No Main Account bet

1 Optional Account bet

The bad weather and soft ground have thrown me
today. We had a 10/1 winner on Saturday but there
have been 3 pretty weak messages in 4 days since
then. Conditions and Circumstances are preventing
me from doing good work at the moment. That is a
bit annoying but there is so much choice tomorrow
that this may just be the last unimpressive message.

I know when I am working well and have the right
circumstances to offer something and today is not
one of those days. It is a one race message as the
Henry 2nd Stakes at Sandown interested me. I am
going with a bet in this race. Mainly because of a
good price but the rest of the message is rubbish.

Somehow we have to get out of this cycle where
the Saturday message dominates the week and
the rest of it suffers because of it. I'm working on
that. I want shot of this message and hopefully a
lot more choice means a better message Friday.


O p t i o n a l A c c o u n t

One Bet Today

Sandown 7.15

HIGH JINX 8/1

Each Way



If anyone gets an email from me that says I have
sent them a private message I would ignore it as
I have not sent anything. A member who opened
it has said it took him to a BBC news page. I don't
know anything about this. If there is a virus issue
I will look into it but I haven't mailed anyone and
have and will not send any attachments or links.




W e d n e s d a y 's S u m m a r y

It was a bet free day yesterday given conditions
and circumstances and it was the right decision.
The message didn't do much at all. I gave a fair
chance to Pashan Garh and suggested him but
he missed the break and that killed his chances
especially as he wasted ground switching sides.




P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S


B A T H

This is one of my favourite tracks. I prefer it when
it's Firm and not soft but either way its just looks a
bit too hard. It is a white flag of surrender here as
the field sizes look too intimidating. I don't want a
bloodbath here and I don't feel I can beat the card.

Bath 3.00

* I Thought Principle Equation may win this maiden
* Far too short now and It may be best to split stake it
* Principle Equation to win Bon Voyage to place




H A Y D O C K

I don't want to get drawn into too much here on a
card split between guessing in maidens and tough
handicaps. Just a few very quick opinions here.

Haydock 2.20

* Min Alemarat 4/5 would be my choice


Haydock 3.50

* I Was looking for an each way bet in this race
* LORD AERYN and ANDERIEGO prefer it faster
* AUTUN could in but not for me as a seasonal debutant
* CHOSEN CHARACTER attracted me the most
* Not a reliable bet by any means though




WETHERBY

What a desperate card.

My best bet there is this one

Wetherby 7.35

ALLANARD 5/2

Win Bet




S a n d o w n 7.15

11/4 Brown Panther, 7/2 Tiger Cliff, 15/2 Camborne
17/2 High Jinx, 9/1 El Salvador, 9/1 Seismos, 11/1 Girolamo
12/1 Biographer, 14/1 Menorah, 16/1 Oriental Fox
16/1 Whiplash Willie

* The Henry 2nd Stakes is a Group 3 over 2 miles
* Cross-Checked the record of the Sires in this race
* I looked for those Sires that bred the following
* Winners at 2m or more on softer ground in Pattern Class
* Only 3 of todays sire's have bred winners like this
* These 3 horses are from Sires that have managed this
* EL SALVADOR - SEISMOS - BIOGRAPHER

* The Henry 2nd Stakes has never been won by a handicapper
* WHIPLASH WILLIE only comes from a Class 3 handicap
* MENORAH is 9 and has never ran on the Flat before
* I can't bet a horse in a Group race with that profile
* I looked at the past winners aged 6 or more
* There were a couple that won first time out
* Most had 2 or more runs that season
* You have to go back to 1992 for the last to win with 1 run
* BROWN PANTHER is 6 and has 1 run this season
* I would have liked a second run
* Worries me he also comes from a poor trial race
* ORIENTAL FOX also has 1 run this year as a 6yo
* Yet to prove himself in this class he looks worth ignoring
* CAMBORNE is 6 and has just 1 run this season as well
* Not keen on his Sire Doyen in pattern races over distances
* All 16 that tried to win one over 12f or more lost
* Just not persuaded he is suitable for this type of race
* BIOGRAPHER was well beaten on his 1st run this year
* His trainer said he was behind schedule and unfit
* With a 50 day break since then he looks unsafe
* SEISMOS is impossible to read with no English runs
* His 61 day absence is not a positive but in the dark with him
* I will be surprised if he wins today
* GIROLAMO is a foreign raider and impossible to read
* With 1 run this season he wouldn't be first choice

Shortlist


* TIGER CLIFF has the same profile from the Yorkshire Cup
* He needs to improve a bit to win but could well do that

* EL SALVADOR should go well in handling the track
* All his wins have come on sharper tracks than this

* HIGH JINX has 2 runs this year fine for a 6 year old
* He comes from the Yorkshire Cup
* Look at horses that come from this race
* When beaten under 10 lengths in that race
* When having 1-2 runs this season
* Similar horses were 5-17
* HIGH JINX has the best profile

He was 4th in this last year beaten 6 lengths
He was 3/1 favourite that day
He was also a seasonal debutant so no easy task
I think he has a better chance today at over twice the price

Selection

HIGH JINX 8/1

Each Way

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