No Account Bet

First Message of the week. Nothing to heavy and
just a few previews scattered around. I'm going
to avoid Sedgefield almost all small field races.
Yarmouth is as boring as it usually is. Thirsk has
limited coverage and I do try to steer clear here.
I have some Listowel races. More observational
than anything else and not every race has a bet
and it is Chepstow that looks the best meeting.

Tomorrow the message numbers hits 2000 and
in the spirit of this landmark I wanted to change
the message for the next 2 days just to see how
It goes. It wont be the message you are used to.
It will be completely different just for Wednesday
and on Thursday which will present a good test.



T o d a y s M e s s a g e


In the old days when I took Monday off I started
my Tuesday message as soon as I had I sent the
Sunday one but these days I take the whole day
off on the Monday for a proper break and I tend
not to prepare a Tuesday message until the day.

Thats what I have done today so will be a little
bit ring rusty and not working at a full capacity.

I do think my best angles are at Chepstow and
it's not a track that has always rewarded me on
the Flat. I have split staked the 2.50pm maiden.

Chepstow 2.50

SO NOBLE 10/11 Half stakes to win

COPPERBELT 9/2 + Half stakes to win

Not sure if I have that right as I was tempted by
the each way single on COPPERBELT as well.



Chepstow 3.20 - MECADO 5/2

Chepstow 3.50 - AMADEUS WOLFE TONE 6/4

I fancy both these horses

My game plan today was to leave you with the
best bet combining both horses. This was going
to be a win bet on both horses and an each way
double but a Non runner in the 3.50pm has hurt
that bet as there are now just 7 runners so that
will have to be abandoned. That messes things
up. I could go with either as my best bet. I like
MECADO and did consider him as either a win
or each way single. The double's not impossible
either but my preferred stake is now just spoilt.

I'm open minded about the day considering the
message was only started this morning and it's
not the sort of day where I want to start betting
something different to a bet I can no longer do.
A bit of confidence needs repairing so I feel we
should sit this out without a bet especially as a
non runners has spoilt my idea of the best bet.




S u n d a y s R e v i e w

There was no message yesterday as I took some
time out with rubbish cards following a weekend
that was both heavy and unsuccessful. There was
no Saturday bet instead we had GOING FRENCH
on the Sunday. He ran badly and came last with
just 4 runners. He didn't handle the ground a risk
I was prepared to accept. Connections stated he
was sore after the race and this looks a plausible
reason. It does not really matter if horses lose in
photos or by a long way but a heavy defeat does
feel worse so it was a poor end to the weekend.
The message on Sunday wasn't too bad and we
have 2 winners and placed bets and given some
of the previews were in France the message did
contain some success. Just not the bet mattered.



P r o f i l e s @ P r e v i e w s


L i s t o w e l 2.35

13/8 New Alliance, 4/1 Smuggler´s Cove
9/2 Mufrad, 11/2 Spryt, 8/1 Corbata
10/1 Yulong Xiongfeng, 33/1 Never Again.

I think NEW ALLIANCE and MUFRAD should fight
this out. Not keen at all on SPRTY coming from a
5f race to a 7f race. He was last in a Nursery last
time and his Racing Post Ratings are regressing.

Talking of those ratings SMUGGLERS COVE has
mountains to climb on his debut run. I think this
may rest between NEW ALLIANCE and MUFRAD
unless the unraced Corbata is useful and there's
nothing to stop him winning if he is. Short of this
I will go for a split stake bet but I can only guess.

Selection


Staked to £10

£4 Win NEW ALLIANCE 7/4

£6 Win MUFRAD 5/1





C h e p s t o w 2.50

5/4 So Noble, 3/1 Copperbelt, 4/1 Wu Zetian
8/1 Mad Endeavour, 12/1 Man Of Music
20/1 Borough Belle, 33/1 Road Map, 66/1 Aduvee
66/1 Farmshop Boy, 66/1 Zand Man
100/1 My Stroppy Poppy.

The most likely winner in this 7f maiden for all aged
horses has to be SO NOBLE. I don't mind betting any
horse at odds on if conditions are right but I want to
have plenty in my favour. Not a bad stable but there
are many better stables we could have had and with
a Racing Post Rating of only 62 on his debut there is
only an average standard set by SO NOBLE. I wasn't
keen on unraced WU ZETIAN. In 1998 Gosden won a
similar race with an unraced filly (Rising Chorus) but
since then all 58 that tried have failed so I don't like
her profile enough. MAD ENDEAVOUR has excuses if
you look hard enough but surely the standard he sets
is too low. The issue is can COPPERBELT improve on
a disappointing debut. I looked at horses beaten that
far and more with 1 run. I can find winners that won
when absent 30, 41, 44 days after a poor run. He has
a 27 day break which I can live with. He started a 5/4
favourite at Southwell last time when a 2nd favourite
was rated 72 and trained by Micheal Stoute so there
was plenty of clues that he had ability. It is not hard
to forgive any Royal Applause debutant at Southwell
especially when he missed the break and raced wide.

We just won't know what to expect but COPPERBELT
is a big enough danger to include in the staking. The
each way bet is risky as he hasn't shown enough and
I think the right bet here is to split stake this. We will
do no damage if the odds on favourite wins yet could
still win a decent amount if COPPERBELT can win it.

Selection

SO NOBLE 10/11 Half stakes to win

COPPERBELT 9/2 + Half stakes to win




T h i r s k 3.10

7/4 Eye Contact, 5/2 Golden Emerald
5/1 Millkwood, 8/1 Sirdal, 14/1 Betty The Thief
14/1 Denala, 14/1 Moorsholm, 14/1 Tom Mann
50/1 Exton, 66/1 Missfire, 66/1 Van Mildert.

* This is a Mile Maiden for all aged horses
* I can only consider 2 horses here
* EYE CONTACT has the best profile
* GOLDEN EMERALD has the second best

There isn't much wrong with GOLDEN EMERALD's
profile and although only second best given what
limited strength in depth there is in the race some
may consider than an each way bet at 5/2 makes a
lot of appeal. Others will prefer the favourite. This
is one of those races best left to your personal style
of betting. You could get a tenner and split it going
£4 win on EYE CONTACT and £6 GOLDEN EMERALD
which will get most of our stake back if the favourite
wins yet double our money with GOLDEN EMERALD
winning. This one's best left to your personal choice.





C h e p s t o w 3.20

7/2 Khawaater, 5/1 Mecado, 5/1 Zipedeedodah
6/1 Lady Marita, 8/1 Ickymasho, 8/1 June´s Moon
12/1 Air Of York, 16/1 Chetan, 16/1 Essaka
16/1 Mylaporyours, 25/1 Seamoor Secret.

Nurseries can be complicated races. If I can find
a very bad favourite it may be worth the time to
commit to a Nursery despite knowing many here
have hidden form. In this case I had MECADO as
a positive down in trip with 3 runs when beaten
under 10 lengths last time. There were 3 horses
with that same profile and they finished W 3 W.
This shows that MECADO has a positive profile.
MECADO won his second race at Brighton in a
maiden when not handling the track. He failed
to follow up at Epsom on soft ground over 7f. I
showed the following table last time about him.

* Horses aged 2 by Compton Place
* Running on Soft or Heavy Ground
* When racing over 6f or less they are 20-264
* When racing over 7f or more they are 0-48

MECADO is by Compton Place and the above
tells me he was unlikely to have stayed 7f on
soft ground last time out and he had excuses
for that run. He faces lower rated horses here.
Back in trip on faster ground I like his chance.

Selection

MECADO 5/2

Win Bet





L i s t o w e l 3.35

11/4 Summaya, 5/1 Green Artist
7/1 Absorbing, 8/1 Buzz Off Barroso, 8/1 Tap Focus
10/1 Magic Of Christmas, 12/1 Mademoiselle Penny
14/1 Hassah, 14/1 Jeune Et Jolie, 20/1 Springstride
20/1 Winsor Royal, 50/1 Intense Spirit.

This is a 2yo maiden over a mile for fillies. Clearly
hampered here by an unraced filly as favourite so
I can not rate SUMMAYA but her stable did win this
last year with a debutant and she is well drawn. In
Mile races at Listowel with this many runners there
is a clear disadvantage being drawn in stalls 1-2-3.

They never win handicaps here. They do win now
and again in Maidens like this but it has been ages
since one managed it and I would not bet stalls 1-3.

* TAP FOCUS - ABSORBING fail this
* I would oppose two three horses on the draw.
* GREEN ARTIST hasn't set that high a standard yet
* I would avoid the horses 3 above
* SUMMAYA is a Positive because of the above negatives
* It did cross my mind to split stake this race
* SUMMAYA 3/1 Win Bet - GREEN ARTIST 4/5 Place Bet

No Selection



C h e p s t o w 3.50

5/2 Amadeus Wolfe Tone, 5/2 Desert Society
8/1 Peak Storm, 8/1 Solo Hunter
8/1 Springlike, 10/1 Living Leader, 50/1 Blue Clumber.

* This is a Claiming race over 7f
* There are 30 of these races in September

* The following statistic interests me
* September Claiming races
* Run over 5f 6f 7f
* There are 76 of these races in September
* Inexperienced horses have awful records
* Horses with under 8 career starts were 0-89

There was a winner with 8 runs (Ivy Moon) but that
doesn't really count as her claimer was a 3yo only
race and she met no older horses. I would oppose
the lighter raced horses. We did this last week and
got House Captain beaten and I am against these.

* DESERT SOCIETY - 7 runs is not enough statistically
* SPRINGLIKE is also opposed with 6 runs
* PEAK STORM - Doesn't come out well at the weights

Shortlist

* SOLO HUNTER came out like 1 winner

* AMADEUS WOLFE TONE - Advantages as an older horse
* He has the best numbers in the race

Selection

AMADEUS WOLFE TONE 6/4

Win Bet




L i s t o w e l 4.10

11/4 Kanes Pass, 100/30 Empress Toorah
5/1 Sophie´s World, 6/1 Shes No Joke
7/1 Talitha Kum, 12/1 Glassatura, 12/1 Surreal
12/1 Whimsical, 14/1 Caliso Bay.

* This is a fillies handicap over a mile
* The Racing Post have napped EMPRESS TOORAH
* They say she has the " ideal draw to be ridden positively"
* Look at Mile handicaps at Listowel with 8 or more runners
* Since 2007 there have been 29 of these handicaps
* Horses drawn 1-2-3 have a 0-83 record since 2007
* EMPRESS TOORAH drawn 2 would not be my choice
* Neither would TALITHA KUM drawn 2
* SOPHIE´S WORLD has stall 3 so also fails that statistic
* I'd avoid these three and SHES NO JOKE
* SHES NO JOKE has raced just once this calendar year
* Not for me when she comes down in distance too
* I would avoid the above horses above
* The choice of selection can only be speculative

Selection

TALITHA KUM 7/1 Win Bet

KANES PASS 10/11 Place Bet




C h e p s t o w 4.50

9/4 Fractal, 5/1 Jupiter Storm
4/1 Madame Rouge, 33/1 Ruggero.

This 12f handicap has changed after a fancied non runner
and I wonder if a tiny field will undermine my best statistic.

* August to December
* Chepstow all aged handicaps
* Any distance and Any Class
* Horses aged 3
* Under 4 career starts
* Horses with this profile are 0-60

MADAME ROUGE fails this 0-60 statistic and should be one
to avoid much as the tiny field will clearly help him more.

* FRACTAL is 3 and won a handicap last time
* I looked at all similar races for 3 year olds doing that
* Many won but none that had under 6 career starts
* All 12 that tried that failed albeit a small sample size admittedly

If this negative works out and FRACTAL gets beaten of course it
will help MADAME ROUGE's chances and with JUPITER STORM
absent 99 days you can see why it doesn't take much to get any
statistic beaten in a small field. I really didn't like the profiles of
the 3 year olds and I am going to chance JUPITER STORM on a
track like this despite an absence. Open race despite negatives.

Selection

JUPITER STORM

Win Bet 5/2 +


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