Main Account - No Bet

Optional Account - 1 Bet

7 Previews


The Flat takes priority now but it was never likely
to be a significant day with Redcar and Windsor.
I have left most of Windsor alone. The card is not
easy and heavy rain is coming later and that will
soften the ground. Kelso doesn't inspire either so
I have stayed Mainly at Redcar today. Quiet Start
to the week. Just want to keep ticking over today.

It is obvious what we know and don't know today
and just a matter of piecing all the circumstantial
evidence together and trying to farm opportunities
without also taking too many unnecessary risks.




Optional Account

Redcar 4.20

CARIDADI 9/2

Each Way

There are more likely winners in the message but
I have decided to ignore some of the short priced
options and go with CARIDADI. He will be one of
the slowest horses in the stable but it's not asking
a lot for a Godolphin horse to win a 0-72 handicap
and with 3 places available he should do enough
to at least get placed and hopefully he can win it.




S u n d a y 's S u m m a r y

A low key day yesterday and I kept away from both
accounts. The only previews broke level. I had two
each ways and managed to beat both the favourites
but in both races we only managed second place so
we came out of both races with our money back.


P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S


R e d c a r 2.20

13/8 Paddy Again, 11/2 Tagtale, 7/1 Compton River
7/1 Sarista, 10/1 Reet Petite, 12/1 Diatomic, 14/1 Drag Line
16/1 Binky Blue, 25/1 Esk Valley Lady, 33/1 Lazy Days In Loule
33/1 Penalty Scorer.

Little doubt PADDY AGAIN sets the standard and is the
most likely winner. I think he's too short. Had he been
about 6/4 I would have selected him, suggesting there
was a good case for an each way double. Now at 4/5
he is too short. Most likely winner. Just not any value.





R e d c a r 2.50

13/8 Dodina, 3/1 Soul Instinct, 7/1 Confidential Creek
8/1 Balinka, 8/1 Bond Club, 12/1 Britain, 20/1 Jiminy
25/1 Booloo, 25/1 Captain T.

This is the first 5f selling race to be run in April on turf
so statistically we can do nothing. More mysteries with
Bond Club having never run at 5f before. DODINA has
the best chance at these weights but a filly aged 4 with
an absence in a seller is not safe. I can't be confident
about whether to oppose the 3 year olds or not as this
is a brand new untested race. I think I would split stake
the race. You could buy DODINA out of the race with a
half staked bet and perhaps SOUL INSTINCT to place is
worth the second half of the 2 bets at evens and 4/5.

Selection - Split Stake Bet

DODINA - Half Stakes to win at Evens

SOUL INSTINCT - Half Stakes to place at 4/5



R e d c a r 3.20

13/8 Rough Courte, 5/1 Too Elusive, 6/1 Stanarley Pic
7/1 Far Ranging, 7/1 Notaprayer, 10/1 White Rose Runner
12/1 Lady Liz, 16/1 Cornborough, 66/1 Highway Pursuit.

* This is a 7f maiden for 3 year olds
* I am now sure I should listen to my angles here
* They tell me to oppose ROUGH COURTE
* She had as many as 14 runs last season as a 2 year old
* I looked at every maiden in April at any distance
* Horses first time out with 10 + previous runs are just 1-39
* My angles say ROUGH COURTE is too exposed and oppose her
* I don't feel confident enough to do that
* She has some very healthy Racing Post Ratings and has ability
* My angles suggest I should consider an alternative
* STANARLEY PIC each way would be one of those

Options

* One option is to split stake the race
* Perhaps make sure I couldn't lose if ROUGH COURTE won
* Perhaps half stakes on him and half on something else

* Another option is ROUGH COURTE in an each way double

* Another option is STANARLEY PIC Each Way
* There is a trainer angle that would support this
* Horses aged 3 trained by Alan Swinbank
* Running in Maiden races in April
* Starting under 16/1
* Coming from a 2yo maiden
* Beaten under 10 lengths last time out
* Alan Swinbank raced 7 horses with this profile
* They finished W W 8 W 3 W W

Selection

A race of numerous options. I am still reluctant to go with
STANARLEY PIC each way in case he isn't fit and to oppose
ROUGH COURTE will some strong numbers. I settled on the
split stake bet here. Complicated but not without advantages.

STANARLEY PIC 4/1 Win Bet

ROUGH COURTE 6/4 Saver Bet

Having 40% of our stake on ROUGH COURTE will break level
if he wins. The 60% stake on STANARLEY PIC will mean that
we are getting 2/1 about STANARLEY PIC but also getting all
our stakes back if ROUGH COURTE does go on and win this.




R e d c a r 3.50

5/1 Cloverdale, 5/1 Knight Owl, 7/1 Capaill Liath
8/1 Nurpur, 10/1 Justonefortheroad, 12/1 Kiwi Bay
12/1 No Poppy, 14/1 Fort Belvedere, 14/1 Lazarus Bell
14/1 Spavento, 16/1 Fazza, 16/1 Save The Bees
20/1 Al Muheer, 20/1 Destiny Blue, 20/1 Staffhoss, 33/1 Snow Bay.

* This looks too difficult. Just some points of interest
* CLOVERDALE only has 1 career start
* I ran that profile in all similar races in April
* 4 year olds running within a month with under 4 runs are 0-14
* 4 year olds from maidens like him were 3-47
* None won with 1 run but only one tried (2nd)
* None won with a run within the past 3 months
* CLOVERDALE is unsafe but not enough tried to be sure
* I didn't like his draw much in Stall 13
* 22 races here since 2011 with 10 + runners
* Horses drawn 13 or higher are 1-60 in these races
* That suggests high numbers have problems
* Just for the record the only high drawn winner was last time
* The last race here was won by Stall 17 of 17
* They all came down the middle of the track that day
* NO POPPY is a 6yo mare first time out
* Her record suggests she may need the run today
* FORT BELVEDERE looks unsafe down from 12f
* I looked at horses doing that in the previous 3 months
* There was a 1-45 record with these horses
* That winner had 3 runs that season not 1 like Fort Belvedere
* SPAVENTO - I don't want a first time out 8yo from Stall 16
* KIWI BAY - I don't want a seasonal debutant aged 9
* Not one that has never won before June before
* JUSTONEFORTHEROAD didn't show enough for me last time

Possibles

* NURPUR is a 4yo filly first time out
* There are 4yo fillies winning doing this
* They all had less weight than her
* They all had fewer runs as well

* KNIGHT OWL is hard to rule out
* His trainer is no certainty to have him 100% fit
* That said his trainers debutants in April do quite well
* Winning his last race last year puts him on a career high mark

* CAPAILL LIATH has a bad draw in Stall 14
* He is much fitter than many of these though
* I wouldn't be using the draw with confidence to rule him out
* Maybe CAPAILL LIATH each way is the safest option

Selection

CAPAILL LIATH 4/1

Each Way




W i n d s o r 4.10

13/8 Cannock Chase, 9/2 Damascene, 11/2 Elusive Guest
13/2 Late Night Mark, 7/1 Loving Home, 17/2 Mr Greenspan
14/1 Fastnet Red, 14/1 Princess Ombu, 16/1 Good Value
16/1 Nam Hai, 16/1 Rydan, 25/1 Solo Hunter, 33/1 Oracle Boy.

This is a maiden over 10f and I think the likely winner
is probably CANNOCK CHASE from Michael Stoute. No
illuminating reasons but this sire statistic interested me
about one of his main market rivals ELUSIVE GUEST.

* Horses sired by Elusive Guest
* Running over 9f or more
* There were 26 winners on Sand and Turf
* Those that raced on Turf were only 5-133
* 4 of the 5 won on faster ground
* Those running on soft or heavy were 0-20
* Those running on Good to soft or worse are 1-43
* If the rain gets in his stamina could be under question

I wouldn't risk him with all the heavy rain that's forecast.

I wouldnt want to oppose CANNOCK CHASE. Given some
darker horses like DAMASCENE it may be best to bet him
in an each way double. I shan't bother with that strategy.

Selection

CANNOCK CHASE 5/4

Win Bet





R e d c a r 4.20

11/2 Alquimia, 6/1 Caridadi, 8/1 Arrowzone, 10/1 Tancred
10/1 Toboggan Star, 12/1 Ralphy Lad, 14/1 Gratzie, 14/1 Lesha
20/1 Green Zone, 20/1 Shirocco Passion, 20/1 Sketch Map
25/1 Clever Miss, 25/1 Eddiemaurice, 25/1 Taanif, 40/1 Petergate.

* Too many runners for comfort in this 3yo handicap
* I would make the following observations
* 22 races here since 2011 with 10 + runners
* Horses drawn 13 or higher are 1-60 in these races
* That suggests high numbers have problems
* TOBOGGAN STAR has Stall 17 which worries me
* TANCRED - Profile is acceptable first time out
* He did downgrade stables last year though

* ALQUIMIA is a filly from 6f with just 3 runs
* Normally that would be unacceptable
* However 6 days ago a horse called Burnt Fingers did it
* She wouldn't be my choice but neither would I say negative

* CARIDADI - No world-beater but must be considered
* Not hard to see a Godolphin horse win a 0-72 off 75
* This is after all only a Class 5 race
* Something could beat her but not sure 3 will be able to

Selection

CARIDADI 9/2

Each Way





R e d c a r 4.50

10/11 Yagheer, 15/8 Elusive George, 8/1 Unfinishedbusiness
14/1 False Witness, 16/1 Emily Davison, 33/1 Tears And Rain
66/1 Daring Pursuit, 66/1 Naggers, 66/1 Spring Willow.

Watch the market here in this maiden. I would prefer
YAGHEER statistically as ELUSIVE GEORGE has had 2
chances to win maidens this year and failed but there
is a case for ELUSIVE GEORGE each way around 9/4
if nothing else is fancied. Without knowing what will
happen in the market later I can only guess. I thought
ELUSIVE GEORGE each way around 9/4. My statistics
say don't be surprised if YAGHEER wins. I feel he may
do but if the market offered a free-looking each way
bet on ELUSIVE GEORGE it would be another option.

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