No Main Account bet

1 Optional Account bet

9 Previews


There are 9 previews today split between the main
meetings at Newmarket (5) and Cheltenham (4). I'm
giving Ripon a miss. Not one of my best tracks and
I don't like the shape of the field sizes there. It may
be safer to stay at Newmarket and Cheltenham on
a difficult day. Both the tracks require a completely
different set of skills so interested to see which has
the best results in the message which has one bet.


1 Optional Account Bet


Newmarket 2.55

JOHANN STRAUSS 2/1

Win Bet








CHELTENHAM

I think this is a harder card than Newmarket. Three
of my previews force me to make assumptions and
don't leave me wanting to stake a bet. If there was
a race at Cheltenham I liked more than the others
it would be the 3.50pm. I don't feel it's enough for
any staked bet but it felt clearer than other races.

Cheltenham 3.50

IMPERIAL CIRCUS 8/1 Win Bet
ACKERTAC 7/2 Saver Bet




NEWMARKET


Newmarket 2.55

JOHANN STRAUSS 2/1


I can see the reasons why some don't like him and
see why he is weak in the market. It is easy to get
blindsided in this game and see things that are not
there and every now and then a horse comes along
and gets stuffed when you think it's a banker and it
could easily be the case with this horse. He comes
here after a disappointment but I see an excuse for
that defeat that virtually nobody else will be aware
of and whilst he may make me look foolish I think
he is the best bet on the day and a ridiculous price.

I feel JOHANN STRAUSS is the Jewel in the Crown
of the message. If he gets beaten then it will be a
real dogfight to get anything out of the other races
which feel more Silver than Gold. Results may not
turn out that way but that is how it feels right now.

I am tempted to have an each way double today


Newmarket 2.55 - Johann Strauss 2/1

Newmarket 5.10 - Eastern Belle 2/1


I won't bother with that and will instead rely upon
the win bet for JOHANN STRAUSS. I could easily
go with him on the Main Account as I do like him.

I won't bother with that. I'd prefer to save that for
bigger priced horses. I also feel my form is really
strong at the moment given the time of year and
the Optional Account is doing brilliantly and I do
not need a short priced loser on the main account
that gets under my skin affecting good judgement.





No Message Tomorrow

Normally there is no Racing on Good Friday but we
are being squeezed again with a trumped up card
on the sand and Musselburgh so I'm going to ignore
it and have a break. I have now done 14 messages
in 15 days and with Saturday and the bank holiday
coming up it is the right time to break. No message.






W e d n e s d a y 's S u m m a r y

It wasn't a vintage message but I was happy enough
with the two bets. The bottom of the message was a
defensive one with savers and split stakes designed
to not lose money which worked in several races so
it wasn't a bad message just a workmanlike one that
did its best. The main bets both ran well. I am happy
with NUBAR BOY Each Way. He never looked like he
would be unplaced at any time in the race. He went
clear with favourite and went long odds on and only
just got touched off late. I think hindsight now shows
that was an excellent bet. MICK´S YER MAN was just
speculative at 16/1 each way and although he never
looked like winning it he was only beaten in a photo
for 3rd place and ran with credit. Not too bad overall.




P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S



C h e l t e n h a m 2.05

9/2 Free Thinking, 5/1 As I Am, 11/2 Run Ructions Run
11/2 The Pirate´s Queen, 6/1 Cloudante 17/2 Emily Gray
10/1 Gambling Girl, 16/1 Roja Dove 18/1 Norfolk Sky

* This is a Listed Class Mares Novice Hurdle
* Only 2 of these races have been run so no angles
* AS I AM has a 5lbs edge on official ratings
* Given she is absent 108 days I would look elsewhere
* GAMBLING GIRL is also rejected with a long absence
* CLOUDANTE wouldn't be my first choice
* Not going from Catterick to Cheltenham
* FREE THINKING has failed so far in this grade
* Lack of Course form makes his murkier
* It means we have to make assumptions
* I think I'd stay with Newbury Listed Handicap Mares form
* RUN RUCTIONS RUN won the Mares Final at Newbury
* THE PIRATE´S QUEEN was a close 2nd in the same race
* She could get her revenge at these weights

Selection

THE PIRATE´S QUEEN 7/2

Each Way




C h e l t e n h a m 2.40

2/1 Baby Shine, 7/2 She Ranks Me, 7/2 Tempest River
8/1 Me And Ben, 9/1 Possibly Flora, 10/1 Tea Caddy
12/1 Queen´s Bay.

* This is a Mares Novice Handicap Chase final over 2m 5f
* This is messy statistically for 3 reasons
* This has been run at different tracks at slightly different distances
* It has also been run in March before at times
* It is the only race of its kind in the Spring though
* Previous winners had the following runs this season
* 5 6 3 5 6 7 7 3 10 5 5
* QUEEN´S BAY only has 1 run this season a disadvantage
* Previous winners had the following Chase runs
* 5 3 3 3 3 5 5 4 9 5 5
* BABY SHINE has 8 Chase runs more than most winners
* That would worry me when she also has topweight
* BABY SHINE is also unproven at this track
* No horse won coming down from 2m (0-23)
* TEA CADDY fails this and doesn't appeal
* ME AND BEN is only rated 104 and is out of the weights
* I would question whether she has the class
* SHE RANKS ME - Nothing wrong with her profile
* She hasn't shown enough to suggest she is well handicapped
* TEMPEST RIVER has a decent enough profile
* Main concern is she didn't jump well at Cheltenham in January
* POSSIBLY FLORA won last time out
* That was only a 0-100 handicap chase though
* That was Class 5 and this is a Listed race
* She is up significantly in class today

There is some history in this race that suggests we should
concentrate on the horses that achieved Listed form over
hurdles and better still if it came in a Mares Hurdles Final
as several past winners managed that. This is a pointer to
BABY SHINE and TEMPEST RIVER who both ran on this day
last year in the Mares Hurdle Final and I prefer the latter.

Selection

TEMPEST RIVER 100/30

Win Bet




N e w m a r k e t 2.55

6/5 Johann Strauss, 9/2 Sudden Wonder, 5/1 Seagull Star
10/1 Hunters Creek, 12/1 Observational, 12/1 Shafrah
16/1 Lyn Valley 20/1 Emaratiya Ana, 25/1 Lanark, 33/1 Maxie T
50/1 Cadeaux Power 50/1 Dancealot, 50/1 Munfallet, 50/1 Roskilly
100/1 Ganymede 100/1 Ophir.

I am quite looking forward to seeing JOHANN STRAUSS here
in this 3yo Sales race. There is a 5 year history to the race so
not much we can say here. JOHANN STRAUSS is clearly best
horse on past form despite being a maiden. He is rated 108 in
a race where his 3 market rivals are rated 96 94 81. There are
some concerns. He was beaten last time by an 86 rated horse.
His Racing Post Rating was poor. It was 15 days ago on Heavy
ground and this is quite a quick return to the track. You have
to make a decision about whether to oppose him or back him.

I want to be with JOHANN STRAUSS. The opposition must be
respected but none have achieved as much as him. I feel the
defeat last time is better than it looked. He would have been
short of fitness from this stable. It was heavy ground. He had
a poor ride. If you ask me what is the worst draw bias in the
game at any track I would say the Leopardstown Mile when
you are drawn in Stall 1 as JOHANN STRAUSS was. Go back
to 2007 and look at every mile race there with only as few as
7 runners. You find horses that raced from Stall 1 were 0-122.
I think it's the hardest Draw in Racing to win from that Stall.

I accept he might be quirky and we have known unknowns
like the return to the track so quickly. I am overlooking this.
I think his positives far outweigh the risks. I think we will be
getting a much bigger price than we should because of last
time out and I feel he had a very good excuse for that race.

There is a right price and a wrong price for every horse and
I feel JOHANN STRAUSS is a bigger price than he should be.

* Anyone wanting an each way double
* Could do worse than using Johann Strauss for this
* You could put him with Eastern Belle in the 5.10pm

Selection

JOHANN STRAUSS 2/1





C h e l t e n h a m 3.15

5/1 L´unique, 15/2 Koolala, 8/1 Blue Buttons, 8/1 Polly Peachum
9/1 Hidden Identity, 9/1 Lily Waugh, 9/1 Top Totti, 12/1 Beyeh
12/1 Cailin Annamh, 14/1 One Lucky Lady, 16/1 Fairytale Theatre
16/1 Loyaute, 20/1 Brijomi Queen, 20/1 Down Ace, 20/1 Lovey Dovey
20/1 Luci Di Mezzanotte, 25/1 Alder Mairi, 25/1 Mrs Peachey
25/1 Natural Spring, 25/1 Point The Toes.

* This is a 2m 5f Mares Handicap Hurdle.
* There are 13 renewals of this race
* I will just list some of the more important stats
* Recent winners had 8 9 4 5 9 4 29 9 4 13 4 5 hurdle starts
* 12 of the 13 winners had Listed or Graded Class form
* 12 of the 13 winners came from 2m 4f or further
* 12 of the 13 winners had at least 4 runs this season
* No horse was beaten in an ordinary Novice Hurdle last time
* 12 of the 13 winners had no more than 11st 4lbs
* No winners came from Chase
* 12 of the 13 winners ran within 37 days
* The following horses fail one or more of these stats
* Brijomi Queen - Beyeh - Cailin Annamh
* L'unique - Koolala - Loyaute- Polly Peachum
* I think the strongest profiles are these
* BLUE BUTTONS - LILY WAUGH
* LILY WAUGH each way 6/1 is my suggestion



N e w m a r k e t 3.30

11/8 Aljamaaheer, 4/1 Hamza, 5/1 Tropics
7/1 Dinkum Diamond, 12/1 Heaven´s Guest
16/1 Es Que Love, 16/1 Racy, 20/1 Hitchens.

* The Abernant Stakes is a Group race over 6f
* Quite a small field this year
* ALJAMAAHEER is the joint highest rated horse on 116
* TROPICS is also rated 116
* I don't really want to be with either of these
* ALJAMAAHEER is a short price and drops from 8f to 6f
* He hasn't raced at 6f since his 2yo maiden win
* Hard to know just how effective he will be over this distance
* TROPIS was beaten 12 lengths on his first run of the year
* There are 7 past winners that had a run that season
* Those beaten 5 or more lengths in that race were 0-28
* TROPIS fails that and has a Group 3 penalty as well
* HEAVEN´S GUEST technically fails that as well
* I think margins are tight between these horses
* I don't see a good enough case to bet the short price favourite
* His trainer hasn't had a winner first time out this year yet
* The drop in trip whilst hard to know about could easily catch him out
* I would rather be with HAMZA each way
* Admittedly coming from a Meydan 5f race isn't easy to judge
* It was a track record though and all his best numbers are at 6f
* At the prices I'd rather go this way than the favourite

Selection

HAMZA 7/2

Each Way




C h e l t e n h a m 3.50

7/2 Ackertac, 6/1 Imperial Circus, 6/1 Time For Rupert
15/2 Gauvain, 8/1 Bradley, 8/1 Forgotten Gold, 8/1 Golden Chieftain
9/1 Sire Collonges, 10/1 Mon Parrain, 14/1 Quartz De Thaix.

* This is a Handicap Chase over an extended 3m 1f
* QUARTZ DE THAIX isn't running well enough
* BRADLEY may just want a drop in Grade
* Whenever he has run in Class 2 or higher he has failed
* All his wins are in a lower grade than this
* MON PARRAIN has two runs this season
* I see him as a little underraced
* This race has been dominated by 8-9 year olds
* GAUVAIN is 12 and has never won beyond 2m 5f
* His form over this far just makes me feel he wants shorter
* GOLDEN CHIEFTAIN ran his best race last time out
* Not yet convinced he is ready to return to form
* SIRE COLLONGES comes from the Cheltenham Cross Country
* His trainer won this in 2008 with a horse doing the same
* That winner had much less weight though
* This race has been won far more often by lightweights
* TIME FOR RUPERT is not a horse I'd like to rely on
* I Think he may want the ground softer than this
* FORGOTTEN GOLD has a chance but not convinced
* Not by his jumping or his track form
* FORGOTTEN GOLD is sired by Dr Massini
* If you run all his runners over 3m 1f and more
* And take those in Class 2 or higher all 31 that tried lost
* I don't feel I have a killer stat against him
* Just not keen on several small parts of his profile


Shortlist

* IMPERIAL CIRCUS looks well handicapped
* I have excuses for some of his runs
* He won first time out this season at Ludlow
* I can excuses his Cheltenham defeat in November
* He was ridden by a very inexperienced pilot that day
* His Cross Country run in December is excellent
* Not least as he wasn't bred to stay and was only a 7yo
* It's his last run when thrashed at Exeter that bothers me
* He started favourite but was beaten 36 lengths
* Perhaps a 95 day break left him short of fitness
* Ignore that run and he has a serious chance

* ACKERTAC is trained by Tim Vaughan
* His Cheltenham runners are now 0-118
* Personally that wouldn't be a statistic I believe in
* He had 3 horses placed here yesterday running great races
* I wouldn't use it as an argument against ACKERTAC
* What I was concerned about is a lack of recent runs
* He has raced just once in 106 days
* That said the 2013 and 2012 winners did the same
* They only had 1 run in the previous 3 months as well
* They came here Fresh like him so I have to shortlist him

Selection

IMPERIAL CIRCUS 8/1 Win Bet

ACKERTAC 7/2 Saver Bet




N e w m a r k e t 4.05

4/6 Toormore, 5/2 Be Ready, 12/1 Anjaal
14/1 The Grey Gatsby, 16/1 Postponed
20/1 Patentar.

The Craven Stakes has to strong angles that don't apply
this year and I wouldn't see this race as one suited to a
statistical approach. I think we have to concede that the
horse that has proven the most is TOORMORE and He is
the rightful favourite but BE READY comes with a serious
reputation and I just wonder if there is a case to bet him
each way. I would want 9/4 and that may not be available
but if he was 9/4 with a quarter the odds a place it might
just be worth siding with BE READY each way. If the price
is not available I would happily sit this race out.



N e w m a r k e t 4.40

5/2 Just The Judge, 4/1 Fencing, 11/2 French Navy
11/2 Mull Of Killough, 8/1 Danadana, 10/1 Elkaayed
12/1 First Mohican, 12/1 Gospel Choir, 16/1 Boom And Bust.

I don't have a strong opinion in the Earl Of Sefton this year
and don't feel confident about trusting my angles. A statistic
that has stood since 1971 is that no horses aged 8 more has
won something MULL OF KILLOUGH has to overcome. I am
not sold on JUST THE JUDGE. She isn't a negative at all but
I just wasn't keen to commit to a 4yo filly first time out when
so many from the stable have been better for a run this year.
I don't like ELKAAYED enough over this distance. Not bullish
here and there are horses like FRENCH NAVY that could win
but given the choice I am staying with FENCING Each Way.

He is not easy to read but has plenty of ability and a run this
season and decent excuses for his defeats. The ground was
against him at Doncaster last time and he didn't get the best
ride and only lost 0.25 lengths. The Trip was too short in the
Lennox at Goodwood when he also faced a longer absence
than any previous 4yo winners of that race. He is very smart
on his day and with a recent run and red hot stableform I'm
going with him each way as the sensible bet in this contest.

Selection

FENCING 4/1

Each Way




N e w m a r k e t 5.10

2/1 Eastern Belle, 5/1 Hadaatha, 6/1 Solar Moon
6/1 Wedding Wish, 7/1 Executrix, 10/1 Venus Grace, 14/1 Dorraar
14/1 Ramshackle, 16/1 Ermine Ruby, 16/1 Solar Magic, 20/1 Etaab
20/1 Margaret´s Mission, 20/1 Red Velour, 25/1 Perfect Light
25/1 Sotise, 33/1 Lady Horatia, 33/1 Popping Candy, 33/1 Sighora
33/1 Spring Fling, 100/1 Emporium.

You won't find a risk free play here given a large field of 3yo
maiden fillies many unraced and without a clear advantage
in the draw. The safest play is surely EASTERN BELLE but in
an each way double. He comes with experience from a Top
class stable and has already achieved a Racing Post Rating
better than 8 of the last 9 experienced horses winning this in
recent years. His main market rival is unraced and although
everything here is circumstantial this looks the best option.

Selection

EASTERN BELLE 2/1

* I'd prefer him in an each way double
* I would put him with Johann Strauss 2.55pm

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