No Account Bet


T o d a y s R a c i n g

I have 4 previews today

Not sure I've chosen good races and it feels
an experimental message that could easily
finish without reward. Tougher day than I'd
expected. Low Stakes today. There was no
chance of an account bet. I can be no more
than hopeful today so small stakes are best.
It feels a high risk low expectation message.



Newmarket 2.00

SECATEUR 9/2 Each Way

My angles have glided me towards Secateur
but I don't know how far I can trust this work.
An experimental preview. The betting tells
you he has an obvious each way chance. If
he does win I still won't know how much is
down to my angles or not. This is a hopeful
preview without knowing how strong he is.


Newmarket 2.35

PERCY ALLELINE 12/1 Win Bet
PRINCE GAGARIN 3/1 Saver Bet

A non runner has killed any each way bet
but that may have done me a favour, I am
far from convinced Percy Alleline can win
this but he did have the best profile. What
I do like here is we have the top 2 weights
in a Nursery and we have the class horses.


Newmarket 3.10

CAPE CASTER 12/1 Each Way
OASIS FANTASY 4/1 Saver

I'm so surprised Cape Caster had the best
profile in such a tough race but he does.
I did like Oasis Fantasy just as much but
tend not to trust the stable. Interested to
see how my angles do but unconvinced.


Kempton 6.15

TUMUT 7/1 Half Stakes to win
PARIS CARVER 6/4 Half Stakes to win

I am overreaching here and hope that I
can rescue a dodgy conclusion with the
split stake bet. I was pushed onto a path
to go down and not sure that was wise.




S h o r t P r i c e N e g a t i v e s

None Today

Running Total 1-1 correct




I'm thinking and planning about introducing
a new daily column in the messages called
Unusual and Unpalatable Bets. These would
cover a number of bets that are not suitable
for the account and which include the short
priced each way singles and doubles with
a view to testing them for 6 months to find
out once and for all if they are worthwhile.

With the account bets low in numbers this
past couple of weeks I wasn't convinced it
was the right time to do this. I do not want
to bring any more confusion to messages.
I will see what feedback we get about this
and see if this is something members want.



T h u r s d a y s S u m m a r y

Ups and downs yesterday but we got a lot right
and held our own. Goodwood has always been
kinder to me than Redcar. The Goodwood races
previewed finished W W W in the message and
the Redcar previews went L L L and neither of
those records surprised me. It was a good start
to the new column Short Priced Negatives with
yesterdays negative finishing last of 4 horses to
finish the race much as my selection pulled up
and sadly died after the race. Overall we came
out of the message more than holding our own.



P r o f i l e s @ P r e v i e w s

I'm going to leave Perth alone today again as
there are lots of difficult to rate favourites and
badly framed races and that needs guesswork.
I don't see anything I like at Pontefract either.



N e w m a r k e t 2.00

2/1 Mohatem, 7/2 Secateur, 4/1 Game Pie
6/1 Chorus Of Lies, 9/1 Tawaasheeh
14/1 Tempus Temporis, 16/1 My Strategy, 20/1 Baroot
20/1 Kitten´s Red, 50/1 Captain Navarre
100/1 Indomitable Spirit.

This is a 2yo maiden over a Mile for Male horses.
Obviously limited to what we can know here and
in 2yo races over 8f I do like to have a look at all
the sires in a race and find out whether they have
bred 2yo winners over this far as it is quite a test.

This is a Grade 1 track and a big expansive track
and there are no bends to catch a breather so it
will require a mix of class and stamina and it is
probably going to be won by any of six horses.

* MOHATEM - His sires 2yo's over 8f + are 1-30
* When having under 2 previous races they are 0-16
* That doesn't inspire me about a short priced horse

* GAME PIE - His sires 2yo's over 8f + are 1-29
* When having under 2 previous races they are 0-11
* He comes from the same race as Mohatem

The above horses seem to have a few holes in this
unscientific way of determining stamina. The ones
below are from sires far more proven with the 2yo's
that they have bred and that raced over a mile +

* SECATEUR - His sires 2yo's over 8f + are 45-319

* CHORUS OF LIES - His sires 2yo's over 8f + are 22-140

* TAWAASHEEH - His sires 2yo's over 8f + are 10-76

I feel CHORUS OF LIES and TEMPUS TEMPORIS are
better overlooked as they are unraced and not strong
in the market. Neither is unraced TAWAASHEEH who
looks the owners 2nd string and has been rejected by
Paul Hanagan who chose to ride Mohatem. The first
three in the market all came from the same maiden.

GAME PIE made the running and finished 4th
MOHATEM was held up made ground to finish 5th
SECATEUR raced in last place to finish 8th

Given my breeding angles the natural bet would
appear to be SECATEUR each way. He was green
on his debut though and he will need to show he
has improved. I don't know how relevant my Sire
stats are above and what level of importance we
should give to them. I didn't come away from the
video of his last run that excited. My first reaction
was that SECATEUR has just an average chance.
It's only when the Sire Stats are factored in that
he appeals more. I feel we have been cheated
on the price but as there should be improvement
I will go with him.


Selection

SECATEUR 9/2

Each Way




N e w m a r k e t 2.35

7/2 Orlando Rogue, 4/1 Black Granite
4/1 Prince Gagarin, 5/1 Azmaam, 5/1 Landwade Lad
9/1 Al Rayyan, 16/1 Percy Alleline.

* This is a Class 2 Nursery over a mile.
* There are 36 similar races in September and October
* ORLANDO ROGUE is far from certain to stay this 8f
* His sire 2yo's over this trip and more are 0-31
* ORLANDO ROGUE has the longest absence in the race
* He has a longer absence than 35 of the 36 winners
* LANDWADE LAD - Horses from 8f maidens are 3-45
* Those like him beaten last time in that maiden are 0-18
* Those like him absent 3 or more weeks are 0-16
* LANDWADE LAD is not a good enough match

* PRINCE GAGARIN comes from a Listed/Group race
* Horses doing this were 1-13
* That was a filly with 6 runs
* She raced 8 days beforehand and lost by 1.85 lengths
* PRINCE GAGARIN is a completely different type
* BLACK GRANITE won a 7f handicap last time
* Powerful stable. Well handicapped and progressive
* The problem is he comes from winning a Class 5 race
* This is 3 grades higher than his last run
* Horses winning Nurseries over 7f or shorter are 3-23
* I found a winner with 4 runs from a Class 4 race
* The only winner from Class 5 had 6 previous runs
* BLACK GRANITE has just 4 and his profile isn't safe
* AL RAYYAN comes from an 8f Nursery
* I needed a better last run to match him to a winner
* AZMAAM comes from winning a 7f Maiden
* Horses doing this had a 5-52 record
* These 5 winners had 5 3 2 1 2 career starts
* None had 4 like AZMAAM
* There were winners with 3 and 5 career starts

Selection

PERCY ALLELINE 12/1 Win Bet

PRINCE GAGARIN 3/1 Saver Bet


PERCY ALLELINE

Pound for Pound he has the safest profile in the
race. Not sure he is thrown in at all and he will
do well to win a Class 2 nursery off 87 but aside
from Prince Gagarin he only has a 0-81 field to
beat and he has been running against several
horses rated higher. I just give him a chance at
a big price when you factor in others with flaws.
I am saving on PRINCE GAGARIN because this
allows us to have the two class horses on side.

Selection

PERCY ALLELINE 12/1 Win Bet

PRINCE GAGARIN 3/1 Saver Bet






N e w m a r k e t 3.10

7/2 Dance Of Heroes, 4/1 Almerzem, 9/2 Oasis Fantasy
8/1 Barwick, 9/1 Old Town Boy, 10/1 Cape Caster
10/1 Knife Point, 11/1 Der Meister, 12/1 Missed Call
20/1 Isabella Liberty, 20/1 Proud Chieftain
33/1 Toptempo.

* This is a 12f handicap for 0-93 rated horses
* First impressions are it is too hard a race to do
* There are 289 of these races in September-October
* I wanted to show DANCE OF HEROES profile

* Male horses aged 3
* Coming from a handicap over 10f or shorter
* Having under 6 career starts
* Horses with this profile had a 1-44 record
* Horses doing it with under 5 career starts are 0-28
* DANCE OF HEROES only has 4 career starts
* He fails that 0-28 statistic

These results suggest to me DANCE OF HEROES
should not be favourite and I'd agree as he has
many other 3 year olds who don't have to go up
in distance and have both more experience and
runs this year. DANCE OF HEROES is opposed

* KNIFE POINT is 3 and comes from a handicap
* He has 3 career starts doing this
* DER MEISTER has the same profile
* I looked at 3 year olds doing this with under 4 runs
* Those that won last time out were 2-4
* Those that were beaten last time out were 0-18
* KNIFE POINT was beaten last time so isn't like a winner
* DER MEISTER was beaten last time so isn't like a winner
* Fillies aged 4 absent more than a month were 0-34
* MISSED CALL fails this absent 62 days
* OLD TOWN BOY - 3yo with a long absence
* Average profile may just be too exposed
* BARWICK won an amateur race last time
* Just worries me he is an exposed 6yo doing this
* Especially without a recent run

Shortlist

* ALMERZEM as a chance if he stays 12f here
* His profile was completely neutral

* OASIS FANTASY is 3 and absent 54 days
* Several 3yo's won with similar profiles and 6-7-8 runs
* OASIS FANTASY has a good profile

* CAPE CASTER is 3 and won last time out
* He is up in class and up in the weights
* He lacks a run in the past fortnight as well
* I found 2 winners to my surprise just like him
* Horses called Brockwell and Dolphin Village did it
* For all my concerns he is easily the best profile

Selection

CAPE CASTER 12/1 Each Way

OASIS FANTASY 4/1 Saver





K e m p t o n 6.15

5/2 Paris Carver, 11/4 Tumut, 4/1 Charlie´s Star
9/2 Almoqatel, 10/1 Johnny Sorrento
14/1 Go White Lightning, 14/1 Kicking Leaves
25/1 Dark Symphony.

* This is a 2yo claimer over 6f
* There are 16 of these races in September
* Horses from 6f races have struggled
* They have a 1-52 record in these 16 races
* The only winner dropped from a Class 2 Sales race
* ALMOQATEL fails this
* CHARLIE´S STAR fails this
* JOHNNY SORRENTO fails this as well
* Colts like ALMOQATEL from 6f races were 0-19
* Horses with 2 runs like ALMOQATEL from 6f were 0-20
* JOHNNY SORRENTO and CHARLIE´S STAR come from 5f
* September and October have 35 of these 7f Claimers
* Horses from 5f races are 0-39
* CHARLIE´S STAR is therefore opposed
* JOHNNY SORRENTO is also opposed
* KICKING LEAVES comes from a 7f selling race
* In 35 of these races horses doing this are 2-46
* Both winners were female with at least 5 runs
* He is a Male horse with just 3 runs
* He was also beaten much further than they were
* KICKING LEAVES has regressive numbers and is out
* GO WHITE LIGHTNING comes from a 7f handicap
* I looked at fillies doing this running within 2 weeks
* There was a very decent 3-15 record with fillies doing this
* 2 were completely different running in much better races
* Only 1 managed it from a Class 5 race or lower
* That horse (Just Marion) had 9 career starts
* GO WHITE LIGHTNING is not a close enough match
* She's just downgraded stables and I don't see enough class
* GO WHITE LIGHTNING started 66/1 in a 0-60 last time
* That hardly inspires confidence
* PARIS CARVER is a filly from a 7f handicap
* I looked at fillies doing this running within 2 weeks
* There was a very decent 3-15 record with fillies doing this
* 2 were completely different running in much better races
* Only 1 managed it from a Class 5 race or lower
* That horse (Just Marion) had 9 career starts
* PARIS CARVER only has 4 career starts
* I can't match her to a winner
* Then again no horse is matchable to a winner
* She is at least in form and running respectable numbers
* TUMUT was beaten 7 lengths yesterday
* The statistical and visual impression was similar
* It suggested to me he didn't run well enough
* That said I'm sure he needed the run yesterday
* He failed a 0-94 stat before that at Chepstow
* That involves horses absent a month + with under 4 runs
* I see excuses for him last two runs
* That 1 day break could be enough in a bad race
* I just gets him on the staking in a split stake bet

Selection

Split Stake Bet

TUMUT 7/1 Half Stakes to win

PARIS CARVER 6/4 Half Stakes to win

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