grass and not Sand
* Any distance and any Class
* I looked at fillies that had 1 career start
* Plenty won but those running within 4 weeks are 0-21
* Plenty of these were favourite and strongly fancied

I suppose there could be different reasons why this is
the case. Male horses are fine doing this but none are
fillies. That stops me selecting SUPREME OCCASION
but I don't know how important this statistic is and no
shock if she were to win. There are only 7 runners and
not a nicely framed race. It does requite a guess and I
would argue BUCCANEERS VAULT is the better value.



S l i g o 7.20

Evs Rough Justice, 4/1 Hurry Kitty, 9/2 Vision Du Coeur
7/1 Pay Your Way, 8/1 King Blue, 12/1 Quiet Account
20/1 Balmont Flyer, 66/1 Ginger Quill.

This looks a golden opportunity for ROUGH JUSTICE to
win his first race over hurdles. I think he would win this
easily on 3 of his 5 hurdle runs so far. He is clearly not a
problem free horse and has disappointed twice before.
He is well placed here and may not have to break sweat.

* QUIET ACCOUNT looks beatable
* His Sire has only so far produced low quality horses
* His record with his offspring in Class 4 or higher is 0-45
* This horse shouldn't win if the favourite runs his race
* VISION DU COEUR should also find the favourite too strong
* Sets a reasonable standard but it is below the level I want
* HURRY KITTY may win but I avoid horses like her
* Mares from Bumpers rarely win races like this
* HURRY KITTY also cost just £450 as a 3 year old in 2012

* HURRY KITTY is a 5 year old sired by High-Rise
* Look at horses aged 4-5-6 sired by High-Rise
* At 2m 2f and more they were 0-58
* On Good to soft or softer they were 0-89
* High-Rise has his best record with 7-8 year olds

* KING BLUE has stamina to prove
* ROUGH JUSTICE is the only possible bet
* Anything around evens would be good value

Selection

ROUGH JUSTICE Evens

Win Bet



S o u t h w e l l 7.35

11/4 Rocked The Boat, 3/1 Cayjo, 4/1 Aryizad
11/2 Yasir, 6/1 Steuben, 14/1 Shirocco Passion
16/1 Master Dan, 16/1 Red Pilgrim
25/1 Princeofthedesert.

* This is a 12f handicap for 0-70 rated horses

There is a fascinating gamble on STEUBEN who is
very sexy. He is 8 years old and hasn't raced in 653
days but Jonny Murtagh trains him in Ireland and
sends him here with some serious backclass. This
is a trainer that has to be respected. STEUBEN is
now odds on with every bookmaker and although
you can get 11/8 on Betfair it's woefully short odds.

The following statistic does interest me about him.

* Every handicap in August
* Any distance in Class 4 or lower
* Horses aged 8 or more
* Absent more than 3 months
* There was a horrific 1-234 record
* The only winner (Peter Island)
* He only won a 5 runner Brighton Sprint

There were a few that managed to win in a higher
grade than this and STEUBEN does have positives
and faces some horses with dodgy profiles but the
clear message from these stats are he shouldn't be
considered for selection and has to be a negative.
The problem is what you have on your side to beat
him. ARYIZAD and ROCKED THE BOAT both have a
long absence. YASIR is only a cheap type. CAYJO'S
clearly respected from a good stable but just 3 runs
from an 8f maiden is not a very safe profile either.
I wouldn't be as confident about opposing STEUBEN
now but statistically I have to oppose him and some
others so I'll reluctantly go with a split stake bet.

ARYIZAD 8/1 Win Bet

CAYJO 11/8 Place Bet



S l i g o 7.50

11/4 Give Me A Break, 7/2 Ellie Mia
4/1 Dazzling Susie, 11/2 Caim Hill, 7/1 Oscar Buzz
9/1 Kilcarry Bridge, 12/1 Dawerann, 14/1 Malt Master.

I have big problems with ELLIE MIA as a mare
entering a handicap hurdle having just won a
maiden hurdle. The presence of CAIM HILL an
awkward type hard to read stops me from being
too confident about GIVE ME A BREAK winning.

The available evidence suggests that she might
have 12lbs in hand. GIVE ME A BREAK looks an
interesting bet. CAIM HILL would worry me the
most and is the main danger but she is the bet.

Selection - GIVE ME A BREAK




L e o p a r d s t o w n 8.00

3/1 Stocktons Wing, 7/2 John Constable
5/1 Wandering Star, 6/1 Massini´s Trap
13/2 Cassells Rock, 13/2 Money Spider
12/1 False Economy, 16/1 Ri An Domhnaigh.

* This is a 2m handicap for 0-83 rated horses
* STOCKTONS WING ran well last time and is decent
* I just can't have him in this race tonight
* I think there is a stamina doubt sired by Jeremy
* This sires runners over 12f or more are just 1-49
* The longest distance winner he had was over 14f
* Is STOCKTONS WING going to get home on soft ground
* Especially off topweight as well over a trip as far as 2m
* No horse by Jeremy has stayed this far well enough to win
* STOCKTONS WING has only raced once since April as well
* Somewhere there is a good each way bet here
* WANDERING STAR is a mare absent 291 days
* Not a good profile and no winners like her
* MONEY SPIDER really is a faster ground horse
* FALSE ECONOMY looks far from certain to stay
* RI AN DOMHNAIGH could be a long way from fitness
* MASSINI´S TRAP doesn't feel a safe choice
* Not well beaten only 10 days ago

Shortlist

* CASSELLS ROCK has fewer concerns than most

* JOHN CONSTABLE is interesting but he could lack guts
* A Thrashing 2 runs ago was blamed by going lame
* Well beaten last time was blamed by being hampered
* He was hampered but far from certain he'd have won
* The fast ground could have been against him
* Surely this 2m trip is what he needs
* He is a Full brother to this years Ascot Gold Cup winner
* JOHN CONSTABLE could destroy these
* Equally he could be soft and throw this chance away
* I think he must be the selection

Selection

JOHN CONSTABLE 3/1

Each Way





S o u t h w e l l 8.05

13/8 Bwindi, 7/2 Little Bruv, 9/2 Moving Waves,
11/2 Ofelia, 10/1 Buy Out Boy, 12/1 Deja Bougg
14/1 Prince Of Islay.

* This is a 3yo handicap over 14f
* There are only 15 similar races in August
* I looked at every runner in every race at Southwell today
* I looked at the record of every sire on this surface
* The worst record in any race was LITTLE BRUV
* His sire runners here are just 1-75
* I couldn't risk LITTLE BRUV first time on the surface
* He also fails 1 statistic as he comes down from 2m
* In 15 similar races horses doing this are 0-27
* MOVING WAVES is weak as a filly from 10f
* BUY OUT BOY also comes from 10f and looks unsafe
* PRINCE OF ISLAY hasn't shown nearly enough
* DEJA BOUGG hasn't shown nearly enough
* BWINDI is an Irish Raider
* Far and away the safest profile in my view
* He's the only horse I could consider betting

Selection

BWINDI 4/6

Win Bet



L e o p a r d s t o w n 8.30

4/5 A Greater Force, 11/4 Cailini Alainn
4/1 King Schultz, 8/1 Thunder Zone, 33/1 West Montan
50/1 Dat´s The Plan, 66/1 Chatterton.

* This is a 12f maiden race
* KING SCHULTZ has to be a negative
* Horses sired by Bahamian Bounty usually don't stay
* Their record running over 12f or more are just 1-121
* 12 of soft ground may be too far for KING SCHULTZ
* I'd oppose him in a match bet

I wouldn't want to try to call the winner. I'm tempted
by CAILINI ALAINN but not sure a run that recently is
helpful for a once raced filly. She is a Neutral profile.
A GREATER FORCE is unraced but noticeably weak in
the betting. You can always get an unraced A O'Brien
Horse beaten as he can leave them short of work. It's
risky but the unraced THUNDER ZONE 5/1 could be a
good choice to win first time out. I think the right bet
is to oppose the doubtful stayer and the O'Brien horse
and go for a split stake bet on the other two 3yo's.

Selection

THUNDER ZONE 7/2 - Half your stake to win

CAILINI ALAINN 5/4 - Half your stake to win




Newcastle 8.45

9/4 Madrasa, 5/2 Sergeant Pink
9/2 Authentication, 11/2 Musikhani, 9/1 Gioia Di Vita
10/1 Mafeteng, 16/1 Thundering Cloud.

* This is a 14f handicap.
* SERGEANT PINK has a weak profile
* Not keen he won over 11f and comes out again quickly
* I wanted to oppose him and bet around him
* MADRASA has a good safe profile that I liked
* AUTHENTIFICATION can't be ruled out either
* I think the bet is a win bet and saver

Selection

MADRASA 3/1 Win Bet

AUTHENTIFICATION 7/2 Saver


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