1 Account Bet

Each Way Bet and Saver


Warwick 3.50

KILRUSH 20/1 Each Way

TULLYESKER HILL 4/1 Saver Bet


Given how bad the ground is and trying to
provide a bit of value on a Saturday I have
decided to go with a big priced bet at 20/1
with a saver. Obviously He is risky and no
certainty to win or place. I could play safer
and not even bother with a bet but around
20/1 it's worth a go when the ground is just
dreadful and very few races can be trusted.



KILRUSH 20/1 Bet365 Tote Betfred Betfair

KILRUSH 20/1 SpBet VC PPower Stan James





M e s s a g e C o n t e n t

Newbury and Warwick survived inspections
this morning. That is superb news for todays
racing but makes this message considerably
more difficult to do as I couldn't risk wasting
too much time on cards that may have gone.

I feel I have made a good fist of it. There are
obvious concerns. The ground is very bad at
both National Hunt tracks. Fences have been
taken down in places. Just because they are
racing doesn't mean they should be and this
doesn't mean we should be risking money.

Newbury - 5 previews
Lingfield - 6 previews
Warwick - 1 preview
Wolverhampton - 1 preview




M e s s a g e H i g h l i g h t s


WOLVERHAMPTON

One token preview in the 6.20pm. My angles
point to DO MORE BUSINESS winning and it
looks a good each way bet on paper but this
track is vile and I don't know if I can trust the
track the horse or the race. If I'm honest I'm
trying hard not to stake heavy bets at Wolves.


NEWBURY

Five Previews here but 3 of them are not too
suitable for strong bets and are there simply
because of prestige. I have done 2 handicaps
at Newbury. Both hard. Both very interesting.

Newbury 1.50 - KILMURVY 8/1 Win Bet
Newbury 1.50 - UPSWING 3/1 Saver Bet

Newbury 3.35 - TOTALIZE 16/1 Each Way
Newbury 3.35 - CHRIS PEA GREEN 25/1 Win Bet

Obviously the Betfair hurdle is very hard and
it's unlikely we will get this right but I preferred
both TOTALIZE from a significant trial race and
CHRIS PEA GREEN at a big price. I can't really
take the race very seriously. The 1.50pm will
be easier to win. This long distance handicap
hurdles do throw up some interesting angles
so I am interested to see how I do in the 1.50.



LINGFIELD

I've tried to get the 3.45 winner but I think it's
probably too hard. These 2 looked strongest.

Lingfield 3.45 - ALBEN STAR 12/1 Win Bet
Lingfield 3.45 - NOBLE DEED 10/1 Win Bet

My angles are trying to bully me at 2.35pm

Lingfield 2.35 - PICANSORT 7/4 Win Bet

He looks strong from the approach I have
taken in the race but it could be a wrong
approach and I don't have the stomach to
advise a strong bet on a short price here.


WARWICK

Only one preview and that's based on a
small sample size but fascinating angles.
I don't know how far I can trust my stats
and my negatives but I liked an outsider
but also want a Saver based on sire stats.

Warwick 3.50 - KILRUSH 20/1 Each Way
Warwick 3.50 - TULLYESKER HILL 4/1 Saver Bet






F r i d a y ' s R e v i e w

We looked at 5 Kempton races yesterday and
I think we did reasonably well all things being
equal. We broke level in the first race and this
was a well staked bet. I was disappointed that
Strollawaynow lost beaten by the only other I
shortlisted. Paddy The Stout winning at 10/1 is
easily the highpoint of the message. Given it's
bad ground on a Grade 1 track it wasn't a bad
effort and it was just enough for respectability.





P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S




Newbury 1.20

1/2 Calipto, 11/4 Justification, 5/1 Seedling
10/1 Little Jon, 10/1 No No Charlie
25/1 Candyman Can.

Paul Nicholls has said CALIPTO is his best 4yo.
Whilst it leaves me cold to bet an odds on 4yo
on heavy ground with an absence it is hard to
be negative. His main opponents have similar
absences and I would expect Paul Nicholls's
best 4 year old to beat 2 horses that couldn't
win a maiden hurdle last time. CALIPTO will
probably win this but I'd want 4/6 to bet him.



L i n g f i e l d 1.30

Evs Waving, 3/1 Lisahane Bog, 6/1 Sovento
8/1 Salient, 14/1 Amber Moon, 20/1 Novel Dancer
25/1 Miles Of Sunshine.

This is a low grade 12f handicap. Not many can win
this race. I don't feel Novel Dancer will be fit enough
and Amber Moon is hardly safe as a 9yo mare going
up in distance. Sovento was beaten too far recently.
I can't see Miles of Sunshine beating the 3 horses in
the race with very recent runs. I think one of 2 win.

* LISAHANE BOG - Solid chance with recent run
* He has never ran over 12f at this track before
* WAVING - won easily last time and looks the one
* Initially I was worried he won at 14f last time
* A similar 5yo (Jackie Kiely) won doing the same

Selection

WAVING 4/5 Win Bet
WAVING - LISAHANE BOG Exacta




N e w b u r y 1.50

7/2 Andy Kelly, 7/2 Upswing, 9/2 Rydon Pynes
13/2 Pateese, 8/1 Kilmurvy, 10/1 Flicka Williams
10/1 Moorlands Mist, 14/1 Virginia Ash, Brackloon High
16/1 Scholastica.

* This is a 3m Handicap Hurdle
* There are 78 of these races in February
* Not too keen on 5 year olds in these races
* Horses aged 5 have a 2-58 record in the 78 races
* ANDY KELLY is the only 5 year old today
* He has a 50 day absence as well
* Longer than either 5yo winner and it worries me
* With so few 5yo winners I am opposing him
* RYDON PYNES is 6 and won a Novice hurdle last time
* I found 1 winner with this profile absent 20 days
* RYDON PYNES is absent 95 days though
* Horses from Novice Hurdles have a 6-91 record
* They all ran within the past 50 days
* Those absent longer were 0-30
* RYDON PYNES fails that and it worries me
* 95 days is a long time on heavy ground
* PATEESE is 9 and comes from 2m 6f
* I looked at 9 year olds up in distance
* There was an unimpressive 1-56 record
* That winner had a shorter absence and less weight
* PATEESE has plenty to do and fails my angles
* VIRGINIA ASH - Don't feel he has enough class
* Not when trying to follow up a win over further
* BRACKLOON HIGH doesn't offer enough
* He would prefer to go right handed
* MOORLANDS MIST disappointed last time
* I couldn't find a 7yo winner like him
* With an inexperienced jockey I wasn't tempted
* FLICKA WILLIAMS is up in distance absent a month
* Average profile. None won with his weight
* He looks badly treated to me off 138
* SCHOLASTICA - No mare won like her

Shortlist

* UPSWING was like 1 winner
* Drops in class after 2 good runs in better grade
* Main objections are the price as 100/30 is skinny

* KILMURVY is a 6yo up in distance
* I looked at similar 6yo's with around 13 runs
* I found 2 winners and feel his profile is fine
* He's similar to Eau De Cologne who won this in 1998

Selection

KILMURVY 8/1 Win Bet
UPSWING 3/1 Saver Bet



N e w b u r y 2.25

No idea what will win the Denman Chase. Not
a race I can do much with. Small field. Tactics
everywhere. Prep races for Cheltenham. If you
though AL FEROF didn't stay 3 miles at Kempton
this course and distance takes about 10 seconds
less time to run so I'm confident he will stay. He
is the best horse in the race. He should win this
at the weights but these races get very messy.

Selection - AL FEROF



L i n g f i e l d 2.35

5/2 Picansort, 11/4 Gregori, 9/2 Sir Pedro
5/1 Fair Value, 5/1 Song Of Parkes
14/1 Ask The Guru.

This is a 5f handicap. Unpleasant little race so no
interest for me. I decided a long time ago to avoid
anything tempting Brian Meehan races. GREGORI
was odds on to beat SONG OF PARKES last time in
a 5f handicap but it didn't work out that way. There
was a tactical excuse. I ran both profiles carefully.
With GREGORI I wanted a more recent run. If you
look at horses winning a 5f handicap last time out
the only horses to follow up are aged either 4 or 5.
Those aged older like SONG OF PARKES are 0-14.
Purely on profiles neither horse looks strong. May
be worth opposing them from unimpressive yards.
SIR PEDRO has a chance but PICANSORT has lots
of smart form here as this table illustrates below.

Racing Post Ratings
Lingfield 5f runs

91 Picansort
90 Picansort
89 Picansort
88 Ask The Guru Picansort
83 Picansort
81 Sir Pedro - Gregori - Picansort
79 Song Of Parkes
78 Song Of Parkes
73 Song Of Parkes Picansort
77 Fair Value
72 Gregori Picansort Picansort
70 Ask The Guru Picansort
67 Ask The Guru
66 Ask The Guru

This flatters PICANSORT a bit as he has raced over
this course and distance far more than his rivals so
He's had more chances but he has the 1st 2nd 3rd
joint 4th and 6th best Racing Post Ratings. If we go
on track aptitude then he stands out. I can live with
35 days absence as his latest two wins came off 56
and 48 day breaks. He won a similar race to this 3
runs ago. After that he raced in two Class 2 races a
grade he hasn't won in before .He is down in Class
today he sets a much higher standard at 5f here.

Selection

PICANSORT 2/1 Win Bet



L i n g f i e l d 3.10

100/30 Modernism, 7/2 Indian Jack
7/2 Moonday Sun, 6/1 Shavansky, 8/1 Chapter And Vers
8/1 Lowther, 10/1 Karam Albaari, 16/1 Patriotic.

This is a 10f handicap for 0-93 rated horses. Trappy
looking race. PATRIOTIC and CHAPTER AND VERSE
look short of recent runs to me. SHAVANSKY is older
than ideal for a race of this class. LOWTHER is Nine
years old and again not safe given his age. I looked
at last time out winners. INDIAN JACK did that but a
35 day absence and a step up in trip worries me so
I would see him as one to avoid. He's trying to win
again having just 1 race in 78 days and statistically
he ought to fail. MODERNISM won last time out but
is younger and has a recent race and looks a better
all round profile to me. KARAM ALBAARI ran badly
last time. That damages his profile. MOONDAY SUN
is unorthodox but ran well enough last time to have
a chance. Not a race I am confident in. The bet may
well be MODERNISM each way around 7/2 with his
progressive form and recent run. I would also like a
match bet taking MODERNISM to beat INDIAN JACK.

Selection

MODERNISM 7/2 Each Way
or
MODERNISM to beat Indian Jack in a Match bet





N e w b u r y 3.35

Betfair Hurdle Handicap
Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 2m110y

5/1 Irish Saint, 6/1 Dell´ Arca, 8/1 Rolling Star
9/1 Cheltenian, 10/1 Far West, 10/1 Smashing
12/1 Alaivan, 12/1 Vendor, 16/1 Swing Bowler
16/1 Totalize, 20/1 Chris Pea Green, 20/1 Deep Trouble
20/1 Gibb River, 20/1 Recession Proof, 25/1 Montbazon
25/1 Vasco Du Ronceray, 33/1 Act Of Kalanisi
33/1 Jumps Road, 33/1 Poet, 33/1 Splash Of Ginge
40/1 First Avenue, 40/1 Prompter.

* The Betfair Hurdle is a Grade 3 Handicap over 2m 110yds
* Used to be called the Tote Gold Trophy
* It is the only race of it's kind in February
* Past winners had 3-3-8-10-4-17-16-15-3-3-6-8 hurdle runs
* I don't want a seasonal debutant
* Not unless very lightly raced with under 4 runs
* The following horses are rejected with big absences
* VASCO DU RONCERAY - MONTBAZON - SWING BOWLER
* Horses with 1 run this season rarely win this
* CHELTENIAN is the only horse doing this today
* I don't want to risk him as an 8 year old
* Horses aged 8 + won only 3 renewals since 1963
* I don't want to bet a 9 year old
* FIRST AVENUE and POET are rejected aged 9
* ACT OF KALANISI shouldn't be good enough
* RECESSION PROOF is an 8yo
* Not an ideal profile especially falling last time out
* He had 2 seasons off and has just 4 runs since
* He hasn't done enough for me in those 4 runs
* ROLLING STAR is 5 and comes from a graded handicap
* Horses with this profile were 0-18
* Only 2 winners aged 5 came from handicaps
* Neither were similar to him or had his weight
* ROLLING STAR has 11st 12lbs
* Horses with 11st 8lbs or more had a 0-36 record
* None have won in the last 30 years
* None with Grade 1 form like him won with 11st 4lbs +
* I looked at horses coming from 2m 3f or more
* Since 1998 these horses have a 0-45 record
* The only winner years ago was Large Action in 1994
* He dropped down from a Grade 1 hurdle
* GIBB RIVER is out as an 8yo down from 19f
* VENDOR also comes down in distance
* He won a 19f handicap last time out
* Thats not a safe profile and he looks wrong to me
* If you look at 6yo winners they were different
* None had 13 or more career starts
* VENDOR has already had 14 hurdle starts
* He's a bit exposed to be winning again at 2m
* Especially with a 70 day absence
* SPLASH OF GINGE has to go down from 2m 5f
* IRISH SAINT also comes down from 2m 4f
* Thats not a safe enough profile at a short price
* IRISH SAINT is 5 and comes from a Graded Handicap
* Horses aged 5 doing this were 0-18
* IRISH SAINT has Grade 1 form before
* Horses with Grade 1 form and 11st or more are 0-48
* If he wins he wins but no winners were like him
* PROMPTER looks out of his depth
* JUMPS ROAD looks too exposed
* DEEP TROUBLE - Not keen he is 7 and up in class
* He was raised for being beaten last time out
* No horse his age won doing that
* DELL´ ARCA comes from a Graded Handicap
* We know 5 year olds with this profile were 0-18
* Unseating his jockey last time doesn't help his profile
* He gets bonus points for being lightly raced
* I can't match him to any winners though
* FAR WEST has a tough weight notwithstanding his claimer
* Certainly no horse with Grade 1 form had his weight
* There are positives though and I wouldn't rule him out
* Last time was disappointing though
* His best form has been on different types of track
* Not certain Newbury will suit him
* I'd also be worried he is being aimed at Cheltenham
* I'd give him a small chance but no more


Possibles

* ALAIVAN is a 8yo older than ideal
* With 14 hurdle runs I don't see a strong profile
* That said he has had 19 months off the track
* He is also well treated and comes here in good form
* ALAIVAN could have a squeak here

* CHRIS PEA GREEN comes from a Graded Handicap
* We know 5 year olds with this profile were 0-18
* His profile isn't perfect but I give him a chance
* He will love this ground
* His trainer has a good record in this race as well

* SMASHING is hard to read
* He's a bit exposed but 14 runs came in France
* Worries me he is only a small horse
* He only beat year olds last time as well
* On the positive side he is improving fast
* I think he should be kept on side

* TOTALIZE comes from a Good trial race
* The 1995 2001 2002 2007 winners did the same
* Two of these were 5 year olds like him
* He passes al my strongest angles
* TOTALIZE looks good value to me at 16/1

Selection

TOTALIZE 16/1 Each Way

CHRIS PEA GREEN 25/1 Win Bet






L i n g f i e l d 3.45

4/1 Absolutely So, 4/1 Perfect Pasture, 6/1 Iptisam
6/1 Rivellino, 8/1 Nocturn, 10/1 Alben Star
10/1 Woolfall Sovereign, 12/1 Diamond Charlie
12/1 Noble Deed, 20/1 Piscean, 25/1 Taajub
33/1 Clockmaker.

* This is a Class 2 handicap over 6f
* There are only 7 similar races in February
* Because of that I can't do much statistically
* TAAJUB is 7 with 1 run in 108 days so may lack fitness
* PISCEAN - I don't want a 9yo absent 105 days
* NOCTURN has a career high mark today
* I could not bet him with a 140 day absence
* Only 7 similar races but no winners came from 5f
* I looked at all similar races in January-February-March
* There are 32 of these races in these 3 months
* Horses that came from 5f races were only 3-62
* Those doing this aged 6 or more are 0-35
* WOOLFALL SOVEREIGN fails this as an 8yo
* With just 1 run in 92 days he is opposable
* DIAMOND CHARLIE is 6 and comes from 6f
* We know all 35 horses his age and older lost
* He has a 0-14 record above a Class 4 race
* CLOCKMAKER finished last over 7f last time out
* Not keen on his profile as an 8 year old
* His Draw is not a help either in Stall 12
* His only 2 runs over 6f were heavy defeats

Possibles

* IPTISAM is 5 and absent 50 days
* The odd 5yo won with a several week absence
* None with under 13 runs and IPTISAM has 8
* It is an unorthodox profile and hardly risk free
* IPTISAM has never run at Lingfield before

* RIVELLINO is an unexposed 4yo with 12 runs
* I looked at similar 4 year olds with 10-14 runs
* Those coming from 6f absent a month
* I found a 0-4 record
* RIVELLINO has a neutral profile

* PERFECT PASTURE is a 4yo that won last time out
* There are 7 of these Class 2 handicaps in February
* 4 year old winning last time were 2-4 a good record
* Both had shorter absences of 4 and 28 days
* PERFECT PASTURE has a 35 day break
* This is now a 7 timer for this horse
* PERFECT PASTURE has won off 57 67 73 78 88 93
* Today he tries to win 8 in a row off 100
* The main factors against him are these
* He is facing 5 weeks off the track
* He has to defy a mark of 100 from Stall 1

* ABSOLUTELY SO has just 4 career starts
* I looked at 32 similar 6f races January-March
* Horses aged 4 with under 6 runs were 2-8
* Both winners had 3 previous runs
* One came from a maiden the other a handicap
* They both won with significant absences
* ABSOLUTELY SO ran just 16 days ago
* No horse so lightly raced won running recently
* None tried though so I wouldn't fail him on that
* Another angle is that he comes from Class 4
* I looked at the 32 races between January-March
* Horses from Class 4 handicaps were only 2-51
* Both winners had 12-13 runs and he has just 4
* That just adds a layer of doubt for me about him

* NOBLE DEED should have run himself fit now
* He is hard to read going up in class today
* Unexposed so respected but he needs a career best

* ALBEN STAR won a 6f handicap last time
* I looked at 6 year olds who won last time out
* There were 3 horses with this profile
* They finished W 7 W
* ALBEN STAR is one of the better profiles


Selection

ALBEN STAR 12/1 Win Bet

NOBLE DEED 10/1 Win Bet




W a r w i c k 3.50

4/1 It´s A Doddle, 5/1 Tullyesker Hill, 6/1 He´s The Daddy
6/1 Night Of Passion, 8/1 Yellow Ball, 10/1 Kilrush
10/1 Westerly Breeze, 12/1 Garde Fou, 12/1 Mac Steamy
14/1 Premier Portrait, 20/1 Promised Wings
25/1 Cadeau George, 25/1 The Red Laird.

* This is a handicap hurdle over 3m 1f
* There are 26 similar races at this time of year

In the 1.50 Newbury today a 3m handicap hurdle
I have opposed a 5 year old (Andy Kelly). That's
a better class race but in 3m 1f Handicap Hurdles
in this class 5 year olds also score quite badly.

* TULLYESKER HILL is 5 from a Novice Hurdle
* Horses aged 5 from Novice hurdles are 0-8
* Horses aged 5 only have a 2-31 record anyway
* Both winners had 5 and 13 hurdle starts
* TULLYESKER HILL only has 3 runs
* As a 5 year old I don't like this profile
* IT´S A DODDLE comes from a 2 mile race
* I looked in the 26 races for horses from 2m
* I found a 0-17 record which is a worry
* HE´S THE DADDY comes from a Novice Handicap hurdle
* In 93 races horses doing this were 1-9
* That winner was a 7 year old like him
* He didn't win last time though
* He was lighter raced as well
* He had a much more recent run
* HE´S THE DADDY looks unsafe to me
* WESTERLY BREEZE comes from a Maiden Hurdle
* Horses doing this have a 0-7 record
* That worries me straight away about him
* I looked at horses from Novice or Maiden hurdles
* There was a disappointing 2-35 record
* These 2 horses had 4-5 previous hurdle races
* WESTERLY BREEZE only has 2 hurdle runs
* GARDE FOU also has 2 previous hurdle runs
* From a Novice Hurdle no winners were similar
* Both horses look unsafe to me
* PROMISED WINGS isn't running well enough
* THE RED LAIRD - I don't want a 11yo out of form
* CADEAU GEORGE is outclassed
* MAC STEAMY is absent far too long

Shortlist

* PREMIER PORTRAIT has a 70 day absence
* He comes from a 2m 5f handicap hurdle
* He has only had 3 previous hurdle runs
* I looked at horses absent 60 + days
* Those from 2m 5f handicaps with under 4 hurdle runs
* No horses tried to win with this profile
* PREMIER PORTRAIT - I'd make him a neutral
* His trainer says he heads into unknown territory
* He is unclear if he handles heavy or stays
* The Sire has several heavy ground 3m + winners

* YELLOW BALL is a Mare which complicates things
* in 26 races all mares were 0-42
* They have won similar races at 3m though
* Just not over 3m 1f which makes it messy
* YELLOW BALL comes from a Handicap Chase
* Unusual profile dropping from a 3m 3f chase
* I made her a negative last time
* No similar race went to any 6yo in January
* Horses from handicap chases are 4-33
* None of them were Mares like her
* None came from 3m 2f or further either
* She's impossible to rate
* All her hurdles form is in France
* Stable are flying which is a positive
* In light or other negatives I'd consider her

* NIGHT OF PASSION is a Mare
* We know these are 0-42 in 26 similar races
* Some have won at 3m though
* She needs a career best but it's not impossible
* If she wasn't a mare her profile would be fine
* Comes down to a judgement call

* KILRUSH is 8 and comes from a 2m 6f handicap hurdle
* I looked at 8 year olds doing this in the past month
* There was a decent 2-9 record
* One of these (Snake Chamer) won this race in 2011
* He also has track form in a similar race recently


Consider This

TULLYESKER HILL

I don't like his profile but it is based on a small sample
size but he looks well treated from a big stable and he
may find considerably improvement at 3m 1f. Here's why.

* Male Horses sired by Shantou
* Running over 3m or more
* Running on Soft or Heavy ground
* The complete record is 7 winners from 15 horses
* W 4 4 3 W 2 3 2 W W W 2 W W 4

Perhaps TULLYESKER HILL should be a saver ?


Selection

KILRUSH 20/1 Each Way

TULLYESKER HILL 4/1 Saver Bet



N e w b u r y 4.10

6/4 Smad Place, 7/4 Sam Winner
2/1 Mendip Express, 50/1 Danners.

The Game Spirit doesn't interest me from any
statistical point of view. Three horse race. It's
a guess really. The flaw with SAM WINNER is
heavy ground. He would like it faster. There's
a strong case for SMAD PLACE but he's fallen
once from just 2 Chase starts and It would not
surprise me if MENDIP EXPRESS just had too
much. He's built to go through a brick wall so
won't mind conditions. He's far more chasing
experience with several point 2 point wins as
well as 3 unbeaten runs over fences. He might
just have more guts and stamina and in a race
I can only guess in I prefer MENDIP EXPRESS.

Selection

MENDIP EXPRESS 13/8



L i n g f i e l d 4.20

7/2 Rigolleto, 4/1 My Kingdom, 9/2 Mac´s Power
5/1 Top Cop, 6/1 Haadeeth, 6/1 Parisian Pyramid
8/1 Lujeanie.

* Not enough time to do this race
* Would take too long as it's complicated
* I would NOT have selected TOP COP
* I would NOT have selected MAC´S POWER
* Both have raced just once in well over 100 days
* I don't have a strong view or selection




L i n g f i e l d 4.50

Evs Sloane Avenue, 5/4 Mbhali
10/1 Witch From Rome, 20/1 Dove Mountain.

This is a 3yo maiden over a mile. Impossible to
be confident as SLOANE AVENUE is unraced and
odds on. There are 44 similar races in February.
13 of the 44 winners were unraced so there can't
be any problem with those. MBHALI does have a
lot more experience but my angles are cautious.
First of all horses from 10f races were 0-11 and if
we take horses from 9f or more none managed a
win when having 3 or more previous runs as he
does. I've no idea what might win this but strictly
going on profiles SLOANE AVENUE looks the one.



W o l v e r h a m p t o n 6.20

3/1 John Potts, 4/1 Do More Business
9/2 Mick Dundee, 6/1 Teide Peak, 7/1 Super Duplex
8/1 Shomberg, 10/1 Just A Pound
14/1 Stamp Duty.

* This is an Amateur riders handicap over a mile
* Only 12 similar races in February
* There are 199 similar races for all jockeys
* JOHN POTTS may not be fully fit
* He has raced only once since July last year
* Thats very worrying for a 9 year old
* TEIDE PEAK is 5 and comes from 12f
* There were some unexposed 5yo's doing that
* All had at least 8 weeks absence though
* With limited 8f form he is risky
* SUPER DUPLEX comes from a 12f race
* As a 7yo absent 80 days it's not a strong profile
* SHOMBERG wouldn't be my first choice
* Not as a 5yo absent 184 days
* STAMP DUTY isn't running well enough
* JUST A POUND is a 4yo with a months absence
* He also has to come from a 7f race
* Similar horses were 1-59
* That winner had fewer runs than he does
* I don't like his profile enough
* MICK DUNDEE has the same profile
* Not a profile of jockey I would want to trust
* DO MORE BUSINESS has 2 runs in 15 days
* He has to be the fittest horse in the race
* He hasn't yet won over a mile yet
* He has had several genuine excuses why not
* I'm hoping his fitness gets him home

Selection

DO MORE BUSINESS 4/1

Each Way


****************************************************
****************************************************