1 Bet Today

Ascot 2.25

BOURNE 6/1 Each Way

CITIZENSHIP 10/1 Saver Bet


Given how atrocious the ground will be today
on tracks that probably should be abandoned
I do have reservations about giving a bet out.

I decided to go with BOURNE though but don't
expect to see him on the bridle all the way as
he will be under the cosh at times and look a
horse that's struggling and should trade at far
bigger odds. It won't be comfortable to watch
but I think he is the right horse to be with and
he is worth a bet. We can't escape the ground
at the moment so no option but to get on with
it and if this goes wrong we'll get it back soon.
I have to save on CITIZENSHIP as I see him as
the only other horse with a decent profile here.





M e s s a g e H i g h l i g h t s


Details about today's message follow shortly
but I will start with the bets I liked the best.



Today's Best Bet

Ascot 2.25

BOURNE 6/1 Each Way

CITIZENSHIP 10/1 Saver Bet


Many times recently I have opposed BOURNE
but I like him today. Statistically he looks an
interesting bet based on only a small number
of similar races. Weaker angles suggest there
are negatives elsewhere so I am hopeful. The
key for me is that the main reason I opposed
him recently was his Sire's record in a certain
type of race. Whilst he has been failing in the
wrong sort of race the handicappers dropped
him significantly. He is now well treated and
is an experienced lightweight. He gets weight
off inexperienced heavyweights when all the
similar races like this have suggested that it
is better to be with an experienced horse so
I am happy to bet him. Not sure how reliable
he is and there are scopier horses in the race
but on atrocious ground he looks right to me.


Lingfield 3.10 - NAABEGHA 11/2 Each Way

The angles in this race are very tight but these
do point to NAABEGHA winning. Disappointed
he has been backed from 8/1 to 11/2 which has
taken the shine off the bet. I also think this is a
race where the staking's hard. There are a few
different strategies with savers that I looked at
and this may be the better way to play the race.
This problem and the reduced odds are enough
to reject him as a possible bet today. Instead a
mention and a horse that's worth a smaller bet.


M e s s a g e C o n t e n t

The 3 National Hunt fixtures are on Heavy ground
so the usual fun and games. Lingfield is the spine
of the message as the least likely to be called off
and I have added national hunt races around that.

Unusually I am going to start with a Football Bet.
This is a great bet but I'm afraid it wont suit all of
you as it takes some legwork on your part as well.
It's the Chelsea v Manchester United game Sunday.

Today's message doesn't stray much past the flat
card at Lingfield. It is a tough card there but this
was always going to be on and the National hunt
cards are all on desperate heavy ground. There's
a fair case that some should even be abandoned.
It really makes it more of a lottery and my angles
are in danger of being blunted in stupid ground.

I have rejected a lot of the National Hunt and not
all the previews contain a selection. I don't see a
point of guessing just for the sake of it in the mud.
I don't see much I like at Taunton or Haydock and
I have not gone looking for unnecessary previews.



F r i d a y 's R e v i e w

I said earlier in the week that longer heavy
previews may well build confidence before
a race but these do not produce any better
results than short snappier previews. I think
yesterday show's that. I thought yesterday's
message was aesthetically ugly and wasn't
detailed in any way. However results were
brilliant. We went W P W W W from only 5
previews. We didn't have a single loser on
the day. The one bet I put in the top of the
message as my best bet won and produced
a 15/2 winner at Starting Price. That shows
I am reading things very well. It is not that
easy to know what and when to bet so the
people who sat the message out may well
take a bit of comfort that I did that myself !



CHELSEA v MANCHESTER UNITED

* Sunday at 4pm
* This is a bet you should have if you can
* Ladbrokes Betting Shops only
* Maximum Stakes of £25 per person

The selection is simple. In any market on this
game stake £25 on anything you fancy be that
outright winner, correct score or anything else
Ladbrokes allow. My heart says United but my
head says Chelsea but don't listen to me. Just
pick your own bet and this is the reason why.

* Ladbrokes have a Chelsea v Man U coupon
* There is a special offer on this coupon
* Maximum Stakes £25
* If BOTH teams score you get a £25 Free Bet

Therefore whatever you put your £25 on even
if it loses Ladbrokes give you that £25 free bet
if both teams score. I appreciate that may not
happen and Man Utd are short of strikers but
it is a 10/11 chance that both teams score just
looking at Betfair's market on the game. This
gives you a better than 50% chance of getting
that free bet if you don't bet any winner. I am
betting a CHELSEA win safe in the knowledge
that if they score as they should then It means
I either have to win or have to have a free bet.



P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S


L i n g f i e l d 12.15

5/2 Paddy´s Saltantes, 5/2 Yourinthewill
7/2 Sutton Sid, 10/1 Caerwyn
14/1 Standing Strong, 20/1 Blue Deer.

* This is a selling race over 10f
* Only open to horses aged 4-5-6
* There are only 3 of these races in January
* Not much I can go on here statistically
* BLUE DEER - STANDING STRONG are too badly weighted
* YOURINTHEWILL looks unlikely to be fit enough
* Just 1 run since last June leaves him vulnerable
* CAERWYN - I don't want an inexperienced 4yo
* This should be between 2 horses
* SUTTON SID - PADDY´S SALTANTES
* No strong statistical way to split them
* PADDY´S SALTANTES comes out best at the weights
* He has the strongest form for me
* I think he just has the edge in a race I like just two

Selection

PADDY´S SALTANTES 13/8

Win Bet




Ascot 1.15

I turned the race down as too difficult
especially with just 16 similar races in
January. Last time out winners winning
these races were all 7 year olds so this
is a pointer to BALLINVARRIG who may
be worth considering each way. I don't
see a good angle to offer you though.



Ascot 1.50

This is a Graded race for Mares over 3 Miles. There
are only 5 similar races at this time of year and this
tells me to back off. PRIMA PORTA comes up in trip
something no winners did. UTOPIE DES BORDES is
a tiny little thing and I don't look for that especially
on heavy ground. Not sure about CAROLE´S SPIRIT
whose half sister flopped in this race last year. The
two I preferred are MICKIE and HIGHLAND RETREAT.
Maybe some sort of split stake bet is an option but
I don't like the race or it's frame and l am bailing out.

No Selection


L i n g f i e l d 2.00

2/1 Aspirant, 7/2 Ealain Aibrean, 9/2 Skinny Love
11/2 The Doyle Machine, 7/1 Jenny Sparks
10/1 Sandsman´s Girl, 33/1 Bearing Kisses

* This is a 6f selling race for 3 year olds
* January has only 15 of these races
* These 15 races show experience is valuable
* 14 of the 15 winners had 6 or more runs
* Those that did not were just 1-42
* JENNY SPARKS doesn't interest me with 1 run
* BEARING KISSES has 3 runs and a long break
* No fillies won with a break of more than 5 weeks
* BEARING KISSES fails that as well
* SANDSMAN´S GIRL is badly weighted and out of form
* THE DOYLE MACHINE has raced just 5 times
* Lots to prove coming from an Auction Maiden
* I want something with more experience
* SKINNY LOVE is a filly from a 5f race
* Fillies doing this had a weak 1-24 record
* That winner (Cozzie) had 11 previous runs
* EALAIN AIBREAN has the same problem a filly from 5f
* EALAIN AIBREAN has a recent run but also has 11 runs
* She looks the safer of the two and is shortlistable
* ASPIRANT is the class horse on ratings
* Underperformed last time but I'd forgive that
* He was drawn 1 at Lingfield and the race didn't suit
* He probably did too much too early
* Ended up running out of steam in the last furlong
* His opponents last time are far better than these
* If he runs to his rating in his previous 2 runs he wins

Selection

ASPIRANT 13/8

Win Bet



A s c o t 2.25

4/1 The Skyfarmer, 5/1 Get Back In Line
6/1 Minella Forfitness, 7/1 Bourne, 8/1 Citizenship
8/1 Thomas Crapper, 10/1 Imperial Leader
10/1 Knight Of Pleasure, 12/1 Irish Saint
14/1 Kuilsriver.

* This is a Graded Handicap Hurdle just short of 2m 4f
* There are only 7 races like this in January
* Horses aged 5 have won just 1 renewal
* That horse came from a Grade 1 race
* I think you're safer with an older horse
* IRISH SAINT is 5 and wouldn't be as safe as I want
* Not up in distance and running badly last time
* KNIGHT OF PLEASURE is also 5 and rejected
* He was well beaten last time and has just 7 runs
* The 7 winners had 6 16 12 32 20 17 hurdle runs
* That shows this goes to experienced hurdlers
* MINELLA FORFITNESS only has 5 hurdle runs
* I don't want a topweight seasonal debutant like him
* THE SKYFARMER only has 3 hurdle runs
* Not keen on inexperienced horses
* He is up in trip and raised 17lbs for her last win
* GET BACK IN LINE only has 3 hurdle runs
* He fell in one of those and that was last time
* He's had just 1 uncompleted run this season
* IMPERIAL LEADER has 5 hurdle runs
* Thats less than all winners and he has just 1 this year
* Well beaten in that race he may want more
* THOMAS CRAPPER drops from a 3m handicap
* No past winners did that and I'm not convinced
* CITIZENSHIP won last time and is respected
* He is up in class but does have plenty of runs
* BOURNE is an experienced lightweight
* So were the 2010-2011 winners
* He is a well treated horse these days
* I have been opposing BOURNE recently
* If you look at the record of his sire Linamix
* His runners over 2m 5f + in Class 3 or better are 1-76
* None have won in Class 2 or higher over that far
* He failed that statistic in many of his recent races
* I've opposed him in Sires and Systems before
* Last February he won off 132 and twice ran well off 140
* Many runs since then he failed the Sire statistic
* His mark has since dropped to 125 from 140
* He's well treated with a heavy ground win
* He has experience like all past winners
* Although up in class I like his chances

Selection

BOURNE 6/1 Each Way

CITIZENSHIP 10/1 Saver Bet





L i n g f i e l d 2.35

5/1 Valmina, 5/1 Welease Bwian, 6/1 Lujeanie
6/1 Seek The Fair Land, 7/1 Desert Strike
7/1 Queen Aggie, 10/1 Tagula Night, 10/1 Temple Road
14/1 Glastonberry, 14/1 Haadeeth, 25/1 Bapak Muda
25/1 Decision By One.

* This is a 6f handicap for 0-77 rated horses
* I looked at all similar races in January
* DECISION BY ONE is not showing enough
* QUEEN AGGIE - No filly won dropping from an 8f race
* TEMPLE ROAD is out absent 254 days
* DESERT STRIKE won a 5f race last time
* I looked at horses doing this and winning again at 6f
* Any winners doing this were aged 4 or 5
* None aged 6 or more and DESERT STRIKE is 8
* LUJEANIE won a 6f handicap last time
* I looked at horses aged 8 + doing that
* There was a 0-15 record with none winning
* That means I can't match him to a winner
* He could have been better drawn as well
* The odd 7yo managed it but none his age
* BAPAK MUDA is 4 and drops from a 7f race
* Similar horses beaten 10 + lengths were 1-57
* He has far more weight and I don't fancy him

Possibles

* VALMINA won a 6f handicap last time
* I looked at horses aged 7 + doing that
* There were winners but none with his weight
* Those with 9st 3lbs or more were just 1-20
* Career high mark he has work to do
* HAADEETH is a 7yo and has a recent run
* He had plenty to do last time from Stall 1
* His profile is modest at best though
* My reading of it questions his last run
* Not quite convinced he did enough last time
* GLASTONBERRY has a decent profile
* May have been my choice in different circumstances
* GLASTONBERRY has the worst drawn in Stall 12
* Since 2012 in 6f races Stall 12 has a 1-59 record
* She is a Mare on a career high mark
* She has never won in this class before
* Her profile doesn't worry me too much
* More her unproven class and draw

Shortlist

* TAGULA NIGHT is 8 and down in distance
* Horses with his profile had a 2-46 record
* Not impossible to see him winning in this class
* His record in Class 3 or higher is 0-18
* Class 5 is fine but it's not really his time of year

* SEEK THE FAIR LAND has an average profile
* It's shortlistable as he is like a couple of winners

* WELEASE BWIAN has a very competent profile
* Arguably the safest of the lot
* He has gone up 3lbs for getting beaten last time

Selection

If I was staking this to £10 then I'd stake £2 each
on Welease Bwian and Seek The Fair Land and
that still allows us the chance of a decent win if
TAGULA NIGHT makes the most of his class drop.

TAGULA NIGHT 6/1 Win Bet

WELEASE BWIAN 6/1 Saver Bet

SEEK THE FAIR LAND 9/2 Saver



A s c o t 3.00

7/2 Tatenen, 4/1 Renard, 5/1 Theatrical Star
6/1 What A Warrior, 7/1 Bury Parade, 7/1 Grandioso
10/1 Big Fella Thanks, 10/1 Gus Macrae.

I haven't got much to say in this Handicap Chase.
Pricewise go for BIG FELLA THANKS but I have
not been convinced by their argument as he is a
12yo now. I don't want to risk the horses with just
one run this year. Past winners had 1 3 4 2 2 3 4 3
runs that season. TATENEN has 1 and isn't for me.
BURY PARADE has also had effectively just 1 race
this year. I don't like GUS MACRAE exposed and
up in distance. I'm not keen on GRANDIOSO after
pulling up last time. THEATRICAL STAR - RENARD
are each way options. Both have sound chances
without exciting me much. WHAT A WARRIOR is
my best guess. That is all he is really but once or
twice recently I opposed him over 3m given the
record of his sire's runners in similar races and
he may benefit from the drop back in distance.
Not confident. Only a Hunch. WHAT A WARRIOR
is my selection each way in a small stakes race.

Selection

WHAT A WARRIOR 8/1

Each Way




L i n g f i e l d 3.10

9/4 Agerzam, 7/2 Novellen Lad
4/1 Trinityelitedotcom, 8/1 Al´s Memory
8/1 Noble Deed, 10/1 Naabegha, 12/1 Taajub
16/1 Corporal Maddox.

* This is a 6f handicap for 0-90 rated horses
* NOBLE DEED is 4 and comes from a 6f handicap
* He was beaten last time out
* Similar 4 year olds had a 3-36 record
* The 3 winners had 5 21 25 previous runs
* NOBLE DEED has 11 runs which isn't in that range
* Two were far more experienced - One far less so
* I'd have liked a better match than that
* Horses aged 6 or more absent 50 + days are 1-43
* That winner was a 7yo absent 211 days (Sir Nod)
* He had 16lbs less weight than TAAJUB
* He didn't come from a 5f race either
* TAAJUB is 7 and absent 117 days
* I don't like that profile much
* CORPORAL MADDOX was beaten 11 lengths last time
* That was over 7f and horses with similar profiles struggle
* They have a 1-32 record that winner was younger
* I wanted a better profile than that
* There were 15 winners absent a month or more
* None were aged 8 or more
* NOVELLEN LAD is 9 and absent 43 days
* AL´S MEMORY comes from a 7f race
* Several winners did that but none aged 5
* Horses aged 5 doing this were 0-33
* It makes him hard to select
* He has a good recent run though and can't rule him out
* If we take 5 year olds from 7f races
* Those running within 19 days
* Those beaten under 8 lengths last time out
* The full record was 7 3 2 2 11 2 3
* 7 tried none won but 5 placed


* Racing Post Ratings
* Since Jan 1st 2013
* Lingfield 6f races only

95 Agerzam
94 Naabegha
92 Noble Deed
92 Agerzam
92 Al's Memory
90 Novellen Lad
89 Naabegha


Shortlist

* TRINITYELITEDOTCOM is improving and running well
* His numbers suggest he can win off 89
* There are a couple of problems with him
* That makes me see him more as a place option
* TRINITYELITEDOTCOM is a 4 year old
* He comes from a 5f race in the last 2 weeks
* Horses doing this had a 0-13 record in 67 similar races
* They finished 13 8 13 15 7 8 10 9 7 2 12
* TRINITYELITEDOTCOM is not like any winners
* He certainly has the class to win
* There are better profiles in the race though
* He has also never raced at Lingfield before
* I think he will place but I prefer 2 others

* AGERZAM is 4 and won a 6f handicap last time
* Horses with this profile are better lightly raced
* They are better with under 9 runs
* Horses aged 4 doing this with 9 + runs were 0-5
* The 5 horses with 9 + runs finished 6 2 6 3 2
* AGERZAM has 11 runs and isn't quite like a winner
* Enough went close to rate him a serious danger
* He did win with plenty in hand last time out

* NAABEGHA is 7 and comes from a 6f handicap
* He was beaten last time and has a recent run
* Horses with this profile were 2-35
* Both winners had very similar weights
* They had absences of 8 and 9 days
* NAABEGHA with 14 days should be respected
* It's a worry He hasn't won yet in this class
* Not that concerned though as he has gone close
* Last time was very eye catching
* Drawn 1 here in a big field he blew the start
* Came from a detached last place to finish well
* This small field should suit him well
* NAABEGHA's record in fields of 10 or more is 0-19
* He could well be a small field horse
* At the prices down from a 0-102 its worth the risk

Selection

NAABEGHA 11/2

Each Way

* Each way at 11/2 is an option
* There are 2 possible saver bets if we want that route
* A Saver on Agerzam 2/1 isn't a bad idea
* Trinityelitedotcom to place in a split stake is another
* That bet would bring quite a bit of safety
* I will leave any savers down to personal choice
* For selection purposes an each way bet is advised




H a y d o c k 3.15

4/1 Katenko, 9/2 Merry King, 6/1 Vintage Star
7/1 Night Alliance, 7/1 Sydney Paget, 10/1 Chance Du Roy
10/1 The Minack, 10/1 Vino Griego, 14/1 Valoroso
14/1 Wychwoods Brook.

* The Peter Marsh Chase is a Grade 2 over 3m
* It is the only Graded Chase of its kind in January
* Abandoned 3 times recently dilutes any angles
* Recent winners had 3 4 3 4 5 3 2 2 2 runs this season
* CHANCE DU ROY is the only horse with 1 run this year
* He won the Becher Chase 6 weeks ago
* It's asking a lot to win this from a career high mark
* Especially with 1 run this season as well
* 12 of the last 13 winners had Graded form before
* I would be wary of betting one that lacked that
* WYCHWOODS BROOK lacks that and is wrong
* I don't fancy him with just 3 Chase starts
* No past winner came up in trip like him
* None came from a Class 4 race either
* VALOROSO also has no Graded form
* It makes him unsuitable so does just 6 chase runs
* Past winners had the following chase starts
* 12 26 14 10 31 3 10 8 13 22 15 14 28
* All bar 1 winner had far more chasing experience
* NIGHT ALLIANCE only has 8 Chase starts
* That's not in the best range for this race
* He also lacks form in a Graded race before
* Thats a concern after 29 National Hunt runs
* He won well last time off 121 but now runs off 132
* The way he won last time it doesn't seen unreasonable
* NIGHT ALLIANCE comes from a Class 2 handicap
* Horses doing this have a 0-35 record
* Winning won't be a surprise but his profile is flawed
* THE MINACK has been absent 700 days
* I don't want to risk him on heavy ground absent so long
* His record suggests he is best on right handed tracks
* His record in Non Graded races is F W W W W W W 6
* His record in Graded races us PU 3 7 6
* That suggests Graded class could find him out again
* SYDNEY PAGET comes from a brilliant trial race
* He pulled up in that race though
* The 2002 winner pulled up in the same race
* He was a 8 year old though
* SYDNEY PAGET is 7 and they haven't done well lately
* They won in 1994-5 but all 13 aged 7 have lost since
* Horses aged 7 have been beaten at these prices
* 13/2 6/1 10/1 8/1 4/1 4/7 6/1 11/4 8/1 3/1 8/1 7/2 33/1
* Plenty fancied that lost as 7 year olds
* Until one wins I would rather look elsewhere
* Especially as he needs a career best after a poor run
* VINTAGE STAR comes from the Welsh National
* MERRY KING comes from the Welsh National
* I'm not that keen on horses that do this
* I don't really like horses from 3m 3f or more
* The 1995 winner did it from the Welsh National
* That year the Welsh National was run at Newbury
* The Chepstow factor could make a difference
* All 27 that tried it since then have been beaten
* In recent years it has been a bad preparation
* VINTAGE STAR and MERRY KING both have that
* The 1995 winner gives both some sort of lifeline
* That horse (Earth Summit) did have 15 Chase runs
* VINTAGE STAR has 8 runs a few less than ideal
* MERRY KING has 8 and he is a 7 year old
* I have to consider the poor recent 7yo record
* He's done the Hennessy and Welsh National
* He has taken in 3 hard races so far this season
* It is asking a lot to come and win this aged 7
* KATENKO flopped last time which was disappointing
* He can win if he puts that behind him
* There could be a chance fitness beaten him last time
* He fell first time out so was not certain to be fit
* His 2nd race may have come too soon for him
* Either way he is risky after that poor last run
* VINO GRIEGO is an exposed 9yo
* Nothing wrong with that in this race
* His issue is defy a mark of 157 and a high weight
* He needs a career best but loves the ground

Racing Post Ratings
Chases only
Heavy Ground only
All Ratings of 135 or higher

163 Katenko
156 Vino Griego
149 Chance Du Roy
149 Sydney Paget
147 Merry King
146 Vintage Star
140 Katenko
139 Merry King
138 Sydney Paget
137 Vintage Star

You can see here that if you concentrate only
on heavy ground chase form two horses stand
out. KATENKO and VINO GRIEGO. There are a
lot of different ways to approach this race and
I don't know which is the best. VINO GRIEGO
has a tough weight but I don't see why he can
not win and I'm siding with heavy ground form.

Selection

VINO GRIEGO 10/1 Win Bet

KATENKO 4/1 Saver Bet




A s c o t 3.35

The time to bet here was Ante Post when we
had 8 runners. No strong views. No negatives
for SIRE DE GRUGY but he is short and I'd be
keener to look at something better value. It's
not a race I'm bothered about. I will suggest
a Win bet and saver. HIDDEN CYCLONE could
be the saver with a Win bet on SOMMERSBY.


L i n g f i e l d 3.45

5/1 George Guru, 5/1 Haaf A Sixpence
6/1 Dance And Dance, 7/1 Strictly Silver
8/1 Emerald Wilderness, 8/1 Loyalty, 12/1 Birdman
12/1 Upavon, 14/1 Mia´s Boy, 14/1 True To Form
16/1 Favourite Treat, 16/1 Luhaif.

* This is a Class 2 handicap over 8f
* January have just 10 of these races
* Statistically I don't have enough to work on
* This is Class 2 and no winners were aged 8 or more
* EMERALD WILDERNESS and MIA´S BOY fail that
* DANCE AND DANCE is 8 older than every winner
* A Months absence doesn't help him either
* That said he is very well handicapped these days
* He could easily be one for a place
* LUHAIF has been absent too long
* STRICTLY SILVER has topweight and a mark of 100
* Absent 72 days it may be asking too much
* BIRDMAN looks too unreliable at the moment
* FAVOURITE TREAT doesn't feel safe with 9 runs
* The 4yo winners had far fewer or many more runs
* Going up in class he isn't for me
* UPAVON has a similar problem
* No 4yo won like him with around 10 runs
* He is also up in class and distance
* Throw in a months absence he becomes unsafe
* TRUE TO FORM is 7 and down in distance
* No winners had that profile and he is unsafe
* He does have a recent run though
* HAAF A SIXPENCE is an unexposed 5yo
* None of the winners could say that
* His 49 day absence doesn't help much
* You could argue stall 12 is the weakest draw
* For every positive he has a negative as well
* LOYALTY can't be ruled out with some positives
* He does have a career high mark though
* GEORGE GURU is 7 with a 37 day break
* I wouldnt rule him out despite this absence
* He hasn't yet won from this mark though
* He will need to be at his best to win

Selection

Reading the preview you can see signs of
constipation and that's because there have
only been 10 similar races and squeezing
out any angles is very difficult. I think this
is one of the hardest races today and I am
split staking this to reflect that opinion.

Selection

GEORGE GURU 5/1 Win Bet

DANCE AND DANCE 6/4 Place Bet



L i n g f i e l d 4.15

7/2 Blossom Lane, 4/1 Dutchartcollector
4/1 Masterpaver, 6/1 Bountiful Sin, 8/1 Frederic Chopin
10/1 Amontillado, Mary Le Bow, 16/1 Ede´s The Business
20/1 Three Heart´s.

* This is a 3yo handicap over 10f
* There are 62 of these races in January
* I had a good look at the Draw
* It is now 23 races since Stall 1 or Stall 2 won
* THREE HEART´S looks wrong and Stall 1 is no help
* EDE´S THE BUSINESS - Not for me from Stall 2
* DUTCHARTCOLLECTOR won a nursery last time out
* All last time out winners ran within 18 days
* He has been absent 37 days which is a worry
* That puts me off him. No winner was quite like him
* AMONTILLADO - I just needed a better last run

Shortlist

* FREDERIC CHOPIN - Not out of this despite absence
* If there was market support he would need respecting
* MARY LE BOW - I have to shortlist her on her profile
* BOUNTIFUL SIN also has the profile of a winner
* BLOSSOM LANE - competent profile 2 similar winners
* Top Class stable needs to be seriously considered
* MASTERPAVER has a solid profile
* Won a recent handicap with 5-6-7 career runs
* Horses with this profile had a 4-9 record

This is two open because I can't rule out those horses
with 3 runs. I am forced to shortlist 5 runners and this
tells me my statistics are impotent in this race. I think
MASTERPAVER has easily got the best profile despite
their being better stables in the race. That worries me
but I will follow the angles and see what happens.

MASTERPAVER 5/1

Each Way


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