No Main Account bet

1 Optional Account bet

Today's Account Bet


Newmarket 1.50

BUSATTO 14/1 Each Way

BALDUCCI 12/1 Saver




Staking Guidance to a £10 Stake

* £4 Each Way BUSATTO 14/1

* £2 Win BALDUCCI 12/1

* Busatto 14/1 - Bet365 Skybet Tote Betfred Spbet
* Busatto 14/1 - PPower StanJ Ladbrokes Corals Betfair



It is not yet clear what damage torrential rain will
do to today's message in terms of non runners and
price changes. I would like to continue a Saturday
record that has been very impressive this year and
if possible do that on the back of a strong message
too. The weather forecast and amount of racing is
going to make that difficult. There is more than an
element of pin the tail on the Donkey under these
conditions. I've limited the message to 8 previews.




O p t i o n a l A c c o u n t


One of my favourite Stakes is to have 2 horses
and bet them Win-Win and Each Way Double.
I haven't done that for a while but I like stakes
like that as it suits my psychologically offering
a strong element of safety in that sort of stake.
I was considering doing it today with these two

Curragh 5.45 - TARFASHA 9/4

Haydock 6.25 - SECRET LIASON 5/2

In the end a non runner has killed that option
and to be honest I do not mind that. So much
can go wrong in both races I felt that given a
horrible weather forecast it made sense only
to target one good bet at a decent price today.


Newmarket 1.50

BUSATTO 14/1 Each Way

BALDUCCI 12/1 Saver




I hope I've found that bet in BUSSATTO
and BALDUCCI who I also want to stake.

What I expect and hope to happen is that
both get out in front and lead them all the
way. There will be challengers so maybe
they will fold if caught and the place side
of this bet wouldn't be the safest bet but I
like the price. My analysis of BUSSATTO's
heavily biased towards his Sire and what
might be his ideal ground-distance-class.

Perhaps it is a load of old garbage but he
has plenty of little factors in his favour to
add up to a horse that should not be 14/1
in this race. BALDUCCI is worth the saver
as well. Every chance Stalls 1-2 are ideal
and if these are we have this pair drawn
best and capable of front running too.




Be careful if you follow the message as it
is not really safe conditions to do that and
I have not developed it too much just to
try and focus on today's account bet race.



F r i d a y s S u m m a r y

Yesterdays account bet was an each way bet
on OUT DO and he was a fast finishing 3rd so
a break level bet. It was quite an exciting and
interesting race. We deserved at least a place.
He was one of the best travellers coming very
sweetly to throw down his challenge. I feel it
was a race well read. I shortlisted 3 horses in
that race and they finished 1st 3rd and 4th so
I wasn't too far away at all. At least all stakes
are saved and on another day he'd have won.




P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S



M a r k e t R a s e n 1.45

3/1 Intermath, 100/30 Officer Drivel
7/2 Come On Sunshine, 7/2 Vosne Romanee
10/1 Istimraar, 14/1 Ain´t No Surprise, 14/1 Love Tangle
33/1 Macnamara, 33/1 Trinity Lorraine, 50/1 Fast Green.

This Novice Hurdle for 3 year olds is over 2m 1f and
a race that has switched from Market Rasen so there
are no past renewals. My best angle may be stamina
as INTERMATH is far from certain to stay. He is out of
Camacho a sprinter who never raced beyond 7f. So
far in his stud career he's bred only one Flat winner
beyond 9f. None of his National Hunt offspring have
won a race yet but more than that none of these got
within 14 lengths of the winner in any race. I would
not be at all surprised if he doesn't stay 17f as a 3yo
hurdler. The problem is we have to guess without a
lot of form to go on. AIN´T NO SURPRISE doesn't do
a lot for me and neither do any of the outsiders. I'm
going to oppose VOSNE ROMANEE because he was
modest on the flat and his trainer has never had an
debut 3yo hurdler win before. Jim Best in contrast
has a 4-10 record with his recruits and there seems
no reason why OFFICER DRIVEL can't improve that.
COME ON SUNSHINE is respected but winning last
time on the first day of the National Hunt Season
was unlikely to have been a hard task and he has
limited flat ability. OFFICER DRIVEL is my choice.

Selection

OFFICER DRIVEL 4/1

Each Way





N e w m a r k e t 1.50

5/1 Llanarmon Lad, 6/1 Tanseeb, 7/1 Johnno
7/1 Music Theory, 8/1 Balducci, Fury, 12/1 Prince Of Johanne
14/1 Busatto, 16/1 Albaqaa, 16/1 Askaud, 16/1 Balty Boys
20/1 Common Touch, 25/1 Boonga Roogeta

* This is a Class 2 Handicap over a Mile
* I want to oppose todays 3 year olds
* MUSIC THEORY is a 3yo seasonal debutant
* That is asking too much given conditions
* TANSEEB is a 3yo with 11 career starts
* I looked at 3 year olds with 10 or more runs
* None managed to win without a very recent run
* TANSEEB could end up hating the ground as well
* I would argue the following horses are unfit
* COMMON TOUCH - ALBAQAA
* BOONGA ROOGETA looks weak
* BALTY BOYS is very hard to like from a 12f race
* PRINCE OF JOHANNE is an 8 year old
* In Class 2 handicaps horses that age and older are weak
* Only 1 horse managed to win at his age (Duraid)
* He has more runs that year and won in a small field
* He also had 20lbs less weight and he is not for me
* ASKAUD is wrong as an exposed mare absent 47 days
* She is quirky and needs a lifetime best anyway
* LLANARMON LAD has an obvious chance and could win
* Statistically he is a bit too unorthodox though
* Winning a 10f race last time isn't typical of similar winners
* He is also very lightly raced for a 5 year old
* Win lose or draw he isn't matchable to any winners

Shortlist

* JOHNNO needs a career best
* He has a career high mark and no wins in the class
* In his favour though is a good recent soft ground run
* I think there probably better horses but he's a player
* If high numbers are favoured he could win
* I ran his exact profile up in class and similar types were 2-12
* What bothers me most is the Draw
* JOHNNO is in 14 and that does worry me

* FURY could go very well
* I had him as badly drawn and unfit at Epsom
* Last time could easily have been needed as well
* Doesn't inspire confidence but I can't rule him out

* BALDUCCI won last time out
* Will not be easy for a 7 year to follow up and win again
* Especially up in class but he has loads of backclass
* I like his draw and he should be a threat in form.

* BUSATTO is an unexposed 4 year old
* His main statistical issue is a 10 + length defeat last time
* I'd forgive him that as he was badly drawn at Sandown
* He did too much from a bad draw coming across to lead
* There are more likely winners but 14/1 + is generous

* His previous race was at Newmarket
* I don't think he stayed that day
* If I cross match all his sires runners on ground class distance
* None have won over that far in bad ground in that class
* They have over todays conditions though

* Look at his sires runners over 9f or more
* When running in Class 3 or higher
* There was a 0-20 record under these circumstances
* BUSATTO contributed to this 0-20 record
* His 2nd at Newmarket was one of those races
* I said earlier I don't think he stayed
* BUSATTO was also 2nd at York in a Class 2
* Only beaten a short head that day just short of 9f
* If this sires horses fail to stay 9f or more in Class 3 +

* BUSATTO is a front runner and could take some catching
* Then it excuses BUSATTO several previous defeats


Selection

BUSATTO 14/1 Each Way

BALDUCCI 12/1 Saver





R i p o n 2.00

7/4 Wink Oliver, 5/2 Shamrock Sheila
5/1 Tagtale, 7/1 Proved You Wrong, 12/1 Astrea
12/1 Autumn Revue, 25/1 Secret House.

This is a 2yo seller. Small field and whilst there is
nothing wrong with WINK OLIVER's profile he has
a Sire in Winker Watson who was a pig of a horse
in his career and who so far has bred poor quality
horses with a 3-102 record the only three winners
coming in low grade small field races. Now this is
also a low grade small field race but I think twice
before risking money on anything by this sire. It's
probably better to go with SHAMROCK SHEILA as
a filly getting the sex allowance anyway. I prefer
her but much will depend on the weather. If there
is good to soft ground it won't be a problem. If it
is soft or heavy then the only two sires in the race
that have never won with any offspring on softer
or heavier ground are the sires of WINK OLIVER
and SHAMROCK SHEILA. The worse the ground
the more this could bring TAGTALE and ASTREA
into contention. TAGTALE has been disappointing
but She hated the firm ground last time and She
could easily go close here. She has at least won
a race more than any of these have done. I feel
we should try to avoid WINK OLIVER. They must
have thought something of SHAMROCK SHEILA
to send her to France last time. She looks likely
to win this race. She would be my selection but
if the ground got very desperate there would be
a case to flip flop selections and have a saver.

Selection

On very soft ground I'd play it this way

TAGTALE WIN 7/1
SHAMROCK SHEILA Saver 13/8

On Good to soft or better

SHAMROCK SHEILA 13/8 would be the selection.

I appreciate that is a little unsatisfactory. I would
make sure if could not lose SHAMROCK SHEILA
won the race. In anticipation of the ground not
being too soft I'd stay with SHAMROCK SHEILA.

Final Selection

SHAMROCK SHEILA 13/8

Win Bet





N e w b u r y 3.15

3/1 Music Master, 11/2 Rocky Ground, 13/2 Intibaah
15/2 Naadirr, 10/1 Ahtoug, 11/1 Heeraat, 12/1 Rivellino
12/1 That Is The Spirit, 14/1 Es Que Love, 14/1 Eton Rifles
14/1 Highland Colori, 16/1 Complicate, 16/1 Hallelujah
66/1 Trader Jack.

* The Hackwood Stakes is a Group 3 over 6f
* Tight race with only 1 horse you can properly rule out
* Only 1 of the last 16 winners came from handicaps
* That horse won the Wokingham at Ascot
* ROCKY GROUND was placed in the Wokingham
* He did only finish 6th there albeit from a bad draw
* On his last run I shouldn't really select him
* RIVELLINO has the same problem beaten in a handicap
* NAADIRR is unsafe from only a 3yo handicap
* HALLELUJAH has raced just once this year 56 days ago
* That may not be enough for a 6 year old mare
* THAT IS THE SPIRIT comes from a 7f race
* As a 3 year old having 4 runs may be a bit short
* INTIBAAH has a 70 day absence and just 1 run this year
* I wouldn't trust the trainer to have him fit enough
* Horses down from 7f race don't score well
* Horses from 7f or more had a 1-35 record that winner a 3yo
* HIGHLAND COLORI - Not for me as a 6yo doing it
* Horses from 5f races don't score too well (2-34)
* In this and similar races horses from 5f underperform
* None of them were absent more than 2 weeks
* ETON RIFLES is hard to like as a 9yo from a 5f race
* AHTOUG is 6 and comes from a 5f race
* All his best numbers have been over the minimum trip
* HEERAAT - It is a big ask to win this from Stall 1
* With a nasty absence I expect him to fail
* ES QUE LOVE is 0-11 racing above handicap grade
* I don't see him being good enough
* COMPLICATE is hard to read and not safe
* He's only raced once since Dubai back in March
* MUSIC MASTER looks interesting
* He was a good 4th to Slade Power at Ascot
* The 2012 winner was 4th in the same race then won this
* The 2010-2001 winners also came from the Diamond Jubilee
* Obviously heavy rain would cause some concern
* He has the stand out chance on my angles

Selection

MUSIC MASTER 7/2

Win Bet



N e w b u r y 3.50

3/1 Tiggy Wiggy, 4/1 Realtra, 9/1 Parsley, Harry´s Dancer
12/1 Bond´s Girl, 12/1 Fast Act, 12/1 Haxby, 12/1 Pillar Box
16/1 Magical Memory, 20/1 Diamond Creek, 20/1 Midterm Break
20/1 Roudee, 25/1 Be Bold, 25/1 Captain Colby, 25/1 Tachophobia
33/1 Brazen Spirit, 33/1 Eastern Racer, 33/1 L´etacq
33/1 Prince Bonnaire, 33/1 Spirit Of Zeb, 40/1 Flyball
40/1 Secret Spirit, 50/1 Charlie´s Star, 50/1 Grey Zeb
66/1 Harry Hurricane.

* The Super Sprint is for 2 year olds over 5f
* There are 21 renewals of this race
* We had the winner last year from my angles
* I am going to use the same angles again
* No past winner had 6 or more career starts
* No past winner came from Nursery's
* No winners came from maidens with 3 or more runs
* MAGICAL MEMORY is one of a few failing that
* None came from an Auction maiden
* PILLAR BOX and FAST ACT fail this
* Horses with 4 or more previous runs won 6 of the 21 races
* All 6 of these winners came from Group races
* Those that came from Class 2 or lower were 0-127
* BE BOLD - MAGICAL MEMORY both fail this
* The crucial stat here is those that come from Listed races
* If this statistic holds we could get this race right
* Look at horses that come from Listed races
* Horses doing this with 4 or more runs were 0-25
* The implication here is after 4 runs they may have limitations
* Or they would have already progressed into Group Class
* HAXBY has this problem failing this 0-25 statistic
* REALTRA also has the same problem
* MIDTERM BREAK - ROUDEE - BE BOLD also fail this
* Most past winners had ran in Class 3 or higher before
* Avoid these horses if the following applies -
* They must be avoided if having 3 + runs
* They must be avoided if Male
* They must be avoided if Losing last time
* They must be avoided if dropping in distance
* No horse was beaten over 10 lengths over 5f last time
* Ignore horses without a run in the last 7 weeks
* Male horses that ran within 2 weeks were 0-71
* At this stage the shortlist stand as these five

Shortlist

* DIAMOND CREEK - PARSLEY - BOND´S GIRL
* HARRY´S DANCER - TIGGY WIGGY

* Fillies that dropped from 6f races were 2-47
* Both winners ran within the last 2 weeks
* BOND´S GIRL doesn't have that profile

* DIAMOND CREEK comes from the Cherry Hinton
* PARSLEY comes from the Cherry Hinton
* I would shortlist that profile

* DIAMOND CREEK does look the weaker of the two
* She was an outsider and finished last in that race

* HARRY´S DANCER is a filly with 2 runs from a Group race
* Only 3 horses had that profile. Two were outsiders that lost
* The other was the 2004 runner up at 9/2
* HARRY´S DANCER is like 1 horse that placed
* TIGGY WIGGY has 5 runs a better fit
* TIGGY WIGGY looks the best profile for me

Anyone wanting a saver may want to consider
a Place bet on HARRYS DANCER around 5/2 as
an alternative option if TIGGY WIGGY fails.


Selection

TIGGY WIGGY 4/1

Win Bet





N e w m a r k e t 4.15

5/2 Marmoom, 7/2 Cloud Line, 4/1 Moonvoy
5/1 Gharaaneej, 10/1 Lockhart, 10/1 Venturous Spirit
12/1 Purple Lane, 14/1 Crysdal, 50/1 Man Of Music
50/1 Quaintrelle, 100/1 Gracefilly, 100/1 Sybilicious.

This is a 7f maiden race. The favourite is a once raced
filly CLOUD LINE who started with William Haggas and
after just 1 race now suddenly appears for a Somerset
point to point yard. That is the strangest downgrade of
stable I can remember. Given that MARMOOM has a top
stable and has improved his racing post ratings twice in
a row I would far rather bet him each way around 3/1

Selection

MARMOOM 3/1

Each Way




C u r r a g h 5.45

9/4 Tarfasha, 7/2 Volume, 5/1 Tapestry, 11/2 Marvellous
6/1 Bracelet, 12/1 Lustrous, 14/1 Vote Often, 25/1 Palace
40/1 Ballybacka Queen, 50/1 Beyond Brilliance
66/1 Maid Of The Glens.

* The Irish oaks is obviously a Group 1 for fillies over 12f
* Recent winners had 3 4 5 8 4 3 7 6 4 5 3 career starts
* Recent winners had 3 3 2 3 3 7 2 4 2 1 runs that season
* There are 3 no hopers in this 11 runner race
* Horses that come from 8f to 12f look opposable
* No past winner has done that in recent years
* PALACE comes from 8f only 5 days ago
* That doesn't look the best preparation for a classic
* TAPESTRY and VOTE OFTEN both come from 8f races
* I want to keep away from horses going up 4f
* Especially when meeting seasoned English Oaks runners
* The Ribblesdale at Ascot is not a good trial race
* The last horse to win from that race was 20 years ago
* The last 11 Ribblesdale winners to run were all beaten
* BRACELET won that race and it puts me off her a bit
* LUSTROUS was behind her in second that day
* The first 5 home that day were within 2 lengths of each other
* I will be surprised if that is good enough form
* I think one of 3 horses will win
* These all come from the English Oaks
* TARFASHA (2nd) VOLUME (3rd) MARVELLOUS (6th)

MARVELLOUS went into the Oaks a long way ahead
on Racing Post Ratings. It may have been the track
or the race came too soon for her but she was also
badly drawn at Epsom. If MARVELLOUS runs to her
best she can win but there are doubts. She did not
prove she stayed at Epsom. She comes here after a
bad run not ideal for a Classic and first time blinkers
hardly inspires. She comes here without momentum.

VOLUME beaten 3.75 lengths at Epsom does make
some each way appeal. Apart from the fact I prefer
to be with other trainers in the race its her stamina
that worries me. No horse by Mount Nelson has yet
won a Group race beyond 8f. This sire hasn't even
bred a 10f winner yet in Class 2 or higher. I had my
doubts that she would not get home at Epsom and
although 2nd place suggests she did the Oaks was
run in a slowish time. It was slower than the Derby
and the Coronation Cup and even slower than the
12f handicap winner (Miss Marjurie) on Derby Day.
Volume might have been the beneficiary of a slow
time and if this is a truer run race then it could be
a problem for any each way bet. She is not for me.

I think TARFASHA will confirm the form and Win.

It is Marvellous not Volume that worries me most
but TARFASHA has the best 12f form in this race.

Selection

TARFASHA 9/4

Win Bet




H a y d o c k 6.25

5/2 Rise Up Lotus, 7/2 Secret Liaison
6/1 Ocean Sheridan, 13/2 Millar Rose
10/1 Macarthurs Park, 12/1 Low Cut Affair
14/1 Midnight Destiny.

* This is a 5f Nursery
* RISE UP LOTUS is a filly with 2 career starts
* She has not raced in 75 days
* The issue is whether this is a problem or not
* Technically it is not a big problem
* Horses and fillies with 2 runs are excellent
* Most did have much more recent runs
* If I look for lightly raced fillies with absences
* I can find 2 winners that had similar profiles
* One had 1 run and the other had 2 runs (Dead heated)
* Both however won at Bath in tiny fields on firm ground
* This race may take a bit more winning
* SECRET LIAISON could be the stronger option
* She has a good recent run just 10 days ago
* SECRET LIAISON went off too fast last time out
* She and another horse did too much too early
* She paid for that early speed and was caught very late
* SECRET LIAISON would have won easily without that
* No surprise at all if she proves hard to catch here
* MILLAR ROSE has a chance but only won a claimer
* There is not a great standard set my most of these
* No surprise if RISE UP LOTUS wins this race
* SECRET LIAISON offers stiff resistance though
* I think she could easily beat this favourite with her profile

Selection

SECRET LIAISON 5/2


****************************************************
****************************************************