No Main Account bet

No Optional Account bet


There are a lot of meetings today and rain may
well cause some problems as well. I have been
a little flat this week. Historically the week after
Ascot is a bad one as the Racing is weaker and
having aimed to peak at Royal Ascot its not the
biggest surprise that I've suffered a dip in form.

This always happens and it is the exact reason
why June has been a bad month over the years.
I've recognised and predicted it better this year
so we have escaped most of the damage with
the cost being just 1 loser in 3 poor messages.

Mind you we have only had one bet since Ascot
as I am quite good at understanding when I am
not working well. Wednesday's losing message
was so late and ineffective that it was evidence
that I am not firing. Mind you that can change
in a heartbeat and I always save something up
my sleeve for Saturdays having done advanced
work for a day where we have our best results.

I can feel the energy levels rising again and it
will hopefully show in tomorrows message. As
for this one it is work in progress and I hope it
will show signs of an inevitable return to form
as I have felt below par all week and its shown.



O p t i o n a l A c c o u n t


No Account Bet Today

Lots of races I do like but some have staking
that is unsuitable for an account bet. I would
see the Musselburgh 4.55 as a good example
of a race I really like but I can't really stake.

The Newcastle 8.20 is a perfect example too.
This for me is my best bet in today's message.


Newcastle 8.20

ANDERIEGO 6/4

Win Bet


He's the only bet today that I got excited about
but I do quite like my danger SBRASSE as well.

I think they will be 1st and 2nd. I did consider
two bets in this race with ANDERIEGO the win
bet but also a reverse forecast on ANDERIEGO
and SBRASSE as I think they should dominate
and if a muddling pace in a smaller field hurts
ANDERIEGO then this could be a useful saver.

I will leave that up to you as it's complicated.

There is no official bet but ANDERIEGO is my
best bet today and I hope he wins. I'm more
interested in getting my messages back to a
proper level and Tomorrow could be the day.




P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S



Doncaster 2.00

This 6f maiden for fillies looks an ideal race for
an each way double. SHAHRALASAL would be
my selection in that kind of bet. Those that don't
mind those bets may consider MUHAWALAH 4.10
as the ideal horse and race to combine her with.

Doncaster 2.00 - SHAHRALASAL 6/4
Doncaster 4.10 - MUHAWALAH 5/2

Each Way Double



Doncaster 2.30

4/5 Hawkesbury, 5/2 Jumeirah Glory
3/1 Doomah, 7/2 Russian Punch.

This 7f Novice race is not my kind of contest so I
would not offer anything significant to a preview
but I can tell you every winner was a male horse
who came up in distance and if that happens for
the 7th year in a row then HAWKESBURY will win.




D o n c a s t e r 3.00

7/2 Katawi, 5/1 Disclosure, 11/2 Mccarthy Mor, 6/1 Jive
8/1 Tell Me When, 9/1 Les Gar Gan, 12/1 Look Here´s Al
14/1 Traditionelle, 14/1 Winter Picnic, 16/1 Argent Touch
20/1 Walta, 33/1 False Witness, 33/1 Stream Of Light.

* This is a 3yo handicap over 6f
* I don't fancy the following
* TELL ME WHEN has a weak Draw
* JIVE has a weak Draw and an unsafe profile
* STREAM OF LIGHT - WINTER PICNIC are Underraced
* The following have average profiles
* Not negatives but not enough to select them
* KATAWI - TRADITIONELLE - LES GAR GAN -WALTA
* LOOK HERE´S AL - ARGENT TOUCH - FALSE WITNESS
* DISCLOSURE - Decent profile
* MCCARTHY MOR has a good profile as well
* DISCLOSURE has the better numbers
* MCCARTHY MOR could have more improvement

Selection

DISCLOSURE 7/2 Win Bet
MCCARTHY MOR 6/1 Saver



M u s s e l b u r g h 3.10

6/4 Ventura Shadow, 7/4 Honest Bob´s
8/1 Decisive Rebel, 12/1 Cupulation, 12/1 Hell For Leather
12/1 Queen Of The Scots, 25/1 Caties Do Dah.

This is a 2yo selling race over 5f. I though the best profile
was VENTURA SHADOW. Margins are tight in these races
but HONEST BOB´S has to give her weight because he is
penalised for a win and concedes the sex allowance too.
There are winners that drop from 6f races but none of the
winners won last time out 6f as HONEST BOB´S has done
and none like him won from a selling race when so short
of runs. He does set the standard and could win but I feel
my angles point to VENTURA SHADOW being a safer bet
of the two. DECISIVE REBEL is like a winner and looks to
have the second best profile but is the 3rd best price and
I would see this as a race to split stakes on both horses.

Selection

DECISIVE REBEL 5/1 - Half your stake to win

VENTURA SHADOW 11/8 - Half your stake to win




D o n c a s t e r 3.35

5/2 Knavery, 7/2 Zerfaal, 5/1 Moohaarib
5/1 Regiment, 6/1 Championship, 8/1 Nonno Giulio
16/1 Scrutiny.

* This is a 3yo handicap over 8f
* KNAVERY has 1 career run
* Only fillies have won similar races with just 1 run
* One was a seasonal debutant the other ran that year
* That filly didn't have to go up in distance
* KNAVERY is a Male horse and doesn't look safe
* I can't match him to any winners
* REGIMENT won a 7f handicap last time
* Horses that did that with 8 or more runs are 0-16
* REGIMENT with 12 runs looks one to avoid
* SCRUTINY isn't like a winner

Shortlist

* CHAMPIONSHIP - Acceptable profile but not first choice
* MOOHAARIB has an acceptable profile
* NONNO GIULIO - Shortlistable but I'd prefer 2 runs this year
* ZERFAAL is like a winner despite a heavy defeat

Selection

NONNO GIULIO 5/1 Win Bet

ZERFAAL 9/2 Saver Bet





D o n c a s t e r 4.10

2/1 Award, 5/2 Muhawalah, 7/2 Dream Child, 10/1 Gale Force
16/1 Pendley Legacy, 16/1 Petticoat Lane, 16/1 Smageta
20/1 May Queen, 33/1 Sheer Poetry, 33/1 Wilful Minx
100/1 Red Legacy.

* This is a 10f maiden for fillies
* AWARD has a decent enough chance
* 4 runs though and from a handicap is not orthodox
* I ran his profile and couldn't match him to a winner
* 3 runs this year and static 77 79 79 Racing Post Ratings
* He is surely vulnerable to an improver
* DREAM CHILD - No statistical reason why he can't win
* I wouldn't criticise anyone from betting him each way
* MUHAWALAH'S profile interested me
* Horses coming from an 8f maiden
* 2 Career runs
* Running within 6 weeks
* Starting under 10/1
* 9 horses ran in similar races with her profile
* They finished W 2 W 3 W 2 W 2 W
* MUHAWALAH was well regarded last year
* She was backed for the 1000 Guineas before her debut
* This year she was heavily backed on her debut
* She hasn't delivered yet but this could be her race
* I see this as an each way double race

Selection

MUHAWALAH 5/2




M u s s e l b u r g h 4.55

6/4 Longshadow, 4/1 Voice From Above
6/1 Mason Hindmarsh, 6/1 Strobe, 12/1 Spruzzo
14/1 Hero´s Story, 14/1 Underwritten, 16/1 Indepub
33/1 Hayley.

This is a 2m Handicap. There is a tempting case despite the
price for LONGSHADOW. If you look at 4 year olds that have
just won recent 2m handicaps you find that 5 horses like him
tried to win again and they finished W 3 W 4 W so there is a
good case for him. I can't justify betting VOICE FROM ABOVE.
First of she is a mare who won last time over 13f and has the
difficult task of going up 3f in trip. Statistically that's not a big
problem but no horse has won it without a recent race which
she lacks. You have the other problem that Strategic Prince
her sire has yet to breed a 14f winner never mind a 2m one.
I don't fancy HERO´S STORY who looks underraced this year
or UNDERWRITTEN with an absence. MASON HINDMARSH is
a big runner. I can find 4 winners aged 7 or more that had a
break of over a month and just 1-2 runs that year which tells
me he could be a big runner. I could only shortlist 2 horses.

LONGSHADOW - Most likely winner and good profile

MASON HINDMARSH - Good profile and needs to be considered

It is hard to stake this. LONGSHADOW is clearly the better fit
as an unexposed 4 year old. I think LONGSHADOW may win
again but I would consider MASON HINDMARSH as worth the
saver whether that is either place or win.

Selection

LONGSHADOW 7/4 Win Bet

MASON HINDMARSH 11/10 Place Bet




C h e s t e r 7.20

15/8 Cosseted, 7/2 Tears Of The Sun, 4/1 Maracuja
6/1 Taro Tywod, 17/2 Maven, 11/1 Pandorica
16/1 Coincidently, 20/1 Arianrhod.

I thought COSSETED would win if handling the track.
I like the fact she has 3 times now improved her last
Racing Post Rating suggesting she is improving and
the number also suggest she's still well handicapped.
I'm not sold on TEARS OF THE SUN not as a 3yo with
just 1 run this year when having to come down from
a 12f race. Statistically she is unsafe and I'd also see
the faster ground as another unknown factor. Both of
her parents were mudlarks and she is unproven on a
surface as fast as this. MARACUJA has a chance but
has lost 6 maiden races in a row and the only horse
that won with a similar profile did win her last race.
I think COSSETED ought to win but the dilemma is a
mixture of risking her at a short price when she has
not yet proven she will handle the track. That makes
COSSETED a horse I could only have a small bet on.



C h e s t e r 7.55

7/4 Brae Hill, 3/1 Anaconda, 7/2 Sweet Lightning
13/2 Conry, 15/2 Big Johnny D, 16/1 Capaill Liath,
50/1 Cyflymder.

I think you can make a very good case for favourite
BRAE HILL. Every year he stops winning in August
or later so he's still in prime time and loves Chester.
He was mid division at Ascot last time but he seems
to hate that track as his record shows. This is a rare
run beneath Class 2-3 races. The last time he came
down in Class he won and that was in a small field
Claimer like this. BRAE HILL should be hard to beat.
SWEET LIGHTNING will be a big threat but whilst a
W W record here looks significant he's never won a
race on ground faster than good or over a distance
as short as this. I feel over this trip on faster ground
he may well get outspeeded in a small field. I feel
ANACONDA has the Class to win but reading him is
not easy. He finished last on his only race here and
that raises a question mark about whether he may
not like this track as a very big horse and he hasn't
got any fast ground form over a mile. You couldn't
rule BIG JOHNNY D out but two runs this year both
miserable does push him into a risky category. It's
a complicated race where I just prefer BRAE HILL.


N e w c a s t l e 8.20

9/4 Anderiego, 4/1 Sbraase, 13/2 Big Storm Coming
12/1 Thorntoun Lady, 16/1 Rogue Wave, 16/1 Vito Volterra.

What interests me about this Mile handicap is that the
two non runners were top and second top weight and
that has left ANDERIEGO conceding weight to vastly
inferior rivals. If you assume VITO VOLTERRA will not
be fit having had one poor race in the last 20 months
then ANDERIEGO a 78 rated horse facing only a 0-69
class field looks to have a class edge and could win.
THORNTOUN LADY and BIG STORM COMING have a
lot to prove. Neither achieved Racing Post Ratings of
more than 75 in all of their career races and neither
have run beyond a Class 4 race yet. ANDERIEGO has
just clocked a 91 rating and has beaten that before
and has backclass in considerably better races than
they have. ROGUE WAVE looks unsafe. SBRASSE is
respected though with a reasonable profile and he
looks the main danger and I think he will be placed.

For a selection I have to side with ANDERIEGO as a
horse who excels on fast ground over a mile. There
is always the risk a small field could catch him out
but he wins on his last figure and that also came in
a small field and the frame of the weights suits him

I think splitting the stakes could pay off
Selection

Win Bet ANDERIEGO 6/4

Reverse Forecast ANDERIEGO - SBRASSE

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