No Account Bet


M e s s a g e C o n t e n t


Today there are 10 previews so it may not be one
to follow especially with some good quality races.
I am ignoring Wolverhampton tonight. It is spread
between Lingfield (6), Warwick (3) and Exeter (1).




M e s s a g e H i g h l i g h t s


I am hoping to start the message W W but I dont
want to put either horse up. ZAMRA (1.30) is too
short a price. I like MATRAASH (2.40) but decided
not to trust the jockey or the race with a full bet.

The next 3 races are bottom message standard
but I could have winners. Hard to predict these.

Exeter 3.20

ASTIGOS 6/4 Win Bet to half stakes
STORM ALERT 7/1 Win Bet to half stakes

My angles suggest the second favourite may not
win. The strategy here is to simply split stake both
the 1st and 3rd favourites. I can't make this a bet
as I am not sure I have the right horse as there is
some strength in depth. I like the staking and the
saver on Astigos but not sure Storm Alert is right.

The next couple of previews don't stand out to me
and then there is a Warwick 3m 5f handicap chase.

Warwick 4.40

FREDO 71

Each Way

I am betting FREDO partly on an assumption. His
record over fences is patchy but I think that if we
ignore his form in Listed and Graded races and
ignore his Cheltenham runs as he has seemed to
struggle there then there he begins to look better.

It was close today. I nearly went with FREDO but
I just decided to play safer. It just bothers me his
last course and distance run was poor and I have
had a string of similar bets recently and I wanted
a change from that. I can now smell a busy period
coming. I look for momentum and timing issues
and both feel they are coming right now. I could
have restarted the bets today but I going to wait
for tomorrow. I am coming right any day now.



T h u r s d a y ' s R e v i e w

It was a bet free day in the end but three previews
produced nothing back. It was a luckless message
though. The first selection Fell in a hurdle race so
nothing we can do about that. Then UP AND GO a
horse I feel should be followed went down beaten
in a photo by a short head. It all came down to the
Wolverhampton race and you are in trouble if you
need to rely on that track for a winner. Not a great
message or much luck but it was interrupted work.


P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S



L i n g f i e l d 1.30

5/4 Zamra, 4/1 Tax Reform, 6/1 Honiton Lace
6/1 Moonlit Sky, 8/1 Jammy Moment, 16/1 Brycewise
16/1 Wings Of Fire, 50/1 Jazz Bay.

This maiden needs to be watched closely as there is
one good solid favourite in ZAMRA but his stable are
also running the unraced MOONLIT SKY and there is
the annoying possibility of being embarrassed if you
bet the favourite. I will be very surprised if that does
happen here. I feel ZAMRA will beat his stablemate.
I can't rule out 4yo TAX REFORM either. He is from a
small stable but they won this in 2012 with another
4 year old who floored a fancied 3 year old. I want
to side with ZAMRA though as she gets both weight
for age and a sex allowance. It means she gets 24lbs
off TAX REFORM who is rated 67. Sometimes I often
underestimate 4yo's in maidens but 24lbs is a lot and
I have to side with ZAMRA. I couldn't put anyone off
a split stake bet. TAX REFORM as a place bet to half
stakes with the other half on ZAMRA. That looks safe
but for those that prefer win bets it has to be ZAMRA.

Selection

ZAMRA 11/10




L i n g f i e l d 2.00

5/2 Matraash, 5/2 Officer In Command, 4/1 Mahadee
13/2 Conducting, 8/1 Copperwood, 12/1 Lily Edge
14/1 Auden.

This is a Mile selling race. It's a badly framed 7 runner
race. The weights say a small edge to MATRAASH with
OFFICER IN COMMAND breathing down his neck. I feel
that MATRAASH does have the safer profile. He has 3lbs
in hand according to the handicapper. It could be quite
relevant that OFFICER IN COMMAND has raced once in
the last 84 days not a lot for an 8yo and MATRAASH has
raced 4 times in that period. MATRAASH also has better
course and distance numbers. There are only 25 similar
races in February. I wouldn't trust my angles with a size
that small but in 25 races no horse aged 5 or more won
a race absent more than 4 weeks and CONDUCTING has
that to overcome. I thought MAHADEE had a fair chance
and I repeat the warning about trusting stats with small
sample sizes but horses from 12f races like him have a
worryingly poor 1-60 record with the only winner a 4yo.
My angles say 9yo MAHADEE is vulnerable. LILY EDGE
is rejected as a mare with only the 1 run since last July.
The horse persuading me most has to be MATRAASH.

Selection

MATRAASH 11/4

Win Bet




W a r w i c k 2.10

5/2 Cogry, 5/1 Super Lunar, 8/1 Pink Gin
12/1 Georgie Lad, 16/1 I´m A Rocker, 40/1 Vineman
50/1 A Keen Sense.

This 2m 3f Novice Hurdle is complicated. Not least
by SUPER LUNAR who's unraced from a top stable.
Could easily win this but as he faces 2 last time out
winners surely the percentage call is to look for an
experienced horse. PINK GIN is a neutral positive
so another I can't rule out. Purely on my profiles I
would just shade this to COGRY who is my choice.

Selection

COGRY 11/10

Win Bet




Warwick 2.40

7/2 Walter De La Mare, 5/1 Pagham Belle, 15/2 Dorry K
9/1 Kyles Faith, 9/1 Lost In Newyork, 11/1 Philharmonic Hall
12/1 Tribal Dance, 12/1 Young Lou, 14/1 Tempuran
14/1 Tom O´tara, 16/1 Benefitofhindsight, 16/1 Queenswood Bay
33/1 Spunky, 66/1 Russian Romance, 100/1 Photogenique.

This Handicap Hurdle looks impossible and made no
easier by 3 past winners all with different profiles. It's
not safe to play. I just wanted to try and break it down,

* DORRY K - Hate her profile as a 5yo mare
* Having 1 run this season and an absence and just 3 runs
* PHILHARMONIC HALL - I couldn't bet him first time out
* I'd avoid these seasonal debutants as well
* QUEENSWOOD BAY - TOM O´TARA - RUSSIAN ROMANCE
* SPUNKY is underraced this season
* TRIBAL DANCE may fail for a combination of issues
* His 94 day break having had 17 hurdle runs already
* Both those things combined with topweight
* BENEFITOFHINDSIGHT - rejected from maiden hurdle
* TEMPURAN - PHOTOGENIQUE don't offer enough
* WALTER DE LA MARE should run his race and go close
* He is really very modest though and limited in ability

Shortlist

* YOUNG LOU - More positives than negatives

* LOST IN NEWYORK has to be one of the better bets
* He is very similar to last years winner Gizzit
* Both came from the same Novice Handicap hurdle
* Both had 14 previous hurdle runs with several that season

* PAGHAM BELLE also comes out well
* Three mares aged 6 won with acceptably close profiles

Selection

LOST IN NEWYORK 5/1 Win Bet
PAGHAM BELLE 5/1 Saver Bet




L i n g f i e l d 3.00

3/1 Volito, 7/2 Hamis Al Bin, 5/1 Assertive Agent
8/1 Mossgo, 8/1 Reginald Claude, 10/1 Welsh Inlet
14/1 Hinton Admiral, 14/1 Metropolitan Chief
16/1 Microlight, 33/1 Time For Lambrini, 33/1 Waspy.

This is a scrappy 6f handicap. Not my kind of race and no
real attempt to preview the race. I think VOLITO has a far
better profile than ASSERTIVE AGENT. He looks far better
raced recently. He has a 2 day which will hopefully help.
I looked at fillies in these races with under 13 career runs.
There was a weak 1-35 record and that winner had a long
absence. ASSERTIVE AGENT only has 8 runs and did not
come out like any winners. Neither did VOLITO mind but
of the two I preferred him. VOLITO is more likely to place
than win and I'd be interested in any split stake bet. It is
easy to go with HAMIS AL BIN on recent runs but he has
never ran here before adding to the complications. This
could go to WELSH INLET but she is 0-14 at this distance.

* VOLITO is preferred to Assertive Agent
* VOLITO - I think his most likely position is a place
* HAMIS AL BIN - Good chance but no track form to judge him on





E x e t e r 3.20

5/4 Astigos, 7/2 Thomas Junior, 7/1 Storm Alert
10/1 Old Tricks, 10/1 Virginia Ash, 12/1 Decimus
14/1 Lundy Sky, 16/1 Paddy The Oscar, 16/1 Pyleigh Lass.

* This is a handicap hurdle just short of 3m
* I looked at all similar races between 2m 6f and 3m 1f
* THOMAS JUNIOR is a nice prospect but his profile is unsafe
* I looked at horses from Novice or maiden hurdles
* Horses aged 5 doing this were just 2-34
* The 2 winners had 3 and 4 hurdle runs
* THOMAS JUNIOR only has 2 hurdle runs
* Both winners came from at least 2m 6f
* THOMAS JUNIOR only comes from 2m1f
* Horses aged 5 doing this from 2m 4f or shorter are 0-16
* Horses from Novice/maidens Hurdles over 2m 4f or less are 5-63
* They were all aged 6-7 and had 6 3 3 9 4 hurdle runs
* THOMAS JUNIOR fails my angles
* LUNDY SKY wouldn't be first choice first time out
* DECIMUS looks unsafe from a Novice Handicap Chase
* OLD TRICKS - Average profile. Not sure ground suits

Shortlist

* VIRGINIA ASH is a 6yo with a recent run
* He's a bit more exposed than ideal for a 6yo
* Most had under 11 hurdle runs and he has 14

* STORM ALERT - Can't be ruled out despite absence
* I found a winner like him

* ASTIGOS should go very close on his last run
* It was 6 days ago in a better class of race

Selection

Split Stake Bet

ASTIGOS 6/4 Win Bet to half stakes

STORM ALERT 7/1 Win Bet to half stakes





L i n g f i e l d 3.30

3/1 Seamster, 4/1 Avondream, 4/1 Consistant
6/1 Ghost Train, 9/1 West Leake, 10/1 Homeboy
12/1 Waterloo Dock, 20/1 Chester Deelyte
20/1 Little Choosey, 25/1 Glenlini.

This is a division two of the 6f handicap. Again low grade
stuff. The obvious negative for me is AVONDREAM with 3
runs. In similar races all 24 horses from maidens like him
were beaten. I just wish he had been shorter. I was quite
interested in GHOST TRAIN each way but his strike rate is
poor. He has only won a 5 runner race and I wonder if he
is a small field horse. He has also had injury problems to
deal with. CONSISTANT is a big runner but no form here
makes him and the race harder to sort. SEAMSTER should
be one of the stronger runners. Could well be a saver but
I don't see in as automatic choice. I do keep coming back
to GHOST TRAIN. Last time out he was second chasing a
horse that stole the race. Nothing else challenged and he
did look on good terms with himself. Running his profile I
found an acceptable 1-6 record. He has more course form
and backclass than CONSISTANT who I do fear. That gets
him the verdict in a race that could be staked differently.

* GHOST TRAIN was my prefered option
* Seamster and Consistant are legitimate options as savers
* GHOST TRAIN has been backed from 5/1 to 11/4
* Thats rather annoying now and snookers me
* I will now switch to a better priced option
* CONSISTANT to win. GHOST TRAIN now a saver.




L i n g f i e l d 4.00

3/1 Regal Dan, 4/1 Favourite Treat, 4/1 Forceful Appeal
5/1 Pearl Nation, 7/1 Al´s Memory, 10/1 Rakaan, 12/1 Combustible
12/1 Living The Life.

* This is a 0-85 handicap over 7f
* Difficult race partly down to REGAL DAN from a big stable
* He looks like being favourite with a 107 day absence
* I looked at similar 4 year olds with a break
* Those like him with around 14 career runs
* I found a 2-18 record. Not bad but both had less weight
* They had 8st 5lbs and 8st 12lbs and he has 9st 7lbs
* That is his statistical flaw but he must be respected
* REGAL DAN needs to win to get into the Lincoln
* I think he is best saved upon
* COMBUSTIBLE - Not keen as a filly with an absence
* LIVING THE LIFE - Don't feel she is fit enough
* PEARL NATION - Ran his profile from a 6f race
* No 5yo did that with fewer than 16 runs (0-20)
* PEARL NATION has 12 and isn't quite like a winner
* AL´S MEMORY - Outside punchers chance
* RAKAAN is complicated and hard to win with
* FAVOURITE TREAT - Shortlistable and a chance
* FORCEFUL APPEAL was found out last time in better grade
* He now drops two classes and 4lbs in the handicap
* On his penultimate run he could win this race

Shortlist

FORCEFUL APPEAL 100/30 Win Bet

REGAL DAN 3/1 Saver Bet



W a r w i c k 4.40

11/4 Union Jack D´ycy, 4/1 Bally Sands, 4/1 Trigger The Light
7/1 Alderluck, 8/1 Loughalder, 9/1 Fredo, 10/1 Musical Wedge
12/1 Counting House, 33/1 Estates Recovery.

* This is a 3m 5f Handicap Chase
* There are 38 of these races in February
* TRIGGER THE LIGHT is 13 absent 348 days
* 37 of the 38 winners ran within 10 days
* Strangely enough the one that did not was also 13
* That was a horse called Full Of Oats in 1999
* He had less weight than Trigger The Light
* He cant be a negative but I don't want a 13yo first time out
* ESTATES RECOVERY is underraced this season
* MUSICAL WEDGE wouldnt be my first choice
* His sires runners at 3m 4f and more are 0-35
* COUNTING HOUSE comes from a Novice Handicap Chase
* None of the 38 winners managed to do that
* ALDERLUCK is well handicapped but quirky
* He is best fresh on a sharp track
* Hard to know if 38 days off will be enough
* Could win but has a habit of letting you down
* LOUGHALDER is 8 and has 9-13 Chase starts
* Similar horses had a 4-20 record
* They all had a more recent run though
* They all ran better than he did last time
* LOUGHALDER is not quite right
* Just wonder if he isn't more of a Class 5 type

Shortlist

* UNION JACK D´YCY is impossible to read
* He has 23 Chase runs but 20 were in France
* Horses aged 6 like him had a 2-7 record
* They both won last time out and he didn't
* Hard to know if he will stay he has to be a neutral

* BALLY SANDS - His profile is fine
* His last two runs have been significantly better
* May be a Visor or his jumping improving
* With a Course and Distance win he is a big runner

* FREDO ran 5 days ago in a Jumpers Bumper
* Hard to read. He only just gets the trip
* His 1-18 chase record is much better of you tinker with it
* Take out his Cheltenham runs as he doesn't like it there
* Take out his long absences as well
* His record then looks fine but he is hard to read


Selection

FREDO 71

Each Way



L i n g f i e l d 5.00

6/4 Coillte Cailin, 9/4 Waveguide
3/1 Candy Kitten, 9/1 Litmus, 20/1 Meddling.

* This is a fillies handicap over 10f
* There are 18 similar races at this time of year
* Small sample size and just 5 runners
* 4 year olds have not done well with a 3-72 record
* MEDDLING - Not keen on a 4yo from a 7f race
* I looked at 4 year olds with under 14 career starts
* There was an unimpressive 1-45 record with these horses
* CANDY KITTEN fails this with 9 runs
* COILLTE CAILIN also fails this and comes from a maiden
* Horses from Maidens were 1-16
* That winner had 12 runs. COILLTE CAILIN has just 5
* Statistically I prefer the 5 year olds
* WAVEGUIDE and LITMUS both won last time out
* WAVEGUIDE has the more substantial form

Selection

WAVEGUIDE 9/4

Win Bet


****************************************************
****************************************************