No Account Bet


T o d a y s R a c i n g


I'm backing off today without any bets at
the top of the message. I want to get right
for tomorrow. Made big progress with the
Cesarewitch which is later in the message
and is to be concluded tomorrow. This will
free some time up for Saturdays message.

There are a few pointers about the racing
today but short summarised work and it's
a message that designed to have a short
breather and prepare itself for tomorrow.



C e s a r e w i t c h

The Race Statistics are on the message board
The Race analysis is in todays message
The final selection will be given tomorrow

I have applied My Angles and looked at some
issues with Class and Stamina and feel there
are 4 horses that offer the most at this stage.


Provisional Shortlist


DE RIGUEUR 20/1
RHOMBUS 20/1
COMMUNICATOR 20/1
SUEGIOO 16/1




T h u r s d a y s S u m m a r y

We ended up with 7 selections in the message
and returned a L W W L L W W record which is
excellent with 4 winners from 7 bets. The main
problem was the two at the top of the message
lost. SIR CHAUVELIN was beaten by a 80/1 rag
which was very frustrating. My other bet failed
as well. AYR had the last laugh. We hit back on
FREDRICKA but a lower strength bet and just
frustrating that we had 4 winners from 5 bets
in the bottom of the message. Overall despite
choosing wrong bets the analysis was sound.





S h o r t P r i c e N e g a t i v e s (Pilot)

None Today

I would have gone with Adeste Fideles
in the 6.10 at Dundalk had she been 2/1
or shorter but that is now unlikely.

Running Total
3 Correct
3 Wrong






P r o f i l e s @ P r e v i e w s



N e w t o n A b b o t 2.20

5/4 Turn Over Sivola, 11/8 Solar Impulse
5/1 Little Jon, 20/1 Surprise Us.

This is a 2m Novice Chase
Interesting race statistically
Should go to 1 of 3 horses all with an absence

SOLAR IMPULSE is a sexy 4 year old
TURN OVER SIVOLA is also sexy with Class form
My Angles throw up a sexless spanner in the works
They argue LITTLE JON could spoil the party

I ran TURN OVER SIVOLA's profile
Most like him were far lighter raced over fences
I did find 1 winner though like him in an average profile
Plenty of 4yo winners like SOLAR IMPULSE
Most did however come from a Graded race
Again 1 winner like him so he could easily win

* Horses aged 6
* Coming from a Graded Handicap Hurdle
* Absent more than 5 months
* 4-5-6 previous hurdle runs
* 6 horses had this profile and finished W W 6 W 9 W
* LITTLE JON should be the selection
* He does meet two red hot prospects
* It's not your average Novice Chase
* That said prices and profiles argue he is the bet

Selection

LITTLE JON 5/1



York 3.10

I think GM Hopkins is too short and who knows
what effect winning the Silver Cambridgeshire's
going to have just 14 days before. An interesting
issue the recovery time of Cambridgeshire horses.

* I looked at every similar race in October
* Look at how horses did coming from that race
* Horses from the Cambridgeshire were 1-39
* Thats a very weak record
* That said the one winner did win this last year
* Given profile and prices GM HOPKINS is not safe

I can make a big case for LEVITATE and HOMAGE
but I keep coming back to how short of runs they
are and I can't match either to winner because of
this. If I had to play it's small bets on these horses

NO POPPY 20/1
STARBOARD 20/1



Y o r k 5.10

Spent a bit more time on this than it may show. It
was confusing in places. Very low and very high
draws worry me. I just preferred MUJAZIF 12/1 for
the selection each way with most in his favour.



D u n d a l k 6.10

9/4 Adeste Fideles, 3/1 Mansuri
11/2 Celestial Fable, 6/1 Camakasi, 6/1 Elusive Laurence
8/1 Fantastic Dilly, 10/1 Aru Cha Cha, 12/1 Taaluf
14/1 Annie Irish, 20/1 Distinct Hand, 20/1 Omri
25/1 Taggeen, 66/1 Hughs Flyer.

This is a 7f maiden for horses rated 3 +
ADESTE FIDELES drops from 12f to 7f
She is a filly doing that just 10 days ago
I looked at 3 year olds trying to that
I was expecting no winners in a dreadful profile
It was a bad profile but not as bad as I expected
There were a couple of winners which surprised me
None had ran as recently as her
None came in similar races either
The general view must be to oppose her
MANSURI made most appeal

Selection

MANSURI 11/4

Win Bet


Dundalk 7.10

BERTIE LE BELGE 6/4 is my choice





S a t u r d a y s C e s a r e w i t c h

Quick Jack (6/1), Swnymor (8/1), Big Easy (10/1)
Nearly Caught (10/1), Ray Ward (10/1), Suegioo (12/1),
Brass Ring (14/1), Moidore (14/1), Mubaraza (14/1)
Rhombus (14/1), De Rigueur (20/1), Groovejet (20/1)
Noble Silk (20/1), See And Be Seen (20/1), Teak (20/1)
Communicator (25/1), Digeanta (25/1), Earth Amber (25/1)
Saddler's Rock (25/1), Sohar (25/1), Villa Royale (25/1)
Waterclock (25/1), Debdebdeb (33/1), Gabrial's King (33/1)
Gabrial's Star (33/1), Jonny Delta Knightly Escapade (33/1)
Lady Kashaan (33/1), Sir Frank Morgan (33/1), Spice Fair (33/1)
Sula Two (33/1), Ted Spread (33/1), Very Good Day (33/1)
Argent Knight (50/1), Laughing Jack (50/1), Mr Burbidge (50/1)

* I want a fit horse to win a race like this
* Past winners had the following runs this year
* 15 6 5 7 7 6 7 4 6 2 5 9 4 5
* I would insist on at least 4 runs this season
* More than 7 runs is fine but 4-5-6-7 runs are best
* The following horses are underraced this year
* NEARLY CAUGHT only has 3 runs this year
* All 4yo winners had more and none Group form like him
* His Sire has only 2 mile winners in Class 5 or lower
* None have won further and he is opposed
* EARTH AMBER is out as a mare with 1 run since April
* The big field worries me about her as well
* MUBARAZA is too short of runs this season
* There are 5yo winners not too dissimilar to him
* A poor last run damages his profile
* Horses from recent Handicaps over 17f + are 0-53 in this
* I don't want to rely on his trainer either
* All 53 horses that tried that lost
* VERY GOOD DAY has to go with 1 run this year
* BIG EASY is short of runs as an exposed 7yo
* All winners his age had considerably more runs
* Just 3 this year and 1 run in the last 154 days worries me
* BIG EASY also comes from a recent 18f handicap
* Horses from recent Handicaps over 17f + are 0-53 in this
* SULA TWO is short of runs this season
* MR BURBIDGE is unlikely to be fit enough
* SADDLER´S ROCK isn't really the right type
* Not keen on the combination of weight or absence
* The winner should have run well last time
* Ideally you should be 1-2-3-4-5-6-7 last time
* Look at horses beaten 10 + Lengths last time out
* They had a miserable 1-236 record since 1990
* That winner was beaten in a National Hunt race too
* No horse has won this beaten 10 + Lengths on the flat
* VILLA ROYALE - GABRIAL´S KING fail this
* SOHAR - DEBDEBDEB also fail this
* VILLA ROYALE is the wrong type of 5yo
* GABRIAL´S KING is also the wrong type of 5yo
* Coming from a 18f Class 2 handicap is a negative too
* DEBDEBDEB has to prove she can stay
* None of her sires long distance winners were in Class 4 +
* SOHAR is unsafe as mare drawn 36 with few recent runs
* SIR FRANK MORGAN has the wrong preparation
* No 4yo male has won as exposed as he is
* Male 4yo's are best with 10-15 runs and 4-5 runs that year
* RAY WARD does have that profile so is respected
* He does have flaws in other areas
* No winning 4 year old had previous Group class form
* RAY WARD has that so is not like the other 4yo winners
* He also comes from a recent Class 2 handicap over 17f +
* We know all 53 horses doing this were beaten
* ARGENT KNIGHT has the same problem
* He is not in the correct range of 4 year old winners
* SEE AND BE SEEN has the same problems as well
* GROOVEJET is the only 3 year old in the race
* The problem is she is a 3yo filly
* All 11 of those lost and none finished better than 6th
* She must be a doubtful stayer as well
* SWNYMOR is 5 and has 21 career runs
* He is more exposed than any 5yo winner
* Not by much but he isn't in the right range
* He is also absent longer than any 5yo winner
* His wins are all small fields in lower grades
* His Sire has yet to prove he gets stayers over this far
* One or two issues that just put me off him
* NOBLE SILK isn't the right kind of 5 year old
* LADY KASHAAN is wrong as an exposed 5yo mare
* MOIDORE has been busier than any 5yo winner
* He did run well in this race last year though
* I can see a case for him but he isn't like any winners
* Look at horses that ran on the Flat in the last 6 weeks
* Those that came from handicaps over 2m 1f or more
* All 53 horses that tried that lost
* MOIDORE has that to overcome as well
* He hasn't proved he is this class yet
* GABRIAL´S STAR is the wrong type of 5yo
* He lacks the class to win this
* WATERCLOCK is up too far in class
* KNIGHTLY ESCAPADE won't have the class
* Not off bottomweight and stepping up 2 grades
* SPICE FAIR also has Class issues
* He is 0-16 in Class 3 and higher
* He has a career high mark as well
* LAUGHING JACK looks out of his depth
* TED SPREAD is 7 and absent 140 days
* He is underraced for a horse his age
* JONNY DELTA is not close enough to the 7yo winners
* He also comes from the wrong type of race
* No horse aged 6 or more had under 19 runs
* DIGEANTA is wrong as a 7yo with 10 runs
* TEAK won last time over hurdles
* That's not an orthodox profile in this race
* Very few winners manage that and none won last time
* BRASS RING has plenty of positives
* Not far off the ideal 4 year old with 9 runs and 6 this year
* Two winners came from the Doncaster Cup like him
* Neither were 4 year olds though so he isn't perfect
* His Sires runners have yet to win beyond 2m as well
* QUICK JACK has a mixed profile
* He has raced just once since last January
* He has had only 2 previous runs in 2014 so far
* What few 5yo winners there are did have light seasons
* They were also unexposed as he is
* His runs this year should not been seen as negative
* He does fit the 5yo pattern uncomfortable as it may be
* There are doubts and he isn't a great price
* He is absent longer than the other 5yo winners
* His Sire (Footstepsinthesand) has only had 2m winners
* QUICK JACK is the first to try and win beyond 2m
* On his profile - He Should be shortlisted
* I am not doing that based on a) price b) Stamina concerns

Shortlist


* DE RIGUEUR has positives in his profile
* I don't have any major issues with him
* I just hope he hasn't lost his form late season
* He was improving in summer but 2 average races since

* RHOMBUS has a nice level of exposure
* He could have been a very good profile
* The only problem is he comes from a 12f race
* All 66 horses that ran over 12f or less last time lost
* RHOMBUS won over 12f last time
* He is up in the weights and in Class and distance

* COMMUNICATOR is the right type of 6 year old
* The right exposure, runs this year and absence
* His Sire Motivator has bred a Cesarewitch winner
* He's also bred a Cesarewitch Trial winner
* He was badly drawn last time yet still ran well
* He could win this off his current rating

* SUEGIOO is an unexposed 5 year old
* I see him as the right type of 5 year old
* He's a Chester Cup winner so can handle big fields
* His Sire was responsible for last years winner as well
* You can argue he looks badly handicapped off 102
* That said he has some big numbers
* 3 of his last 4 Racing Post Ratings are higher than 102
* His best 4 runs on those numbers were his last 4 races
* They used to say he was quirky but he's grown up

Selection

Will be Given Tomorrow

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