No Account Bet


I had planned a day off today. I did no work on
this message until this morning and decided to
do one at the last minute. There were just too
many things I wanted to show you. An unusual
format. It's feels very relaxed and imaginative.


Results will decide what sort of message this
may be and with bad ground and non runners
Anything goes. I see it as Fun and Imaginative
but there are some very serious angles today.

If could go wrong given the conditions but if
it works out well potentially it could be very
good and perhaps even a blueprint for future
messages given how much I've found in such
a short period of time the message has taken.

I won't go with a bet today as it's been a rush
job and I have barely got this finished in time.
Well worth a read though and playing small.




T o d a y s M e s s a g e


I like to use a lot of Combination Statistics. At
least that is what I call them. Todays message
is littered with these. It's a message that gives
us a lot more Negatives than Positives. I won't
get them all beaten under these conditions so
be careful but some very interesting arguments.




M o n d a y s S u m m a r y

I think we had a bit of luck yesterday as the bet
on BONDESIRE who finished 4th was voided so
we all get all our stakes back. One stall opened
too early and the jockeys ignores the flag telling
them it was a false start. The stewards ruled the
race void so all stakes refunded. Conditions on
the day were simply atrocious. It was just lottery
betting on some courses. We ended up with one
winner from the three other previews and there
was no surprise to me that came in Ireland. The
racing in Ireland feels easier to me at time and
I am not sure why. There are certain drawbacks
there like a lack of intimate knowledge of many
horses in the race but many races there appear
much easier than England and I feel my results
in Ireland are as good as England and that has
been the case for some time now. It is an area
of untapped potential. I have discovered things
about tracks and draw biases there that simply
don't get reported or commented on anywhere.
I see any Irish previews I send as on a par with
anything I can do in England as the principles
are just the same but the vast majority are just
not informed and that leads to opportunities.



Final Third of the Flat Season

It is fair to say that We've now entered the final
third of the season. Great early start and profits
much higher than expected in the first third. It's
far to say the second third has been flat and no
doubt affected by the heavy workload and there
has been far too much treading water. As usual
with me spells of poor form do not result in high
losses. They result in periods of inactivity and it
means you often have to fend for yourselves for
too long often cherry picking no bet messages.

It's now important to correct that in the final 3rd
of the season. What we do in the next 12 weeks
will determine if we have a good season or just
a profitable one that whimpers out and does not
take advantage of the great start we have had.




P r o f i l e s @ P r e v i e w s



E p s o m 2.15

2/1 Mecado, 5/1 Jumeirah Glory, 5/1 Kifaaya
6/1 Outback Ruler, 7/1 Digital Rebellion, 7/1 Guiding Light
16/1 Bakht A Rawan.

These Nursery races can be a bit messy and wrapped
up in all sorts of toxic issues like hidden form. I think
this is messy but I asked my angles a question and it
is interesting that they question the favourite here.

* I wanted to find out the following from Sire Stats
* How many Sires in this race have the following
* Juvenile winners over 7f or more on soft or heavy ground
* Only one Sired failed that question. Compton Place

* Horses aged 2 by Compton Place
* Running on Soft or Heavy Ground
* When racing over 6f or more they are 5-42
* When racing over 6f or more they are 4-90
* When racing over 7f or more they are 0-27

MECADO is by Compton Place
Interesting to see if he stays today
The above combination statistics say oppose him

I can't give you a categorical selection without
guessing and we have under 8 runners now so
I will just say MECADO has doubts and you may
be better off looking elsewhere. Any selection
would have to be a guess. OUTBACK RULER
has a bit more experience than the rest.

OUTBACK RULER 6/1 Win Bet

KIFAAYA 7/2 Saver




E p s o m 2.50

4/6 Dance Of Fire 6/4 Here Now.

* This is 2yo maiden over a mile
* 2 runners. Both have good stables and 2 career starts
* Both have recent runs and come from 7f maidens
* I decided to run a few combination sire stats here

* Sires record with 2yo's over 8f on soft or heavy

* HERE NOW - His sires record is 3-34

* DANCE OF FIRE - His sires record is 0-5

I looked more closely at DUKE OF FIRE

* Horses aged 2 by Norse Dancer over 8f + are 0-17

On that angle DUKE OF FIRE is the weakest link

Never as simple as that and this is a tiny field so
no result will surprise by I feel DUKE OF FIRE has
much more to prove in terms of stamina so needs
to be opposed given he is the odds on favourite.

Selection

HERE NOW 6/4

Win Bet






E p s o m 3.25

9/2 Arctic Feeling, 9/2 Huntsmans Close
6/1 Links Drive Lady, 8/1 Hopes N Dreams
10/1 Prince Regal, 25/1 Firmdecisions.

* This 6f handicap has been battered by non runners
* I had one combination Statistic that interested me
* This was about horses sired by Camacho

When running over 6f or more
Running on Good to Soft or Worse
Running in Class 3 or higher
They have a 0-40 record
ARCTIC FEELING fails This statistic

I don't know how far I can trust of commit to that angle
but it interested me and stops me from selecting him. I
them decided to look at every horse in the race using a
similar approach. That is looking at the sires and finding
out how they do with their runners over 6f or more and
running on Good to soft or worse in Class 3 or higher.

The Sire Striking Ambition is 0-5 under these circumstances
That probably means nothing but LINKS DRIVE LADY does
have that to overcome. Not good enough evidence though.

What has shocked me a bit is horses by Piccolo

When running over at 6f or more
Running on Good to Soft or Worse
Running in Class 3 or higher

Horses by Piccolo have a miserable 0-145 record doing this

There was a horse (Jayanjay) that won on Good to Soft at
Brighton over 5f 213 yards in a Class 3 race but if we look
only at 6f or more and no extended 5f races the record is
just 0-145 which is incredible for a sire as versatile as this.

LINKS DRIVE LADY fails this statistic

Therefore I am making the following horses negatives

Negatives

LINKS DRIVE LADY - ARCTIC FEELING

Selection

Well I do like HUNTSMANS CLOSE

I also feel its interesting that the 2013 and 2012 winners
of this were both well beaten by more than 10 lengths
last time in Ripon's Great St Wilfred and came out and
won this race with high weights. HOPES N DREAMS is
one of those horses as he won this race last year with
the same prep run. That leads me to this selection.

Selection

HOPES N DREAMS 7/1 Win Bet

HUNTSMANS CLOSE 9/4 Saver





E p s o m 3.55

No real interest in this race
Staying with some combination Stats
I looked at Sires with horses aged 3 or more
Running over 7f or more in Soft or heavy ground
Running in Class 4 or higher
The weakest results were for Diamond Green

IXELLES DIAMOND would NOT be my selection
BROCKLEBANK would NOT be my selection

There is no selection



E p s o m 4.30

11/10 Last Echo, 3/1 Last Minute Lisa
7/1 Corn Maiden, 8/1 Power Up,
10/1 Tingo In The Tale.

My combination stats suggest vulnerability
in Last Minute Lisa. Not 100% confident it's
a safe enough angle to use but I felt there
was evidence to oppose him in this race.
I wouldn't want to oppose LAST ECHO..

Selection

LAST ECHO 11/10

Win Bet




B a l l i n r o b e 4.40

4/7 Marakoush, 6/1 Beyond Intensity
7/1 Dancingwithangels, 8/1 Asbury Boss
10/1 Neverushacon, 25/1 Coolgower
33/1 A Smile Says Alot, 33/1 Hammana Queen
33/1 Holdona Second, 33/1 One Cool Boy.

The first issue is should we oppose the odds on
favourite MARAKOUSH with his absence. I think
probably not. I looked at DANCINGWITHANGELS
and BEYOND INTENSITY as each way options. If
there is a bet here it is probably the match bet.

BEYOND INTENSITY to beat Dancingwithangels

You are significantly better off with a 3yo filly
than a 5yo mare in maiden races. Both these
horses look on the outer limit of the stamina
ranges today and who stays best will matter.
Statistically it should be BEYOND INTENSITY.

BEYOND INTENSITY could be a bet in a match bet
He could be a place only bet around 4/5





B a l l i n r o b e 5.10

This 1m 5f handicap is too unfamiliar to risk doing.

There are two horses in this race by sires that have
not have winners over this far before and that leads
me to question the stamina of these two horses.

* BYRON BEAUTY - No horse by Byron has won past 12f
* HOUSE LIMIT - No horse by Red Clubs has won past 12f

Not enough here to drag me into the race though.




R i p o n 5.20

2/1 Mighty Missile, 4/1 Kodicil, 4/1 Anne´s Valentino
13/2 Cowslip, 12/1 Rokeby, 12/1 Superciliary
16/1 Dubara Reef.

* This is 2m handicap for 0-65 rated horses

* MIGHTY MISSILE was 2nd in a 12f race last time
* The issue for this horse much be Stamina
* Even if we assume he stays 12f this is a 16f race
* Look at horses sired by Majestic Missile
* When running over 9f or more they are 0-34
* We know MIGHTY MISSILE does stay further than 9f
* There must be a serious doubt he wont get home
* His Sire's Sire was Royal Applause
* That horse barely gets any 2m winners
* MIGHTY MISSILE is opposed

* ROKEBY is 3 and comes from a 12f race
* He is by a sire called Byron
* Byron's runners are 0-13 running over 13f or more

That takes out both of the 3 year olds. People do like
3 year olds in these races and they have won this race
many times before- but none have done it since 2005
and we shouldn't bet 3 year olds just for the sake of it
and when there are serious stamina doubts I want to
look elsewhere. I don't want SUPERCILIARY with his
absence. DUBARA REEF looks unattractive on recent
runs. ANNE´S VALENTINO and COWSLIP have decent
chances but statistically as Mares I would have liked
a better last run for them both. I was most persuaded
by KODICIL who won a division of this race last year.

Selection

KODICIL 9/2




S e d g e f i e l d 7.00

9/4 Debt To Society, 11/4 Ever So Much
6/1 Unknown Legend, 13/2 One In A Row, 8/1 Sir Lynx
12/1 Indepub, 12/1 Pindar, 20/1 Escape To The West.

EVER SO MUCH is trading around 2.60 in this 2m 4f
Novice Handicap Chase. JP McManus will not have
high ambitions for this horse if he has switched him
from Charlie Swan to Ben Haslam. I wasn't sure we
should be betting a 5yo under these circumstances.

* Every Handicap Chase in August- September
* Between 2m 2f and 2m 6f in Any Class
* Both Novice Handicap Chases and ordinary Handicaps
* Horses aged 5
* Coming from a Novice or beginners chase
* Under 5 Chase starts
* 19 horses ran under these circumstances
* All 19 of these lost

I would turn down EVER SO MUCH
I am going to make him a negative even with
a set of statistics that are a bit too overcomplicated

Selection

DEBT TO SOCIETY 7/2

Each Way




B a l l i n r o b e 7.40

10/11 Rough Justice, 2/1 Definite Ruby
9/2 Please Talk, 25/1 Better B Quick
33/1 Derryfadda, 33/1 Dr Kildare.

This is a Beginners Chase over 7f.
We backed ROUGH JUSTICE last time out
He won a bad maiden hurdle race
He has no experience over fences before
He is a horse that has disappointed more than once
Horses with her exact profile were 1-14

He could win but I'd prefer to side with experience
over fences. DEFINITE RUBY and PLEASE TALK are
perhaps safer options. Two radically different types.
I would play it this way in a race I have to guess in

Selection

PLEASE TALK Win Bet 3/1


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