No Account Bet



M e s s a g e C o n t e n t



Only 7 Previews today. I have decided not to
cover Kempton tonight. I didn't have enough
time to cover a low grade evening card. We
mainly stay with Southwell today with just 2
races at Wincanton. It's heavy ground there
and probably best to keep it at arms length.

Tomorrow looks more like a day that could
provide an account bet. I have been ticking
over slowly recently with the rain and small
fields. I can get over protective with number
of bets at times but it will change and there
are always quiet times. Hopefully we're just
coming to the end of one of those spells.

I might just well have backed the winner of
the 2014 Grand National. I'll do something
about the bet I have just placed tomorrow.

I may well include at least 3 Ante Post bets
in Friday's message. These will be purely
observational non account bets but I have
backed two of them and want to get these
out and could stake these at a later date.



M e s s a g e H i g h l i g h t s



Southwell 2.00

Triple Aitch 9/2 Win Bet
Layla's Hero 2/1 Saver Bet

Not sure all is as it seems here. Running a
few profiles I find TRIPLE AITCH has got a
surprisingly strong profile. I wasn't looking
at an account bet as he has no form here.
The decision was made easier by this now
becoming only a 7 runner race. I've gone
with LAYLA'S HERO as a saver. He's been
week in the market and I don't understand
why he should be so. That undermines my
confidence a bit but I want to save on him
anyway. Main interest is TRIPLE AITCH as
you'd have thought he had a really weak
profile but it comes out remarkably well.
I do not see how it can be a stronger bet.


Southwell 3.00

MASTERFUL ACT 9/4

Win Bet

With another runner this could well have
been a lovely each way bet but there are
only 7 runners and we have to take on an
odds on favourite who has just hacked up
six days ago. I want that each way safety
so without it he is just a win bet to lower
stakes. I think his profile is far less riskier
than the favourites and at a bigger price.




Wednesday's R e v i e w

Only one preview yesterday which ended up
failing. There was only one meeting starting
very late in the day down to the weather and
a clear lack of choice. I went with a race that
did not look as hideous as some on the card
but managed only a third and 4th behind the
surprise winner. Little choice with a sad card.

P R O F I L E S & P R E V I E W S



S o u t h w e l l 1.30

11/4 Ysper, 7/2 Iffranesia, 9/2 Imjin River
8/1 Guishan, 8/1 Sir Geoffrey, 10/1 Cadeaux Pearl
12/1 Dancing Freddy, 16/1 Catflap, 16/1 Flirtinaskirt
25/1 Fairy Wing.

* This is a 0-65 handicap over 5f
* No horse aged 6 or more won absent 100+days
* DANCING FREDDY is out aged 7 absent 362 days
* FAIRY WING is wrong well beaten over 7f
* FLIRTINASKIRT - CATFLAP don't look right
* YSPER is a difficult one to read
* She is a 4yo filly coming from a maiden
* 4yos from maidens are 2-46
* 4yo fillies doing this were 1-23
* The only winner dropped in distance
* YSPER didn't do that so is technically one to avoid
* She is ex French though with experience
* Untypical of the standard maiden winners
* I'd give her a better chance than those angles suggest
* Not a negative but my angles say look elsewhere
* IFFRANESIA is a 4yo filly absent 34 days
* Fillies aged 4 absent 3 or more weeks are 2-86
* Those with 6 or more career starts were 1-74
* That winner had 11 runs and IFFRANESIA has 10
* She is just like 1 winner but not a perfect match
* That winner (Deveze ) also had 8lbs less weight than her
* IFFRANESIA - Her profile is not that persuasive
* GUISHAN is a 4yo filly down in distance
* Some won but all were lighter raced or exposed
* Fillies aged 4 doing this with between 6-18 runs are 0-28
* GUISHAN with 10 runs fits nicely into that winless record
* SIR GEOFFREY is 8 and has a recent run
* He was beaten 6 + lengths last time
* I looked at 8 year olds beaten 5 + lengths
* Those that ran within a month were 0-28
* I can find a winner beaten 4 lengths last time
* SIR GEOFFREY was beaten further than that
* Statistically the issue is whether he did enough last time
* A strict interpretation suggests he didn't

Shortlist

* CADEAUX PEARL is 6 and drops in trip
* He was beaten 8 + lengths 18 days ago
* I can find 2 winners beaten 7 lengths that won
* I'd forgive him an 8 length defeat
* Last time out he had the worst draw at Wolverhampton
* That was over 6f and he is 0-9 at that distance
* His previous race was also over 6f
* Back over 5f here he must be respected
* I don't think Stall 10 will be any help though

* IMJIN RIVER won a 5f handicap last time
* I looked at horses aged 7 with that profile
* There was a 3-23 record with similar types
* They had absences of 3 7 and 15 days
* IMJIN RIVER with 10 days off is a Positive

Selection

IMJIN RIVER 5/1 Each Way

CADEAUX PEARL 8/1 Optional Saver





S o u t h w e l l 2.00

11/8 Layla´s Hero, 5/1 Upper Lambourn
6/1 Orwellian, 6/1 Star Up In The Sky, 6/1 Triple Aitch
16/1 Gebayl, 20/1 Girl At The Sands, 33/1 Molly Jones.

* This is a 6f handicap for 0-65 rated horses
* There are 163 similar races at this time of year
* I've been using a strange statistic recently in 6f races
* It involves 4yo fillies in low grade 6f handicaps
* If you take 4yo fillies with 6 or more career starts
* You find a disappointing 3-159 record
* Those without a run in 7 days are 0-124
* I'm expecting something to break this 0-124 stat soon
* It has been very resilient and many lost recently
* There are 3 horses failing that 0-124 record
* STAR UP IN THE SKY fails this
* I don't like her with just 1 run since last September
* GEBAYL also fails this 0-124 statistic
* GIRL AT THE SANDS also fails the 0-124 statistic
* I don't see any reason to trust those horses
* MOLLY JONES doesn't offer enough

Possibles

* UPPER LAMBOURN - Not keen he comes from 5f
* There are winners like him doing this
* He is beatable though and doesn't stand out
* Profile ok but there are better out there
* ORWELLIAN - profile fine but I prefer others
* He has 9 Southwell runs in his career
* He's never beaten a Racing Post Ratings of 53 here
* That wont be good enough. Not for me

Shortlist

* LAYLA´S HERO has to be a positive
* I looked at horses aged 7+ winning last time
* A few won with recent races and he has backclass

* TRIPLE AITCH has a strangely wonderful profile
* I looked at 4 year olds absent 50-70 days ago
* Those that had 11-12-13 career starts
* There was a 3-12 record with these horses
* However all 3 winners dropped from 7f to 6f
* TRIPLE AITCH does that today
* I looked at horses with this profile from 7f races
* There was a 3-4 record surprisingly good
* TRIPLE AITCH has to be a positive
* He has no Southwell form though
* We don't know how he will act on the surface

Selection

TRIPLE AITCH 9/2 Win Bet

LAYLA'S HERO 2/1 Saver Bet





Wincanton 2.10

4/1 Silsol, 9/2 Ainsi Fideles, 5/1 Shantou Magic
8/1 Veauce De Sivola, 9/1 Bygones Sovereign
9/1 Uhlan Bute, 10/1 Martial Law, 14/1 Bravo Bravo
14/1 Minella Special, 14/1 Quaddick Lake
16/1 Old Tricks, 20/1 Alder Mairi, 20/1 Dragon´s Den
33/1 Union Saint.

This 2m 4f Handicap Hurdle looks a little too
warm to be taken seriously. I looked at every
one of these races in January and in February.
Only 1 went to a 4 year old. Admittedly there
were only 14 that tried but several were very
short in the market and the only winner won
with a very short absence. AINSI FIDELES is
a 4yo absent 65 days and I'd see him unsafe
on heavy ground on a quality track in a large
field. Too big to lay but I'd like to oppose him
in any Match Bet. Trying to squeeze a couple
more negatives out. SHANTOU MAGIC comes
from a Grade 1 hurdle. Horses doing this did
not do well. They had a 3-64 record and the
three winners were all younger than him and
had less weight. SILSOL is hard to read and
his trainer must be respected but I don't think
a recent run on the Sand is a positive. I may
be wrong but he didn't convince me. There
are a lot of these impossible to rate and the
race could be too hard. My angles suggest I
should oppose the 4 year old AINSI FIDELES
and topweight SHANTOU MAGIC. I'd have to
guess for any selection. UHLAN BUTE is like
a winner and seems a reasonable choice at
a decent price in a race that is just too hard.



S o u t h w e l l 2.30

8/11 Staff Sergeant, 11/4 Summerfree
8/1 Gogeo, 14/1 Dazzling Valentine
20/1 Monzino, 25/1 Air Chief.

I think this is a match. I was looking for flaws
in STAFF SERGEANT's profile as I felt there is
a strong case for SUMMERFREE because there
is good evidence he hasn't been staying well
over longer distances. I decided it wasn't the
best idea to oppose STAFF SERGEANT after
his easy win last time out. I suppose there is
a case for SUMMERFREE each way even with
just 6 runners but I'd want a weaker favourite
so I don't want to oppose STAFF SERGEANT.

No Selection




W i n c a n t o n 2.40

5/2 Bennys Mist, 5/1 Bertie Boru, 5/1 Ultragold
7/1 Forgotten Gold, 7/1 Rouge Et Blanc
10/1 Carrickboy, 10/1 Coolking, 10/1 Requin
14/1 Webberys Dream.

* This is a 2m 5f Handicap Chase
* There are 140 similar races at this time of year
* REQUIN - I don't see him as fit enough
* ROUGE ET BLANC comes from 2m to 2m 5f
* I don't like him with 17 chase runs doing this
* He also has a career high mark
* COOLKING - I needed a better last run
* WEBBERYS DREAM - Unlikely to defy his absence
* CARRICKBOY - Unlikely he will bounce back to form
* ULTRAGOLD is a 6 year old
* I looked at 6yo's from Non Graded Handicap Chases
* There was a disappointing 2-35 record
* Neither winner came from 2m 6f or more like him
* Both winners had 1 and 3 chase runs
* ULTRAGOLD has 9. I wanted a better match

Shortlist

* FORGOTTEN GOLD - Average chance not for me

* BERTIE BORU just won a Novice Handicap chase
* Neutral profile. I'd see him more as a positive

* BENNYS MIST won a 2m 5f handicap chase last time out
* 8 year olds doing this had a 3-11 record
* They finished 2 W 2 2 W UR 4 2 3 3 W
* He has the best profile in the race

Selection

BENNYS MIST 9/4

Win Bet





S o u t h w e l l 3.00

5/4 Hunting Ground, 4/1 Masterful Act
7/1 Hanoverian Baron, 8/1 Dewala, 8/1 Icebuster
10/1 Presburg, 20/1 Flying Power.

If I look for Class 2 handicaps over 12f there are
only 15 of these in January and February hardly
enough to draw any strong conclusions. Despite
that I do like elements of this race and think we
should make some assumptions. The first is that
it is unlikely HANOVERIAN BARON will defy 111
days off the track as a 9 year old. ICEBUSTER's
never run here on Fibresand before and comes
from a sire that's 1-51 on fibresand. It does also
worry me that HUNTING GROUND is so short as
a horse that has just won an extended 2m race.
Yes he won easily but he comes down 4f in trip
which won't be easy and he has raced once in
only 110 days. This is where we need statistics
we don't have. None of the 15 winners dropped
from 14f or more but we need a bigger sample
size to find out how relevant that is and which
horses win with so few recent runs. I wouldn't
make him a negative given how well he won
last time but I am very uncomfortable with his
profile and given a short price I'm turning him
down. Only 2 winners of similar 12f races were
aged 4 anyway. There were 4 winners aged 7
or more so MASTERFUL ACT could be a better
value bet. He has a brilliant record here and
although you can argue he's badly treated off
a mark of 91 his Racing Post Ratings suggest
it might not be beyond him. He has generally
got a much safer profile than the favourite so
I feel he's a better bet at over twice the price.

Selection

MASTERFUL ACT 9/4

Win Bet



S o u t h w e l l 3.30

8/11 Elusive Hawk, 3/1 Spitfire
7/2 Arabian Flight, 20/1 Elusive Warrior.

This is a tiny field selling race over 7f. Ratings
suggest ELUSIVE WARRIOR is outclassed, The
official ratings also point to ELUSIVE HAWK a
horse that should hack up at these weights. I
can't bet a 10 year old at odds on that finished
last in his most recent race when having only
1 run in the past 138 days. He will probably go
and win but ARABIAN FLIGHT looks fitter and
much more attractive at the prices. I couldn't
rule out SPITFIRE so if I was suggesting a bet
I'd argue for a split stake bet. ARABIAN FLIGHT
and SPITFIRE 3/1 or better produces a winner
at evens and I'll take those over the favourite.

Selection

SPITFIRE 3/1 + Half Stake to win

ARABIAN FLIGHT 3/1 + Half Stake to win

****************************************************
****************************************************