No Account Bet

I've covered seven races today and most of these
are strangely tonight at Roscommon which was a
surprise but there's a strange mixture of meetings
today. Wolverhampton's surface is so new. Thirsk
has some insultingly large fields. Kempton's sand
is competitive and Windsor more an information
card tonight. A day to pick your battles and ignore
most of the temptations offered. It just turned out
that most of the interesting business is in Ireland.


T o d a y s M e s s a g e


Not going with a bet today given my main bets
are at a night meeting in a foreign country but
I believe more in my arguments for these three.


Roscommon 5.10 - BELLE ET BETE Evens Win Bet


Roscommon 7.10 - CIANKYLE 3/1 Each Way


Roscommon 7.40 - MONEY SPIDER 6/1 Each Way
Roscommon 7.40 - MAY DULLEA 7/1 Saver


To be fair BELLE ET BETE is too short now and
CIANKYLE relies on assumptions. I do like this
7.40pm. It is much harder than the other races
but I have mentioned MONEY SPIDER a couple
of times in recent races as a horse that is now
improving after a stable upgrade and a switch
to fast ground. There is some strength in depth
here. I want MAY DULLEA as a saver and can
still see two other dangers that I haven't saved
on. Thats why it's the hardest race today but I
am nominating MONEY SPIDER as the best bet.

Small interest bets on all three for me with no
strong bet on the day with the time running out.




S a t u r d a y s S u m m a r y

It was a case of seconditus on Saturday as the main
bet and two other options I highlighted finished 2nd.
The danger with HANNO is that although we found
the right negative there was always the danger that
the favourite could be smart and she was. AMANTO
was the main bet and was looking very solid and he
looked the winner but was caught very late and this
was disappointing. I'd blame two factors. He probably
tired on the soft ground especially when not having
a recent race and the winner got a brilliant ride and
having looked beaten a mile out it stung a bit to see
her get up to win. MASTER OF THE HALL was going
brilliantly and looked like winning easily. Frustrated
as I had two very good negatives both easily beaten
and we were long odds in running to overtake what
was an out of form front runner. That didn't happen
though as the outsider quickened against off a slow
pace. That's the trouble with these longer distance
handicap hurdles with the lack of pace and tactics
playing a big factor and one good or bad jump can
change the whole race. So disappointed we ended
up with Three second places with one losing bet.



P r o f i l e s @ P r e v i e w s


T h i r s k 2.15

2/1 Koptoon, 3/1 Looking Good, 6/1 Third Time Lucky,
6/1 Caius College Girl, 14/1 Never Easy, 14/1 Racing Knight
16/1 Heading Home, 25/1 Lady Cordie, 33/1 Ty Ty
40/1 Cape Hideaway, 40/1 Phantasmo.

I think the safest bet in this 2yo maiden is to choose
any of the main 4 runners at the head of the betting
and take a guess on one. What interested me most
was that THIRD TIME LUCKY was drawn 1 as I found
that whilst some horses do win from this draw none
have done it as 2 year olds. Go back to 2004 and we
find 2 year olds racing at Thirsk drawn 1 are 0-40 in
fields of 8 or more and just 1-67 going back to 1997.
I wasn't keen to risk CAIUS COLLEGE GIRL as she's
not bred for soft ground. Forced to choose I would
rather side with LOOKING GOOD and KOPTOON as
the shortlist. There is an argument to side with the
burglary bet on LOOKING GOOD each way at 11/4.
KOPTON has the better numbers and a more recent
run though. I don't see why he can't bet both these.

Selection to a £10 Stakes

£7 LOOKING GOOD 11/4

£3 KOPTON 2/1-9/4



K e m p t o n 3.30

9/2 Winter Queen, 11/2 Activation, 11/2 Seebeedee
6/1 Robben, 6/1 Wink Oliver, 8/1 Pink Ribbon
9/1 Goolagong Girl, 11/1 Smugglers Lane
14/1 Ho Yam Lay, 20/1 Celestine Abbey, Hidden Agenda
25/1 Madame Ascension, 50/1 Now Say Boooom
50/1 Tommys Geal.

* This is a Nursery over a mile for 0-60 rated horses
* There are very few similar races in such a low class
* Statistically anything I do will be based on small samples
* I would have to oppose the following though
* WINK OLIVER leaves me cold from a 6f Selling race
* I hate his sire Winker Watson
* This horse has had 3 different trainers in his last 3 runs
* WINK OLIVER also has Stall 14 of 14 not much help
* WINTER QUEEN also looks much too risky
* I hate Stall 1 here and think it's the worst draw
* Big stable but well beaten on all 3 of his runs
* A Godolphin horse who was 66/1 in a sand maiden last time
* Hardly inspiring and his price is based on his stable
* WINK OLIVER and WINTER QUEEN are both drawn badly
* I don't see a good enough case for either.
* I just had a look at some sire stats as this is over a mile
* I looked at how they got on with 2yo's over a Mile or more
* Horses aged 2 by Avonbridge are 1-70 over a mile
* GOOLAGONG GIRL may not appreciate a mile
* HIDDEN AGENDA has the same problem same sire
* Horses aged 2 by Bushranger are 0-27 over a mile
* SMUGGLERS LANE may not appreciate a mile
* NOW SAY BOOOOM's sire scores very badly with 2yo at 8f +
* MADAME ASCENSION doesn't interest me from a seller
* Not when her sire's never bred a 2yo winner over 8f +
* There are very few I could give any time to here
* PINK RIBBON - Avoidable stable doesn't offer enough

Selection

* ACTIVATION - Best jockey and should be considered
* I just can't find a winner from an Auction Maiden though
* ACTIVATION is the best backed from my shortlist
* She does have to prove she will stay this far

* ROBBEN - I like his profile and numbers

* SEEBEEDEE - Won't be far away on her last runs

Three modest horses but the rest look awful and I am
struggling to see many to threaten this shortlist. I have
had a look at their last runs on tape and stamina issues
and I came away thinking I shouldn't risk one each way
and instead bet one and save on the other two horses.
I would play it this way to a £10 stake for guidance.


£6 Win SEEBEEDEE 6/1

£2 Win ROBBEN 6/1

£2 Win ACTIVATION 4/1





T h i r s k 4.15

4/1 We´ll Shake Hands, 9/2 Piccadilly Jim
7/1 Bajan Rebel, 7/1 Comino, Heroique,
8/1 Zain Zone, 14/1 Playtothewhistle
20/1 Chamberlain 20/1 Sleeping Star.

This is a 3yo handicap over 7f. One of those races
where there can't be a confident choice because
so many are hard to assess. WE´LL SHAKE HANDS
for example comes from a French Claiming race
and if you can't judge the second favourite well it
is not a race for heavy stakes. My main opinion in
this race is to oppose favourite PICCADILLY JIM.

I looked at what it took to win a 3yo handicap on
this track. The 3 past winners of this race had run
18 15 14 before and had 7 9 6 runs that season so
that is a long way from a horse that's raced just 3
times before in maidens and not run for 2 months.
I would prefer a more substantial profile and side
with a well raced horse. PICCADILLY JIM brings
too much risk on a track that often rewards those
horses with experience and multiple recent runs.
I thought PLAYTOTHEWHISTLE might lack fitness
and BAJAN REBEL is far too risky down 3f in trip.
It could be a mistake but ZAIN ZONE looks unsafe
on his recent form since downgrading stables so
is also opposed. SPIRIT OF ALSACE didn't appeal
much either. I could only shortlist these 3 horses

* WE´LL SHAKE HANDS - HEROIQUE - COMINO

HEROIQUE 7/1 Win Bet
WE´LL SHAKE HANDS 4/1 Saver Bet





R o s c o m m o n 5.10

5/4 Belle Et Bete, 5/1 Duca Valentinois
6/1 Rapid Eye, 7/1 Spiritual Man, 8/1 Enter The Priory
8/1 Great Dancer, 14/1 Cleano, 14/1 Duke Of Medina
16/1 Alcock And Brown.

This is an unusual Auction race for horses that had
not won more than one race before and that didn't
cost more than 60,000 euros. No past renewals and
no similar races elsewhere. BELLE ET BETE is the
only horse that has won a race before. She has got
plenty of experience as well. These are 2 positives
to make up for the fact she has a 5lbs penalty. Her
sex allowance helps somewhat but she has a mix
of positive and negative points. The main issue for
me is that BELLE ET BETE has just recorded a very
decent Racing Post Rating of 88 and it means she's
now got figures of 70 73 88. The highest rating from
her rivals so far is 69 someway lower. If she is able
to repeat her last figure I think that should be more
than enough especially if you remember this race
is limited to horses that don't cost a lot. It's for that
reason I think she's the bet.

Selection

BELLE ET BETE Evens

Win Bet




R o s c o m m o n 5.40

4/1 Shipyard, 5/1 Have A Nice Day, 7/1 Red All Star
8/1 Lean And Keen, 10/1 Glassatura
10/1 He´s Got Rhythm, 10/1 Surreal, 10/1 Talitha Kum
12/1 Kanes Pass, 16/1 Elusive Ridge, 16/1 Six Of Hearts
16/1 Three Bells, 25/1 Billyford.

This is a 7f handicap for 0-89 rated horses. I have one
angle I want to use to compensate from not knowing
any of these Irish horses and once I use that I want a
shortlist that I am probably going to have to fluke.

* Roscommon have 29 races over 7f since 2012
* Horses drawn 11 or higher are just 1-64 in these races
* Understandable with 2 very sharp right hand bends
* I would take out the following with bad draws
* TALITHA KUM - THREE BELLS - KANES PASS

I would also reject BILLYFORD as a 9yo with an absence
of 105 days. Neither ELUSIVE RIDGE or SIX OF HEARTS
ran well enough recently. I don't want GLASSATURA as
a 3yo filly absent 57 days. RED ALL STAR is not safe and
no winners like him won a similar race from a 6f maiden.
Whilst very high draws have struggled so has Stall One
here. They have a 0-39 record in the past 39 handicaps
here and HAVE A NICE DAY is strategically left out too.
This leaves a shortlist which I hope may get the winner.

* HE´S GOT RHYTHM - LEAN AND KEEN- SURREAL - SHIPYARD

No strong way to split these but I decided to side with the
two that had the recent runs in the hope they are fitter.

Selection

SHIPYARD 6/1 Each Way

LEAN AND KEEN 7/1 Saver





R o s c o m m o n 7.10

5/2 Tarabiyn, 3/1 Cabarete, 3/1 Lady Clitico
12/1 Allen Warrior 12/1 Love The Feeling
33/1 Impressive Duke 50/1 Dresden Green
100/1 Boston Icon, 100/1 Ciankyle.

* This is a 3yo maiden hurdle
* There are just 13 similar races in August
* Hurdling experience is an advantage
* Unraced hurdlers have a 8-135 record
* Once raced hurdlers have a 5-25 record
* TARABIYN has not raced over hurdles before
* He has a 399 day absence which worry me
* The longest absence was 57 days
* He is also owned by a Syndicate which I don't like
* It worries me he has just 2 career runs in any code
* I looked at the 13 winners for past runs
* Those with under 4 runs were just 1-48
* The circumstantial evidence puts me off TARABIYN
* BOSTON ICON - IMPRESSIVE DUKE - CIANKYLE also fail that
* I'm taking out those without hurdling experience
* LOVE THE FEELING - ALLEN WARRIOR fail that
* This leaves a shortlist of 2 horses
* CABARETE -- LADY CLITICO

If you look at horses with experience over hurdles
that started under 10/1 in that hurdle race you find
a 4-8 record and LADY CLITICO does offer this and
she is tempting. CIANKYLE though is a better price
and a male horse and has much more stamina and
at a bigger price I think he's the each way bet.

Selection

CIANKYLE 3/1 +

Each Way




R o s c o m m o n 7.40

3/1 Hell Cat Maggie, 5/1 Dashing Lady
11/2 Ourbeautifuldream, 7/1 Money Spider, 8/1 May Dullea
10/1 Whatsdacraic, 14/1 Katie Lu
16/1 Our Girl Naoise, 16/1 Razia, 20/1 Hurricane Jojo
20/1 Rodger Roo, 25/1 Ellaway Rose.

* This is a Mares Handicap Hurdle
* Two statistics interests me in these races
* Look at every Mares Handicap in August and September
* Thats any distance and any class
* Look at horses from Novice or Maiden Hurdles
* These horses have a disappointing 3-83 record
* When running within 2 weeks they are 3-26
* When facing an absence of more than 2 weeks they are 0-57
* The only horses from Non Handicaps had very recent runs
* HELL CAT MAGGIE fails this with a 66 day absence
* KATIE LU fails the same angles
* Horses that come from Novice or Maiden Hurdles are 3-83
* Those that were beaten last time were just 1-69
* The following horses also fail this statistic
* OUR GIRL NAOISE- ELLAWAY ROSE - KATIE LU
* If a horse from a non handicap wins
* It should really be OURBEAUTIFULDREAM
* She won last time in the last 2 weeks which is perfect
* The problem is none have won when as old as her
* Technically I shouldn't make her the selection

Shortlist

* DASHING LADY has a chance and must be shortlisted
* I nearly made her a second saver

* I'm interested in MAY DULLEA and MONEY SPIDER
* MAY DULLEA was favourite in a better race last time
* Decent 4th given a lot to do she should like this distance
* Her numbers suggest she's well treated as well
* MONEY SPIDER will, love this ground tonight
* She has improved after a stable upgrade
* She should be able to translate that improvement to hurdles
* Most of her hurdle runs have been on ground she hates
* She is fit and her numbers away from soft show she's well in

Selection


MONEY SPIDER 6/1 Each Way

MAY DULLEA 7/1 Saver


****************************************************
****************************************************