0 Account Bet
6 Race Discussed
1 Selection
0 Profiles/Preview Selection




Thursdays Message at 7.30am

This will unusually be Sent at 7.30am
There will probably be just one full preview
I have a hospital appointment I can't avoid
I'll send Improved Paddy Power Gold Cup Stats
Because of the 7.30 am time I won't stake a bet




B e t t i n g M e n u

No Account Bet


1 Selection

Kempton 4.50

ELUSIVITY 11/2

Each Way

The public view with this horse will probably
be that he has an obvious chance but doesn't
look safe having never raced over 5f on sand
before and I think that is a fair summary. I like
him as a horse that loves small fields and one
with a lot of recent runs in huge fields against
him. I just think in a small field he's overpriced.
I'd rather take him than play on heavy ground.



Profiles and Previews Selections

No further Selections

Just a mix of shortlists and pointers




Todays Editorial

Tomorrow's message has got to be earlier
than usual and shorter. After that we have
a big three day Cheltenham Fixture Friday
to Sunday. There are several races where
my hands are tied at the moment. Mainly a
lot of small fields and races full of first time
out horses so I'm not to concerned about
too many detailed previews in these races.


I'm not aiming for brilliant messages until
we hit Friday's 3 day Cheltenham fixture.


I will probe a lot more at Cheltenham given
the bigger prices will compensate for risks
we will have to take so I do expect to find a
lot more than I would do earlier in the week.


One of those weeks where the racing will
get better each day and the messages can
do the same responding to better choice.





T u e s d a y s S u m m a r y

Another slow day yesterday with just 3 previews
and one winner back from that. We needed some
all weather support yesterday because at least it
would have taken us away from decisions about
which National Hunt horses are fit or need a run.





P r o f i l e s @ P r e v i e w s



A y r 12.50

3/1 Azure Glamour, 3/1 Lochnell, 11/2 Eshtiaal
8/1 Gold Opera, 10/1 Danehills Well, Resolute Reformer
12/1 Cliff Lane, 12/1 U Name It, 16/1 Clenagh Castle
16/1 Mclaren Vale, 25/1 Royal Sea Breeze
25/1 Teddy Tee, 40/1 Victoria Oats.

This is a maiden hurdle over 2m4f-2m5f
I've looked at all similar races in November
There is one statistic that puts me in a tough place
Look at horses that last ran over 2 miles
When having just the one race this season
Horses aged 5 or more doing this were 0-26
This takes out 3 market leaders in one fell swoop
LOCHNELL - DANEHILLS WELL - AZURE GLAMOUR fail it
Hard to know whether we can trust that statistic
We don't know the ability of some others
My angles say ignore these three
MCLAREN VALE - I have stamina concerns
They say consider these 3 as an alternative
RESOLUTE REFORMER - GOLD OPERA - ESHTIAAL
I'm going to sit this one out and watch
RESOLUTE REFORMER 9/1 is shortlisted
GOLD OPERA 6/1 is shortlisted

No Selection



E x e t e r 1.10

8/13 Via Sundown, 3/1 Ustica, 9/1 Dashaway
16/1 Riversbridge, 20/1 Oh Devee, 20/1 Troika Steppes
25/1 Dawson City, 50/1 Piccadilly Circus.

The 3 main runners in this Novice Hurdle are
not matchable to any winners. They are almost
right but not quite. If you want to follow directly
a statistical path then RIVERSBRIDGE comes
out best as an unraced 5 year old. Of course it
is impossible to know if he is fit or has ability.
I need to make the point that RIVERSBRIDGE
has the best profile. My other option given an
awkward race on heavy ground is DASHAWAY
each way. On Breeding stats he is the safer bet.
Forced to choose it is DASHAWAY each way.


A y r 1.50

6/4 Redpender, 5/2 Doubledisdoubledat
11/2 Dingo Bay, 11/2 Oscar Lateen, 8/1 Markem.

This is a handicap chase over 2m4f-2m5f
If I look at seasonal debutants aged 7
From Novice Handicap Chases
There were 3 winners and they had 6-7-8 chase runs
DOUBLEDISDOUBLEDAT only has 2 and topweight
I can't match OSCAR LATEEN to any winners
Not as a 6yo from a novice handicap chase this year
I think REDPENDER has a safer profile
DINGO BAY is also like a winner
I like REDPENDER and DINGO BAY best
REDPENDER would be my first option



B a n g o r 2.00

6/1 Bob Ford, 6/1 Whats Happening
7/1 Dursey Sound, 7/1 Knock A Hand
8/1 Howard´s Legacy, 10/1 Herdsman
14/1 Count Salazar, 16/1 Across The Bay
20/1 Ikorodu Road.

This is a 3m handicap chase
Statistically I should oppose BOB FORD
He won last time over just short of 3m
With 1 run this year all like him that tried failed
COUNT SALAZAR comes out badly
Any number of seasonal debutants could win
Much depends on their age and how many chase runs
Not keen on debutants aged 10 +
IKORODU ROAD and ACROSS THE BAY fail this
KNOCK A HAND and HERDSMAN are shortlistable
HOWARD´S LEGACY and WHATS HAPPENING are best
They are more matchable to similar winners
It was always going to come down to trainer trust
Who has the horses geared up and fit first time
HOWARD´S LEGACY is more exposed. Maybe a saver
WHATS HAPPENING has the safest profile here




B a n g o r 2.30

5/2 Desert Recluse, 4/1 Knight Bachelor
5/1 Vital Evidence, 6/1 Colin´s Brother
7/1 Twelve Strings, 7/1 Zaidiyn, 10/1 Mad Jack Mytton
33/1 Estourah, 66/1 Korngold.

This is a 2m Novice Hurdle
I want to oppose DESERT RECLUSE
Profile not good enough and 33/1 winning last time
My main problem is what has happened since then
Sold for £1k and downgraded stables

ZAIDIYN - 4yo with no national hunt runs
Similar 4yo's with a recent run on the flat were 1-44
Not good enough to interest me
COLIN´S BROTHER is 4 from a maiden bumper
From maiden bumpers you want 1-2 runs
You also want a win last time and he lost with 3 runs
VITAL EVIDENCE needs to improve but is a threat

KNIGHT BACHELOR is 4 and won a bumper last year
With 1 NHF run horses with his profile were 2-7
KNIGHT BACHELOR has the best profile




K e m p t o n 4.50

7/2 Megaleka, 9/2 Captain Secret, 5/1 Elusivity
5/1 Sleepy Sioux, 6/1 Holley Shiftwell, 6/1 Viva Verglas
10/1 Even Stevens, 16/1 Boom The Groom.

* This is a 5f handicap for 0-95 rated horses
* We have 38 similar races in November
* BOOM THE GROOM is 3 and drops from 6f
* I looked at 3 year olds doing that in the last month
* None managed it with under 16 runs
* BOOM THE GROOM only has 9 runs
* I'll be surprised if he wins on his last few runs
* CAPTAIN SECRET is a 3yo filly but I have doubts
* A filly with an absence and just 1 run since May
* Never having run at 5f she looks too risky
* SLEEPY SIOUX is a 3yo filly but not a safe one
* She ran badly last time and has only 1 sand run
* HOLLEY SHIFTWELL is a filly absent 39 days
* Just 1 run in 51 days I don't fancy her enough
* If you look at fillies in these races 3 year olds are best
* Fillies aged 4 or more are just 1-39
* Fillies aged 4 themselves are 0-18
* HOLLEY SHIFTWELL fails this
* MEGALEKA is another 4yo filly and these are 0-18
* Her best win was off 80 in a Class 4 handicap
* Today she is racing off 90 in a Class 3 handicap
* She needs a career best to win this
* Her numbers on Sand are not good enough so far
* VIVA VERGLAS is 1-1 on Sand winning at Wolves
* His last 3 runs have been heavy defeats
* 1 Good run from 5 in his 3yo season
* I wouldn't say he hasn't trained on
* He looks like he's suffering from the handicapper
* Winning first time as a 2yo has hurt him ever since
* On his recent runs he still looks badly treated

Shortlist

* EVEN STEVENS is 6 and absent 4 weeks
* The vast majority of winners had more recent runs
* Best on Sand this is his run in months on the sand
* You have to shortlist him on his numbers
* He has yet to prove he is as good on this track

* ELUSIVITY is an exposed 6 year old
* He only has 4 runs on the Sand and none at 5f
* I would still see him as a positive
* All this horse needs is a small field
* He is 0-26 running in fields of 12 or more
* He is 0-25 running in Class 2 or higher
* He needs Class 3 or lower in fields of 11 or less
* ELUSIVITY gets that today and is a player

Selection

ELUSIVITY 11/2

Each Way


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