0 Account Bet
4 Races Discussed
0 Selections
4 Profiles/Preview Selection
Hennessy Gold Cup Statistics



A very unusual message today mixing some
very unorthodox angles in the four previews.

Exeter has Heavy Ground. Towcester faces a
serious amount of rain. There is no racing on
the Sand so we have awful conditions and a
lack of choice today and it will be interesting
to see if I can squeeze anything out of today.

It's a message that will suit those that relish
a Puzzle and prefer to bet massive prices or
Lay at very short prices. It's certainly highly
unusual. It's a complete one off with strange
analysis and conclusions but it won't hurt to
try something different in conditions so bad.

I have included some statistics for Saturdays
Hennessy Gold Cup as well if your interested.





Profiles and Previews Bets


Towcester 12.45 - Barrs Lane 33/1 + (Betfair)
Towcester 12.45 - Stand ´n´ Boogie 33/1 + (Betfair)
Towcester 12.45 - Kararrhini 33/1 + (Betfair)

Navan 12.55 - Martello Tower 5/2 Win Bet

Navan 1.55 - Viconte Du Noyer 6/4 + Place Bet (Betfair)
Navan 1.55 - Minella Foru to beat Western Boy (Match Bet)

Exeter 3.35 - LAY bet on Pull The Chord 5/4
Exeter 3.35 - LAY bet on Dandy 11/4







S a t u r d a y ' s S u m m a r y

The main bet was a choice of three and I decided
to go with DE LA BECH and the saver because it
was obvious he had fewer horses to beat. That's
not always the right thing to do and disappointed
that after leading for most of the way he dropped
back and pulled up. Connections said afterwards
he had a breathing problem. The 2 selections did
much better with Skylight winning and Wotalad a
decent second each way. When a bet loses I can
never call it anything else than a bad day but the
strongest bets finished W P L and with marginal
calls and late decisions these things can happen.


P r o f i l e s @ P r e v i e w s




T o w c e s t e r 12.45

2/5 Ballyhollow, 3/1 Quiet Candid
16/1 Stand ´n´ Boogie, 16/1 Barrs Lane
20/1 Catkin Copse, 25/1 Katarrhini
66/1 Lead The Way 100/1 Pattara.

* This is a Mares Novice Hurdle over 2m
* This could be an accident waiting to happen
* Quiet Candid is a big statistical negative
* The favourite Ballyhollow is not quite safe enough
* The best profiles are Stand ´n´ Boogie and Barrs Lane
* They could turn out to be useless for all we know
* Nicky Henderson trains Quiet Candid
* I'd be wary about calling her a negative
* Especially in such an uncompetitive race
* This is the statistic that I should be following

* November Mares Novice Hurdles
* Any Distance during this Month
* Horses that ran in a Bumper this season
* Aged under 6 years old
* Horses with this profile were 0-129
* QUIET CANDID has this profile

* Statistically I should make both negatives

* BALLYHOLLOW looks the obvious selection
* It would be very easy to make her the bet
* I looked at horses from Maiden Hurdles like her
* None were aged 7 or more as she is
* BALLYHOLLOW is therefore not like a winner
* She will probably win this race to be fair
* How on earth can I take long odds on with that profile

Big Priced Alternatives
If you take seasonal debutants from Bumpers
Who had 2 or more Bumper starts
That started under 10/1 in that last Bumper race
You find 7 individual winners
That makes BARRS LANE worthy of consideration
It also makes STAND ´N´ BOOGIE interesting

I'm not bothered about betting them each way
at Bookmaker Prices. I'd rather throw a couple
of quid on both to win on Betfair at fancy odds.
I would add the unraced KATARRHINI as well

That gives us 3 chances at 33/1 and more

Selection

BARRS LANE 33/1 + on Betfair to Win
STAND ´N´ BOOGIE 33/1 + on Betfair to Win
KATARRHINI 33/1 + on Betfair to Win




N a v a n 12.55

5/2 Martello Tower, 11/4 Free Expression
9/2 Fort Smith, 11/2 Kauto Grand Mogol
6/1 Rock The World, 10/1 Sang Tiger
25/1 Shantou Flyer.

The Monksfield is a 2m 4f Grade 2 Novice Hurdle.
The market seems to prefer FREE EXPRESSION
over MARTELLO TOWER but I'm not convinced
that should be the case. FREE EXPRESSION did
look good winning a maiden hurdle last time out
but he has raced just once over hurdles and has
to step up from 2m to 2m 4f. MARTELLO TOWER
has 3 Hurdle runs and comes down in trip which
far more winners of this race have done and he
has Graded form as well. Statistically both seem
to be fine. MARTELLO TOWER is clearly a safer
choice but I can't see FREE EXPRESSION as a
negative. The 2004 winner (Sweet Kiln) has won
this from a 2m maiden hurdle but he did have a
lot more Bumper and Flat experience. He might
be pretty useful and we can only guess after all.
Mine would be to resist FREE EXPRESSION as
sexy and rely on MARTELLO TOWER as that is
a far more substantial option. Improvement can
bring KAUTO GRAND MOGOL into this and He
is respected but I preferred MARTELLO TOWER
with 2 extra hurdle runs and higher backclass.

Selection

MARTELLO TOWER 9/4

Win Bet




N a v a n 1.55

4/11 Vautour, 7/1 Clarcam, 9/1 Minella Foru
10/1 Viconte Du Noyer, 12/1 Western Boy
16/1 The Housekeeper, 20/1 Flaming Dawn
25/1 Dysios, 25/1 Third Opinion, 33/1 Capital Pursuit
33/1 Divine Rhapsody, 33/1 Leighinmohr
50/1 Festive Felon, 50/1 White Arm, 100/1 Ardmillan
100/1 Owens Pride.

Last year VAUTOUR won the Supreme Novices at
Cheltenham and this is his Chasing debut and he
will probably win easily baring a fall or an accident.
No interest in betting him or opposing him. There
will be opportunities to bet in other markets such
as the Place only and without the favourite ones.

* VICONTE DU NOYER could be the biggest danger
* Racing Post Chase rating of 130 isn't too shabby

* Minella Foru only earnt a 116 Chase RPR last time
* Flaming Dawn was hammered just 15 days ago
* Western Boy is interestingly sired by Antonius Pius
* Look at Antonius Pius's National Hunt runners on soft
* When racing on softer ground and 2m 1f + all 68 lost

* CLARCAM is 4 and has no Chasing experience
* Statistically that is not a problem
* CLARCAM is probably the most likely to get placed

* VICONTE DU NOYER could be the main threat here
* I will go with him at a bigger placed price

Selection

Viconte Du Noyer 6/4 + Place Bet (Betfair)

Minella Foru to beat Western Boy (Match Bet) 10/11




E x e t e r 3.35

Evs Pull The Chord, 6/4 Dandy, 14/1 An Tarbh Og
20/1 Ice Tres, 20/1 Sangram, 25/1 Ma´ire Rua
25/1 Mount Prospex, 25/1 Tom Neary
50/1 Dunnicks Skipper, 66/1 Happy Occasion
100/1 Huntsmans Lady.

* This is a 2m 1f Novice Hurdle

* PULL THE CHORD and DANDY dominate the betting
* The Racing Post fancy the favourites
* They say "Only two can be realistically considered"
* I am Not convinced about that

With PULL THE CHORD the first thing to mention is
that horses sired by St Jovite have awful records on
soft ground. It depends how you research that and
where you do it as results are different but overall it
is a very poor record and this is a fast ground sire.

With DANDY you can argue he may not like ground
this bad either by Nayef and having done nothing in
his Flat career when running on softer ground.

Then there is a curious statistical argument against
DANDY as he has only one hurdle run and crucially
does not have any Bumper experience.

* November Novice Hurdles
* Races over 2m 2m1f 2m 2f
* 1 Previous Hurdle runs
* No Bumper Form
* Running in the last 3 months
* Beaten last time out
* Horses aged 5 with this profile were 1-93
* They did win at other aged but the 5yo record is weak
* The 1 winner (Don't Panic) was a Flat Group horse

So I don't want to risk either of these 2 favourites

I could guess an each way alternative

MA´IRE RUA was one of several alternatives

In the end I decided to Lay both the favourites


Selection

LAY Pull The Chord 5/4
LAY Dandy 11/4




Newbury Saturday Statistics

Hennessy Gold Cup Chase (Handicap)
(Grade 3) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 3m2f110y

* Recent winners had the following National Hunt runs
* 14-10-20-12-16-23-10-12-11-6-6-18-18-16-12-7-14-5-17-16
* Horses with 6-18 National Hunt runs do best
* The last few winners had the following Chase races
* 11-4-14-3-12-23-5-4-4-6-4-11-6-5-6-7-11-5-13-7
* 11 of the last 18 winners had between 3-7 Chase starts
* The winners had the following runs in Handicaps
* 8-0-5-0-21-0-1-0-1-1-7-1-1-1-1-7-2-7-1-1-11-3-1-1-8
* Horses with 0-1 Handicap runs do very well
* Horses that were 1st-2nd last time score well
* 17 of the last 22 winners were 1st or 2nd last time
* Three of the five that were not finished 3rd
* Second-season chasers are the most interesting
* They won 10 of the last 15 renewals
* Horses aged 5 have never won this race
* It was established in 1957 and none have won
* Horses aged 5 are 0-5 since 1997 so few tried
* Horses aged 11 or more should be opposed
* The last ones to win were in 1957 and 1967
* Horses aged 10 should also be avoided
* The last winner aged 10 was back in 1981
* Diamond Edge was is the only 10yo winner in 43 years.
* Since 1988 horses aged 10 or more are 0-65 in this race
* Horses aged 9 are 3-77 since 1992
* Horses aged 9 won just 3 of the last 24 renewals
* They had 17 7 15 National Hunt runs
* They had 12 7 8 Chase runs
* Two ran that season having 7 and 8 Chase starts
* The other (Denman) was a rare 9yo seasonal debutant
* Seasonal debutants aged 9 or more are 1-44
* They won from official ratings of 174 139 145
* Horses aged 8 are 4-71 since 1992
* They had all had a race that season
* Horses aged 8 first time out are 0-20 since 1992
* The 4 winners aged 8 had 20 18 14 17 National Hunt runs
* The 4 winners aged 8 had 14 16 11 13 Chase runs
* They won from official ratings of 146 149 162 148
* Horses aged 7 have a 10-104 record since 1992
* The 10 winners had 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 2 4 runs this season
* The 10 winners had 10 12 23 10 11 18 16 12 5 29 National Hunt runs
* The 10 winners had 4 3 23 5 4 6 5 6 5 13 previous chase runs
* They won from the following official ratings
* 160 156 150 161 151 145 137 136 142 149
* The Perfect profile is a lightly raced 7yo debutant
* There were 5 seasonal debutant winners aged 7
* They all had Grade 1 form before
* They had 4 3 5 4 6 previous Chase starts
* They won this race in 2001 2005 2007 2010 2012
* Horses aged 6 have a 5-45 record since 1992
* Horses aged 6 and 7 are the ideal age for the race
* The 5 winners aged 6 had 1 0 1 2 1 runs this season
* Seasonal debutant 6 year olds were 1-15 in recent years
* That winner (State Of Play) had just 4 Chase starts
* Horses aged 6 are best with a recent run
* They are best with under 8 Chase runs and winning last time
* The 5 winners aged 6 had 14 12 6 6 16 National Hunt runs
* The 5 winners aged 6 had 11 4 6 4 7 previous chase runs
* The 5 winners aged 6 had official ratings of 147 145 142 140 135
* One winner age 6 came from a Novice Chase (1993)
* The following is an excellent profile
* Male horses aged 6
* Winning last time out
* Running within 18 days
* Having 8 or fewer Chase starts
* 3 horses had this profile
* They finished W W W winning in 1994 2003 2004
* 17 of the last 21 winners had form in Grade 1-2 before
* There were only 4 horses that did not
* 3 of these had Under 9 career starts
* These 3 had 4 5 7 Chase Starts
* Horses with No Grade 1-2 form should be lightly raced
* I looked at horses that had raced that season
* None of the winners came from a Non Handicap Graded race
* Horses that come from Non handicaps this year are 0-31
* No Seasonal debutant won without Grade 1 form
* Few Hennessey winners have Headgear
* No past winner came from a Hurdles race
* No past winner came from a Grade 2 Chase first time out
* I'd be wary of horses from the Paddy Power Gold Cup
* There is precious little recovery time from a hard race
* The double has been done by Celestial Gold (2004)
* The previous winner to do that was in 1980
* It has been done but it is not ideal as a trial race

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