No Account Bet

Today is the warm up message for Saturday after
I took the day off yesterday. The success or failure
of today's message will only be known tomorrow
as I have shortened today to spend more time on
Saturday and a race that I feel I can sort out. This
is a day where I have got bogged down with lots
of hard handicaps in past years without particular
success and it has always been a time consuming
message. I've decided to swerve some handicaps
I usually do today to find a proper bet tomorrow.

If we get a winner tomorrow from the work I did
last night then todays message will be a success.
Short as it is today it may still be a good message
as there are 3 races I like but none for a main bet.




T o d a y s M e s s a g e


It is a bit toothless today but the decision's been
made to back off today from races that haven't
served me well to strengthen tomorrow. I think
it has to be a no bet day but this is my best bet


Today's Best Bet

Newcastle 2.50

WOR LASS 5/1 Win Bet

TWO B's 4/1 Saver

Her profile is not trouble free but she brings the
right amount of fitness and experience to a race
and a track that really does demand that. I have
a few negatives in the race. The biggest danger
could be TWO B's and I am saving on him rather
than bet WOR LASS each way. I think that's best
just in case the selection doesn't stay the 2 miles.

The other two selections are probably best put
in an each way double. Only a modest bet here.

Newcastle 3.25 - TASMANIAN 6/4

Kilbeggan 4.35 - CAPTAIN CARLETON 9/4

Each Way Double






W e d n e s d a y s S u m m a r y

After account bets Monday and Tuesday I backed
off on Wednesday and kept the bets non-account.
My best bet Cocoon disappointed in 5th. I watched
the race and he was hampered and he may have
found Stall 2 a bigger problem than I'd envisaged.
Not sure how genuine he is but he looked like he
had a full tank of petrol and looked a horse much
better than his rating. He could yet be very smart.
It wasn't a great message. I was flagging a bit so
took Thursday off to prepare for the weekend bets.


P r o f i l e s @ P r e v i e w s


N e w c a s t l e 2.50

3/1 William Hogarth, 4/1 Two B´s, 5/1 Blue Top
5/1 Wor Lass, 8/1 Weybridge Light, 12/1 Claude Carter
12/1 Golden Future, 14/1 My Escapade, 20/1 Scrafton
25/1 I Am Who I Am, 25/1 Jebulani, 33/1 Secret Kode.

* This is a Low Grade 2m Handicap
* September has 70 of these Class 6 handicaps

* Horses aged 9 or more have struggled
* In 70 similar races they have a 0-58 record
* It just shows no advantage in being old in these races

* GOLDEN FUTURE is too old for me aged 11
* WILLIAM HOGARTH is 9 and fails that 0-58 statistic
* There were a couple winning in similar August races
* None though that came from 12f as he does
* His low numbers put me off as well
* He is clearly slow and has limitations
* WEYBRIDGE LIGHT is not safe aged 9 from hurdles
* SCRAFTON looks too inexperienced with 3 runs
* He has been well backed from an unfashionable yard
* I dislike the fact he has 1 run this season
* I hate the fact he comes from 10f doing just this
* His sire hasn't bred a winner over this far before
* Only 1 run this year I'll be surprised if he wins
* BLUE TOP definitely has a chance
* He tops the numbers and has won at the track
* I have two problems with him today
* He has a 7lbs lady rider on his back
* On paper she is the weakest rider in the race
* She's never ridden a winner beyond 10f yet either
* Secondly BLUE TOP has a 47 day absence
* He faces 11 opponents and 6 have run within 13 days
* I think that and the jockey count against him

Shortlist

* TWO B´S is a lightly raced 3yo
* Horses aged 3 coming from 14f or shorter
* Between 4-5-6 career starts
* Running between 10 and 16 days ago
* Beaten last time but by under 3 lengths
* Horses with this profile had a 2-9 record
* Thats a good profile but this is a tough track
* I don't want to get caught out on a track like this
* The 3 year old winners of this race had 15 8 8 runs
* TWO B´S only has 5 runs- not a lot here
* Newcastle have 18 of these Class 6 handicaps all year round
* No horse has won any of them with under 7 career starts
* Horses with under 7 career starts were 0-19 at this track
* Because of that I am not making TWO B´S the selection

* WOR LASS is a mare from a 12f race
* Not the safest profile in all similar races in September
* It has been done though and she has other qualities
* She is very fit and running well which counts for a lot
* Her Sire hasn't yet had a 2m winner but it's a matter of time
* Her record beyond 2m suggests a win won't be a big problem
* I think She offers the right amount of fitness and experience

Selection

WOR LASS 5/1

Each Way




N e w c a s t l e 3.25

13/8 Tasmanian, 2/1 Kiss Of Spring
9/4 Gleese The Devil, 20/1 Bulas Belle
20/1 Im Dapper Too, 33/1 Nonagon, 66/1 Mr Gatsby
100/1 Red Legacy.

This is a 2yo maiden over a mile and it looks to be
a three horse race. There is a reasonable case for
the each way bet on GLEESE THE DEVIL but I feel
that is unsafe. His trainer was discussing the horse
a few weeks ago when he was entered in another
maiden. He didn't run that day but he was clearly
saying that GLEESE THE DEVIL was mush more a
type for handicaps and on his 3rd start I would feel
unsafe with him. I think one of the big 2 will win it.

* KISS OF SPRING was 2nd at Ripon last time
* TASMANIAN was 3rd in the same race
* I think TASMANIAN will reverse the form
* He did so much wrong at Ripon and blew the start
* He looked very green and had trouble in running
* I wouldn't say he looked the most genuine of horses
* It could easily have been the track he hated
* If he had been ridden out he'd have been 3rd
* He could easily have finished ahead of Kiss Of Spring
* TASMANIAN should have more improvement
* KISS OF SPRING started her career for Charlie Hills
* She wasn't cheap but was sold after one run
* It would worry me he got rid of him so quickly
* TASMANIAN could and should have more scope

Selection

TASMANIAN 6/4

Win Bet



K i l b e g g a n 4.25

9/4 Captain Carleton, 5/2 Alileo, 4/1 Tiger Trek
10/1 Fellow Indian, 14/1 Captains Measure
14/1 Idontdalaay, 16/1 Hootie, 16/1 Master Bones
16/1 Tonius, 20/1 Mysticaltou, 25/1 Croker Island
33/1 Official Lady.

* This is a 2m Maiden Hurdle
* There are 76 of these races in August and September
* I looked at horses absent more than 5 months
* Horses aged 5 or more doing this were just 1-75
* It puts me off TIGER TREK absent 253 days
* ALILEO disappointed at odds on last time
* Strong stable but beaten by a 95 rated horse last time
* He couldn't beat a horse who was 0-9 over hurdles
* CAPTAIN CARLETON interests me more
* He is younger and has a 2 2 2 hurdle record
* He has the better jockey and looks stronger to me
* FELLOW INDIAN may not be out of this
* I don't think he stayed 2m 4f last time
* He could be suited to 2m and could easily frame
* CAPTAIN CARLETON has more hurdling experience
* I think he can take this race

Selection

CAPTAIN CARLETON 2/1

Win Bet


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