No Main Account bet

1 Optional Account bet



Today's Bet

Ascot 3.45 - PEARL SECRET 10/1 Each Way

Ascot 3.45 - HOT STREAK 4/1 Saver Bet



Staking and Price Guide

* Todays Bet is Each Way with a Saver as well
* For clarity I will stake it to a £10 Stake
* £4 Each Way on Pearl Secret
* £2 Win on Hot Streak


Pearl Secret 10/1 - Bet 365 Skybet SpBet VC PPower
Pearl Secret 10/1 - Boyles Stan J Betfair 888Sport





O p t i o n a l A c c o u n t


First day of the Royal Meeting. It may look tough
today but this is a picnic compared to later on in
the week. Happy enough with the message. Just
need plenty of luck so lets us see how we get on.

I'm doing 5 Ascot races. I never do the last race
on the Tuesday. Later in the week I will look at
other meetings but I need to stay at Ascot today.




Today's Bet

Ascot 3.45

PEARL SECRET 10/1 Each Way

HOT STREAK 4/1 Saver Bet


A lot of people are going to presume this horse
can't win on the ground and that he is held by
Hot Streak. I want the saver on Hot Streak as it
is affordable but I think I've made a smart case
for this horse and I think he is the best value in
the race. I can also add this little extra statistic.

* The Kings Stand Since 1998
* Horses aged 5 or 6
* Coming from the Temple Stakes
* Beaten under 3 lengths in that race
* Having 2-3-4 runs that season
* Starting under 16/1
* 5 horses ran in this race with the above profile
* These 5 horses finished 8 W W 3 W
* PEARL SECRET has this profile

1998 Bolshoi 10/1 - 8th
2001 Cassandra Go 8/1 - WON
2010 Equiano 9/2 - WON
2012 Sole Power 8/1 - 3RD
2013 Sole Power 8/1 - WON


I was happy with the bet even before I found this
last minute angle. I think I missed this statistic in
past years as the Temple Stakes has been run at
different tracks. May be nothing but its interesting
and helps to show todays bet up in a good light.




A s c o t S e l e c t i o n s


Ascot 2.30
TORONADO 4/5
Win Bet


Ascot 3.05

ADAAY 5/1 Each Way
WAR ENVOY 11/2 Saver


Ascot 3.45

PEARL SECRET 10/1 Each Way
HOT STREAK 4/1 Saver Bet


Ascot 4.20
NIGHT OF THUNDER 5/2
Win Bet


Ascot 5.00

VILLA ROYALE 16/1 Win Bet
BROCKWELL 16/1 Each Way






M o n d a y 's S u m m a r y

I feel we had a very smart bet yesterday and it was
frustrating only to break level with ROGUE DANCER
as he never looked like losing our money and was
looking comfortable as he traded at odds on before
just finding an Irish Raider beating him. I was very
pleased I went each way. I wasn't going to but the
race was weak and we had 4 places and that very
enticing. Worth keeping an eye on him but the cat
is out of the bag now. A clever bet but unrewarded.



P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S



A s c o t 2.30

Queen Anne Stakes (Group 1)
(Straight course) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 1m

10/11 Toronado, 3/1 Verrazano, 6/1 Soft Falling Rain
10/1 Tullius, 14/1 Anodin, 33/1 Mull Of Killough
33/1 Side Glance, 40/1 Producer, 66/1 Glory Awaits
100/1 Ansgar.

This years race isn't very competitive and it sees the
return of TORONADO who is rated at least 5lbs higher
than the others. I looked at all 4yo debutants like him
and found the 1994 and 1997 winners won it first time
out with 7 and 10 runs and as TORONADO has 8 races
I don't see any reason why he shouldn't win this race.

Older horses aged 6 or more last won this in 1976 so
it is not easy to fancy these horses and this race does
not produce many shocks. I'd stay with 4-5 year olds.

* SOFT FALLING RAIN - I don't like the 80 day break
* I have my doubts he will stay the mile here as well

* VERRAZANO offer obvious each way prospects
* He's only raced once on Grass before in the Lockinge
* That's a good trial race and he is likely to improve

The issue is whether to commit to TORONADO as he's
Class horse and most likely winner or oppose him and
look each way for a better priced bet. There is a third
option with a Win & Place split stake bet. TORONADO
should win and is my selection and TILLIUS can fight
out the places with VERRAZANO. I prefer TORONADO.

Selection

TORONADO 10/11

Win Bet






A s c o t 3.05

4/1 War Envoy, 9/2 Adaay, 11/2 The Wow Signal
8/1 Kool Kompany, 10/1 Cappella Sansevero, 10/1 Justice Good
14/1 Portamento, 16/1 Dr No, 20/1 Bossy Guest, 20/1 Kasb
20/1 Kodi Bear, 25/1 Cock Of The North, 25/1 Jungle Cat
33/1 Angelic Lord, 40/1 Prophesize, 50/1 Case Statement.

The Coventry Stakes always has some strong trends
but almost too many of them and invariably we get
a winner that busts one of them. For example there
was a bias against horses Foaled in the second half
of April or later and that lasted 24 years until the last
two winners both won as very late foals. Things can
change in this kind of race. So can the Draw and it
really is a case of hoping the right statistics stay safe.

* I like last time out winners like 29 of the last 30 winners
* I like horses that started 4/1 or shorter on their previous run
* Those that did not do this had a 1-175 record
* I do NOT like low Racing Post Ratings last time out
* Look at the Racing Post Rating all recent winners had
* This was the Rating they recorded on their pre Ascot run
* 82 105 107 99 97 99 95 100 101 90 86 88 90 104 109 76 96
* 15 of the last 17 winners recorded ratings of at least 86
* 16 of the last 17 winners recorded ratings of at least 82
* I do NOT like horses coming from Class 5 or Class 6 races
* Horses doing that in the last 24 years had a 0-68 record

PROPHESIZE and ANGELIC LORD don't have the numbers
and they come from Class 5-6 as do both JUNGLE CAT and
DR NO and CASE STATEMENT's ratings are simply too low.

* I want a last time winner starting under 4/1 last time
* The following horses do not match this profile
* BOSSY GUEST - COCK OF THE NORTH - KASB - KODI BEAR

* WAR ENVOY the favourite also fails that
* He was only 3rd on his latest start
* He is clearly dangerous to rule out from Aidan O'Brien
* Being beaten last time may not apply as much to him
* That's because he lost in a Listed race not a maiden
* Statistically WAR ENVOY is a Neutral

WAR ENVOY was beaten by KOOL KOMPANY last time but
I fancy WAR ENVOY to beat him today. For starters he is a
lighter raced horse. WAR ENVOY had the longer absence
of the pair and his trainer admitted he may not have been
fit enough. WAR ENVOY may well now improve past him.

* PORTAMENTO won last time out
* I thought he won a soft race last time out
* I had his only serious rival as a big negative that day
* PORTAMENTO may not have a great draw
* He is only "Joint 12th" best on Racing Post Ratings

* THE WOW SIGNAL was impressive winning his only start
* My problem with him is that he drawn 1 here
* Only 1 of the last 11 Coventry winners were drawn 1-2-3
* I think that draw must detract from his chance
* He is only 5th best on Racing Post Ratings
* He only won a 5 runner race and not on a Grade 1 track

* JUSTICE GOOD has 4 runs which is a worry
* This race very rarely goes to a horse so exposed
* The 1990 winner had 4 runs but was different
* He won just 5 days beforehand
* He had Racing Post Ratings of 113 and 117 going into it
* JUSTICE GOOD only has a 95 rating after 4 runs
* I looked at every winner that had 3 or more previous runs
* There were 4 winners doing this
* These 4 had Racing Post Ratings of 117 106 101 105
* JUSTICE GOOD has achieved only 95 in 4 runs so far
* I have to wonder if that is too low a standard
* I can't give him the benefit of the doubt drawn 2

* CAPPELLA SANSEVERO comes here W W W
* He comes out Top of the Racing Post Ratings
* Statistically he has one problem to overcome
* Since 1986 only 5 winners came from a 5f race
* These all had 1 or 2 career starts
* Those that had more than 2 runs were 0-26
* This means no past winner was like him

* ADAAY is obviously smart and a danger
* Sold recently for £240k he should go close here

Shortlist

WAR ENVOY

ADAAY

Selection

ADAAY 5/1 Each Way

WAR ENVOY 11/2 Saver




A s c o t 3.45

King´s Stand Stakes
(British Champions Series & Global Sprint Challenge)
(Group 1) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) 5f

7/2 Hot Streak, 4/1 Shea Shea, 4/1 Sole Power
7/1 Pearl Secret, 10/1 Guerre, 12/1 Ahtoug, 14/1 Steps
16/1 Rex Imperator, 20/1 Medicean Man, 25/1 Es Que Love
25/1 Jack Dexter, 40/1 Ancil, 40/1 Justice Day, 40/1 Take Cover
50/1 Stepper Point, 66/1 Caledonia Lady, 66/1 Green Door.

* The King's Stand is a Group 1 sprint over 5f
* Not a suitable race for a big preview anymore
* Many recent foreign winners complicate my angles
* We also have no 4 year olds taking part this year
* There are some angles I still want to follow

* Look at the Draw since 2012 at Ascot over 5f with 11 + runners
* There were 19 races and the winners came from these stalls
* 11 14 15 8 5 10 11 8 16 14 28 18 18 14 12 12 5 18 7
* Horses drawn 1-2-3-4 have a 0-70 record in these 19 races

* SHEA SHEA has this problem as he has drawn stall 2
* SHEA SHEA was a good 2nd in last years race
* This year he is drawn lower in Stall 2 and that worries me
* 7 of the last 8 winners were drawn 12 or higher
* JACK DEXTER was 4th in last years race
* He wouldn't be my first choice from Stall 3

* The last horse aged 8 or more to win was back in 1979
* MEDICEAN MAN has to go aged 8 absent 80 days

* GUERRE and REX IMPERATOR have just 1 run this year
* 10 of the last 11 winners had 3-4 runs that season
* Thats the number of runs since January 1st that year
* 4 4 8 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 Fto 2 2 4 3 3 3 2 2 Fto Fto 3 3
* None of the winners had 1 run that season

* ES QUE LOVE only has 2 runs this season
* As an exposed 5yo drawn on the outside I dislike him

* HOT STREAK is 3 and has 2 runs this season
* Horses aged 3 are 5-112 since 1988
* 3 year old winners had 9 4 7 3 6 career starts
* 3 year old winners had 3 0 4 0 4 runs this season
* We haven't yet had a 3yo win with 1-2 runs that year
* Hard to know just how much emphasis to place on that

* AHTOUG - One of the hardest to read absent 80 days
* I don't think he is tempting enough
* He was only running in handicaps last Summer
* Thats at a time when others were running in this Group 1

Shortlist

* STEPS has a recent run and a good draw
* It is not a good sign he comes from a handicap
* Horses from handicaps are only 1-39 in this race
* He is trying to do the same as 1999 winner Mitcham
* He came from the same race but was a lightly raced 3yo
* STEPS had 30 runs before he ran in a Pattern race
* 2 Listed wins and a Group 3 defeat is hardly the standard needed
* This is a Group 1 and he has no Group 1-2 form
* To be fair to him he is in the form of his last
* His 2 best ever Racing Post Ratings came on his last 2 runs
* That shows he could be getting better as a 6 year old
* I can see both positives and negatives for him
* My Angles say No - and he could find others too far ahead

* SOLE POWER has a 3 8 W record in this race
* He won last year and the ground seems suitable
* My main issue with him is he is absent 45 days
* Thats over 3 weeks longer than he had before this last year

* HOT STREAK is 3 and should have a big chance
* I think we have to see him as a positive
* Well drawn - in form and 8 runs seems ideal
* I'm going to overlook just 2 runs this year

* PEARL SECRET is an unexposed 5yo
* Ran well last time from a bad draw
* PEARL SECRET was 3rd in this race last year
* That was a great run as a 4yo seasonal debutant
* Horses aged 4 have a very weak record in this race
* That makes last years run even more creditable
* You can argue he is held on his last 2 runs by Hot Streak
* Form lines are often meaningless and he is a big price
* The last 5yo winner had 9 runs and 3 runs that season
* PEARL SECRET also had 9 runs and 3 runs that season

I think PEARL SECRET should be shorter and is not because
he has been beaten by Hot Streak and people feel he might
want softer ground. At the weights he can't be far away from
Hot Streak. He also has his trump card that he has proven he
likes this race when 3rd in last years race. Although I do not
respect the Going Stick if you look at the reading last year it
was significantly faster than is projected to be today and this
weakens the argument against him on the ground. I think we
can have a saver as well on this pair with tied together form.


Selection

PEARL SECRET 10/1 Each Way

HOT STREAK 4/1 Saver Bet




A s c o t 4.25

St James´s Palace Stakes
(British Champions Series) (Group 1)
(Round course) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 1m

Evs Kingman, 9/4 Night Of Thunder
6/1 War Command, 8/1 Toormore, 25/1 Outstrip
33/1 Prince Of All, 40/1 Yuften.

* The St James Palace has just 7 runners this year
* This should be down to any of 4 runners
* I am opposing KINGMAN
* I didn't think he got the mile at Newmarket in the Guineas
* He proved that wrong when he won over 8f in Ireland
* This is a much stiffer test in my view
* I think his stamina will be tested again
* He has had 3 tough races this season as well

* Past winners had the following number of career starts
* 8 4 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 4 9 9 6 6 5 5 6 7 7 7 8 5
* Past winners had the following number of runs that season
* 2 1 2 3 2 2 1 2 3 2 3 2 4 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 2 4 runs that season
* I'd ideally like 4-9 runs and 2-4 that season
* The last 6 and 20 of the last 22 winners had that profile
* WAR COMMAND only has 1 run this season
* That could be his disadvantage against the other big 4
* Two recent winners had 1 run so he can't be a negative
* Should he be first choice though when 3 others have more
* TOORMORE was a bit disappointing in the Guineas
* Bear in Mind he was badly drawn that day
* I could see him running well but the vibes aren't good
* He is the stable 2nd string and their comments are luke warm
* NIGHT OF THUNDER won the 2000 Guineas
* Obviously no reason why he shouldn't win this

Selection

It looks tactical and you couldn't really rule out any of
the main 4 runners. I am against KINGMAN especially
as the shortest priced horse. I could choose any of the
other three. I have to consider TOORMORE has been
rejected by Richard Hughes not that he had any real
choice turning down a Guineas winner. Easy to get it
wrong in this exciting but messy race but at the odds
I am going to side with NIGHT OF THUNDER at 5/2

Selection

NIGHT OF THUNDER 5/2

Win Bet





A s c o t 5.00

Ascot Stakes (Handicap) (CLASS 2)
(4yo+ 0-95) 2m4f

6/1 Perfect Heart, 7/1 Ballinderry Boy, 9/1 Lieutenant Miller
10/1 Suraj, 12/1 Domination, 12/1 Plinth, 12/1 Ray Ward
14/1 Brockwell, 14/1 Villa Royale, 16/1 Sir Graham Wade
16/1 Sohar, 20/1 Agreement, 20/1 Another Cocktail
20/1 Body Language, 20/1 Gabrial´s King 20/1 Sizzler
25/1 Asbaab, 25/1 Waterclock, 40/1 Sardinia.

* The Ascot Stakes is a 2m 4f handicap

* I will start with the Draw and the last 3 renewals
* These are the draws of the 1st 2nd 3rd 4th in the last 3 years
* 16 8 17 7 7 10 15 16 10 18 14 9

* Since the stalls were renumbered in 2011 no low draws placed
* No horse drawn 1-2-3-4-5-6 has finished 1-2-3-4 in the last 3 years

* Lets do a quick experiment on Sire Statistics
* I looked all every sire in this race
* Looked for their offspring that won under these circumstances
* When racing over 2m 2f or more on the flat in Class 3 or higher
* Some interesting results came out of those

* Horses by Hernando are 0-36 over 18f + in Class 3 or better
* SIZZLER is by Hernando and there could be a stamina risk

* The Sire Galileo is 0-46 with runners under these circumstances
* That is a surprise given how invincible he is as a Sire
* I wouldn't be completely persuaded by the Galileo stat
* He has had a Grade 1 winner in France over 2m 4f
* These statistics are based on British records so there is a doubt
* I will just be interested to see how they do
* SURAJ - AGREEMENT - RAY WARD are sired by Galileo

* There are only 3 Sires that had winners in this System
* Montjeu - Singspeil and Hurricane Run
* This leads to the following horses as "most suited" to trip/class
* PLINTH - GABRIAL´S KING - BROCKWELL


* Horses aged 4 and 5 have the best record
* They have won 16 of the last 19 renewals
* Past winners had the following absences
* 33 25 17 68 38 17 26 24 13 10 4 42 42 30
* Recent winners had the following runs that calendar year
* 1 3 5 2 2 3 2 3 4 3 6 5 1 1

* Past winners had these Flat + National Hunt runs
* 21 19 26 15 15 45 13 10 17 9 17 10 23
* Past winners had these Flat only runs

* 15 13 7 15 14 22 13 7 17 9 12 10 14
* All recent winners had at least 7 runs on the Flat

* Horses coming from 12f or shorter are 0-51
* They go up a Mile in trip and that is a big challenge
* ASBAAB comes from a 12f race
* With 5 runs he would be the least experienced winner
* One poor run this year and he is very hard to fancy
* SARDINIA comes from 12f and has just 6 career starts
* He would be the least experienced winner

* DOMINATION also comes from a 12f race
* He does have several other positives though
* He is capable of winning in this class off his mark
* This 12f statistic will fail at some point
* Could be today with so many doing
* I can't justify selecting him until it does

* BODY LANGUAGE comes from a 12f race
* Not an easy task for a mare lightly raced this season
* She just doesn't look to have the class anyway

* BALLINDERRY BOY comes from a 12f race
* That won't be easy with just 1 run this season
* He has never been in this Class before either
* ANOTHER COCKTAIL comes from a 12f race
* We know horses doing this are 0-51
* With 1 run this year and a difficult absence he's wrong
* RAY WARD comes from 12f which is a negative

* There is another statistic about horses going up in distance
* Horses that come from 14f or shorter have a weak record
* Those with under 3 runs in the previous 3 months were 0-69
* The following horses fail this statistic
* BALLINDERRY BOY - ANOTHER COCKTAIL - RAY WARD
* BODY LANGUAGE - ASBAAB

* WATERCLOCK has just downgraded stables
* Not keen on him having 1 poor run this season
* He's only ever won a maiden before
* I don't like his lack of National Hunt form

* SOHAR is a 6yo Mare
* No mares have won this aged 6 or more in the last 26 years
* She's never won in the class or off this weight before
* Going up two grades in class she is out

* SURAJ was beaten 15 lengths in last years race
* Michael Bell then Nicky Henderson now
* Upgrade in stable but he fails my Sire Stats by Galileo
* This sire is 0-46 with his runners over 18f + in Class 3 or more
* Personally I don't have much faith in that Sire Stat
* Trying to get home won't be easy with 1 run this season
* He hasn't won much and neither of 2 wins came in this class
* I don't see a strong enough case for him

* AGREEMENT - Just 3 runs on the Flat looks inexperienced

* SIR GRAHAM WADE has yet to prove he stays 2m
* I have my doubts he will get as far as 2m 4f
* He has to prove that with a 55 day absence
* That combined with topweight won't be easy

* PLINTH is an Aiden O'Brien 4 year old
* That earns him many points as does his sire Montjeu
* He won a hurdle race last time out
* Coming from a Hurdle race may not be as good idea
* Horses doing that in recent years were poor
* The 2012 winner did it but he was older and the only one
* No 4yo has won this from a hurdle race
* Not sure his Flat form is going to be good enough anyway
* Sexy connections but I'm not convinced

* GABRIAL´S KING may find this too warm
* His best win came off 80 and today he is rated 89
* He has only ever won in Class 4 or lower before
* Asking a lot to win a Class 2 off a career high mark
* This smacks of an afterthought on his 6th run of the year

* LIEUTENANT MILLER is 8 years old
* Since 1988 horses aged 8 or more are just 1-61
* That winner did have a similar absence to his 67 days off
* This 1-61 record is hardly encouraging though
* LIEUTENANT MILLER also has 8lbs more weight than that winner
* Clearly Nicky Henderson/Ryan Moore demand great respect
* LIEUTENANT MILLER was 3rd in this race last year
* He had 3 prep runs last year and just one this year
* He has Stall 20 of 20 not certain to be any help
* Obviously he needs respect but it's not a safe profile

* SIZZLER is sired by Hernando
* His runners over 18f or more in Class 2 or better are 0-36
* There is a stamina doubt and he has just 1 run this season
* Past 4yo winners had 2 3 4 3 5 1 3 2 3 3 2 runs that season
* Only Cover Up (1999) has done it with 1 run this season
* I suppose SIZZLER is not too unlike Cover Up
* I wouldn't completely rule him out even absent 55 days
* Don't think he will win - but I'd like more evidence against him

* PERFECT HEART is 5 and has just 7 career starts
* We know the least experienced winner had 7 runs
* Recent 5 year old winners had 14 15 13 15 8 20 23 runs
* He is quite inexperienced for a horse his age
* He won last time out but that was 55 days ago
* The past 5yo winners had the following days absence
* 33 25 17 17 4 32 41
* PERFECT HEART would be the least experienced 5yo winner
* He would also be the longest absent one if he won
* He looks laid out for this but he is up 2 grades in class
* He doesn't fit the profile of any past 5yo winner
* I looked at his sires (Dalakhani) record
* His runners over 2m 1f + in Class 3 or higher
* They are 0-10 and so far none of these were 1st 2nd or 3rd
* Not a strong angle but means you can't assume stamina
* He could win but he looks beatable to me

Selection

Nothing is without some sort of problem here.
I've decided to split stake the race on this pair.

* BROCKWELL has a reasonable profile
* I love his Sires record in similar races
* Comes from a Good trial race and we know he stays
* He is like previous 5yo winners of this
* There are some reservations about this horse
* Stall 3 may not be a good draw
* BROCKWELL has never won off his current mark
* That doesn't worry me but he is 0-10 so far in this class
* The issue is whether this grade may just be too warm

* VILLA ROYALE is a 5yo mare
* There have been 2 winning mares aged 5
* Both these mares were far less exposed than her
* Both had mush shorter absences as well
* She needs respect from a clever stable
* Especially coming here on the back of a career best
* VILLA ROYALE's best win came off 88 in a Class 3
* Now she faces a mark of 93 in a Class 2
* Needs a career best but I wouldn't rule her out


Split Stake Bet

VILLA ROYALE 16/1 Win Bet

BROCKWELL 16/1 Each Way


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