1 Optional Account bet

Goodwood 1.55

BROCKWELL 8/1

Each Way


O p t i o n a l A c c o u n t

I'm staying with Goodwood today and 6 previews.
I scanned the other cards but several of the tracks
don't suit me well and I wanted to focus purely on
Goodwood. I had to do the Sussex Stakes and the
selection KINGMAN is unbackable so I only have 5
possibilities for having an account bet on the day.


Goodwood 1.55 - BROCKWELL 9/1 Each Way

Goodwood 2.30 - SNOW SKY 4/1 Win Bet
Goodwood 2.30 - SCOTLAND 8/1 Saver Bet

Goodwood 3.05 - KINGMAN 4/9

Goodwood 3.40 - HIGHLAND REEL 11/10 - Half stakes to win
Goodwood 3.40 - AHLAN EMARATI 5/1 - Half stakes to win

Goodwood 4.15 - HUNDI 4/1 Each Way

Goodwood 4.50 - HEDGE END 14/1 Each Way


I thought about HUNDI each way on the account
but she has a poor racing post rating and whilst
there are excuses for that I have unraced horses
and a strong favourite that put me off that idea.

I've split staked the 3.40pm rather than have the
each way bet on AHLAN EMARATI. It was one of
the options for a bet but not convinced I staked
it well and the preview's based on assumptions.

I'm boxed in with SNOW SKY and Scotland as a
saver. Not my sort of race to be honest but these
two are here because they fit the best profile in
the race. No each way options also limits us too.

HEDGE END is a big price but probably comes
into the too difficult category. I feel he may be
placed rather than win but I did like him best.

This leaves us with BROCKWELL 9/1 each way.
Pricewise have chosen him as well. He looks
a bit too obvious and I don't care much for the
stable but he has 3 strong factors in his favour.

He passes my fitness angles for the race which
has stood the test of time. BROCKWELL ran so
well in this last year and you can argue he has
a better chance this year with less weight and
a more recent run. Thirdly an unscientific look
at the statistical breeding side shows that very
few of today's Sires have won with horses that
raced over this far in this class and he is one.

The big issue here is what to do with hot-pot
MAID IN RIO. There is an obvious case she's
going to find staying very difficult. That said
there are very compelling arguments about
her form and her fitness and handicap mark.
Sire records should never been fully trusted
and she could still win it if not truly staying.

I thought about a split stake bet involving a
saver on Maid In Rio with BROCKWELL the
win bet. That isn't a bad idea but given we
have far fewer runners this year and many
are hard to fancy outsiders I'm going e/way.



T u e s d a y s S u m m a r y

Could have been better could have been worse.
It was an unsettled message. Too many races to
consider and too many options as bets and that
showed a bit with some unavoidable indecision.
My three main options finished 3 W 3 and I was
not sure if yesterdays bet was worth it or not. It
involved two losers but the each way side made
sure that we returned at least some of out stake
back. It could have been worse much as we did
lose a bit on the bet. RAINFORD GLORY looked
the winner matched at 1.15 in running and may
just have paid for doing too much legwork out
in front. DARK PROFIT grabbed third place and
that was needed. I suspect it was an ill thought
out bet but as I said yesterday staking is harder
during a tricky run of form. I count 12 selections
in the message with 4 winners 6 losers 2 placed
on a day dominated by bet choice and staking.



P r o f i l e s @ P r e v i e w s



G o o d w o o d 1.55

13/8 Maid In Rio, 7/1 Ray Ward, 9/1 Lieutenant Miller
9/1 Solar View, 12/1 Brockwell, 14/1 Ballinderry Boy
14/1 Lion Beacon, 14/1 Longshadow, 16/1 Presto Volante
16/1 Stopped Out, 25/1 Sunny Future, 33/1 Teak.

* This is a 2m 5f Handicap for 0-92 rated horses
* It's the only race of it's type in July or August

It was no real surprise when MAID IN RIO won last
time out as she was so fit and in form but I pointed
out that no horse sired by Captain Rio had won any
race over 2 miles. MAID IN RIO became the first to
do that. In her current mood I can not be shocked if
she wins yet again but this is over 2m 5f drastically
further than her last race and there must be a doubt.

* You want a fit horse to win over 2m 5f
* Look at the number of runs past winners had that year
* Since January 1st they had 10 6 4 8 5 6 5 5 5 7 5 7 7 4 5 runs
* Since March 1st they had 4 5 3 5 4 5 5 5 5 7 5 7 7 4 5 runs

* I would prefer at least 4 runs this year
* I would prefer at least 3 runs March 1st
* A recent run is also required to win this
* Past winners had the following days absence
* 5 25 38 21 19 39 20 12 20 11 18 18 10 days

* LIEUTENANT MILLER is an 8yo with 1 run this year
* Horses aged 8 have struggled in this race
* Since 1986 all 48 that tried have been beaten
* SUNNY FUTURE is also 8 and comes from 12f as well
* STOPPED OUT is 9 and looks short of runs this year

* SOLAR VIEW - BALLINDERRY BOY are underraced
* Both have just 2 runs this calendar year
* Recent winners had 10 6 4 8 5 6 5 5 5 7 5 7 7 4 5
* SOLAR VIEW also has to come up from a Class 5 race
* I have breeding issues with him later in the preview

* I'd prefer 4 runs this year and 3 since March
* There are several horses almost there but not quite
* RAY WARD could do with 1 extra run this year
* SOHAR and RAY WARD come from the Ascot Stakes
* No past winner of this came from that race

* LONGSHADOW has one of the fittest profiles
* His problem is a lack of class for a Class 2 handicap
* He comes from a Class 5 and has no form beyond Class 4
* TEAK is fit enough but out of his depth

* BROCKWELL has achieved enough recent runs
* He was 5th in this race last year beaten under 4 lengths
* This year he is 7lbs lower in the weights
* BROCKWELL also has a more recent run
* There are certainly positives about BROCKWELL
* He finished very well in last years race

* LION BEACON has a fit enough profile
* On Breeding there is a serious stamina doubt though

* PRESTO VOLANTE has a fit enough profile
* He's quite well handicapped if he has the class
* Chances are he does not have that class
* Not when exposed and never run in this class before
* PRESTO VOLANTE also has to prove his stamina

* I ran some sire statistics
* I looked at sires with No winners over 2m 2f or more
* MAID IN RIO is from a Sire with no winners over 2m 2f +
* LION BEACON is from a Sire with no winners over 2m 2f +
* STOPPED OUT is from a Sire with no winners over 2m 2f +
* PRESTO VOLANTE is from a Sire with no winners over 2m 2f +

* RAY WARD - SOLAR VIEW both have Galileo as a sire
* Galileo runners over further then 2m 2f show a 0-39 record
* That is not good for such a high class stallion
* My Racing Software is actually wrong telling me this
* Galileo did have a 2m 4f winner in France
* The point is his record is much weaker than people realise

* If you take the sires who have winners under these conditions
* Over 2m 4f or more in Class 2 or higher
* There are only 2 horses from Sires that achieve this
* LONGSHADOW - BROCKWELL
* BROCKWELL is one of the safest bets in the race
* He stands out of profile and statistical breeding


Selection

BROCKWELL 9/1

Each Way





G o o d w o o d 2.30

7/2 Snow Sky, 4/1 Somewhat, 5/1 Cloudscape
5/1 Observational, 7/1 Scotland, 7/1 Windshear
10/1 Red Galileo

* The Gordon Stakes is a 12f Group race for 3yo's
* After a non runner we have just 7 running now
* RED GALILEO hasn't impressed much in 3 Group races
* He could improve but wouldn't be first choice
* SOMEWHAT comes from a 10f race
* He's a bit exposed with 10 runs to be doing that
* He would just about be the most exposed winner anyway
* You have to respect the trainers record
* There are better profiles in the race
* WINDSHEAR could pop up but not very convincing
* No past winners came from 13f or 14f as he does
* Placed in a small field Group race last time
* He was beaten twice in 3yo handicaps before that
* There are horses that have achieved more in this race
* OBSERVATIONAL is smart and has Goodwood form
* A lightly raced horse won this with an absence in 2009
* You have to rely on Roger Charlton getting him fit though
* CLOUDSCAPE should improve over 10f
* It's not the strongest profile up from 10f with 5 runs
* He's a big horse and track and ground could be an issue

Best Profile

* Ascot's King Edward Stakes is an excellent trial race
* I looked at horses coming from this race
* Beaten less than 6 lengths in that race
* Between 4-7 career starts
* Between 3-4 runs this season
* 6 horses had that profile in this race
* They finished W W W 4 7 2 W W
* The 2006 2008 2011 2012 winners had that profile
* SNOW SKY has this profile
* SCOTLAND has this profile
* SCOTLAND was 3rd and SNOW SKY 4th at Ascot
* SNOW SKY was 6/1 and SCOTLAND 25/1
* I can see SNOW SKY reversing that form
* SCOTLAND seemed flattered by the way the race was run
* SNOW SKY made most appeal on my angles

Selection

No each Way option does limit us here and so many
could make the step forward they need to win. I am
boxed in here. I feel I should go with my best profile
without any reason not to. Two horses share that and
if SCOTLAND or SNOW SKY win my angles will take
the credit as I can get lost in these races. Win-Saver.

SNOW SKY 4/1 Win Bet

SCOTLAND 8/1 Saver Bet




G o o d w o o d 3.05

4/9 Kingman, 2/1 Toronado
25/1 Outstrip, 50/1 Darwin

The Sussex Stakes is a duel this year between two
high class horses in KINGMAN and TORONADO. This
is not a betting race for me. I suppose the strongest
case for TORONADO upsetting the favourite is down
to him being lighter raced this year. KINGMAN looks
top class but he's had 4 runs this year already. I can
not have that view though. You have TORONADO a
4 year old with only 1 race this year. KINGMAN is a
3 year old who gets 8lbs weight for age and has an
extra 3 runs for conditioning. If you look for recent
4yo winners almost all of these won with at least 3
runs that year. Horses aged 4 with under 3 runs that
year were just 1-27 and the winner was Frankel and
he can easily be seen as exceptional. I couldn't bet
a 4yo like TORONADO conceding weight and three
runs this year to a horse as classy as KINGMAN.





G o o d w o o d 3.40

Evs Highland Reel, 9/2 Ahlan Emarati
11/2 Dr No, 11/2 Tupi, 12/1 Pallister, 25/1 Chadic
25/1 Faithful Creek, 33/1 Room Key.

* The Vintage Stakes is a 7f Group 2 race for 2yo's
* This is not a significant trends race
* You want 1-2-3 runs but every runner today has that
* TUPI has a good profile but one thing bothers me
* Male horses winning 7f maidens last time
* Coming from a Grade 1 track
* Starting favourite or 2nd favourite last time
* Only one career start
* 8 horses had that profile and 4 won
* They finished 5 W 7 W 2 W 2 W
* TUPI's problem could be his Racing Post Ratings
* TUPI's rating from his only run is 81
* That's the lowest rating in the entire field
* Look at Racing Post Ratings of all past winners
* The ratings they achieved prior to winning
* The last 11 winners had the following R.P. Ratings
* 90 112 110 104 99 100 99 104 91 95 103
* The lowest rating was 90 recorded last year
* TUPI is a long way behind that with his 81
* This just means he has achieved less than past winners
* The following horses all have the same problem
* ROOM KEY - CHADIC - FAITHFUL CREEK - PALLISTER
* This leaves just 3 runners to Shortlist

Shortlist

* DR NO has a chance but is rejected by Richard Hughes
* 3rd in the Coventry yet turned him down for a maiden winner

* HIGHLAND REEL has a great chance if a drop in trip helps
* Hardly any horses have done that in this race
* HIGHLAND REEL is therefore statistically neutral

* AHLAN EMARATI has shown enough to consider

Selection

I hope I am right in opposing Tupi as Richard Hughes
has turned down the Coventry 3rd to ride him and I'm
conscious that Tupi has a good profile. I've just taken
the view that every past winner achieved more and if
I am right about Tupi and Richard Hughes is right that
Dr No is the inferior horse then we are left with just 2.

AHLAN EMARATI appeals each way but so to does the
split stake bet with HIGHLAND REEL as the saving bet.

Split Stake Bet

HIGHLAND REEL 11/10 - Half your stake to win
AHLAN EMARATI 5/1 - - Half your stake to win




G o o d w o o d 4.15

2/1 Shahah, 3/1 Hundi, 5/1 Touchline, 7/1 Avenue Du Monde
12/1 Bright Flash, 14/1 Royal Razalma, 16/1 Piccadillo
20/1 Inauguration, 25/1 Follow The Faith, 25/1 Moon River
33/1 Marigot Bay, 100/1 Mary Ann Bugg.

* This is a 2yo maiden for fillies over 6f

* I want to use a statistic I gave out yesterday
* Since the stalls were renumbered back in 2011
* Goodwood have had 61 maiden races for 2 year olds
* Thats any distance any sex of race anytime of year
* Unraced horses won 13 of these races (13-275)
* Look at the Draws of these 13 unraced horses
* All 13 winners were drawn 1-2-3-4-5-6-7
* Those drawn 8 or higher were 0-93
* BRIGHT FLASH fails this statistic
* AVENUE DU MONDE fails this statistic
* To be fair non runners sort of nullify that statistic now
* AVENUE DU MONDE surely would be shorter if fancied
* ROYAL RAZALMA - Small stable and from an Auction race
* You'd expect a couple to be too smart for him

Shortlist

* TOUCHLINE is unraced and will appeal to many
* Michael Bell is not the best trainer with debutants
* That worries me especially as she is said to be a big filly
* The track could also cause her problems

* SHAHAH sets the standard for the experienced horses
* Top connections and cost 320k
* They will be desperate to win a race with him
* Clearly a serious runner and potential winner

* HUNDI could be the biggest danger to the favourite
* 16 renewals of this and 6 winners came from Newmarket
* They all had 1-2 runs like her and she needs shortlisting
* She started favourite that day but missed the break
* She also cost a bomb at 270k

Shortlist

There is a definite case for a split stake bet on HUNDI
and SHAHAH but I can't risk watching TOUCHLINE get
both beaten despite being third choice. I think the bet
has to be HUNDI each way. She's not a big filly but she
is very well regarded. She would be my choice here.

HUNDI 4/1

Each Way



G o o d w o o d 4.50

7/1 Hiking, 7/1 Patterned
8/1 Principle Equation, 10/1 Palerma, 12/1 Hedge End
14/1 Auction, 14/1 Lady Tiana, 14/1 Running Deer
16/1 Alquimia, 20/1 Hot Coffee, 20/1 Magique
20/1 Saltwater Creek, 25/1 Agent Allison
33/1 Uchenna.

* This is a Fillies handicap over 9 furlongs
* There has been 20 renewals of this race
* Just a few angles in an impossible race
* 19 of the 20 winners had 3 or more runs this season
* The other had 2 runs but had only 3 career starts
* HIKING has 2 runs and won a mile handicap last time
* The only winner doing this (2013) had 3 runs
* HIKING with 5 is not a perfect match
* I think she needs another run this year
* AGENT ALLISON is also underraced this year
* Past winners had the following days absence
* 39 11 4 19 18 12 25 19 27 11 32 20 22 11 17 11 11
* AGENT ALLISON has to go absent 160 days
* Horses aged 5 or more are only 1-122 in 20 renewals
* RUNNING DEER makes no appeal as the only 5yo
* All past winners had at least 2 runs in the past 3 months
* Horses from Maidens have a 1-24 record
* That winner had 3 runs and won over 8f last time
* PATTERNED comes from a maiden with 2 runs
* 3 horses had this profile finishing 3rd 3rd 10th
* PATTERNED - Not a negative but none have won like her
* She is a small horse and that extra run would have helped
* 4 horses won with more than 14 career starts
* They all had at least 6 runs that season
* MAGIQUE looks underraced with 17 runs and 3 this year
* No horses came from Listed or Group races
* All 16 horses that tried failed
* AUCTION - UCHENNA - AGENT ALLISON fail this
* ALQUIMIA comes from a Class 5 handicap
* Only 1 past winner came from such a low grade handicap
* That winner had serious backclass and didn't go up in trip
* Worries me she has 9 runs yet still eligible for Class 5 races

* LADY TIANI - I feel she has an acceptable profile
* Hardly the sexiest connections in the race though
* I really needed a better last run to match her perfectly
* She could pop up but I don't see her as 1st choice

* PRINCIPLE EQUATION and PALERMA are similar
* PALERMA won a maiden last time with 3 runs
* PRINCIPLE EQUATION won a maiden last time with 3 runs
* 8 horses had this profile finishing 13 5 8 5 W 8 7 8
* Most were fancied and disappointed
* The 2005 winner did manage it but had just 8 rivals
* PALERMA has a few more and a longer absence
* Not sure Mick Channon would be my trainer for 3 runs
* PRINCIPLE EQUATION also faces more rivals
* Her numbers are slightly better as well
* Either could win and both are shortlistable
* HOT COFFEE comes from a 7f race
* Horses from 7f need Class 2 form and 5 + runs that year
* The 2011 winner did this and also had 7 runs like her
* Not keen on the trainer or being the only horse form 7f
* Statistically though she has to be included

* HEDGE END could run very well here
* Richard Hughes can't do 8st 1lbs so a 5lbs claimer rides
* HEDGE END is quite exposed with 16 runs
* 4 horses won with more than 14 career starts
* They all had at least 6 runs that season
* HEDGE END does have those required runs
* She has won handicaps off higher marks
* She's placed twice at Goodwood off higher marks too

Selection

HEDGE END 14/1

Each Way

****************************************************
****************************************************